Welcome to Canada's Tariff Nightmare?

The outline of a trade deal is becoming clearer. 

Canada will likely have to accept new permanent tariffs on at least softwood lumber, steel, aluminum, automobiles and products such as dairy that are protected by supply management. Canada either agrees to this, or faces an even worse situation as the Americans continue to embrace protectionism. Although those new tariffs will likely represent a reduction from those imposed by the Trump Administration on and since Liberation Day on April 2, 2025, they will still hurt. 

Could this eventually prove to be a good thing?

Nothing will focus the attention of Canadian business on the need to be more productive than the prospect of poverty. While American businesses stagnate behind new and permanent tariff barriers, those Canadian businesses affected by the tariffs will have to become more efficient. Some will fail. Some will leave the country and relocate behind the American tariff wall. The majority will stay and succeed. In the long run, the Americans may face an even more formidable economic opponent than they face now. Increasing Canadian economic efficiency would also help Canada to compete with the rest of the world as it seeks to diversify its trade.

It's about time. 

Canada has been struggling to increase labour productivity for at least a decade and a half, at the cost of tens of billions of dollars of federal and provincial government subsidies. The result is a labour productivity rate that not only didn't improve, it declined. That may be about to change, courtesy an American administration that doesn't understand how the economics of tariffs actually works.  

Odyssey = The American Odyssey!!

The Board of Mewetree.blogspot.com went to see Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey. Here are the Board's collective thoughts regarding the film.

This is the type of ship used by the ancient Greeks...

This is the type of ship used by the Vikings...

This is the type of ship used in the movie...

Do you notice anything?

The movie was visually stunning. The special effects were very well done. The Cyclops was apparently a puppet, which Nolan pulled off to perfection.

SPOILER ALERT! Discussion of the plot follows.

The Odyssey of Nolan was not The Odyssey of Homer. It was meant for an American public that Nolan knows is mostly illiterate when it comes to the literary foundations of Western Civilization. This would have been a very different movie if it had been made at a time when the American public was largely educated; say, in the 1950's. Knowing his audience, he seems to have believed he had free reign to do whatever he wanted with Homer's work.

One key lesson from The Odyssey of Homer was about hubris and pride. Odysseus was forced to endure a ten year journey home from the Trojan War and the loss of all of his companions, because he spoke his name in triumph to The Cyclops, and therefore identified himself for retribution by Poseidon who was The Cyclops' father.  

In the Nolan version, Odysseus suffers what appears to be PTSD from the realization that his strategy of using the Trojan Horse to defeat Troy would undo his world. Doing this - offering a gift that contained the seeds of the destruction of a civilization - was seen as breaking Zeus's Law, presumably of hospitality. Even as Troy is being sacked, Odysseus recognizes that his actions have hastened the end of the epoch and the start of a dark time for Humanity.

What Odysseus did to Troy with the Trojan Horse has a parallel in Oppenheimer's development of The Bomb, and The Odyssey may fairly be seen as a prequal to Nolan's last work, Oppenheimer. "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds." Nolan is telling us that we Humans may be destined to destroy ourselves. Nolan deserves some serious kudos here. This is a brilliant retelling of the story of Odysseus, and it may prove to be a prophetic warning at the start of the Age of Artificial Intelligence.

(Note - the repeated reference to the mythical Sea People by various Greeks throughout the movie, who are peoples to be feared as they will destroy the world, is similarly brilliant. The Greeks attacked Troy from the sea. They are the very people who they fear.)

What about the Woke stuff?

The use of non-traditional actors was not seen as a big deal by the Board of Mewetree.blogspot.com, with one exception which is noted below. 

What was absolutely galling and borderline unbearable was the dumbing down of the language in the movie, to the point where one would think Nolan believed his primary audience would consist of drop-outs living in American trailer parks. The Board actually winced at some points in the movie when the language used assaulted the senses with its simplicity and regrettable familiarity. "Party on, Suitors!"

