Who am I?

After numerous "which character would you be" type polls...

I am tough.



And I'm R2D2.


And Spiderman.



And a Ferrari Enzo.



I am The Matrix.



And I am a Mig 21 Fishbed.



And I am an Owl...



and I am...



How bizarre.  I hardly know me!

Investors...

Read this....

https://www.marketviews.com/dangerous-signals-appear-financial-markets/

Way better analysis than you'll read on CNBC, CNN, elsewhere.

Good luck!!

Rates Up?

Unprecedented low rates in the USA are about to be raised by, what I suggest could be 0.1%. These should have been raised years ago - specifically when the economy in the USA started to recover before stumbling again in 2011.  Now, they are raising rates because they are raising rates.  They have to do it, or face a world of forever-low rates that will pervert the economy and trigger a never-ending wave of building and collapsing bubbles.  Had they raised rates in 2010, they would have built policy room to respond to a slow-down that lasted from 2011 to 2013.

They are saying that the rise in rates is warranted by the recovery in the US economy. The recovery is a fraud, perpetrated to cover five years of policy incompetence culminating in the rise in rates that they will put in place today.

Consider...reported over the last week...

New York State manufacturing has been declining for five straight months...


The Producer Price Index is trending NEGATIVE.  Yes, they have messed this up so badly that they have no choice but to raise rates, but they are doing so when there is an indication of actual deflation.  This has NEVER happened.

Retail sales are trending down...even with free money...

Business inventories are rising, suggesting a very slow retail market...again, even with free money...

GDP growth is now a very tepid 1.5 - 1.8%.  Hardly an indicator of significant growth.

What will they point to as the rational for raising rates?  Jobless claims look good - anything under 300,000 a week represents economic expansion...

But, this is true if you ignore the one in seven Americans who are living on food stamps, which is what the vast majority will do.

Yes, they have to raise rates - right into a looming recession.  Hang on!

Meaning of Trump v Clinton

Is this the best that America has to offer?  On the one hand, a vicious misogynist, racist, wanna-be demagogue, and on the other a shameless, probable criminal who is so obsessed with "the message", and the historic record, that she ran her own personal government in her basement.  Is THIS all that America has to offer? Well, no.

Bernie Sanders is the socialist opponent of Hillary Clinton.  He trails in opinion polls, but not by much.  He is the obvious response to 40 years of right-wing ideology in the USA, from both parties. He has a real plan. He is not a criminal.  He would mean a very different America.  He will not win.

Fiorina is also real.  She is a dark horse in the Republican race, but has the good virtue of not being a sick opportunist and/or sycophant to the Oligarchy (i.e. Bush and Christie...), or nuts (i.e. most of the rest of the ticket). She is an accomplished and self-made person who conducts herself with decorum, and who would obviously be a very good president, in spite of her more hard-core Republican views.  She has no chance.

And so, we will likely have The Donald and Hillary.

One has no idea how government works; the other wants to be the government.

One obviously values women only based on their bra size; the other portrays herself as the defender of all women, especially the poor while, as a public servant, having amassed a fortune of in excess of $21 Million.

One is a member of the 1%, and as such is comfortable hobnobbing with the very small number of rich people who actually run America; the other desperately wants to be part of the 1% so that she do precisely the same thing.

One wants to "Make America Great Again"; the other wants to make America hers entirely, subtly channelling Indira Gandhi and Evita Peron.

One has shamelessly supported anyone he thought would do his bidding in office; the other has shamelessly accepted his money.

Both would divide an already divided country; Hillary dividing Democrats from Republicans - Red states from Blue; Trump riding waves of fear and racism to divide one identifiable group at a time from everyone else, until everyone is divided from everyone else.

If a country's greatness is measured by the quality of its leaders, are we witnessing an "end of days" scenario in America?  Is there no one better than these two?

Cute Kittens Galore!

So, no one really reads my blog.  To increase readership, my cousin has suggested that I post a perennial fan favourite to jump start a new cadre of viewers.  And so, without any further ado, I give you...

