Fearless Predictions, 2018!!

Fearless Predictions 2018!

Having missed on just about every prediction for 2017, it is time to try, try again!

Sports:

Baseball: The Blue Jays win the World Series, beating the Chicago Cubs in 6. 

Note - this is conditional on the Blue Jays keeping Donaldson; trading TU-Low and Martin; and hiring Arrieta, and Navarro. They also need average help in the outfield and infield. 

Hockey: Hell freezes over and the Toronto Maple Leafs win the first of three consecutive Stanley Cups. They will beat LA Kings, who will surge in the second half of the season. People from Toronto become insufferable.

Basketball: The Toronto Raptors will make the playoffs, will win the East, but will lose to the Warriors in the NBA Championship.

NFL Football: Pittsburgh Steelers! 

CFL Football: Calgary Stampeders, beating the RedBlacks.

MLS: TFC.

Olympic Hockey: Canada will win with its Spengler Cup team.

Politics:

Ontario: Progressive Conservative minority government; NDP in Opposition; Wynne on board of directors of Ontario Hydro.

BC: Minority government will fall, leading to an NDP majority. Electoral reform referendum will fail.

US Congressional Elections: Democrats barely take the Senate (51 Dem/47 Rep/2 Ind), but not the House of Representatives. Candidates from neither the Republicans or Democrats will do better than at any time since before the Civil War. 

Pre-Prediction!!! - The 2020 Presidential campaign will be a real four way race. 1. Traditional Republican; 2. Tea Party Wingnut; 3. Clinton Democrat (who will be Clinton herself running for the female vote with her daughter); and, 4. Sanders Socialist. The Sanders Socialist will win as the Millennials show up in droves to overturn the five-decade rule of the Boomer Generation.

Trump: Impeached by Congress in Spring, 2018 – before the Congressional Elections - after his son and son-in-law are charged with Conspiracy against the USA.

Putin: Will be re-elected...again and again.

Economics:

Interest Rates: Will be increased 2 x in USA and Canada. As a direct result…

Housing: Toronto prices down 15%; Canada prices down 10%, by June, 2018. 

Markets: Will experience a steep 20% drop in first three months, followed by a partial recovery for the rest of the year. Will end the year down 10%. 

Gold: Will hit $1,400 an ounce by June 1, 2018, and end the year well above $1,300.  

Note - The bubble that has moved from Japanese real estate in the 1980s; to the Asian economies by the mid-1990s; to the IT sector in the late 1990s; to US housing, housing markets elsewhere, and equity markets in the mid 2000's; and now into just about everything courtesy of the lowest interest rates in human history, will finally start to move to Gold.

Bitcoin: Will collapse as nation states assert that it is a haven for criminals, and shut down exchanges/outlaw its use. Reality - there is no way that the world's central banks will allow a competitor like this to survive, unless they control it.

Europe: Will be rocked by anti-austerity/labour market reform demonstrations in Greece, Spain and France. Greece will default, triggering a crisis that will see it prepare to leave the Eurozone. Spain will endure a second independence declaration by the Catalans. Brexit will be reversed following a new referendum in the UK after the minority Conservative Government falls. In spite of all this, Europe will continue to be a bastion of sanity and civility.

NAFTA: The US President will threaten, but back away from a pledge to cancel the trade agreement. The negotiations will go on...and on...and on.

World:

Syria: Will be at peace via an accord brokered by Russia and Iran. Up to 200,000 Syrians will head home from Europe. The West will swallow its pride, and participate in a rebuilding plan.

North Korea: Kim Jong-Un and his family will be assassinated in a military coup when a North Korean missile lands near Los Angeles, and the USA begins targeted airstrikes in retaliation. Peace talks will follow, aimed at unifying the Korean peninsula.

Saudi Arabia: Will experience an attempted coup by hardliners. It will fail, and many of these people will be exposed as ISIS sympathizers and financiers....

ISIS: Will launch a coordinated attack on cities throughout the world at same time and day to demonstrate that it is still very much alive – an ISIS version of the Tet Offensive. It will decline rapidly after this.

