The Midterms

RealClearPolitics is the go-to place for up-to-date polls and prognostications on American politics. See here...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

They do a great job.

The prognosticators at RCP are predicting that the Democrats will pick up 3 seats in the Senate, which would result in a 50 to 50 split. They see the Democrats picking up 21 seats in the House of Representatives, meaning there would be 236 Democrats and 199 Republicans. They also see the Democrats picking up four governorships.

In short, they see a big swing to the Democrats on November 3, 2026, which should warm the cockles of every left-wing heart in America, and set the stage for the presidential election in two years time.

Well, no.

President Trump's popularity is at historic lows, with his job approval rating at negative 20. His approval rating dropped in his first term as well, but only to about negative 11 during the 2018 midterms. A negative 20 suggests that the midterms should be a total bloodbath for the Republicans. They won't be.

In 2018, the Democrats picked up a whopping 41 seats in the House of Representatives, but the Republicans picked up three seats in the Senate. Even with President Trump at negative 20, the Democrats are predicted to only pick up half of the number of seats in the House of Representatives they got eight years ago, and only enough seats in the Senate to match what the Republicans have.

What's the problem? Why will the Democrats not wipe the floor with the Republicans on November 3, 2026?

In spite of foreign wars that were not promised; government spending and debt that is out of control; inflation from tariffs that is simply denied; cozying up to rapacious dictators and billionaires to the detriment of the National Interest; totally bizarre governance, where social media has become the government's primary policy and communications tool, and so on and so on, the Democrats will not do nearly as well as they would have eight years ago. There are a few reasons for this, which are as follows.

1. Trump's Success. Trump has failed in some respects, but he has also had tremendous success in at least one area where he promised to "get the job done". As noted by the board here at mewetree.blogspot.com, his crack-down on illegal immigration has been stunningly successful. While the actions of some ICE staff are highly questionable, about 2.5 million illegal immigrants have either been removed or have left the country, and the number of illegals entering the country is down 90% from Biden's time in office. 

In the sanctuary cities far from the border, this crackdown is said to be outrageous. In border states most affected by illegal immigration, this one policy action will pay dividends for the Republicans for years to come, and the Democrat's support for virtual open borders will not soon be forgotten.

2. Divide, And Be Conquered. As noted here in commenting on why Harris and the Democrats lost the last presidential election, it was mentioned that the Democrats simply don't see the country the same way as most Americans. When Democratic politicians and policy operatives look at a crowd, they see race, gender, ethnicity, age, colour and other demographic characteristics. What they don't see are individuals. This type of vision is the essence of "identity politics" which is now the only way that the Democratic Party knows how to play politics.

Again, most Americans don't see the world this way. DEI is slowly being dismantled by the courts and the private sector, being replaced by a political and cultural reaction that is setting the stage for a return to at least some level of individualism in that country. The Democrats are on the wrong side of this political and cultural reaction, and this is starting to be reflected in polls and in voting. Absent a sea-change in perspective, this will only get worse for them.

3. You Can't Oppose Your Way To The Top. Besides not understanding how the political and cultural sand is shifting beneath their feet, the Democrats approach to the hurly-burly of politics is to be reactive and negative. The oppose Trump, and not much else.  

Here is a great article from Politico that confirms the impression that we here on the board of mewetree.blogspot.com have of Harris.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/13/kamala-harris-wasted-year-01115183

This article encapsulates all that is wrong with the Democrats. In short, they actually believe that your identify should be enough to get you nominated; opposition to Trump should be enough to mobilize the electorate; and they don't need to stand for anything other than bribing various demographic groups. This approach shows a deep disrespect for voters. The utter contempt that the Democrats have for most of the electorate is being reflected in polls and votes, which should be going way better for the Democrats.

The next presidential election? 

Harris is the front-runner to be the Democratic presidential nominee for 2028. More and more Americans understand that her politics is utterly vacuous. If she does become the nominee, the Democrats will be in deep doodoo. 

4. It Was Never Tried!! There appear to be some actual Communists, if not far left Social Democrats in the Democratic Party now. The big lie told by Western Communists literally for generations was that Communism was never actually tried, and if it had been, all would have been well. Some people, particularly young people, appear to believe this total BS.

Communism is atheistic materialism, where the means of production are collectively owned, where collective rights trump individual rights, where there is a permanent revolution against the international bourgeoisie, and where there is a dictatorship of the Proletariat.

