Sunday 29 November 2015

Conspiracies Too!

A list of conspiracy theories that are not true.

1. 9/11 was an Inside Job.  It is possible that the US Government knew something was imminent before 9/11 and did little to stop it.  It is impossible that 9/11 was planned and executed by the US Government.  If you think this was the case, Google Chomsky on 9/11.



2. There are UFOs, specifically, aliens are watching us.  Have you ever noticed that those aliens seem to always appear in the late evening, usually when someone is driving home from a bar, and almost only in the USA?  Do they not appear to people in other countries, and at all hours of the day and night because they are American aliens who are holding down jobs during the day?


3.  Elvis is Still Alive.  Nope - he died, although his music lives on.  If he were alive, someone would have seen him at some point in the last 38 years.



4. AIDS was manufactured in a lab, and introduced for the express purpose of killing Black people and Homosexuals.  Maybe it WAS manufactured, but the suggestion that its purpose was killing Black people and Homosexuals is beyond insane.  How did this nasty person know who would have sex with whom once the pathogen was released?



5. The Americans did not Land on the Moon.  Yes, they did.  If they had faked this, someone would have blabbed at some point in the last 46 years.



6. Autism comes from vaccinations.  There was a claimed connection between vaccinations and autism in the British medical journal Lancet at one point that has been repudiated and withdrawn owing to academic fraud. The connection is entirely unproven.  Where autism does come from is a legitimate question, however.



7. Global Warming was invented by former Communists after they lost the Cold War as a new way to seek world domination.  This isn;t hard.  Humans add 100 million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide to the world's atmosphere every single day, over and above what is added by Mother Nature.  It is inconceivable that adding that much carbon to the atmosphere has no effect on the climate.  The change is all around for everyone to see if they care to look.


8. The Holocaust didn't happen, but was invented by Jews to assist in their attempt to obtain World Domination.  It is not clear how claiming to have been slaughtered in a planned killing on an industrial scale leads to world domination.  A simple review of how many Jewish people were in Europe in 1939 compared to 1945, coupled with the Nazi philosophy on race should suffice to put this theory to bed...without even mentioning the literally hundreds of thousands of eyewitnesses who saw what happened and lived to pay witness to this insanity.  The point of denial is hopeful repetition.









Friday 27 November 2015

Conspiracies Abound!

A list of current conspiracy theories, and a few oldies, which may, with time, prove to be correct.

1. Gold.  The price of Gold is purposely manipulated to keep the price down.  This is accomplished by the slow leakage of the world's Gold reserves into the world's Gold market, with large and powerful countries cowing smaller nations into giving up their Gold one at a time to feed the manipulation. This point of this manipulation is to prevent a flight from paper currency to Gold during the greatest period of money printing in history.

Proofs - 1. Country after country, from Ukraine to Venezuela, have been surrendering their Gold reserves to the USA.  2. Obvious manipulation in the form of literally hundreds of tonnes of Gold dumped in the shorts market the minute that trading opens in the East - this was the cause of the one day price collapse in April, 2013.



2. The USA, Israel and Others Subtly Support ISIL.  The reason they are doing this is to create a counter to Iran, which seems primed to take a major geopolitical role in the Middle East.  The long term goal is to create a Sunni state in North West Iraq that will form a buffer between Israel and Iran.    

Proofs - ISIL could be destroyed in a week if the West really wanted to do it.  ISIL makes hundreds of millions of dollars off oil sales every year.  Without this cash, it could completely collapse.  This trade could be stopped by simply bombing the tanker trucks taking the contraband out of ISIL's territory, for sale by transit through the territory of our allies - Turkey, Iraq, and Kurdistan.



3.  Data Manipulation/The Age of Propaganda.  From Chinese GDP, to US employment numbers, nothing coming from governments can be believed.  Every government has perfected communications to the detriment of content, and with the goal of out and out lies.

Proofs - Chinese economic data claims are contradicted by neutral data points, like the freight indexes which suggest that China's trade has plummeted and it may actually be in a recession.  Looking behind the data from the US Government often tells a completely different story from the headlines.


4.  JFK:  There was more than one shooter, and the President was killed as a result of a conspiracy, possibly including the Mob, the CIA, the US Fed, and/or the Russians.  The US Government knows who did it.

Proofs - The official US Government position since the 1970's has been that JFK was assassinated as a result of a conspiracy.  Who these people were has not been revealed....yet.




5. 9/11:  The US Government knew that the 9/11 attack was imminent, but did nothing to stop it in the hopes it would spark support for war, especially against Saddam Hussein.

Proofs - The perpetrators of 9/11 were not from Iraq, and Iraq was not involved.  The countries from where the attackers came - Saudi Arabia and Egypt - are US allies.  The precedents are Pearl Harbor, and the Gulf of Tonkin Incident.



6. Hitler did not die during WW2:  Hitler escaped Berlin as the Soviets closed in and retired to Argentina and Brazil after WW2, where he worked as a barber until his death in 1993.

