Sunday 27 August 2017

Equity Markets...

Read this....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-26/these-4-charts-show-why-you-should-run-away-sp-500

Estimated return of the S&P 500 over the next seven years is negative 3.9%.

And this...

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

The Shiller P/E was about 30 in October, 1929.  It is that high again.

And this...

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/08/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-july-update

The Q Ratio was 1.06 in October, 1929.  It is 1.09 now.

Why are you still invested in equities?

No one can time the market perfectly, but long term trends and inflection points can be predicted accurately.  The challenge now is preserving capital, not capital accumulation.

October is six weeks away.

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Saturday 19 August 2017

Trump and the Meaning of Charlottesville


It has been a sad and disturbing week in the USA.  The events in Charlottesville have rocked the world.

To recap, the world witnessed the following.

A Nazi/KKK gathering to protest the taking down of a statue to Robert E Lee, replete with exceptionally disturbing torchlight marches that mimicked the Nazis under Hitler, and a stream of shockingly racist invective.

One dead and about 19 injured in a terrorist drive-by, copycat murder committed by a crazed, far right-wing extremist - her name was Heather Heyer.

Many in a nation, especially in the media, expressing outrage at the initial refusal of the American President to specifically name and shame the hate mongers, even though he did decry hatred in all his forms, preferring instead to condemn the violence on both sides. The accusation has been that this refusal to condemn constituted tacit support for these racist bigots and hate-mongers in the KKK and Nazi party on the part of the US President.

A back-down by the President who specifically condemned the KKK and Nazis in the days after the events in Charlottesville, only to "double down" on his initial comments at a totally out-of-control press conference a few days after that. (Oh, the behaviour of the US media at that press conference was disgraceful, screaming at the US President and baiting him with questions designed to support a political narrative - but this circus was Trump's fault.  Instead of allowing it to continue, he could have established decorum in about ten seconds had he so chosen.)

The abandonment of this President by business leaders, and many in his party stemming from his comments, and with this, the increasing expectation that this man will soon be impeached.

The cancellation of the president's business counsels, and the firing/quitting of the President's alt-right advisor, Steve Bannon.

What to make of all this?

Trump Triumphant

As I noted as early as a blog the day he announced he was running for the Office of the President of the United States, Trump knows exactly what he is doing - he is constantly underestimated by his opponents and those in the press. Case in point - his messaging in the past week has played very well with his supporters. To recap, he has continually said the following.

Hate in all its forms needs to be condemned.

There were two groups committing violence in Charlottesville.

The answer to racism in America is jobs, and he has created a million of these.

The CEOs who abandoned him did so because they would not bring jobs back to America - implicitly, they are the real traitors who moved millions of jobs out of the country.

The killing that occurred in Charlottesville was an act of "murder"; he has refused to call it "terrorism", implicitly because that label is reserved for Muslim extremism.

As always with Trump, there is a mixture of truths, half-truths, untold truths, and bold faced lies in this.

Most in the media, and one would think the majority of elected representatives in his party reject this, again because he has not emphasized the "massive horrific elephant in the room" which is the shockingly racist actions and statements by the KKK and the Nazis. While the press and professional politicians are essentially unanimous in condemning him because of this, what of Americans themselves?

I think that the relentless accusations and invective against him in the press serves to make him stronger every single day.

During this very sad episode, Trump's approval ratings slipped, at best, 2 - 3%. He has an increasingly solid approval of between 35 - 42% of Americans, and that support has already started to recover from the dip he suffered a few days ago.

Truly, if someone still supports Trump now, there is not much this man can do that will move that support away from him. He is way beyond being the Teflon man! I think it is actually possible that he has the most solid political support of any politician in the USA right at this moment.

In a country where only 50% of people bother to vote, that support, because it is VERY committed to Trump and would likely show up at the ballot box, would mean that he would handily win a presidential election were it to be held today.

He is not a political genius, but his opposition keeps making the same mistake - when the professional chatting classes in the US Establishment pillory him, they distance themselves from the tens of millions of Americans who support him, precisely because those same Establishment chattering classes have never been held in lower esteem. At some point those classes need to look in the mirror, not to Trump, to find the source of their troubles. Instead, they have doubled down on Trump yet again, and it is not working.

