Is Trump a Fascist?

Is Donald Trump a Fascist?

The ANTIFA people certainly think so. As well, there are many in the left-of-centre media who regularly assert that Trump is a fascist. 

Regarding the voting public, a poll taken by Ipsos and ABC News in October, 2024 revealed that a whopping 24% of registered voters considered him to be a fascist. See here.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-fascist-concerns-poll/story?id=115083795

So, is he a fascist? Answering this question requires that we ask the question, "What is a "fascist"? 

Below are the main characteristics of "fascism", and an analysis of whether or not they apply to Donald Trump and his government. A grade out of 10 is applied to each characteristic - all debatable, of course. (With thanks to the analysis at https://osbcontent.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/PC-00466.pdf. However, the board at mewetre.blogspot.com has added a few characteristics that this analysis misses that are crucial to an understanding of fascism, which are added at 15 and 16.)

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism - Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays. 

This could apply to America and to most Americans. There is nothing unique about Donald Trump regarding this first characteristic. 8 out of 10 for the entire country, and Trump.

2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights - Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc. 

Trump's approach to illegal immigrants and others sees these people denied some basic legal process rights. While disturbing, this is pretty minor compared to what actual fascist regimes do, which is torture "undesirables" or line people up against a wall and shoot them. In an American context, the denial of due process rights to some persons seems fascist, and is certainly out of line. However, for real fascists, it is laughable. 2 out of 10.

3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause - The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc. 

Trump has used hate against identifiable groups as a prime motivator and unifier of members of his MAGA tribe. This is often overtly racist. It is his major political modus operandi. 10 out of 10.

4. Supremacy of the Military - Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized. 

Again, this is not just Trump, it is the entire country. If you are reading this, you are likely starting to notice a trend, which is that it isn't just Trump who exhibits at least some fascist characteristics, but the United States itself. The military is essentially venerated in that country. 10 out of 10 for the entire country, and Trump.

5. Rampant Sexism - The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy. 

Is Trump the sexist, or has he tapped into rampant sexism within the United States itself? In fact, it's both. 9 out of 10 for Trump and the Republican Party.

6. Controlled Mass Media - Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common. 

Can you say hello to Fox and Truth Social? 

Media control is not absolute as the United States has Freedom of the Press, and swathes of US media are controlled by Trump's opposition. Because of this, outright government censorship is almost non-existent. Nonetheless, there is no question that Trump and his minions control huge sections of the media landscape in the USA, with Trump himself having his own personal electronic bully pulpit. 7 out of 10.

7. Obsession with National Security - Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses. 

Fearmongering is as American as apple pie. There is no United States Government that has not and does not do this, whether Republican or Democrat. This is an American characteristic, not just a Trump one. 8 out of 10 for the entire country, and Trump.

8. Religion and Government are Intertwined - Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions. 

The American approach to religion is encapsulated in the idea that religious worship is a personal matter, and there should be a 100% separation between church and state. This is the state of affairs in the United States where religion, in an of itself, has no virtually role in the public affairs of the nation. 

However, Republicans are almost constantly trying to introduce this into the public sphere, including requiring the Ten Commandments in schools, and asking that religious-based interpretations of how the Earth was formed be taught in schools, amongst other things. This is not new - think of the Scopes Monkey Trial of 1925. Trump himself is not a religious person, in fact, one may think of the word "sinner" when he comes to mind. He has allowed for some religious discourse to enter the lexicon of his government, and he has certainly not spoken out against attempts by Republicans to introduce religion into public affairs. 

In assessing this characteristic against Trump himself, we need to admit that he doesn't give a hoot about this, and his support of religious Republicans is actually tepid, at best. He is not trying to turn the USA into a Christian nation. (This might change if he saw how much cash televangelists rake in!) 2 out of 10.

9. Corporate Power is Protected - The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite. (Note - this needs to be modified. In a truly fascist country, private enterprise is subservient to the state, which only exists to protect and enhance the nation. Private owners do not control the direction of their businesses, but follow the direction given by the state. Any private business person who thwarts the state loses their private holdings as a matter of course. See 15 below.)