KITTENS!!!







OMG!  They are SOOOO Cute!!









It doesn't get any cuter!

Now that I have your attention, the next blog will be about American federal investigations into attempts to illegally rig the sovereign treasuries market, followed by commentary on the continuing antics of The Donald. Not to worry - I will include the occasional kitten pic for your viewing pleasure.

Blue Jays

Argh!  Price went to the Red Sox!  That he was going to go somewhere was clear as the Jays do not have enough cash to hire him (especially with the Cdn dollar worth only $0.75 to the Greenback), but with a 7 year contract, the Jays will face him about 35 times in the next seven years.  The Cubs would have been great, where maybe the Jays would have met him occasionally in inter-league games, and the playoffs at a World series, but otherwise not at all.  Price with the Red Sox is a problem.

The Jays have a very average starting rotation - Stroman, Dickey, Estrada, Happ and likely Chavez.  This should be competitive coupled with the massive offensive power that the Jays have. Nonetheless, this probably won't do it.  The Jays have slim hope of making the playoffs in the American League East with this line up as the perennial favourites - Red Sox and Yankees - are guaranteed to load up with talent over the next few months.  Price's signing is only the start.

Given that major league teams will go through about 12 starters in an average year, the Jays need more depth.  They need another quality starter (Chavez can start in the pen), and preferably at least one and maybe two pitchers who can also start in the pen but provide at least average results as a starter if need be. Who are these guys?

Henderson Alverez seems to be leading the pack as the quality starter.  The list of guys who may be worth a look for the middle relief/starter role include former Blue Jays pitchers Shawn Marcum, and Brandon Morrow.  Both may be reclamation projects, but this is where the Jays will have to go to fill this spot.  They may both balk at a reliever/reserve starter role - if so, wish them luck elsewhere.

The tons of offence that the Jays have make a trade mid-season a real possibility.  The new management team will have to start thinking about who they can lose from this offence to strengthen the pitching at some point.  Given how tight knit this group is, the decision will be a hard one.

Conspiracies and Theories You Haven't of Heard Yet!

The trifecta of blogs on conspiracy theories ends with my own take on hitherto unheard of conspiracies.

1. Michael and La Toya Jackson were the same person.  Hard to believe, but La Toya was Michael's feminine side in drag form. These two were never seen together, because they were only one person. Since Michael sadly passed away, no one has seen La Toya since.  The reason is simple.  She never existed.







See!

2. The Internet is a Fad.  It will pass in another few months.  Yes, for all is was supposed to be, the Internet ended up being a mass  of irrelevant and irritating e-mail, and porn.  We Humans will soon take a long hard look at this phenomena, and realize that it was not worth the effort.  The end will start this Christmas when, like Disco and the Pet Rock before it, the Internet will simply go out fashion.

Where are they now???

3. McDonalds makes everything out of the same substance which was developed by Ray Kroc, who was really a molecular biologist by trade.  Everything at McD's is made out of McMix.  Ray Kroc discovered that there was a substance in the bowels of cows that could be made into anything if only the right sound were applied.  Have you ever heard the buzzes and whistles behind the counter at McDonalds? With one McBuzz, "blam!" there is a bag of fries!  With another McBell, and "whop"! there is a Big Mac. A third McWhistle, and "whish"! there is a new McWorker. A fourth McBleep, and voila there is a new chair. Every sound is a new McItem. McKroc was a genius!




4. John Lennon and Yoko Ono, and John McEnroe and Tatum O'Neil all suffer from "Married Myself Disease".  The aforementioned persons all married someone who looks surprisingly like them! This is the result of a narcissistic disease known as "Married Myself Disease" which afflicts persons who so love themselves that they can't fathom marrying anyone but themselves. Welcome to the "Self-Love-in"!





5. Castro has been dead for 11 years, and is a Vampire.  Castro has not been seen during the day in years.  When he does appear, it is always with a red stain on his beard...sometimes looking decades younger than he did the evening before.  His only state visit in the last decade was to Transylvania.