China: Will be rocked by demonstrations nation-wide as housing prices and stock markets there start to collapse, threatening the deal that the Communists have made with the people of that country - wealth in return for political subservience. The resulting repression will shock the world.

Culture:

Music: Punk!

2017 Predictions - Revisited

Below is a review of the fearless predictions for 2017....how did things work out? Let's just say that I was off a tad....a big tad!  

Hello!  Welcome to 2017!

Happy Birthday Canada!  You are 150 this year!

And Happy Birthday to Finland - celebrating 100 years of independence from Mother Russia!

Here are the predictions for this year...

Sports:

Chicago's Heyday returns...

Baseball - The Chicago Cubs will repeat as World Champions; the Toronto Blue Jays miss playoffs by 3 games. The post-AA Jays management will keep stocking the farm system in preparation for another generation of mediocrity.

Wrong - Houston reigned supreme.

Hockey - The Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens make the playoffs. The Canadiens go the farthest, eliminated in the semi-finals.  The Chicago Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup.

Mixed - They all made the playoffs, but the Sens went the farthest, and Pittsburgh won.

CFL - The Calgary Stampeders will win the Grey Cup.

Wrong - Hell froze over again, it was the Argos! (Although Calgary made it to the final...)

Super Bowl - The NY Giants will win the Super Bowl, 35 - 21 over the New England Patriots, proving Eli Manning is not a fluke.

Wrong - It was the Patriots again.  And Manning is "questionable".

NBA - The Cleveland Cavaliers will repeat, but the Toronto Raptors will push them to 7 games this time, with four of those games going into overtime. LeBron James will say in later years that this year's Raptors team was the toughest team he ever played against.

Wrong - It was the Warriors beating Cleveland, who walked over Toronto in four games to get there.

National Politics:

Ontario - Premier Kathleen Wynne will be dumped by her party by the Spring.  Hydro rates will rise in celebration.

Wrong - The misgoverning of Ontario continues! 

Canada - Expect a Constitutional Crisis as the new Senate asserts a role beyond the traditional and conventional "sober second thought" role, prompting a suspension of all appointments, and a strong push to abolish the Senate as soon as possible led by Premier Wall in Saskatchewan.

Wrong - The house of sober second thought has mostly behaved...for now!

International Politics:

This will be the year that peace broke out....

Syria - A viable plan for ending the civil war, including a plan to rebuild the country and the return of millions of refugees, will be agreed to and will take hold - sponsored by Putin, Trump, Merkel, and Erdogan. They will jointly win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Wrong - a peace agreement is closer than ever, but not in 2017, and the West is not part of it.

China - Will spark a military confrontation with Japan in the South China Sea as a way to push the USA out of the region, and to deflect internal dissension. The result will be a short, sharp air war that the Japanese will win easily.  The new UN Secretary General will launch a multi-country dialogue - China, Vietnam, Japan, The Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan - that will result in a resource-sharing and environmental protection agreement for the South China Sea, effectively diffusing this powder keg.

Wrong - This powder keg continues to simmer.

Ukraine/Crimea - Trump will broker a deal that recognizes the Russian occupation of Crimea, with compensation to be paid by Russia to Ukraine, and a mutual undertaking on the part of Russia to leave Ukraine alone as long as it never joins NATO. Tensions in Europe will ease.

Wrong - Trump at least supports NATO now!

Africa - The new Secretary General will push for and get an international undertaking to focus on peace in Africa.  The result will be substantial new commitments to peace keeping forces through the continent, especially in Mali, the Congo and Nigeria.

Wrong - Not much positive to comment on here.

North Korea - Kim Jong-un will be assassinated by the military, supported by China which is getting very concerned about the nuclear weapons program of North Korea and the increasingly irrational behaviour of that country's leader. The military will immediately declare a state of Martial Law, after which it will enter into negotiations with South Korea to unify the Korean peninsula. People will freely cross the DMZ by the end of the year. Korea will be unified by the end of 2018.

Wrong - Um, not even close!