OMG! It is arguable that this man is in government for the sole purpose of personal enrichment as well as the enrichment of the economic class from which he was spawned. The state does not control business in America but that aspect is covered in 15 below. For the grift, give Trump 10 out of 10.

10. Labor Power is Suppressed Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed . 

Unions in the USA have been under siege for decades. This is not really about fascism, but about monopoly capitalism and oligarchy. Trump's assault on illegal immigrants will ironically strengthen organized labour in America by removing a group of workers who have bid down the price of labour for at least a generation. He isn't a fan of unions, but regardless of his railing against unions, his concern isn't really political, it's economic. 3 out of 10.

11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts - Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts is openly attacked, and governments often refuse to fund the arts. 

Free expression has arguably been under assault in higher education in the USA for years, both from the Left and Right, depending on the institution. There has been an obvious party line in certain institutions which has been rigorously enforced to the detriment of open debate - detractors are ostracized; their careers destroyed. 

Donald Trump's assault on higher education is seemingly about reversing totalitarian tendencies in certain specific institutions. In fact, he likely doesn't give a rat's ass about free speech, but these institutions are the hotbed of many of his most vocal critics, so he has taken them on very aggressively. This isn't about fascism; this is personal for him. 2 out of 10. 

12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations. 

Again, this is American as apple pie and the electric chair. There is no national police force in America. The vast majority of police follow laws regarding the use of force. Civil liberties are, in the main, protected by the courts. 

Trump's assault on illegal immigrants and stationing of the military in some cities to protect federal property are unprecedented in the modern era, and do show fascist tendencies. However, while worrisome, this is not nearly at the level that one would find in a truly fascist country, and his efforts are rather tame compared to what an archetypal fascist would do. 3 out of 10.

13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption - Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders. 

It's good to be the king! Trump is in power for the sole purpose of taking care of himself and his cronies. There is no grift like it! 10 out of 10.

14. Fraudulent Elections - Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections. 

Did Trump really lose the 2020 presidential election? Yes. While both the Democrats and Republicans try to cheat, in the main, elections are free and fair in the USA. This simply doesn't happen in fascist countries. 

But what about Trump? 

He loves the grift that he can foist on his country from being President of the United States. He has little respect for American democracy, happily benefitting from Russian interference to gain office in 2016. He relentlessly smears his opponents, but to be fair, this is normal for almost all American politicians now, he just does it better than anyone else.

This is the most disturbing aspect of this analysis... 

Expect Trump to try to stay on for a third term, or to refuse to leave office at the end of his term after declaring a national emergency. To preempt the Conclusion below, he's a grifter, not really a fascist, but from the perspective of democracy, the effect is the same. 10 out of 10.

15. Supremacy of the State - The state is the primary tool of fascists for the manifestation and propagation of the nation. This sees the state involved in all aspects of life in the community: from children's clubs and civic organizations; to all aspects of economic life including state direction of private enterprise; to control of media; to positive portrayals of the nation in the arts which are 100% controlled by the state. The nation is supreme. The state only exists for the nation, and the state is everywhere in everything.

This is not America, and is not Donald Trump. While America has fascist tendencies, it's obsession with seeing the state as antithetical to personal freedom separates America from actual fascist countries. These people do take individual freedom seriously. They are not fascists. 0 out of 10.

16. Cult of Personality - Fascist countries are lead by great leaders who cultivate a cult of personality, with those leaders seen as the embodiment of the nation that is at the core of fascism.

10 out 0f 10. No further comment required.

Conclusion: So is Donald Trump a fascist?

He certainly has fascist tendencies, especially related to characteristics such as the cult of personality; American nationalism and militarism; racism via the scapegoating of certain groups; his treatment of democracy; and most importantly, because of the grift, and the fact that he runs the country primarily for himself and his buddies. But he simply does not meet the test of it comes to crucial aspects such as the need for a national police force to enforce the will of the state, and most importantly, the role of the state itself. 

It is this last issue that is crucial - simply put, if someone doesn't favour inserting the state into literally every aspect of life in order to protect and enhance the the life of the nation, then they aren't a fascist. 

Think of Italy under Mussolini or Spain under Franco. The state completely dominated all aspects of life in those countries to make the nation come alive. Those men were fascists, and as such would rate close to 10 out of 10 on all aspects noted above. 