6. Hitler only had one testicle and was a vegetarian. This is true.  I have to end my discussion with something about Hitler.  Well, this is it...he was a uni-testicular veggie-muncher.

  

Conspiracies Too!

A list of conspiracy theories that are not true.

1. 9/11 was an Inside Job.  It is possible that the US Government knew something was imminent before 9/11 and did little to stop it.  It is impossible that 9/11 was planned and executed by the US Government.  If you think this was the case, Google Chomsky on 9/11.



2. There are UFOs, specifically, aliens are watching us.  Have you ever noticed that those aliens seem to always appear in the late evening, usually when someone is driving home from a bar, and almost only in the USA?  Do they not appear to people in other countries, and at all hours of the day and night because they are American aliens who are holding down jobs during the day?


3.  Elvis is Still Alive.  Nope - he died, although his music lives on.  If he were alive, someone would have seen him at some point in the last 38 years.



4. AIDS was manufactured in a lab, and introduced for the express purpose of killing Black people and Homosexuals.  Maybe it WAS manufactured, but the suggestion that its purpose was killing Black people and Homosexuals is beyond insane.  How did this nasty person know who would have sex with whom once the pathogen was released?



5. The Americans did not Land on the Moon.  Yes, they did.  If they had faked this, someone would have blabbed at some point in the last 46 years.



6. Autism comes from vaccinations.  There was a claimed connection between vaccinations and autism in the British medical journal Lancet at one point that has been repudiated and withdrawn owing to academic fraud. The connection is entirely unproven.  Where autism does come from is a legitimate question, however.



7. Global Warming was invented by former Communists after they lost the Cold War as a new way to seek world domination.  This isn;t hard.  Humans add 100 million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide to the world's atmosphere every single day, over and above what is added by Mother Nature.  It is inconceivable that adding that much carbon to the atmosphere has no effect on the climate.  The change is all around for everyone to see if they care to look.


8. The Holocaust didn't happen, but was invented by Jews to assist in their attempt to obtain World Domination.  It is not clear how claiming to have been slaughtered in a planned killing on an industrial scale leads to world domination.  A simple review of how many Jewish people were in Europe in 1939 compared to 1945, coupled with the Nazi philosophy on race should suffice to put this theory to bed...without even mentioning the literally hundreds of thousands of eyewitnesses who saw what happened and lived to pay witness to this insanity.  The point of denial is hopeful repetition.

Conspiracies Abound!

A list of current conspiracy theories, and a few oldies, which may, with time, prove to be correct.

1. Gold.  The price of Gold is purposely manipulated to keep the price down.  This is accomplished by the slow leakage of the world's Gold reserves into the world's Gold market, with large and powerful countries cowing smaller nations into giving up their Gold one at a time to feed the manipulation. This point of this manipulation is to prevent a flight from paper currency to Gold during the greatest period of money printing in history.

Proofs - 1. Country after country, from Ukraine to Venezuela, have been surrendering their Gold reserves to the USA.  2. Obvious manipulation in the form of literally hundreds of tonnes of Gold dumped in the shorts market the minute that trading opens in the East - this was the cause of the one day price collapse in April, 2013.



2. The USA, Israel and Others Subtly Support ISIL.  The reason they are doing this is to create a counter to Iran, which seems primed to take a major geopolitical role in the Middle East.  The long term goal is to create a Sunni state in North West Iraq that will form a buffer between Israel and Iran.    

Proofs - ISIL could be destroyed in a week if the West really wanted to do it.  ISIL makes hundreds of millions of dollars off oil sales every year.  Without this cash, it could completely collapse.  This trade could be stopped by simply bombing the tanker trucks taking the contraband out of ISIL's territory, for sale by transit through the territory of our allies - Turkey, Iraq, and Kurdistan.



3.  Data Manipulation/The Age of Propaganda.  From Chinese GDP, to US employment numbers, nothing coming from governments can be believed.  Every government has perfected communications to the detriment of content, and with the goal of out and out lies.