USA! USA! USA!: 

Trump's First Year - Expect a massive split between Trump and the Republican Congress, seeing Trump seek and obtain allies among the Democrats to keep most of Obamacare intact while revamping the tax code so as to tax the wealthy more, transferring tax cuts to the middle class and poor. Trump will also refuse to sign any legislation until congress agrees to term limits and campaign financing reform - millions of Americans will take to the streets to support him, and the Congress - both the Republicans and Democrats - will fold. He will launch more vigorous reviews of refugees, but nothing like a ban on all Muslims; he will expel illegal immigrant criminals from the USA, while hinting at a possible path to normalization short of citizenship, both of which will totally confound his critics. His approval rating will hit 75%.

Wrong - Um, no.

Canadian Economy:

Housing - Expect the bubble to start to implode. It will start with a very slow drop in housing prices, 3% this year nationally. With interest rates at historic lows, the B of C will drop them even more to try to keep the bubble afloat. It will fail...the big implosion comes next year, and will see a 50% drop in prices in Vancouver, and 40% in Toronto with a national decline of 10%.

OMG!  Right! - Prices are down the last three straight months, down 2.34% Canada-wide. 

Growth - Canada will enter into recession again as the world's economy slows, specifically Europe and China.

Wrong - Growing, still, just about everywhere.

Deficit - All provincial governments and the federal government will run larger than anticipated deficits. Ontario - the most indebted sub-national government on Earth - will need a cash infusion from Ottawa. The year 2018 will see the start of a decade of significant austerity that makes what happened under Harper look mild.

Wrong - Deficits are lower than predicted.

Banks - The main Canadian banks will go from the world's darlings during the last recession, to being seen as a very significant risk. Expect 20% declines in share prices.

Wrong - They have peaked.

Stocks/Investments:  

Have you been reading my other recent posts?

S&P 500 - Expect 3% rise, then a 20% decline below 1,700 by the fall.

DOW - Expect a 3% rise, then a 25% decline below 15,000 by the fall.

Europe - Expect no rise, then a 35% decline by the fall.

Canada - Expect a 1% rise, then a 30% decline to below 11,000 by the fall.

Wrong - The era of free money continues to prime the pump.

This year could hearken an era of zero stock market price growth similar to what has afflicted Japan for 25 years as politicians worldwide lack the guts to deal with the need to deleverage economies from fiscal and monetary stimulus. The problem with addictive drugs is that they eventually stop working, and you need them just to feel normal...welcome to the stimulus addicted normal.

World Economies:

In general, recessions worldwide. They will be far worse in Europe. This is the year that the stimulus stopped working.

Wrong - The stimulus continues to prime the pump.

China:

Changes in this country will rock the world...

Economy - A significant recession will hit, leading to...

Stock and Housing Markets - A collapse of the housing and stock markets, leading to massive losses on the part of small investors, leading to...

Military Aggression - A military adventure against Japan in the South China Sea to deflect internal dissension (see above), leading to...

Purge - The purge of hard-core Communists by President Xi Jinping will continue and pick up steam, including revelations that these people orchestrated a mass harvesting of human organs from Falun Gong members with the subsequent killing of hundreds of thousands of these people, leading to...

Democracy - The establishment of an independent commission to recommend a path forward for China to move to a democratic form of government.

WOW!

Wrong - The Communist Party continues to reign unimpeded.

Popular Culture:

One word.....DISCO!




Right - It never died!

The End of Trump Neutrality?

We are about to see the end of Net Neutrality, and that could be very bad for Donald Trump.

On this Wednesday, I think it is a given that the Federal  Communications Commission in the USA will allow internet service providers to discriminate between customers, offering different packages for different levels of services. This practice is illegal now as the internet is regulated like a public utility – e.g. think water. If you offer water for sale, you must offer the same water to everyone in your area at the same price.

After Wednesday, this utility status will almost 100% be over for internet services. I say this because I am fairly certain that the wealthy corporations that own internet services in the USA, and who have no doubt bought every single politician who can possibly influence the FCC decision, will have made sure to arrange to get the decision they want.