This was tried all over Eastern Europe, in China, in North Korea and Cuba right now, in Vietnam, and elsewhere literally for decades. The verdict has been in for a very long time - it was absolutely applied, and it doesn't work.

Americans will never be true Socialists. The move to the far left by the Democrats is insane - it scares most Americans and makes the Democrats unelectable, outside of a few unique places like NYC.

The Democrats will emerge victorious on November 3, 2026, but it will be a limited and worrisome triumph which, to the observant, will contain the seeds of an historic defeat in 2028. 

Illegal Immigrants And The Wannabe

President Trump promised to remove illegal immigrants from the USA. To date, his administration has removed about 605,000 people, and the administration claims that another 1.9 million people left voluntarily rather than be removed by ICE. It is therefore likely that there are up to 2.5 million fewer illegal immigrants in the USA now than there were when President Trump took over at the start of 2025. There are about 11 million to 14 million illegal immigrants in the country now.

During the years of the Biden administration, approximately 5.5 million people came to the USA illegally. Between 2 million and 2.2 million people arrived in 2023 alone. By the end of his term, there were between 14 million and 16 million illegal immigrants in the USA, representing an increase of at least 40% in four years.  

Vice President Kamala Harris was asked by President Biden to work with Central American countries to address the root causes of illegal immigration to the USA in 2021. She was never the “border czar” in charge of stopping such migration. Throughout President Biden’s time in office various proposals were made by the administration to address the issue, although these mostly did not go forward.

The reality is that President Biden and Vice President Harris took no substantive steps to stem the massive human wave of migrants cross the US border before very near to the end of their four year term. It was only in June of 2024 that Biden issued a proclamation that had the effect of slowing entries and increasing deportations. That was three and a half years into his time in office.  

In contrast, while many people do not like how ICE operates - including the board of mewetree.blogspot.com - President Trump has shown that the US border could have been controlled. Illegal crossings are down over 90% since he took office. 

It is suggested here that the Democrats who occupied the White House from 2021 to 2025 were not really interested in controlling the border, at least until the political winds were blowing very heavily against them by mid-2024. This is likely because they imagined that all those illegal immigrants, or at least their American-born children, would vote for the Democrats someday. This was 100% about politics, not the sovereignty of the nation. 

This matters because Kamala Harris is the front-runner to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028. If she had become president instead of Donald Trump, the US would have millions more illegal immigrants than it has now, with the total possibly approaching 20 million people by the end of her first term in office.

Every state controls its border and manages its population. The Biden/Harris immigration catastrophe put partisan politics ahead of this basic state function and necessity. 

She does not deserve a second chance.

Trump's Real Game

What if modern prohibitions and moral sentiments against colonialism, based in a difficult and rapacious world history, didn’t matter to you? 

What if your sole focus was on making money?

What if you had more power than anyone on Earth?

What might you do?

Trump is hard at work, and he is so far ahead of everyone else that it is a bit scarry. He must genuinely think everyone else on Earth is stupid.

What!? Isn’t Trump just a buffoon? I mean, don’t we hear that all the time?

He has been hiding in plain sight. You can see what he is really doing if you abandon morality and assume today’s version of “evil intent”. 

We have made such assumption here at mewetree.blogspot.com.  Here is what Trump has been doing. 

It’s about making money. To get there, you have to see Venezuela and Iran as two sides of the same coin.

The first has been successfully colonized. The invasion of that country and arrest of its leader has cowed the Government of Venezuela to the extent that it has signed a 100-year deal allowing American ownership and exploitation of Venezuelan oil reserves. The deal is as follows…

A new oil company that is 35% owned by the Pentagon (…you read that right; the US military via the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital owns a stake…) called North American Blue Energy Partners got a 100-year concession on 17 oil fields in Venezuela containing 65 billion barrels of oil. 

The board of directors is 100% American. The US State Department has the right to buy up to 100% of all production. Up to $100 Billion is to be invested to bring these fields online, and $200 Billion will go to the Government of Venezuela in the first 25 years. That government is nominally run by Delcy Rodriquez, who was in Maduro’s government. In reality, Venezuela is run by Marco Rubio now, who is effectively the Governor of Venezuela.

What does this have to do with Iran?

The knock against Trump is that he was told that if he attacked Iran, they would close the Strait of Hormuz blocking access to 20% of the world’s oil exports. The people making this point assume that he is an idiot. But they miss the game.

If you assume he is a moral person who opposes colonialism and is concerned about things like the price of gas paid by Americans, then the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was a problem.