Proofs - Chinese economic data claims are contradicted by neutral data points, like the freight indexes which suggest that China's trade has plummeted and it may actually be in a recession.  Looking behind the data from the US Government often tells a completely different story from the headlines.


4.  JFK:  There was more than one shooter, and the President was killed as a result of a conspiracy, possibly including the Mob, the CIA, the US Fed, and/or the Russians.  The US Government knows who did it.

Proofs - The official US Government position since the 1970's has been that JFK was assassinated as a result of a conspiracy.  Who these people were has not been revealed....yet.




5. 9/11:  The US Government knew that the 9/11 attack was imminent, but did nothing to stop it in the hopes it would spark support for war, especially against Saddam Hussein.

Proofs - The perpetrators of 9/11 were not from Iraq, and Iraq was not involved.  The countries from where the attackers came - Saudi Arabia and Egypt - are US allies.  The precedents are Pearl Harbor, and the Gulf of Tonkin Incident.



6. Hitler did not die during WW2:  Hitler escaped Berlin as the Soviets closed in and retired to Argentina and Brazil after WW2, where he worked as a barber until his death in 1993.

Proofs - Remnants of the corpse that was supposed to be Hitler burned outside of the Bunker are available, but no one has ever taken a DNA sample.  Proving the corpse actually was Hitler would actually be easy, but no one has done it because the WW2 allies all know it wasn't him.

Tome II - The Return of Tome

Charts you need to see.

The World’s Equity Markets:

Only the NASDAQ has moved above its July highs in the recent market appreciation.  This suggests that we may be witnessing the dreaded “dead cat bounce”, and that the market has reached a peak. The impending rise in US interest rates could see first a rise and then serious drop in markets - this is exactly what happened when everyone thought rates would rise in September.  We shall see.

The Q-Ratio is the total price of the market, divided by the replacement cost of all companies.  It should be about 0.68 to reflect historic valuations.  If it rises above this it signifies market overvaluation.  It is now at 1.04, close to the value at the start of the Great Depression, for example.

World Trade:

The China Containerized Freight Index, and the Baltic Dry Index are measures of the movement of world trade.  The more demand there is to move freight, the higher the index.  These indices have fallen off dramatically in the last six months suggesting a significant slowdown in world economic activity.  This also explains the Chinese currency devaluation last summer, where they were obviously trying to recapture lost trade through a lower currency.

US Unemployment:

The world is the American consumer’s supplier.  Where that consumer goes, so will the world’s economy.  The official unemployment rate in the USA is about 5%.  But this does not include people who have given up looking for work.  If you include those people, or just measure the percentage of the people of working age in the USA who are available for work but who are not working, the rates are actually more like 10% and 22.5% respectively.  These people will not be driving an economic recovery any time soon.

Where did these people all go?  Maybe here…

In 2000, 16 million Americans lived on Food Stamps.  Today, over 45 million people do - about one in seven Americans.

Commodity Prices:

Commodities are in demand in a growing economy and in decline in a slowing or shrinking economy.  The lead commodity indicator - the commodity “canary in a coal mine” is copper.  Copper prices have now fallen to below $3.00 a pound - the point they were at during the 2009 recession.

Inflation:

With the mass of stimulus in the world’s economy, there should be significant inflation worldwide.  The significant deflationary threat indicated in the chart below should not be happening.

Conclusion:

No one can tell you where the world’s economy and equity markets are heading.  The indicators above suggest that a serious downturn is in the offing.  It is worth noting that Canada already experienced a recession this year, and Japan is in recession now.

Democratic Reform

The new Government of Canada will launch a democratic reform initiative at some point in its mandate.  What follows are some possible reforms that may be worth considering, and why they may be worthwhile.