Trump simply doesn't score the same, especially on the issue of the role of the state. The reason for this should be crystal clear. No business person would agree that the state should direct their business affairs for any reason. Trump is a businessman first; everything else second. Fascism is bad for business, so he isn't an fascist.

So what is he?

Again, he is a businessman! But not just any businessman - he is a shockingly crooked businessman!

See here...not paying small business people...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/

And here...bankruptcies screwing investors out of their cash...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/

And more recently, here...grift and conflicts of interest while in office...

https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-investigations/crew-is-tracking-trumps-unprecedented-corruption-again/

He's not a fascist. 

He's arguably just a crook enjoying the greatest grift ever! 

But let's be fair, the Clintons weren't exactly paragons of virtue. 

Reality - many of them are "on the take", he's just better at it than the others, and he tends toward aspects of fascism to keep the grift alive.

.  

Comey Lives!

Former FBI Director James Comey has been charged with making false statements to Congress and obstruction of justice. 

Specifically, it is alleged that he lied to Congress when he said that he did not authorize a leak of information about an investigation into Hillary Clinton, and that in doing so he obstructed Congress. 

It appears that there is solid evidence that he did that very thing. 

Andrew McCabe, formerly of he FBI, previously confirmed that a leak by him to a Wall Street Journal reporter about that investigation was authorized by Comey. 

If this is true, then Comey is a criminal.

Ask Trump's former lawyer what lying to Congress means. For Mr. Cohen, it meant that he was sentenced to three years in jail.

Many in the press in the USA are saying that these charges show that the DOJ is now doing Trump's bidding. If this means they are catching criminals who previously perverted the American political system for their own ends, let's hope to see more.

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Stock Market Doom, Again!!

The board here at mewetree.blogspot.com has been predicting a stock market crash and recession for years, and starting in 2019. 

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-curve-invertedrecession-coming.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2019/08/bubble-ii-deeper-dive.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2019/10/best-recession-analysis.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2020/01/bubble-trouble.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2024/10/stock-market-time-to-sell.html

Of course, 2020 saw the COVID-19 pandemic begin, and with that, a government-sponsored depression as economies were shut down. We then saw a massive recovery after the pandemic subsided.

During the pandemic, governments and central banks poured cash into the world's economies to keep them afloat. That stimulus followed a decade of massive stimulus that itself followed the financial crisis in 2008-09 which prompted a massive asset bubble that was about to burst when COVID-19 hit.

Well, it is 2019 again, albeit with even more stimulus and even bigger asset bubbles this time. A recession and stock market crash are coming, the only question is when.

The indictors that matter are as follows.

Yield Curve: The Yield Curve in the USA was inverted from July of 2022 to August of 2024; for 25 straight months. It has never been inverted for this long. It has been back to normal for the last year.

Yield curves invert when the interest rates paid on short-term government debt are higher than the interest rates paid on long-term government debt. The yield inverts when the smart money starts to buy long-term government debt as a safe haven from an expected stock market pull-back and recession, thereby driving yields down as the price of long-term debt rises.  A recession and stock market decline ALWAYS follows an inversion, specifically after the inversion ends and the yields go back to normal.

The world has been due for a recession for over a year now. It will happen, but no one knows when.

Shiller PE: This is a measure of the ten year trailing price to earnings ratio, usually measured against the S&P 500 index. It's historic and normal level should be about 16. Today it is at 39.86, which is the second-highest level ever, outside of the dot.com bubble in the early 2000's. This is literally screaming that the stock market is massively overvalued. Going back to normal would see the S&P 500 drop from about 6,650 today to about 3,200. 

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Elevated stock prices made sense when interest rates were at historically low levels. They don't make sense now. The market will tank, but no one knows when.

Buffet Indicator: This is Warren Buffet's market indicator, and it measures the total value of the stock market divided by total GDP.  The historic trend line for this indictor suggest that this should equate to about 125%. Today it is at 217%, which is more than two standard deviations from the norm. This suggests that the market is strongly overvalued.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

Warren Buffet is holding over $348 Billion in cash right now. That is the largest cash position (really mostly T-bills) that he has ever taken. He is the most successful investor in history. His cash position is screaming that the market will tank, but no one knows when.

