It seems like Donald Trump has an impossible task. He is far enough behind Joe Biden in public opinion polls in key battleground states in the United States that it seems impossible that he can win the presidential election on November 3, 2020.
In fact, Trump barely won in 2016. His margin of victory was razor-thin in Pennsylvania (0.8%), Florida (1%), Michigan (0.2%) and Wisconsin (0.8%). Biden now leads in all of these states, as well as in North Carolina and Arizona.
The numbers seem clear. All Biden has to do to become the next president is win his home state, plus one of any of the above-mentioned states. Absent a massive last-week surprise that badly cuts into his support, this seems sure to happen.
Trump and his foreign allies are working on such a surprise. Giuliani has "discovered" e-mails from a laptop that Biden's son apparently left at a computer repair shop some time ago, and has release these e-mails for all to see.
The FBI is investigating. It is important to note that no one is alleging that anyone committed a crime here. This is 100% spin. The source of this leak will eventually be revealed. If the true source is Russian hackers, the former mayor of New York will have some explaining to do.
Donald Trump would not be the President of the United States if Hillary Clinton had run a competent campaign in 2016. Trump ran a very good campaign four years ago, but hers was substandard to say the least. Trump didn't really win so much as she lost.
Biden is running a normal, standard political campaign. In such a situation, a political opportunist like Trump simply should not be able to win.
Regardless of the polls, this will be much closer than people think, largely owing to vote suppression tactics by Republicans, especially in Florida.
Prediction...Biden will win the Electoral College by 10 to 20 votes.