1. Term Limits: No one should be able to sit as a Member of Parliament for longer than the life of three consecutive Parliaments, or a maximum of 12 years. - Absolute power corrupts absolutely, so a bit of power will corrupt a bit.  Not all politicians are corrupt, in fact most are not.  Nonetheless, a few bad apples is a few too many.  The longer they stay, the greater the chances that they will abuse their position.  Let politicians retire after 12 years and get a small pension.  There are plenty of other qualified people who can replace them.  Of course, because the Prime Minister is a Member of Parliament, this means that no PM can serve longer than 12 years.

2. Recall: Constituents should be able to recall their Member of Parliament and force a by-election, subject to strict criteria, such as 60% of electors in a riding signing a petition demanding a recall by-election within a 90 period. - It is ridiculous that MPs cannot be fired by the people they represent between elections. A recall by-election should be difficult to launch, but if an MP's behaviour warrants his or her firing, this option should be available to constituents.

3. Mandatory Voting: Every citizen should be required to vote in a federal election, with a small fine being levied against those who do not do so. - It works in Australia!  Taking 30 minutes every four years to show up to vote is not too much to ask in a democracy. If voters do not like the candidates, they are free to spoil their ballots, but it is important that everyone be included in an election to add to the integrity of every Parliament’s mandate.

4. Ranked Voting:  Voters should be able to rank their preferences on a ballot, by indicating their first, second and third choices for their Member of Parliament.  Rounds of votes should be counted until someone receives more than 50% of the votes.  The candidate who receives the greatest amount of support over 50% will win the seat. - The supports of proportional representation argue that with the first-past-the-post system, the winner of a riding is usually elected by only a plurality.  To get around this, ask that voters rank the top three, and count rounds of votes until the winner shows the greatest level of support over 50%.  This will allow the winner to be able to show that they did, in fact, get the over 50% of the vote.

5. No More than 75,000 Constituents per Riding: Make sure that Members of Parliament represent no more than 75,000 people, which would increase the size of the present House of Commons to about 470 members. - This will dramatically increase the size of the House of Commons, but in so doing, it will also dilute the control that political parties have over their members, freeing them up to more often vote their conscience as informed by the will of their constituents.  It does this by making it more remote that a given MP will ever become a minister of the Crown; the desire for which is the primary reason that MPs are loyal to their parties.

6. National Referenda: Citizens should be able to trigger a referendum on any issue, subject to strict criteria, such as 50% of national electors signing a petition within a 90 day period demanding the same. - Citizens should be able to launch national referenda on issues of the day.  It should be hard to do this, limiting the number of referenda that may go ahead, but the option should be available so that whether or not referenda are launched is not entirely subject to the interests of political parties that control this country.

7. Senate Reform: The Senate should be elected, with elections being organized by whatever method suits the provinces and territories that they represent, but an elected Senate should continue with its traditional "sober second thought" role so as to not become a legislative competitor to the House of Commons. - It is time for an elected Senate in Canada.  Our constitutional framework requires that the Senate only perform a “sober second thought” role, and that the lead legislature still be the House of Commons.  Nonetheless, as long as the basic role does not change, there is no reason why the Senate cannot be elected - there are two elected Senators right now.

8. Campaign Financing: Political parties and candidates may not receive funds from any source without the source being specifically and publicly attributed, and no person may give more than $1,000 a year to any party of candidate.  Corporations and Unions may not donate to political parties or candidates, either directly or indirectly. - Political parties in Canada pull in millions of dollars from such things as $500 a plate dinners where no tax receipts are requested or given. This makes a mockery of campaign finance reform. All loopholes in campaign financing must be closed so that no person may give more than $1000 a year to any one politician or party.

9. Advertising Between Election:  Spending on political advertising between elections must be registered with Elections Canada, and all such spending must be publicly reported. - The Conservatives started campaigning between elections.  There are no rules governing this now. If rules during formal campaigns are necessary, so are rules between those campaigns.

These potential changes should be put to the population in a national referendum on democratic reform.  Whatever they say "yes" to should be implemented as soon as possible.  A national referenda is required so that reform of our democracy is not subject to the interests of political parties which work within the system, but should never be rulers of that same system.