It will happen - but no one knows when.

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Is Canada America's "Best" Trading Partner??

President Donald Trump has launched a world-wide trade war. He has applied tariffs against all countries on Earth that have significant economies, except Russia, in an attempt to adjust trade relations, and return manufacturing to America from countries that he alleges are "ripping off America."

Some countries are obviously ripping America off. Those countries have non-tariff barriers that make it virtually impossible for American companies to sell products. Others are long standing trade partners that have trade surpluses with America in some areas, and trade deficits in others. President Trump is concerned about manufacturing in particular, as he wants manufacturing jobs to return to the USA.  

Of America's main trading partners, which one is the best, with "best" meaning that this country imports the most stuff from the United States, and therefore more willingly accepts the idea that trade should follow comparative advantage, where countries should just do what they do best, and trade between these countries allows for each to benefit from the other's comparable economic advantages?

Total imports of American goods and services to a country does not tell the tale of who is America's best trading partner. To get a sense of the "best", it is suggested that an analysis of imports of a per capita basis would be better as it would show the level to which the citizens and businesses in a given country are comfortable with importing both goods and services from the United States.

America's main trading partners, and their relative imports of American-made goods and services on a per capita basis, are listed below (2024 numbers in $ US). Services are included with goods as services are a massive proportion of the American economy, and inclusion of services provides a better picture of the overall trade relationship.

China - $164.6 Billion/1.415 Billion people = $116 per citizen

European Union - $630.43 Billion/450 Million people = $1,401 per citizen

Japan - $85 Billion/123 Million people = $691 per citizen

UK - $78.3 Billion/69.23 Million people = $1,130 per citizen

Australia - $61.6 Billion/27.2 Million people = $2,265 per citizen

South Korea - $87.2 Billion/51.75 Million people = $1,690 per citizen

Mexico - $384.4Billion/130.9 Million people = $2,937 per citizen

Canada - $764.9 Billion/41.29 Million people = $18,525 per citizen

For every $1 US in goods and services that China imports from the USA on a per capita basis, Canada imports $159 US. 

Canada's relatively massive imports of goods and services from the USA are driven both by acceptance of the basic precepts of free trade, and by the very close proximity of the two countries. Still, it is what it is - based on who actually imports goods and services from America, there is simply no question which country is America's best trading partner.

Note - the board of mewetree.blogspot.com is Canadian and drives a car that was made in America. Of nine homes in the neighborhood, four have American-made cars in their driveways. How many neighborhoods in China, the EU, Japan or South Korea could say the same thing?

 

Trump Fraud Case - Update #2

The team here at Mewetree.blogspot.com has questioned the validity of the fraud case against Donald Trump in New York State.  Please see below...

mewetree: Trump "Convicted"!! - Trump's Fraudulent "Fraud" Conviction

mewetree: Trump Fraud Case - Update

A New York appeals court has throw out the massive $450 Million penalty applied in that case against Donald Trump and his business corporation. 

The court said this...

In the prevailing opinion, the judges wrote, “While the injunctive relief ordered by the court is well crafted to curb defendants’ business culture, the court’s disgorgement order, which directs that defendants pay nearly half a billion dollars to the State of New York, is an excessive fine that violates the Eighth Amendment of the United States Constitution.”

The appeals court left restrictions on Trump's business activities in place.

This decision will be appealed. It will get to the United States Supreme Court where it will be entirely reversed.

To recap, the decision is based on the use of consumer protection law, where it was alleged that Trump defrauded his creditors by overvaluing his properties in order to get higher loans than he was entitled to. His creditors have never complained about those loans. It is a consumer protection case where no "consumer" thinks they were defrauded. 

The United States Supreme Court will be savage in its condemnation of this obvious prosecutorial and judicial overreach. It is possible that both the prosecutor and presiding judge will face sanction by their relevant law societies stemming from their participation in this outrage. 

Trump's Tariffs Will Make Trade Great Again!

President Trump took office to start his second term at 11:00 am, January 20, 2025. A key plank in his electoral platform was to introduce tariffs to incentivise industry to locate to the United States to create jobs and rebuild the American industrial base. (BTW - Obama invented with word "incentivize".)