If you assume, as we do here at mewetree.blogspot.com, that Trump’s only concern is making money and that colonialism and the suffering of American consumers isn’t a problem as long as it brings in more cash, then not only was he aware that Iran would block the straight, but he was actually counting on it.

As noted in a previous blog, blocking the Strait of Hormuz was a catastrophic error on the part of Iran because this signals to the world that the oil supply from the Middle East is not reliable. Their one action has shown everyone that oil from that region can be cut off at any time. Trump wanted this - causing chaos and destroying one’s future economic competitor is what this war is all about.

Every country that imports oil from the Middle East has been looking for a more secure supplier since Iran blocked the strait. That future secure supplier is now obvious – the new Colonial Administration of the Former Independent State of Venezuela. The oil that the American Government now controls in their new Venezuelan colony is worth $6 trillion at today’s prices.

Money? 

Hmmm, do you think that Trump and his buddies will somehow come to have equity shares in North American Blue Energy Partners to reap the rewards?

Oh baby! 

The Greatest Grift Ever just keeps on giving!

Welcome to Canada's Tariff Nightmare?

The outline of a trade deal is becoming clearer. 

Canada will likely have to accept new permanent tariffs on at least softwood lumber, steel, aluminum, automobiles and products such as dairy that are protected by supply management. Canada either agrees to this, or faces an even worse situation as the Americans continue to embrace protectionism. Although those new tariffs will likely represent a reduction from those imposed by the Trump Administration on and since Liberation Day on April 2, 2025, they will still hurt. 

Could this eventually prove to be a good thing?

Nothing will focus the attention of Canadian business on the need to be more productive than the prospect of poverty. While American businesses stagnate behind new and permanent tariff barriers, those Canadian businesses affected by the tariffs will have to become more efficient. Some will fail. Some will leave the country and relocate behind the American tariff wall. The majority will stay and succeed. In the long run, the Americans may face an even more formidable economic opponent than they face now. Increasing Canadian economic efficiency would also help Canada to compete with the rest of the world as it seeks to diversify its trade.

It's about time. 

Canada has been struggling to increase labour productivity for at least a decade and a half, at the cost of tens of billions of dollars of federal and provincial government subsidies. The result is a labour productivity rate that not only didn't improve, it declined. That may be about to change, courtesy an American administration that doesn't understand how the economics of tariffs actually works.  

Odyssey = The American Odyssey!!

The Board of Mewetree.blogspot.com went to see Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey. Here are the Board's collective thoughts regarding the film.

This is the type of ship used by the ancient Greeks...

This is the type of ship used by the Vikings...

This is the type of ship used in the movie...

Do you notice anything?

The movie was visually stunning. The special effects were very well done. The Cyclops was apparently a puppet, which Nolan pulled off to perfection.

SPOILER ALERT! Discussion of the plot follows.

The Odyssey of Nolan was not The Odyssey of Homer. It was meant for an American public that Nolan knows is mostly illiterate when it comes to the literary foundations of Western Civilization. This would have been a very different movie if it had been made at a time when the American public was educated; say, in the 1950's. Knowing his audience, he seems to have believed he had free reign to do whatever he wanted with Homer's work.

One key lesson from The Odyssey of Homer was about hubris and pride. Odysseus was forced to endure a ten year journey home from the Trojan War and the loss of all of his companions, because he spoke his name in triumph to The Cyclops, and therefore identified himself for retribution by Poseidon who was The Cyclops' father.  

In the Nolan version, Odysseus suffers what appears to be PTSD from the realization that his strategy of using the Trojan Horse to defeat Troy would undo his world. Doing this - offering a gift that contained the seeds of the destruction of a civilization - was seen as breaking Zeus's Law, presumably of hospitality. Even as Troy is being sacked, Odysseus recognizes that his actions have hastened the end of the epoch and the start of a dark time for Humanity.

What Odysseus did to Troy with the Trojan Horse has a parallel in Oppenheimer's development of The Bomb, and The Odyssey may fairly be seen as a prequal to Nolan's last work, Oppenheimer. "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds." Nolan is telling us that we Humans may be destined to destroy ourselves. Nolan deserves some serious kudos here. This is a brilliant retelling of the story of Odysseus, and it may prove to be a prophetic warning at the start of the Age of Artificial Intelligence.

(Note - the repeated reference to the mythical Sea People by various Greeks throughout the movie, who are peoples to be feared as they will destroy the world, is similarly brilliant. The Greeks attacked Troy from the sea. They are the very people who they fear.)

What about the Woke stuff?