Proofs - Remnants of the corpse that was supposed to be Hitler burned outside of the Bunker are available, but no one has ever taken a DNA sample.  Proving the corpse actually was Hitler would actually be easy, but no one has done it because the WW2 allies all know it wasn't him.

Thursday 19 November 2015

Tome II - The Return of Tome

Charts you need to see.


The World’s Equity Markets:


Only the NASDAQ has moved above its July highs in the recent market appreciation.  This suggests that we may be witnessing the dreaded “dead cat bounce”, and that the market has reached a peak. The impending rise in US interest rates could see first a rise and then serious drop in markets - this is exactly what happened when everyone thought rates would rise in September.  We shall see.


mv 16.11.15 1


The Q-Ratio is the total price of the market, divided by the replacement cost of all companies.  It should be about 0.68 to reflect historic valuations.  If it rises above this it signifies market overvaluation.  It is now at 1.04, close to the value at the start of the Great Depression, for example.
Q Ratio


World Trade:


The China Containerized Freight Index, and the Baltic Dry Index are measures of the movement of world trade.  The more demand there is to move freight, the higher the index.  These indices have fallen off dramatically in the last six months suggesting a significant slowdown in world economic activity.  This also explains the Chinese currency devaluation last summer, where they were obviously trying to recapture lost trade through a lower currency.




US Unemployment:


The world is the American consumer’s supplier.  Where that consumer goes, so will the world’s economy.  The official unemployment rate in the USA is about 5%.  But this does not include people who have given up looking for work.  If you include those people, or just measure the percentage of the people of working age in the USA who are available for work but who are not working, the rates are actually more like 10% and 22.5% respectively.  These people will not be driving an economic recovery any time soon.




Where did these people all go?  Maybe here…




In 2000, 16 million Americans lived on Food Stamps.  Today, over 45 million people do - about one in seven Americans.


Commodity Prices:


Commodities are in demand in a growing economy and in decline in a slowing or shrinking economy.  The lead commodity indicator - the commodity “canary in a coal mine” is copper.  Copper prices have now fallen to below $3.00 a pound - the point they were at during the 2009 recession.




Inflation:


With the mass of stimulus in the world’s economy, there should be significant inflation worldwide.  The significant deflationary threat indicated in the chart below should not be happening.




Conclusion:


No one can tell you where the world’s economy and equity markets are heading.  The indicators above suggest that a serious downturn is in the offing.  It is worth noting that Canada already experienced a recession this year, and Japan is in recession now.

Sunday 15 November 2015

Democratic Reform

The new Government of Canada will launch a democratic reform initiative at some point in its mandate.  What follows are some possible reforms that may be worth considering, and why they may be worthwhile.
1. Term Limits: No one should be able to sit as a Member of Parliament for longer than the life of three consecutive Parliaments, or a maximum of 12 years. - Absolute power corrupts absolutely, so a bit of power will corrupt a bit.  Not all politicians are corrupt, in fact most are not.  Nonetheless, a few bad apples is a few too many.  The longer they stay, the greater the chances that they will abuse their position.  Let politicians retire after 12 years and get a small pension.  There are plenty of other qualified people who can replace them.  Of course, because the Prime Minister is a Member of Parliament, this means that no PM can serve longer than 12 years.
2. Recall: Constituents should be able to recall their Member of Parliament and force a by-election, subject to strict criteria, such as 60% of electors in a riding signing a petition demanding a recall by-election within a 90 period. - It is ridiculous that MPs cannot be fired by the people they represent between elections. A recall by-election should be difficult to launch, but if an MP's behaviour warrants his or her firing, this option should be available to constituents.
3. Mandatory Voting: Every citizen should be required to vote in a federal election, with a small fine being levied against those who do not do so. - It works in Australia!  Taking 30 minutes every four years to show up to vote is not too much to ask in a democracy. If voters do not like the candidates, they are free to spoil their ballots, but it is important that everyone be included in an election to add to the integrity of every Parliament’s mandate.
4. Ranked Voting:  Voters should be able to rank their preferences on a ballot, by indicating their first, second and third choices for their Member of Parliament.  Rounds of votes should be counted until someone receives more than 50% of the votes.  The candidate who receives the greatest amount of support over 50% will win the seat. - The supports of proportional representation argue that with the first-past-the-post system, the winner of a riding is usually elected by only a plurality.  To get around this, ask that voters rank the top three, and count rounds of votes until the winner shows the greatest level of support over 50%.  This will allow the winner to be able to show that they did, in fact, get the over 50% of the vote.
5. No More than 75,000 Constituents per Riding: Make sure that Members of Parliament represent no more than 75,000 people, which would increase the size of the present House of Commons to about 470 members. - This will dramatically increase the size of the House of Commons, but in so doing, it will also dilute the control that political parties have over their members, freeing them up to more often vote their conscience as informed by the will of their constituents.  It does this by making it more remote that a given MP will ever become a minister of the Crown; the desire for which is the primary reason that MPs are loyal to their parties.
6. National Referenda: Citizens should be able to trigger a referendum on any issue, subject to strict criteria, such as 50% of national electors signing a petition within a 90 day period demanding the same. - Citizens should be able to launch national referenda on issues of the day.  It should be hard to do this, limiting the number of referenda that may go ahead, but the option should be available so that whether or not referenda are launched is not entirely subject to the interests of political parties that control this country.
7. Senate Reform: The Senate should be elected, with elections being organized by whatever method suits the provinces and territories that they represent, but an elected Senate should continue with its traditional "sober second thought" role so as to not become a legislative competitor to the House of Commons. - It is time for an elected Senate in Canada.  Our constitutional framework requires that the Senate only perform a “sober second thought” role, and that the lead legislature still be the House of Commons.  Nonetheless, as long as the basic role does not change, there is no reason why the Senate cannot be elected - there are two elected Senators right now.