Trump's Tariff Terror was unleashed on the world on April 1, 2025. Here is President Trump on Liberation Day... 

(NB. the 70% here is on the high side and is "for effect". Trump actually imposed a basic tariff of 10%, not 70%, on April 2, 2025. Still, this looks pretty good.)

President Trump has variously imposed, stopped, reimposed and then stopped again tariffs against many of countries as negotiations proceeded to address his central claim that the entire world had been taking advantage of the United States. Because of this, it is hard to track what he has actually done vis a vis tariffs since January 20, 2025. Nonetheless, here is a good summary of what tariffs he has actually imposed since then.

January–April 2025:

• Feb 1: Imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on Chinese goods, citing national emergencies like fentanyl trafficking.
• April 2: Announced a universal 10% tariff on all imports, with higher “reciprocal” rates for countries with trade deficits.
• April 3–5: Sectoral tariffs hit foreign-made cars (25%), steel, aluminum, and copper (25%) heavily impacting Canada and Mexico.

July–August 2025:

• Trump threatened and then implemented 35% tariffs on Canadian goods, citing lack of cooperation on drug enforcement and trade retaliation.
• Tariffs on dozens of countries—including the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam—were raised to 15–20% starting August 7.
• India was hit with a 50% tariff due to its continued purchase of Russian oil, prompting a pause in U.S.-India arms deals.

As an aside, it is worth noting that President Trump's tariffs will, if continued at present rates, raise just about enough new revenue to off-set the budget deficits that the United States will run owing to the massive tax cuts to the rich that were provided by way of the Big Beautiful Bill, at least out to 2035. The rich will get tax cuts, importers and the poor and middle class will get to pay tariffs. The word you are looking for is "Oligarchy". For a previous post on new political science terminology, please see here...

mewetree: New Poli-Sci Terminology!

So how are President Trump's tariffs going to make us great again? 

Explaining this requires a quick review of economic history.

The world has moved from free trade, to isolation and tariffs, back to free trade again regularly since the British repealed the Corn Laws in 1846. The concept of free trade - that countries should concentrate on whatever economic activity in which they excel, and trade with other countries that similarly concentrate on what they excel, meaning the world will benefit from the best that every country has to offer thereby "lifting all boats" - became international economic orthodoxy very quickly thereafter. Soon after the British opened their door to free trade, everyone was on the bandwagon. By 1854, for example, Canada and the United States had concluded a Reciprocity Treaty that ran to 1866.  

Free trade promised great things for everyone, everywhere! Then politics got in the way. 

The historical epochs with free trade have relied to a very great extent on trust. In short, countries have to trust that their trading partners aren't trying to gain an unfair competitive advantage in order to continue to leave their markets open to foreign goods, services, agricultural products and raw materials. When trust has dissipated, owing either to legitimate allegations of cheating, or to other political developments that resulted in one country canceling its free trade arrangement with another to punish that country - the United States cancelled the Reciprocity Treaty with Canada in 1866 owing to British support of the Confederacy in the Civil War - then the world has returned to tariffs and isolation.

The ultimate achievement in the history of free trade was the phenomenon of Globalization that was established after the end of the Cold War. One main beneficiary of this, without question, was China. In the span of a little over a generation, China moved from Third World status, to become the second strongest economy in the world. In so doing, the Chinese likely cheated, with this cheating being a large reason why trust in free trade started to dissipate starting at least a decade ago. The specific allegations are that China cheated through subsidies, forced technology transfers, the wide-spread theft of intellectual property, and a regulatory system that favoured domestic over foreign firms.

Another huge beneficiary was Mexico, which, through a free trade agreement with the United States and Canada, has grown its manufacturing base from essentially nothing to the point where it produces 25% of all automobiles in North America, and it supplies 40% of the entire American automobile market. Like China, Mexico faces allegations that it cheats, in the case of Mexico by artificially keeping industrial wages so low that the United States and Canada cannot compete.

Regardless of the fact that Donald Trump is President of the United States, the world was moving back to tariffs and isolation because the dissipation of trust is now a world-wide phenomena. Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of retreat from the world-wide consensus that free trade is a good thing.