Hypocrisy so Thick you could Cut it with a Knife

The crocodile tears flowed in epic proportions over the last week! The implicit evil that is Trump was decried in new and even more vehement statements, all as part of carefully orchestrated political theatre where many in the media/Establishment chattering classes now think they now have Trump on the run.

A few thoughts on this.

How is it possible that the KKK still exists as an organization in the USA, and that the KKK and the Nazi party have not been banned?  The entire point of these two odious organizations is the denial of basic human and civil rights on a massive scale, and the overturning of large swathes of the US Constitution, this stemming from a crazed and fanatical racism.

To recap - the KKK spent its first 80 years terrorizing Black people so that they would not exercise their most basic rights, and organizing lynchings. The Nazis exterminated millions of human beings because of their religious affiliation, and ethnic origins. What does this have to do with America!?

I watched many, many commentaries in the US media opining about the events of last weekend. I did not see a single call for these organizations to be banned, even from those who decry them in the strongest possible terms. Why is this so? I mean, isn't this OBVIOUS? The USA has banned tens of international terrorist groups. Why not ban these divisive and hateful groups as well?

The stated response would likely be that these people, even though they hold abhorrent opinions, still have a right to their opinions. They have, in essence, a "right to free hate speech".

OK, but free speech has reasonable limits, and is a constitutional amendment banning speech designed to foster hatred against an identifiable group or groups really not possible?  Why is no one even talking about it? Was "free speech" really supposed to include "free hate speech" that serves to tear the country apart?

What can "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men were created equal..." mean if speech aimed at overturning this simple, unifying and beautiful sentiment can be viciously disseminated, all in the name of a right that itself was supposed to stem from this very sentiment?

And it is here that I think we need to be honest and direct.

I think these organizations exist because the USA is still home to a toxic and twisted system of race relations, replete with effectively segregated communities, schools, businesses and even entire lives.

More than that, I think these organizations exist because of an unstated assumption on the part of those who could get rid of them - essentially wealthy, White male and female politicians and opinion leaders, including those on the Left and in the corporate world - that they are somehow still tolerable.

To put this another way, I think there is a very subtle assumption in the US Establishment that the right of these organizations to hate trumps the rights of others to not be hated.

And in the USA, hatred is now endemic.

The Culture of Hate

One of the comfortable assumptions on the part of many in the USA during this difficult time is that no matter what each side says to the other, and no matter what emotions it stokes, the unity of the USA is essentially secure. Other countries would be more careful - certainly much of what passes as commentary would not happen in my own country (Canada), given our fragile unity. This comfortable assumption allows for what I think is an orgy of hate to play itself out daily in that country.

Take the opinion makers on the Right. These people - Hannity, Rush L, for example - have made a career from evoking outrage and hate on the part of their audience. They are not news people or journalists. They are agents provocateurs, driving negative feeling and sentiment rather than logic in the direction that supports their benefactors, and their pocket-books.

But so do people like Stephen Colbert, whose humour coasts on an edifice of almost pure hate. Every single night he is at it, viciously carving the objects of his hate, in a series of monologues that are often admittedly hilarious. But don't be fooled - this is the smiling face of hatred, in a country where most people would say that hatred is the other guy.  I suspect that he doesn't see himself that way.

I think that hatred is now a national disease in America, forestalling any real conversation abut what unites, which dwarfs the things that divide Americans. Absent this conversation, the divisions will continue to deepen.

More specifically, if you aren't thinking about a civil war between organizations like Antifa and the KKK/Nazis, you aren't paying attention. This development would only be possible where good people assume that the other guy is the problem - which is a big part of America today.

Can't We All Just Get Along?

The typical US sentiment these days, on the part of the Left and Right, is that "We need the other side to stop hating!"

No, Americans need to get used to the idea of living next to people who are not the same colour as they are; sending their children to mixed schools; working with people of different ethnic backgrounds; to becoming, in essence, colour blind.  Tens of millions of people of good will are trying to make this happen every single day, and the counter demonstrations against the KKK/Nazis in Charlottesville were far larger - but the USA as a whole is not there yet.

Please consider the very minor race experiences of a Canadian in the USA.

I visited Palo Alto, California three times in the early 2000s. This is the hotbed of the IT revolution, and leaders of this revolution have been vociferous lately in their support for basic human rights, including opposition to all forms of discrimination.

Really?