As with medical care, Americans are about to get gouged to the bone for internet services as well. The main lies that will be told to justify this will be that this will enable competition  - internet services are mainly monopolies in the USA now now; and the development of new programming and content - in a country with the most prolific program development on planet earth.

This means that the price of the internet will be rising dramatically throughout the USA. Again, this could be very bad for Donald Trump.

So far, nothing has stuck to President Trump.

Not his shameless lies – too numerous to count.

Not his use of Twitter to engage in banter that reduces his office to something like the level of a playground spat between five year olds.

Not his history of shameless treatment of women - even in the midst of what may be a cultural revolution regarding how women are treated by people in power.

Not an ever-increasing list of charges related to dealings with Russia by his Trump election-team associates – even when the US intelligence services have confirmed, and he has agreed, that Russia tried to subvert that last US presidential election.

Not his relentless failure to move on the marquee aspects of his electoral agenda ahead – no repeal of Obamacare; no 45% tariff on China or declaration that China is a currency manipulator; no balanced federal budget or any chance of the debt being paid; no economic growth of 4% a year; no new border wall that Mexico will pay for; no tax reform giving families of two a 35% tax cut; no lowering the business tax rate to 15% (it will likely be 20%.)

Not his cavalier foreign policy that threatens peace on earth – including: baiting the madman in North Korea; recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in an obvious attempt to divert attention from the Mueller probe; and, tepid support for NATO in the face of an increasingly aggressive Russia.

Trump’s success to date has come down to his fabulous talent for unifying his tribe – the Trump Republicans – and his useful allies in the press. This may be about to end.

None of the issues noted above actually hits home with his supporters. They likely don’t care about things like the recognition of Jerusalem, and they will give him a pass on anything that requires Congressional approval, like tax reform.

But they may not give him a pass when they have to pay 100% more for internet access that is actually worse than what they have now, which is a very real scenario after Net Neutrality disappears on Wednesday.

All politics is local, and the primary consideration for all voters is their pocketbook. Issues that speak to billions and trillion of dollars, like the corporate tax give-away that is making its way through the Congress, are too remote for most voters to grasp or care about. But raising the price of internet access even by $20 a month will strike home with everyone, everywhere in that country, including Trump’s base. Unlike the issues above, he will be blamed, personally.

It is worth noting that only about 75% of Americans are using the internet – placing the USA 34th in the world in terms of internet usage. I would think that this absolutely disgraceful level of internet usage is to be expected in a country where one in eight people live on food stamps, and likely can’t afford any internet access at all. How many people will be losing their access in coming years and months as American corporate providers squeeze the citizens of that country for all they are worth?

Taxes? We Don't Pay No Stinking Taxes!

Step right up folks, witness the greatest tax give-away in human history!!!

The US Congress is about to approve a cut in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which is simply awesome! When you consider that the effective rate is actually about 20% already, this may mean that some US corporations may soon pay an effective rate of….wait for it….ZERO PERCENT, depending on what generous write-offs stay in place!

But wait! There is MORE!!

The USA requires American corporations to pay tax on their foreign earnings. Right now, there is between $1.6 - $2.1 Trillion in corporate profits overseas that has not been returned to the USA in order to avoid taxes on that money.

This works out to between $560 Million and $735 Million in tax revenue at the 35% rate, or between $320 Million and $420 Million in tax revenue at the effective rate that has not been remitted to the tax man because these taxes are not owed until they actually land in the USA. The higher number here is actually larger that the US Government’s deficit for this year. If it were to be remitted, the US Government would have a surplus.

So, what is coming?

The US Congress will reduce the rate of corporate taxation on this foreign-earned revenue to 10% on what they actually have overseas now, and then to zero after that. This has been proposed to encourage these companies to actually bring their profits back to America, and pay any tax.

Get it?

