RealClearPolitics is the go-to place for up-to-date polls and prognostications on American politics. See here...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
They do a great job.
The prognosticators at RCP are predicting that the Democrats will pick up 3 seats in the Senate, which would result in a 50 to 50 split. They see the Democrats picking up 21 seats in the House of Representatives, meaning there would be 236 Democrats and 199 Republicans. They also see the Democrats picking up four governorships.
In short, they see a big swing to the Democrats on November 3, 2026, which should warm the cockles of every left-wing heart in America, and set the stage for the presidential election in two years time.
Well, no.
President Trump's popularity is at historic lows, with his job approval rating at negative 20. His approval rating dropped in his first term as well, but only to about negative 11 during the 2018 midterms. A negative 20 suggests that the midterms should be a total bloodbath for the Republicans. They won't be.
In 2018, the Democrats picked up a whopping 41 seats in the House of Representatives, but the Republicans picked up three seats in the Senate. Even with President Trump at negative 20, the Democrats are predicted to only pick up half of the number of seats in the House of Representatives they got eight years ago, and only enough seats in the Senate to match what the Republicans have.
What's the problem? Why will the Democrats not wipe the floor with the Republicans on November 3, 2026?
In spite of foreign wars that were not promised; government spending and debt that is out of control; inflation from tariffs that is simply denied; cozying up to rapacious dictators and billionaires to the detriment of the National Interest; totally bizarre governance, where social media has become the government's primary policy and communications tool, and so on and so on, the Democrats will not do nearly as well as they would have eight years ago. There are a few reasons for this, which are as follows.
1. Trump's Success. Trump has failed in some respects, but he has also had tremendous success in at least one area where he promised to "get the job done". As noted by the board here at mewetree.blogspot.com, his crack-down on illegal immigration has been stunningly successful. While the actions of some ICE staff are highly questionable, about 2.5 million illegal immigrants have either been removed or have left the country, and the number of illegals entering the country is down 90% from Biden's time in office.
In the sanctuary cities far from the border, this crackdown is said to be outrageous. In border states most affected by illegal immigration, this one policy action will pay dividends for the Republicans for years to come, and the Democrat's support for virtual open borders will not soon be forgotten.
2. Divide, And Be Conquered. As noted here in commenting on why Harris and the Democrats lost the last presidential election, it was mentioned that the Democrats simply don't see the country the same way as most Americans. When Democratic politicians and policy operatives look at a crowd, they see race, gender, ethnicity, age, colour and other demographic characteristics. What they don't see are individuals. This type of vision is the essence of "identity politics" which is now the only way that the Democratic Party knows how to play politics.
Again, most Americans don't see the world this way. DEI is slowly being dismantled by the courts and the private sector, being replaced by a political and cultural reaction that is setting the stage for a return to at least some level of individualism in that country. The Democrats are on the wrong side of this political and cultural reaction, and this is starting to be reflected in polls and in voting. Absent a sea-change in perspective, this will only get worse for them.
3. You Can't Oppose Your Way To The Top. Besides not understanding how the political and cultural sand is shifting beneath their feet, the Democrats approach to the hurly-burly of politics is to be reactive and negative. The oppose Trump, and not much else.
Here is a great article from Politico that confirms the impression that we here on the board of mewetree.blogspot.com have of Harris.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/13/kamala-harris-wasted-year-01115183
This article encapsulates all that is wrong with the Democrats. In short, they actually believe that your identify should be enough to get you nominated; opposition to Trump should be enough to mobilize the electorate; and they don't need to stand for anything other than bribing various demographic groups. This approach shows a deep disrespect for voters. The utter contempt that the Democrats have for most of the electorate is being reflected in polls and votes, which should be going way better for the Democrats.
The next presidential election?
Harris is the front-runner to be the Democratic presidential nominee for 2028. More and more Americans understand that her politics is utterly vacuous. If she does become the nominee, the Democrats will be in deep doodoo.
4. It Was Never Tried!! There appear to be some actual Communists, if not far left Social Democrats in the Democratic Party now. The big lie told by Western Communists literally for generations was that Communism was never actually tried, and if it had been, all would have been well. Some people, particularly young people, appear to believe this total BS.
Communism is atheistic materialism, where the means of production are collectively owned, where collective rights trump individual rights, where there is a permanent revolution against the international bourgeoisie, and where there is a dictatorship of the Proletariat.
This was tried all over Eastern Europe, in China, in North Korea and Cuba right now, in Vietnam, and elsewhere literally for decades. The verdict has been in for a very long time - it was absolutely applied, and it doesn't work.
Americans will never be true Socialists. The move to the far left by the Democrats is insane - it scares most Americans and makes the Democrats unelectable, outside of a few unique places like NYC.
The Democrats will emerge victorious on November 3, 2026, but it will be a limited and worrisome triumph which, to the observant, will contain the seeds of an historic defeat in 2028.