In the hotbed of their IT revolution, at least when I visited 10 - 15 years ago, I saw exactly ONE Black person in Palo Alto in my three visits. Their absence stood out markedly. I asked about this and was advised that the Blacks lived in East Palo Alto - on the other side of a road.

If this isn't segregation in its most basic form, what is? I have since reflected that it must be easy to stand up for the rights of Black people when they may be not more than an interesting abstraction that you only ever encounter in your daily life when you watch tv.

I also went to Indiana regularly in the mid-2000s. I often listened to country radio stations, and was "shocked and appalled" to hear regular exhortations to join the "Sons of the Confederacy" where the advertisements usually asked something like "So, have you been dishonoured and insulted...???" I found this extremely odd because, while I am not an American, I was aware that Indiana was not even in the Confederacy!

Note that when Trump is impeached - and Mueller is working quietly away every day toward this inevitable conclusion - we will have President Pence, who is from Indiana, where the Sons of the Confederacy is no doubt alive and well. Unlike Trump, he will have his propaganda lines down pat - "Can't we all just get along?"...cue the crocodile tears...

The Ironies

A few final thoughts.

The people who are likely most integrated with Blacks in America are poor Whites - the very people who support Trump. Tens of millions of these people extend the hand of friendship to those of other races every single day.

ISIS is fighting a battle against modernity, trying to stop the modern world, and turn their world back to 600 AD.  The fact that the KKK still exists suggests that the USA is fighting this battle as well - where the basic ideals of equality of the US Constitution, as noted above, are still a challenge almost 240 years later.


Monday 14 August 2017

Buying the BIG Sell Off

I have predicted the demise of this Stock Market for a while. No one can get the timing 100% right, 100% of the time. Now, I think we are close - within three months of a very big correction driven by a new recession.

What to do?
If you want to make some money on the impending Stock Market and related Real Estate Price Crash, I suggest you look no farther than this -
Horizon ETFs - Betapro S&P/TSX Capped Financials 2X Daily Bear ETF.  The symbol is HFD on the TSX.  More information may be found here -
The price of this ETF rises 2% for every 1% that the prices of Canadian bank stocks fall.  Of course, the inverse is true - if prices rise 1%, the value of this ETF falls 2%.  It is crucial to catch the bottom before investing.
The price has trended between a high of $6.50 per unit and a low of about $5.80 per unit during 2017.  It has held in this range all year.  Its precipitous fall since it peaked at $230 a unit in early 2009 appears to be over.
Of course, the value of this ETF is obviously directly related to house prices in Canada, which many outside observers say is in a very serious bubble.  There are reports that these prices have started to fall precipitously in Canada's largest housing market in Toronto.  See here -
If this trend holds, I can't see the price of stocks for Canadian banks holding firm where they are.  In fact, I think they will fall dramatically, just as they did during the 2008 - 09 recession.
Note as well that, based on concerns about this bubble and about massive personal debt held by Canadians, Moody's downgraded the debt of all six major Canadian banks in May of 2013, and again in May of this year.  I think this has served to chill the market for these bank equities, and would note that since the May, 2017 downgrade, the value of these stocks have trended down or remained essentially flat.  I think this strongly suggests they have found a plateau where there is very little chance these prices will appreciate further.  In short, I think the next big price movement will be down, not up.
The last time that house prices fell in Canada, the price of a unit of HFD rose from about $80 a unit to $230 a unit - it rose about $185% while stock markets collapsed worldwide.  You can make money in bad times.
As well, in the last recession, the average price of a house in Canada only fell 5%.  There are predictions that these prices could collapse, at least in some markets such as Toronto and Vancouver, between 40% - 50% this time.  In the early 1990's recession, prices fell 30% in Toronto over a period of six years, so this has actually happened within living memory.  In such a situation, I think anyone invested in HFD would do very well indeed.
Disclosure - I do have a small position in HFD.  I do not work for, nor am I associated with any investment products or company whatsoever.   Do your own due diligence...

Tuesday 8 August 2017

Trump and Possible Charges


I have noted that Grand Jury = Charges. So what charges may be pending, and against whom?


Here is some of what I think could land like an atom bomb on the US political landscape, likely by the end of the summer. Let's start with the charges that will start off what may be a "death of a thousand charges" that sink the Trump administration.