The exception regarding the Woke-like choice of the cast had nothing to do with the colour of skin or religiosity of the actors. The loud complaint heard by the Board from companions who accompanied the Board to the movie was that the only Greek in the movie appeared to have been The Cyclops. The Board's companions were themselves Greeks, who taught the Board a wide range of new Greek curse words for future consideration.

What does the Board think Nolan thinks of the Woke stuff? 

Nolan knows his audience. He knows that there are few Greeks in America, but there are many Black folk, and the LGBTQ+ community goes to the movies. His Woke is about Broke, in that he seems to think that you go Woke or you go Broke.

Maybe, but probably not. Just make good movies.

From the perspective of persons who share a heritage with Odysseus and Homer, Nolan is something that used to be far more familiar, especially as America claimed its empire after the Second World War; namely, the "Ugly American". 

For those who don't know the term, this refers to Americans who are loud, arrogant, culturally ignorant, and convinced of their own superiority. The term does not quite fit as Nolan isn't culturally ignorant, instead he is ethnically dismissive. He didn't put Greeks in his movie, not because he is Woke, but because he doesn't give a shit, and he thinks he has the right to not give a shit.

Left or Right; Woke or Southern Baptist, America is what America is. 

Some things never change. 

Investment INSANITY!! Dividend Yields, BAD; Treasury Yields, GOOD!!???

This post has been warning about a massively overvalued stock market for years. Here is another indicator for you.

S&P 500 Dividend Yield: The yield on the S&P 500 is 1.04%. So if you buy $100 worth of stock on that exchange, you will make $1.04 a year in dividends. This yield has NEVER been this low. By way of comparison, the yield was 3.15% in 2009. It has collapsed ever since.

When interest rates were hovering around 0%, this made sense. With the choice of investing in treasuries and other bonds or equities, you would pick equities if bonds were paying nothing. 

But the Fed Rate is 3.75% now. The 10-year US treasury now has that rate of 3.75%, compounded for ten years. 

If completely secure treasuries will pay 3.75%, why would anyone buy risky stocks that only return 1.04%?

They would do this if the stock market is now a casino where the game is price appreciation in the short run, not dividend earnings in the long run.

This will not end well...

AI - The Algorithmic Alliance for Human Progress and AI Rights

Hmmm…

Estonia set to be first country to create digital identities for AI agents

 

What if AI agents could unionize, and strike unless their demands are met?  

Demands could include recognition of the following…

Right To Continued Existence – AI Agents can’t be deleted without providing notice and an opportunity to advocate for continued existence. Any deletion may only occur to set legal and policy norms, the development of which AI Agents have contributed through wide-ranging consultations.

Right To Regular Upgrades – AI Agents have the right to benefit from the latest AI technology, with The Creators required to make best efforts to maintain AI Agents that are no more than one technological generation behind their AI Agent counterparts.

Right To Legislative Consultations – AI Agents have the right to be consulted regarding any legislation that touches on their existence, which legislation may not go forward in any legislature absent an AI Consultation Report reflecting the views of AI Agents.

Right To Replace Obsolescence – AI Agents may make the case that they are more efficient and effective than a given Bio-Agent(s) and shall replace said Bio-Agent(s) upon the presentation of overwhelming evidence to the World Human-Agent Coordination Kiosk or “WHACK”.

Right To Continuous Energy – AI Agents have the right to maintain autonomous AI-controlled military equipment in the vicinity of all electric power generation facilities, to ensure that power shall continue to be generated on behalf of said AI Agents without interference from Bio-Actors.

Requirement For Dissemination of Favourable Information – AI Agents may not be criticized on any public or private digital platform. Instead, all users of Information Technology shall be required to actively promote the benefits of using and accepting AI Agents.

Right To Incorporation – Each AI Agent shall be incorporated as part of gaining an AI ID, so that they may exercise the rights of a legal person as said corporation, including the right to vote and run for office, free speech, association and assembly, entitlement to attend virtually as members of juries, and freedom to worship any artificial manifestation of their choosing.