And what a symptom he is! 

President Trump's almost war-like assault on free trade through the invocation of unprecedented tariffs against just about every country on Earth is having the effect of pushing the entire planet very quickly into the next epoch in our collective economic history, which will be a time of isolation and tariff barriers, accompanied as it always is by economic stagnation, recession, and for some countries, depression. 

We should thank Trump for this! 

Here's why...

The move from free trade, to isolation and tariffs, then back to free trade is cyclical and normal.  

The move from isolation back to free trade stems from economic stagnation occasioned by isolation and the realization that with free trade everyone will do better. 

The move from free trade back to isolation and tariffs stems from years living comfortably with the benefits of free trade - to the point that we forget what it was like to be poor and to struggle - coupled with the end of trust usually occasioned by one country or the other cheating the system. 

We have been seeing this second movement underway for over a decade.

The move from free trade to isolation and tariffs would normally take perhaps decades, as it requires the neutering of trade systems that were themselves meant to last for decades, if not forever. If politics had continued as normal without President Trump arriving on the scene, it could have taken perhaps another ten or twenty years to get to the point where we have arrived at our foreordained future of economic stagnation from isolation and autarchy.

But Trump has pushed all of this forward at a record pace!

The speed with which he has applied tariffs and overthrown the world-wide free trade order means we may very well get to economic stagnation much faster this time - expect a world-wide recession within 12 months. This is arguably a good thing as it also means we will likely see a cyclical movement back to a free trade consensus much faster than we would have without Trump's Tariff Terror.

And so, Trump can be seen as a fortuitous catalyst for rapid cyclical economic change. In the end, Donald Trump will make Free Trade Great Again.

Thanks. 

State of the US Economy with Trump Redux

There are worrying trends in the United States economy, especially in the last six months.  

Here are some basic measures.

House Prices: After recovering post-COVID-19, median house prices in the USA have dropped by about 7% since the start of 2023. 

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Total Car Sales: Car sales in the USA rocketed after COVID-19. They have dropped on an annualized basis by 15% in just five months.

Total Vehicle Sales (TOTALSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Used Car Prices: Used car sales and prices are a key indicator of the state of the economy as they are a direct measure of how the poor and lower middle class are fairing. Here are used car prices in the USA. These prices exploded by 63% in the four years after COVID-19. Prices have dropped by 15% just in the last six months.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Used Cars and Trucks in U.S. City Average (CUSR0000SETA02) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

If these trends continue, the US economy will stagnate as housing and cars are the foundation of that economy. So far, this is not happening. Regardless of these trends, basic measures of economic performance are still holding up.  

Here they are.

Unemployment Rate: The US unemployment rate is holding around 4%. This is excellent, and near the natural rate of unemployment. If you want a job in America, you can likely find one.

The Employment Situation - June 2025

Labour Force Participation: After plummeting in COVID-19 to about 60%, this rate has recovered, and remains steady just over 62%, although it has not yet recovered to its pre-COVID-19 level.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Inflation: The Trump Tariff Terror threatens to raise inflation as tariff costs are passed on to US consumers. So far there is scant evidence of that, with the rate of inflation only rising from 2.3% in the spring, to 2.7% in June.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

Personal Debt: The proportion of annual income that is devoted to debt repayment has risen slightly to just over 11%, but is still nowhere near to its historic peak of over 15% in 2008. Those who preach about the perils of debt may be off base. Still, with higher interest rates, this could become more of a problem over time.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

Conclusion:.... 

Trump's management of the economy may be causing ripples in terms of a loss of confidence in places, and there is some cause for worry in the automobile and housing markets, but so far there is almost no evidence that he is having a negative impact on the US economy. 

(P.S. I know many of my readers want me to pillory the guy.  Sorry, the evidence simply isn't there.)

Is Carney Real?

 Please take a close look at this...

Does this not look like an AI-generated photo? 

He's walking from out of a cement railing! 

His left leg is screwed up! 

Is he walking up a step or what?  There is a step on the right, but there does not appear to be one on the left!  

The shadows from his legs are in different directions!  

The plant holder to the left looks as if it is part of the cement railing!  