8. Campaign Financing: Political parties and candidates may not receive funds from any source without the source being specifically and publicly attributed, and no person may give more than $1,000 a year to any party of candidate.  Corporations and Unions may not donate to political parties or candidates, either directly or indirectly. - Political parties in Canada pull in millions of dollars from such things as $500 a plate dinners where no tax receipts are requested or given. This makes a mockery of campaign finance reform. All loopholes in campaign financing must be closed so that no person may give more than $1000 a year to any one politician or party.

9. Advertising Between Election:  Spending on political advertising between elections must be registered with Elections Canada, and all such spending must be publicly reported. - The Conservatives started campaigning between elections.  There are no rules governing this now. If rules during formal campaigns are necessary, so are rules between those campaigns.

These potential changes should be put to the population in a national referendum on democratic reform.  Whatever they say "yes" to should be implemented as soon as possible.  A national referenda is required so that reform of our democracy is not subject to the interests of political parties which work within the system, but should never be rulers of that same system.

Tuesday 10 November 2015

Deflation!!!!????

This about says it all...

[Chart]

Yes, import prices are down in some part owing to oil, but export prices are also down. Year over year, import prices are down 10.5%.  Export prices are down 6.7%.

The annual inflation rate in the USA is now 0%.  The last time it was negative was 2009 (- 0.4%).  Before that, you need to go to 1949 to find a deflation rate in America.  And before that, you have to go back to the starting and ending years of the Great Depression. There is nothing normal about this.

Deflation is too little money chasing a set amount of goods and services, forcing sellers to cut prices.  Deflation means recession. This should not be happening with trillions of dollars sloshing about in the world's economies. 



Sunday 1 November 2015

Super Scattered Thoughts

Some scattered thoughts for Nov 1, 2015.

Economics - Chinese economic growth is a fraction of what has been reported.  They will be desperate to maintain any growth, as a serious recession will mean internal social and political turmoil.  What they did recently to spur growth was cut the value of their currency.  This came as a surprise to economic prognosticators across the planet, but a country can't have a rate that floats, that is at a constant level and that also backstops export growth all at the same time.  It is inevitable that they will devalue their currency again, soon.  The last time they did it, world equity markets plummeted.

The F-35 - The F-35 Lightning II is being considered as the odds on replacement for the CF-18 as Canada's standard fighter aircraft. The Liberals have said that they will reject this plane, and buy a cheaper alternative, devoting the money saved to the navy.  Good.  The F-35 has one engine. Canada has not used a single-engine jet fighter to patrol the Canadian North for 60 years (1950's - 1960's it was the CF-100; 1960's -1980's in was the CF-101; from then until now it has been the CF-18, all with two engines).  The reason these planes need to have two engines should be clear - if the plane experiences engine trouble over somewhere like Baffin Island and it only has one engine, there is nowhere to land.  The plane, and maybe the pilot too, will not be coming home. Regardless of costs and performance, the fact that it only has one engine should have disqualified this aircraft from consideration as a replacement from day one.

NFL - You may hate them, but absent a serious injury, it is inconceivable that the New England Patriots will not repeat as Super Bowl Champions again in February.  Hold your nose, and lay your money down!

Bacon - Last week we learned that BACON is not good for you!  WTF!  When I heard this news, I had just finished eating a Kale and Quinoa salad, with Swiss Chard on the side, covered with 12 strips of deep-fried bacon.  For years now nutritionists have been imploring us to eat as much deep-fried bacon as we possibly can!  Now they say it is bad for us!?  If I come down with a bacon-related illness, who do I sue? What's next - avoid doughnuts!

Old Bands - Give a listen to Teenage Head, "Frantic City".  A Hamilton band that was killed by the Disco Era which smothered many great Rock and Roll/Punk/Rockabilly acts.  They are still worth a listen. Hmmm...was I once cool?  Yes, for about two weeks in the summer of 1986.  All down hill since then. "Nice day for a party, isn't it..."