Putin and Biden - Let's Make a Secret Deal

I suspect that there will be no invasion of Ukraine. 

Why?  

Putin has demanded that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO.  I think that the Americans will agree. In particular, I think Biden will promise Putin that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, and he will also ask that Putin keep this promise secret. This approach is consist with Biden's emerging foreign policy philosophy - The Biden Doctrine - of matching America's commitments to America's interests. The USA has no observable interest in defending Ukraine from Russia. NATO's expansion is probably over.

The precedent for this may be the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the crisis was resolved, in part, when the Americans undertook to withdraw missiles from Turkey in return for the USSR withdrawing missiles from Cuba. In order to not look like they had appeased the Soviets, the Americans asked that their promise be kept secret.  They removed their missiles six months after the Soviets removed missiles from Cuba.

For an awesome series on the Cuban Missile Crisis, please see here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEXjoBe5ZdI&list=PLrG5J-K5AYAWbzTXiTzPEFQHLoozkqchz

On the Biden Doctrine, Biden faced a mass of criticism for pulling out of Afghanistan last year. Is anyone now complaining that the USA is no longer spending its money and shedding American blood in Afghanistan?  

Nope.

Putin Has A Point

 Here is a map of Russia and Ukraine...

If Ukraine joined NATO, Russia would face a hostile alliance with a bridgehead jutting right into the heart of their country. NATO says it is peaceful, but Russia sees NATO as a threat. Including Ukraine in the alliance would be adding one country too many. Doing this would be almost guaranteed to spark a violent reaction from Russia. No one has an interest in this, especially the Ukrainians, as it is in their country that any violent reaction would likely be focused.

At the start of WW1, Russia had the fourth largest economy on Earth. One horrible world war; one horrible civil war; a second more horrible world war; seventy years of Communism; forty years of Cold War; and a botched return to normalcy after the Cold War later, and the combined GDP of NATO is about thirty times that of Russia. No country on Earth exhibits more failed promise than the one that Putin leads. That country deserves our condolences, not our apprehension.

Russia will only become a real threat if it is truly provoked. We need to make sure to not provoke it.

And Ukraine? Would being militarily neutral, but free to join any economic and political collectives it prefers really be an awful a situation? It works well for Finland.

The West needs to look in the mirror, and realize that this time, we may be the bully.

Cruzing for a "Terrorist" Bruising

Ted Cruz has claimed that the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 was a "terrorist" act.  According to one journalist from CNN, he has claimed this at least 17 times.

Last week he claimed it again, and Tucker Carlson from Fox "News" took him to task for it. Under pressure from Carlson, Cruz backtracked his comments and claimed that he was "sloppy" and "dumb" in using the term "terrorist". In spite of his pathetic groveling. Carlson would have none of it. See here...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/08/ted-cruz-capitol-attack-tucker-carlson-interview

It is worth noting that Carlson claimed in the interview that “You called this a ‘terror attack’ when by no definition was it a terror attack,”...  Carlson has been spreading relentless lies about that day, including a documentary that claimed that the attack was a "false flag" incident that was orchestrated by the deep state, that is, by US security services. 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/nov/04/tucker-carlson/tucker-carlsons-conspiracy-theory-about-fbi-and-ja/

Get it?  The attack never happened, but if it did, it was encouraged and orchestrated by the government!

By "no definition" a terrorist act? Here is a general definition of the word "terrorist"...

..."a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims." (see below for source)

On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters used violence and intimidation to try to coerce US lawmakers to stop the political act of certification of the 2021 presidential election. In short, "people" used "violence and intimidation" against "civilians" for "political aims". 

This isn't hard.  The events of January 6, 2021 were, by definition, "terrorist" in nature. 

What is scary is that Carlson is leading a massive propaganda campaign to foster denial of this basic reality. Many, many people believe him.

What is scarier is that Cruz has presidential ambitions. How would an utterly spineless weasel like this stand up to a guy like Putin? How do the citizens of Texas keep electing this man?

This is what it is like living in the shadows of weasels.

Source - https://www.google.com/search?q=definition+of+terorist&rlz=1C1CHZN_enCA915CA920&oq=definition+of+terorist&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i10i433j0i10l7j46i10.6944j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

USA...Civil Strife, Not Civil War

Will the USA dismember into civil war? It already did that once, and many prognosticators are predicting that it may do so again sometime soon.

The USA will not move to civil war for the following reasons.

1. Been There, Done That. The USA already had a civil war, and the results were not happy.  That memory is still relatively fresh...no one will not want a repeat.

2. The Rule of Law is Alive and Well in America. Those who would rise up against the state will be stopped and prosecuted. The attempt to stop a constitutional process in aid of a hopeless attempt to hold on to power by Trump on Jan 6, 2021 has resulted in 700 charges, and counting. Almost no one on either side of the aisle questions jury trials.

3. The Military is Loyal. Any attempt to overthrow a democratically-elected government in the USA would be met by the United States Army whose officer corps is loyal. Such an uprising has no chance of success.

4. Politics Still Mostly Works. The political system in the USA looks incredibly messy at the moment. That is completely normal. Congress can still come together and make deals in the national interest, and that is all that ultimately matters. 

5. The USA is Dealing with Race. George Floyd changed the USA. The result will be less racism, more national harmony and better policing in coming years. While there is a political divide, there actually is a counter movement toward increased racial harmony which matters much more. The USA will emerge more, not less unified in ten years.

6. Biden is Finally Starting to Lead. When the President of the United States assumes the bully pulpit, the result often has a dramatic effect on the psyche of that country. Biden has come out swinging against the anti-democratic leanings of Trump et al...he will succeed in pushing them back as he has the high ground, and they don't.

7. The Hate is Balanced by Liberty. The Dems and GOP may hate each other, but they mostly do not question the right of the other to be "idiots". The essence of any civil war is the belief that other side has no right to think what they think and to hold whatever political opinions that want to hold. This is mostly not the case in the USA, where the vast majority of people respect the right of others to have their own opinions, even if they are considered to be wrong.

8. Noise Does Not Equal Civil War. The many irresponsible commentators and agitators on both sides of the aisle castigate each other verbally and spread lies, but no one is seriously suggesting that they "take out" their opponents. The propaganda on both sides is mostly infantile and meant to entertain...no one will fight for a sound bite. Hmmm...is it "Propatainment"?

9. No Regular Fist Fights Yet! The two sides have hardly even started fighting yet! Encounters are often heated, but it is VERY rare for the two sides of the American divide to go at each other physically...the cops always get on the way. 

10. The Democratic Process Works. America has free and fair elections. Messy, yes, but they are legitimate. The ballot box is still where the political contests of that country play themselves out. Almost no one questions this.

There are other points that I could make. There may be significant strife in the USA in coming years, but there will be no civil war.

Peace in our time!!