The Congressmen, who have been bought by these same corporations, are proposing to soak the US Government for between $525 Million at the top end and $160 Million at the bottom end in tax revenue lost to the US Government. They will then ensure that the US Government gets nothing from the foreign profits of US Corporations ever again. Has there ever been a greater tax give-away in human history!?

Hmm...there is a thought. Why would Congress not tell these companies that the rate will go up to 50% within a year of they do not remit their foreign profits at the 35% rate, or these profits will be imputed to their domestic operations and taxed accordingly? That would definitely get this money flowing into the US Treasury!!

Well, we all know why such an approach is impossible. This “pay your fair share of taxes owing” approach presupposes, again, that Congress - Republicans and Democrats - aren’t actually owned by corporate America.

Reality - US corporations dictated the tax reform bill now going through Congress, and US Congressmen know their place.

I should add that a zero tax rate on foreign corporate earnings is not abnormal. But US corporations owe hundreds of millions of dollars NOW.  There is no excuse for not seeking to have all taxes that are owed remitted asap. The little people have to pay all of the tax they owe - why are these corporations getting a free ride?  

Is it because they invest and create jobs? This money was earned OVERSEAS! Why is the US Congress rewarding US corporations that invest and create jobs OUTSIDE of the USA?

This gift to US corporations underscores just about everything wrong in that country today - there is one America for the rich and their corporations, and one for everyone else. This will not last, and it may not end well.

Flynn!!!

Well, I guess The Donald doesn’t read my blog! I advised him to pardon Flynn and his son asap and before Mueller got to him...too late!

We need to talk collusion.

The Right Wing press in the USA is screaming three things.

First, this conviction is not proof of collusion. Proof of this would require proof of actual cooperation between Russia and the Trump campaign to subvert the last presidential election. They are correct in their assertion.

Second, they are asserting that the thing that Flynn has been charged with, namely lying to the cops, refers to events that happened after the election, so again, no proof of collusion. They are also right - Flynn was not cooperating with Russians to steal the US election during the election.

Finally, they are saying that the National Security Advisor is supposed to talk to people as a new administration is being formed - that this was normal.

Well, no.

Dealing with the last point first.

The US intelligence services have confirmed that Russia tried to subvert the last presidential election in the USA. Even Trump accepts this now. Because of this, any conversations between any officials and Russia in or around the last election are therefore immediately suspect. And Flynn lied to the FBI about those same chats to the point that he is now a convicted felon (as did Papodopoulos). Sorry, this was not business as usual.

Regarding the other two points above - there is no proof of actual collusion, and Flynn could not have been the one cooperating with Russia during the election - why is his arrest and conviction devastating for Trump?

Flynn will now testify that he discussed the issue of sanctions with the Ambassador from Russia after the election, at the request of a Trump transition team official, who is likely Kushner.

This matters because the collusion would have presumably been in the form of a deal - Russia helps with the election, and the Trump administration gives something in return, in this case, a relaxation of the sanctions on Russia that were imposed as a result of its annexation of Crimea.

If this was the deal, then the fact that Flynn was charged stemming from things that happened after the election, or that he could not have been part of any collusion during the election - the things now claimed by the Right Wing press to excuse this - are completely irrelevant.

Flynn’s role was not the subverting of the election, but the delivery of the quid pro quo after the election, namely the relaxation of sanctions. His role in this was therefore absolutely crucial - he may have been the conduit for the payoff to Russia for its help in beating Clinton.

It is important to note that Flynn only got nailed on one charge – nothing about failing to register as a foreign agent, and/or making other false or misleading statements. I think Mueller and crew had him dead to rights on all of this other stuff. That he got away with only one charge, and his son was not charged at all, suggests to me that he had lots of helpful information to trade in order to make the other stuff go away. He may even testify that he was instructed by Trump himself to make the contacts to Russia regarding the sanctions. And...maybe he can even help put together an obstruction of justice charge related to the Comey firing.

What is certain is that we do not know the whole story yet, and I now suspect it is exceptionally damaging for Trump.

“NO COLLUSION!”

In an era of shameless lying in sports, the entertainment industry, and politics, this may prove to be the most significant lie of our age.