Michael Flynn:

This man was Trump's National Security Advisor for somewhat under a month before having to resign over allegations that he was too cosy with Russia. The possible allegations could involve the following.

He did not get approval from the US Government when, as a former member of the military, he was employed by foreign governments (by RT, which is the Russian news/propaganda outfit in the USA, and by a Turkish company, working for the Russians who hired Flynn to work to subvert the Government of Ukraine, which is a US ally), and/or he was late applying for such approval. This is a clear violation of the law.

Related to this employment, he failed to disclose payments from Russia and Turkey for various services and speeches, as required when he applied for his security clearance when he was nominated as National Security Advisor.

He also may have lied to the FBI about whether or not he had discussed sanctions wit the Russians. Lying to the public happens all of the time these days.  Lying to the FBI is a clear case of obstruction of justice.

Aside 1 - What is Obstruction of Justice?

"The crime of obstruction of justice, in United States jurisdictions, refers to the crime of obstructing prosecutors or other officials. Common law jurisdictions other than the United States tend to use the wider offense of perverting the course of justice." - Wiki

The Special Prosecutor has asked the White House for information related to Michael Flynn. He will be charged with any or all of the above, I would think rather soon, in order to try to turn him against his former compatriots.

Jared Kushner (and Trump Jr and Manafort):

A few weeks ago, news "leaked out", as it is wont to do these days, that the Special Prosecutor was looking at Trump's financial dealings with Russians. As noted here, Trump lost it.

Within less than a week, he changed his legal team and explored the possibility of pardoning everyone, including himself; Priebus was gone, and "the Mooch" was in to smooth communications; Spicer resigned in protest; the "the Mooch" was replaced by Kelly; Sessions was viciously attacked on Twitter, obviously to get him to resign to clear a path for firing Mueller. There was smoke all over the place after the new focus on financial dealings was revealed - but is there any fire?

As part of his denial of any wrong-doing as part of his meetings with Russians as part of the 2016 presidential election campaign, Kushner has also clarified that, "I have not relied on Russian funds for my businesses, and I have been fully transparent in providing all requested information." You'll note how limited this denial is. He does not say he did not have any dealings with Russians. He does not say that he didn't provide funds to them. He does not say that he has no contact with any Russians now.  

As recently as 2015, Kushner had dealings with a Russian billionaire named Lev Leviev, paying his company $295 million in a real estate deal.  Leviev is a partner in a Russian firm called Prevezon Holdings that was under investigation for attempting to use real estate deals in Manhattan to launder money stolen from the Russian treasury.  Legal counsel for Prevezon was Natalia Veselnitskaya - the very person that Kushner met at the infamous meeting where he had been lead to believe that the Russians had damning information about Hillary Clinton.

Will charges of money laundering from previous dealings follow at some point? For now, there are only innuendos, and no evidence. But I would think that Trump's complete "freak-out" at the news that Mueller was also looking at financial dealings speaks to something rather ominous just below the surface. He has the right to remain silent, but his "freak-outs" speak volumes.

Apparently, Kushner did not include this meeting in his security application forms either. As with Flynn, this is a clear violation.

Aside 2 - Let's stop for a moment. There is an allegation in the alt-media that the "Russian connection" to Trump is a complete fabrication = "fake news".

And yet, we have the then National Security Advisor for Trump caught lying about the nature of a conversation with the Russian Ambassador to the USA - specifically about the fact that he was talking about sanctions - and he also took money from RT, which is the Russian propaganda news outlet in the USA, and to work for Russia to subvert America's Ukrainian ally.

And we also have Trump's son-in-law conducting hundreds of millions of dollars worth of business directly with Russian oligarchs, and meeting with Russians for the ostensible purpose of receiving information in order to subvert a US presidential election.

This all happened - I have not even mentioned the allegation of hacking e-mails, which is the standard allegation. It is all serious, and speaks of possible Russian influence in the heart of the White House. The suggestion that there is nothing to the "Russian connection" is 100% Bull Shit.

Let's continue.

Kushner, Trump Jr, and Manafort - Trump's campaign manager - took a meeting with Russians where, before the meeting they had cause to believe that the point was to receive damning information from a foreign government designed to impact a presidential election in the United States. Kushner has since said that it was about discussing the Magnitsky Act, so he left.