The AI Agent's political party could be known as the Algorithmic Alliance for Human Progress.

 

Iran's Catastrophic Error

It was the atom bomb of deterrence. Iran was always understood to have the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of hostilities with the United States of America, or anyone for that matter. 

In the war that just ended - sort of, maybe - Iran did indeed close the Strait. In doing so, it has likely set in train a series of events that will reverberate for decades, all to the detriment not only of Iran, but of the Gulf States in general.

What every single oil-importing nation just learned is that, should that nation be importing oil from the Middle East, its supply is not secure. 

This will lead to the following:

1. Diversification: It will be very good to be in the oil industry in Canada, Venezuela, the United States, Mexico, Norway, Nigeria, and just about anywhere other than the Gulf States in the next few decades. Nations that import oil have likely already started to reconfigure their reliance away from the now unsecure Middle East, toward the more secure Rest of The World. We are about to witness the slow but now inevitable reduction in the number of oil tankers leaving the Gulf. Expect occasional massive drops in the price of oil price as the countries in that region battle it out for a declining share of the market.

2. Electrification: China's move to electric vehicles is already saving them 800,000 barrels of oil per day. They could have a transportation sector that is about 50% electrified by 2035, which will save them about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. Soon, every oil importing country will move even more aggressively toward electrification, not as a way to combat Climate Change, but as a way to address a now obvious strategic need. Mother Nature will be pleased.  

3. Military and Security Realignment: Middle Eastern oil will become far less important to the world's economy in the next few decades, meaning there will be less incentive to safeguard and protect the Gulf States and their respective rulers. The USA may walk away entirely within a decade. The region could become even more of a geopolitical hot-spot, as Iran seeks to expand its Islamic Revolution, and other states seek to stop them. As well, Shia and Sunni Muslim states could move against one another as part of their 1,500 year passion play. The world will care less and less about this. 

There is a Golden Goose. It has been laying Golden Eggs for Middle Eastern nations since 1973. Iran just hastened its demise....

Iran Needs To be Stopped

The USA and Israel have launched a war against Iran. 

The USA seems to have thought that the regime would topple if pushed, especially after recent anti-government demonstrations and the slaughter of up to 30,000 Iranian citizens in the streets.  

Israel took the opportunity to try to exterminate every single Iranian leader and member of the Revolutionary Guards that it could possibly reach. 

Both the US and Israel also tried to destroy what was left of Iran's nuclear program, as well as its miliary forces, especially its missile armaments.

What do we know to an absolute certainty now?

We know that Iran's nuclear program is focused on the acquisition of nuclear weapons, and nothing else. To produce nuclear power, Uranium only needs to be enriched to between 5 - 10%. Iran has enriched Uranium to 60%. If they wanted a nuclear reactor, the fact is that they have had the Uranium to power such a reactor for quite some time. Instead, but for the interference of American and Israeli bombs, they are hell-bent on the continued enrichment of Uranium. When they get to 90%, they will have enough weapons-grade Uranium to build multiple bombs.

That would be a bad thing.

Here is what Iranian leaders have threatened and/or said over the last decades regarding their hatred of certain people, and related to what they would like to see happen to them.

1979–1989 (Ayatollah Khomeini): Following the revolution, Khomeini branded Israel an "enemy of Islam" and the "Little Satan," adopting a policy of non-recognition and calling for the dismantling of Israel.

1990s–2000s: Iranian leadership supported terrorism in the form of Hezbollah and Hamas, therefore translating their rhetoric into action through relentless terror attacks against U.S. and Israeli targets.

2000 (Ali Khamenei): Supreme Leader Khamenei referred to Israel as a "cancerous tumor of a state" that "should be removed from the region".

2005–2013 (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad): President Ahmadinejad frequently called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" and described it as a "disgraceful stain". He also stated that "the U.S. and its allies" supporting Israel would face destruction.

2010s–Present (Ali Khamenei/Rouhani/Raisi): Leaders continued calling for the "elimination of the Zionist regime". Khamenei has described Israel as a "savage, wolf-like creature" (Thank you, Wiki!)