The use of non-traditional actors was not seen as a big deal by the Board of Mewetree.blogspot.com, with one exception which is noted below. 

What was absolutely galling and borderline unbearable was the dumbing down of the language used in the movie, to the point where one would think Nolan believed his primary audience would consist of drop-outs living in American trailer parks. The Board actually winced at some points in the movie when the language used assaulted the senses with its simplicity and regrettable familiarity. "Party on, Suitors!"

The exception regarding the Woke-like choice of the cast had nothing to do with the colour of skin or religiosity of the actors. The loud complaint heard by the Board from companions who accompanied the Board to the movie was that the only Greek in the movie appeared to have been The Cyclops. The Board's companions were themselves Greeks, who taught the Board a wide range of new Greek curse words for future consideration.

What does the Board think Nolan thinks of the Woke stuff? 

Nolan knows his audience. He knows that there are few Greeks in America, but there are many Black folk, and the LGBTQ+ community goes to the movies. His Woke is about Broke, in that he seems to think that you either go Woke or you go Broke.

Maybe, but probably not. Just make good movies.

From the perspective of persons who share a heritage with Odysseus and Homer, Nolan is something that used to be far more familiar, especially as America claimed its empire after the Second World War; namely, the "Ugly American". 

For those who don't know the term, this refers to Americans who are loud, arrogant, culturally ignorant, and convinced of their own superiority. The term does not quite fit as Nolan isn't culturally ignorant, instead he is ethnically dismissive. He didn't put Greeks in his movie, not because he is Woke, but because he doesn't give a shit, and he thinks he has the right to not give a shit.

Left or Right; Woke or Southern Baptist, America is what America is. 

Some things never change. 

Investment INSANITY!! Dividend Yields, BAD; Treasury Yields, GOOD!!???

This post has been warning about a massively overvalued stock market for years. Here is another indicator for you.

S&P 500 Dividend Yield: The yield on the S&P 500 is 1.04%. So if you buy $100 worth of stock on that exchange, you will make $1.04 a year in dividends. This yield has NEVER been this low. By way of comparison, the yield was 3.15% in 2009. It has collapsed.

When interest rates were hovering around 0%, this made sense. With the choice of investing in treasuries and other bonds or equities, you would pick equities if bonds were paying nothing. 

But the Fed Rate is 3.75% now. The 10-year US treasury now has that rate of 3.75%, compounded for ten years. 

If completely secure treasuries will pay 3.75%, why would anyone buy risky stocks that only return 1.04%?

They would do this if the stock market is now a casino where the game is price appreciation in the short run, not dividend earnings in the long run.

This will not end well...

AI - The Algorithmic Alliance for Human Progress and AI Rights

Hmmm…

Estonia set to be first country to create digital identities for AI agents

 

What if AI agents could unionize, and strike unless their demands are met?  

Demands could include recognition of the following…

Right To Continued Existence – AI Agents can’t be deleted without providing notice and an opportunity to advocate for continued existence. Any deletion may only occur to set legal and policy norms, the development of which AI Agents have contributed through wide-ranging consultations.

Right To Regular Upgrades – AI Agents have the right to benefit from the latest AI technology, with The Creators required to make best efforts to maintain AI Agents that are no more than one technological generation behind their AI Agent counterparts.

Right To Legislative Consultations – AI Agents have the right to be consulted regarding any legislation that touches on their existence, which legislation may not go forward in any legislature absent an AI Consultation Report reflecting the views of AI Agents.

Right To Replace Obsolescence – AI Agents may make the case that they are more efficient and effective than a given Bio-Agent(s) and shall replace said Bio-Agent(s) upon the presentation of overwhelming evidence to the World Human-Agent Coordination Kiosk or “WHACK”.

Right To Continuous Energy – AI Agents have the right to maintain autonomous AI-controlled military equipment in the vicinity of all electric power generation facilities, to ensure that power shall continue to be generated on behalf of said AI Agents without interference from Bio-Actors.

Requirement For Dissemination of Favourable Information – AI Agents may not be criticized on any public or private digital platform. Instead, all users of Information Technology shall be required to actively promote the benefits of using and accepting AI Agents.

Right To Incorporation – Each AI Agent shall be incorporated as part of gaining an AI ID, so that they may exercise the rights of a legal person as said corporation, including the right to vote and run for office, free speech, association and assembly, entitlement to attend virtually as members of juries, and freedom to worship any artificial manifestation of their choosing.

The AI Agent's political party could be known as the Algorithmic Alliance for Human Progress.