That they even took this meeting is exceptionally disturbing. On its face, all three went to a meeting, then Kushner left once he realized that he was not going to get any juicy information about Hillary Clinton. Get it? Everything is OK because he left before he could commit a felony, the committing of which is clearly what he intended to do!

Oh, we need to point out that he actually had FOUR meetings with the Russians. After Kushner was caught having gone to this meeting, he decided to be transparent, and release e-mails relating to his four meetings with the Russians. Were these meetings disclosed in his security application?  

Aside 3 - What is a Criminal Conspiracy?

"A conspiracy is an agreement between two or more persons to commit a crime at some time in the future. Criminal law in some countries or for some conspiracies may require that at least one overt act must also have been undertaken in furtherance of that agreement, to constitute an offence. There is no limit on the number participating in the conspiracy and, in most countries, no requirement that any steps have been taken to put the plan into effect (compare attempts which require proximity to the full offence). For the purposes of concurrence, the actus reus is a continuing one and parties may join the plot later and incur joint liability and conspiracy can be charged where the co-conspirators have been acquitted or cannot be traced." - Wiki

What actually happened at these meetings? I suggest that we still don't really know. What we do know is that if any information purporting to be about Hillary Clinton was offered and the US citizens at that meeting received and reviewed it, then even if they thought it was unworthy they would have crossed the line and would have clearly violated US election laws, as it is illegal for a US citizen to conspire with a foreign government to subvert a US election.

Specifically, in this situation, even receiving and considering information from the perspective of subverting an election in concert with a foreign government would constitute an "overt act" in aid of a conspiracy meaning that the criminal conspiracy test would be met.

I can hear the Twitter-sphere now..."How does this make sense?!!" What if we hear of a new version of the meeting where Kushner, Trump Jr and Manafort looked at information, realized it was worthless, and never used it?

Well, it doesn't matter. You see, when you set out to rob a bank, you cannot escape prosecution by complaining that after you held it up, there wasn't enough money to make it worth your while!!

This point is the key - the stated purpose of that meeting was in fact "robbing a bank" - subverting a US election in concert with a foreign government. These American citizens went to a meeting with the full intent of committing a felony. If they received and looked at any information, they crossed the line. Stay tuned.

And so, was the Magnitsy Act the reason for the meeting, or was this a fall-back excuse once the real reason for the meeting did not pan out?  I suspect that we do not know the whole story here. I suspect that we know very soon, for reasons outlined at the end of this tome.

Aside 4 - Again, the Russians are all over this. The suggestion that the "Russian connection" is "fake news" is borderline insane; the product of a deranged propaganda.

Donald Trump:

What about the President of the United States?

In keeping with the great traditions of both the Cosa Nostra and the Nixon White House (BTW - tomorrow is the 43rd anniversary of Nixon's resignation), everyone close to Trump will fall on their sword rather than implicate him in any crimes or misdemeanours. There will be no charges against him based on evidence offered by his underlings.

Some have discussed possible obstruction charges. Recall the definition of Obstruction of Justice above. Former Director Comey was subtly asked to drop the Flynn investigation by Trump in a private meeting. While this was unseemly, and while this was borderline obstruction, even Comey himself did not think it would meet the test.

But what about everything else Trump does?

Hey!!! Did you know that this man Tweets incessantly!?

Not only does he Tweet - he Tweets during congressional investigations, and about matters about which he is aware there are on-going criminal investigations. The point of these Tweets is clearly to influence the course of these investigations. The effect, coming as these public prognostications do from the President of the United States himself, may be to actually obstruct officials and prosecutors in the furtherance of their investigations.

Again, obstruction certainly seems to be the point of many of these communications. Many are also completely untruthful. Has it occurred to Trump that at least some of his Tweeting may itself meet the test of Obstruction of Justice?

Let me speculate a bit about a possible Russian connection.

Trump had previous business dealings with the Russians. Did the Russians send Trump some cash during the Great Recession 2007-08 to save his financial bacon, and now it is payback time

Certainly, one infamous Trump Tweet - "NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA - NO DEALS, NO LOANS, NO NOTHING!" is 100% false.  His dealings with Russian apparently go back decades. Think beauty pageants and plans for Trump Towers, at least.

Related to this, one may want to ask why it is that Trump really run for office? Is he a modern day Manchurian candidate? Or is it simpler than that - is it that being President just the best business opportunity this man has ever known?