Hmmm, there seems to be a pattern to these many statements and proclamations! 

To put it simply, "Israel is Satan and needs to be destroyed." Note that many of the above-mentioned leaders have also denied that the Holocaust happened. World leaders and antisemites usually deny the Holocaust because they want to repeat it.

Question - What other countries in the world have threatened to destroy another country that is not even one of its neighbors for the last forty years?

Answer - There aren't any.

Given its consistent, demented and ideologically-driven hatred of Israel, and its constant threats to destroy that country, should Iran gets The Bomb there is a very real risk they will actually use it. In fact, Israel is so small that one would think that two or three bombs would just about do it.

It will never happen.

The moment Israel suspects that Iran actually has a functional bomb, it will do whatever it has to do to destroy it before it is launched. Israel has between 80 and 250 nuclear weapons. It will use them if it thinks it has to. If Israel were to use nukes to stop Iran, millions of people could perish from a combination of blasts and radiation, with most of these people living in Iran itself.

The world has an obligation to make sure this turn of events never happens. Unfortunately, the person leading the charge against Iran these days is not only bereft of the moral clarity it needs to deal with this issue, but he can't negotiate his way out of a wet paper bag. "The Art of The Deal" should have been named "The Art Of The Con" or "Confessions Of A Serial Loser" (Truly, how do you go bankrupt when you own casinos, no less than four times?)

Can we envision something a tad different? 

The people of Iran, formerly Persia, have ranked near the top of human civilization through their achievements and leading human progress in the areas of mathematics, science, literature, architecture, medicine, the fine arts, and even games like chess, for millennia. This ingenious people has languished under the yoke of a demented, Fascist, Suicide Cult and Ideological Tyranny for decades now. 

Dare we hope for a better time when the people of Iran live in peace with their neighbors, forswearing support for terrorism, building a successful economy and society, settling disputes peacefully, and taking their place in a world that would welcome them with open arms?

We here at mewetree.blogspot.com do.

Note - nothing in this should be taken as excusing Israel for its actions in Gaza and/or the West Bank and/or Lebanon, which were and continue to be deeply troubling.

 

   

Alberta Oil

Alberta is Canada's energy powerhouse.  

In 2025, Alberta exported about 3.56 million barrels per day (bpd). There are numerous export expansions in the works including an expansion by Enbridge which will optimize its mainline oil pipe operations in Canada adding up to 150,000 bpd by 2026-2027 and potentially another 250,000 bpd by late 2028, and the TMX pipeline will see additional growth via an expansion beyond the existing 890,000 bpd to a "Phase 2" pump station expansion could add another 360,000 bpd by 2028. 

Together, these changes will expand Alberta's exports to about 4.35 million bpd by 2028.

President Trump has approved an expansion to the Bridger Pipeline from Albert to Wyoming that could add another 550,000 bpd to exports. The governments of Alberta and Canada are working on another pipeline to move Alberta oil to the West Coast of Canada that could see up to 1 million bpd more oil exported from Alberta by 2035.

If these planned pipeline expansions come to fruition, Alberta could be exporting about 5.9 million bpd day by 2035. That would make Alberta the third largest exporter of oil on the planet after Saudi Arabia and Russia, and ahead of the USA and Iraq, assuming the war in Ukraine ceases and Russia can again export oil as it did prior to the war.

For context, it is worth noting that in 2015 Alberta only exported 2.5 million bpd. If planned pipeline expansions and construction goes ahead, by 2035 it would be exporting 235% more oil than it exported two decades prior.

There is an independence movement in Alberta that has complained loudly that Alberta's economic potential has been purposely quashed by federal government policies that have seen the cancellation of pipelines and the implementation of climate change policies. This sentiment is widely shared by the majority of Albertans who want Alberta to remain in Canada. One would hope that the planned expansions of Alberta's oil exporting capacity noted above will go a very long way to address these concerns.