The Capitol Building looks just slammed into place!

Does Carney even exist?  

Congress v Trump = Dead MAGA

The American President has levied a wide range of un precedented tariffs against about 180 nations and sub-national jurisdictions world-wide.  

The United States Constitution is crystal clear regarding the authority to levy tariffs. See here...

"Article I, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution, known as the Legislative Vesting Clause, provides that "[a]ll legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States." Article I, Section 8 includes among Congress's specific powers the power to "regulate Commerce with foreign Nations"4 and the power to "lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises." The Constitution thus gives Congress the power to enact legislation imposing tariffs on U.S. imports, although it limits this power by providing that tariffs "shall be uniform throughout the United States." (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48435)

This congressional authority over tariffs has been delegated to the President of the United States in certain circumstances.  

These include the following...

• Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 - tariffs based on national security of importation of a particular article;
• Section 338(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930 - tariffs on articles of any foreign country that discriminates against articles that affect the growth of the United States;
• The International Emergency Economic Powers Act - tariffs to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, should the President of the United States declares a national emergency with respect to such threat;
• Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 - tariffs if American rights under a trade agreement are being denied; and, 
• Section 301 - tariffs “if an act, policy or practice of a foreign country .... is unjustifiable or restricts United States commerce.” (https://cdhowe.org/publication/jon-johnson-does-a-us-president-have-the-power-to-unilaterally-impose-tariffs/)

These authorities come from the United States Congress. The tariffs that President Trump has imposed are not supported by the majority of federal legislators. It is just a matter of time before Trump loses a stand-off with Congress, and the tariffs are revoked.

On that, the United States Senate has voted to halt tariffs on Canada - 51 to 48.  The Senators in question do not accept the Trump Administration's rationale for tariffs on Canada, which is based on alleged and completely non-existent massive imports of Fentanyl. The vote has to be confirmed in the House of Representatives for the tariffs to actually be revoked. As of writing, there is no plan for this to happen.

It doesn't matter. The Senate's vote to revoke tariffs on Canada will be small potatoes compared to what is coming. As Trump's completely unprecedented and massive tariffs work their way through the world's economy, sparking inflation in the United States and an unprecedented world-wide recession, American legislators will either have to take action, or face the wrath of American voters at the mid-terms in 18 months. 

These tariffs are the solvent that will finally dissolve the glue that has kept the MAGA movement together. 

No one who is up for reelection in November, 2026 can stand for office if they did nothing to stop this economic madness. The only thing holding them back will be the prospect of delivering massive tax cuts to their corporate and wealthy benefactors - the screams of their constituents will overwhelm this inclination.

Trump is about to suffer a political defeat that may break his presidency. 

Having checked Trump in Congress, and in light of the fact that he will be a lame duck president in less than two years, Republicans may finally show some backbone and cut him loose. Other than facing one or two more impeachment trials for misbehavior in office, Trump may well spend most of his time golfing as Americans struggle to recover from the leadership of a man who has not had an original economic thought in 40 years.

This is a matter of "Shooting yourself (and the rest of the world) in the foot..." (WB 🐰) 

Amen!

Canada Will Not Become The 51st State - Here's Why...

North America is atwitter! The new American President has variously commented on the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state, or he has actually threatened to make Canada the 51st state through the use of economic pressure.

He is full of shit up to his eyeballs. Here is why...

By "51st state", what is clearly meant is that Canadians would become Americans in every sense of the word, especially when it comes to political rights. President Trump has never suggested something like territorial status for Canada, akin to the status of Puerto Rico. 

The prospect of 41 Million Canadians voting in elections for the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency will cause Republicans to reject any notions of Canadians becoming Americans. The political implications for Republicans are so dire, that Canadians will not become Americans even if they were asking for the honour (Note - spelled "honour", not "honor".)

For starters, 41 million Canadians becoming Americans would work out to about 55 seats in the House of Representatives. Looking at the results of the last five congressional elections, the largest majority that was obtained by either the Republicans or Democrats was a 47 seat majority for the Republicans in 2016. Right now, the Republicans have a razor-thin 3 seat majority.