Other possible charges against any or all of the above:

Illegal campaign contributions if any of these funds came from a foreign source.

Receipt of gifts and other assets, including business opportunities, from foreign governments while in office, which breaches the US constitution.

More obstruction from lying to investigators relating to a many, many connections to the Russians - the illicit meeting or meetings; previous financial dealings; on-going communications or even dealing with the Russians.  Recall, you have the right to remain silent, but you cannot purposely mislead a cop - ask Martha Stewart what happens when you do that.  

The Russian Playbook and the Impending Storm of Evidence:

More than anything else - Syria, Ukraine, a higher price for oil - the Russians want the sanctions lifted. This is clearly what they hope to gain from a Trump presidency, and this was the very thing that Flynn discussed with the Russian Ambassador to the USA shortly after the election. The hope to curry favour with Trump was the reason they did not retaliate against the USA when Obama threw Russian diplomats out of the USA in late 2016.

But the sanctions not only have not been relaxed or lifted, Congress just voted to increase them! The Russians have responded by kicking hundreds of US diplomats out of Russia.

In short, Russia's Trump gambit has completely failed meaning that the Russians now have no reason not to try to play the other side of the street; that is, to cosy up to their old friends, the Clintons and the Democrats.

With the sanctions increased in severity and Trump powerless to stop it, I think that Trump will soon go from being their "agent provocateur", to being the Russians' sacrificial lamb, offered on a plate to the Democrats in return for a new run at reduced sanctions. Specifically, I think we can expect the Russians to start leaking select information about the various meetings and other undertakings noted above.

And so, I started by noting that the Special Prosecutor has convened a Grand Jury; in part because he cannot proceed without evidence, and he needs that jury to compel the production of evidence. This may be his lucky month - I think the evidence is about to start arriving in droves.

The Inevitable Impeachment:

With Flynn, Kushner, Manafort, and maybe even Trump Jr charged with anything relating to the Russians, I simply cannot see the Trump administration surviving. Trump does not have to be charged personally for him to be impeached, as 'crimes and misdemeanours" in the US constitution as a grounds for impeachment only means 'unfit for office'. With these people charged, his manifest unfitness will be crystal clear to all and sundry.

I think this will happen with lightening rapidity, dropping on an unsuspecting world within weeks, making for a blockbuster late August and September unlike anything we have seen since 1974. Unlike Nixon, Trump will not resign, and will have to be dragged out of the White House kicking and Tweeting all the way.

More ominous than this is the fact that any obstruction charges will be sold by propagandists as the "deep state" taking its revenge. With so many willing to believe so many lies, and so many opinion-makers willing to spew this relentless drivel, the end game here is not clear. (Note - there is a "deep state". But its primary concern is for the apparatus of the state itself, which Trump has not threatened, except for some noise about the EPA. As long as no one threatens the bureaucracy itself, they don't give a rat's ass who is in power.)

I need to state that I do think the Clintons, and Obama and their many minions should also be subjected to a special prosecutor who needs to look into their activities as well. As noted in a previous post, unlike Nixon who played the role of "crook" 43 years ago, I am concerned that they are all crooks this time.

Finally, the essence of what America represents is facing a growing crisis right now. The work of the Founding Fathers of the USA is about to be tested, I think like no time since the 60's and Watergate, and maybe even the Civil War.

Their work was sound. I think that after a time of trial and difficulty, America will emerge triumphant.

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Friday 4 August 2017

Grand Jury means Charges

Getting closer....

The news is a bit mixed. Mueller is either using an existing Grand Jury, or he will convene a new one, or he has convened a new one, and is using that one as part of his investigation. No matter. Grand Jury means charges at some point.

Mueller recently expanded his probe from election-related activities to also include commercial dealing. Since then, Trump has lost it - the Mooch has come and gone; Priebus gone; Kelly has been hired; Sessions has been bullied; his legal team has changed, and pardons have been explored.

The Republicans have changed as well. They will not support the bullying of Sessions, or the firing of Mueller. Lines have been drawn.

So Mueller continues. And Mueller is very close, and getting closer by the day. The FBI does not convene or utilize a Grand Jury unless it is very convinced that it will be laying charges against someone for something at some point.

Stay tuned.

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