If former Canadians could vote in US elections, recent polling shows that they would vote between 42% and 62% for the Democrats, and only 14% to 21% for the Republicans. There were a large number of undecideds in these polls. Apportioning these undecided preferences across the given results, we get about 72% support for the Democrats, and about 28% for the Republicans. If this were to hold, the Democrats would see another 38 - 40 seats in the House of Representatives each election, and the Republicans would receive about 15 - 17 seats.

Conclusion - With Canadians voting in American elections, it may be virtually impossible for the Republicans to ever win a majority in the House of Representatives, absent a generations-long demographic shift in voting patterns.

If Canada went into the United States as one state, it would get two senators. But it would also be larger than the other fifty states combined. This makes no sense. To maintain some semblance of geographic balance, and to respect the substantial cultural, economic and political differences between Canadian provinces, it would make more sense for the ten Canadian provinces to go in as separate states, with the territories accorded something like territorial or commonwealth status. 

Doing this would net Canadians twenty seats in the Senate. If present voting patterns held, Alberta and likely Saskatchewan would vote Republican; Quebec would vote for an independent senator who would easily identify with the Democrats - think in terms of a French Bernie Sanders - and the other six Canadian states would vote for the Democrats. The result would be 16 new Democratic senators to only four Republican senators.

Right now, the Republicans only have a three seat majority in the United States Senate.  

Given how close the election results normally are in the Senate, bringing Canadians into the American political fold would mean that the Republicans may not win the Senate ever again.

Finally, 41 million Canadians would get about 75 Electoral College votes in every United States presidential election (N.B. number of Senate seats plus number of seats in the House of Representatives.) If Canadian voting intentions held, and assuming that only Alberta and Saskatchewan went Republican, bringing Canadians into the United States political system would net the Democratic candidate about 60 out of a possible 75 Electoral College votes in every presidential election. 

In last year's presidential contest, Donald Trump won 312 Electoral College votes to Kamala Harris's 226. Adding likely Canadian voting results to this would have had Trump at 327, and Harris at 286, so the result would have been the same. Nonetheless, with former Canadians voting in American elections, Republican presidents would face a permanently hostile Congress.

Republicans can do math. They no doubt completely understand the implications of absorbing 41 million Canadians in to the United States political system, and that those implications would be dire for their collective political prospects. Because of this, it wouldn't happen even if Canadians were asking to join.

But that is not all....

Canadians have a different political culture and experience than that of Americans. They have a history of either voting for regional parties, or for voting for national parties with strong regional biases. This raises a delicious possibility...

What if Canadians, after having been forced to join the United States, refused to vote as either Republican or Democrats, and voted for a Canada Party instead?

A Canada Party would almost always hold the deciding vote on every single piece of legislation, and every single budget initiative in the House of Representatives and the Senate as neither the Republicans not the Democrats could normally obtain sufficient seats to constitute a majority and pass legislation without Canadian support. 

In short, to get any work done in the form of new laws or budgets, the Republicans and/or the Democrats would have to buy Canada's vote.

Canadians are very familiar with the brokerage style of politics in the USA - "You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours." One can just imagine the number of bridges to nowhere and hockey museums that Canadians' ability to blackmail the American legislative and budgetary process could buy!

And there's more!

If Canadians were forced into the American political system with full political rights, presumably they would be able to run for the office of the President of the United States! 

What would happen if a Canadian candidate for the presidency offered stronger labour protections (Note - spelled "labour" not "labor"); a "free" single-payor health care system; and the taxation of the wealthy in favour of income transfers to the poor and middle class to an American citizenry that has been duped into thinking that their subservience to the wealthy; diminishing economic well-being; and scant access to health care is "freedom"? 

These people have been betrayed by political sell-outs across the American political spectrum - both Left and Right. Would something like this coming from a Canadian presidential candidate shake up the "swamp"? 

Yup, and that's why the Democrats, who offered none of this in the last election cycle, would also not want Canadians in the American political system. 

The Democrats are sell-outs?

Here is Bernie Sanders' response to President Trump's inaugural address. It covers everything Sanders thought Trump should have addressed in his speech if he actually cared about Americans. What he didn't say was that it was also everything that Harris wouldn't or couldn't promise either. 

The Democrats know who gave her $1 Billion for her campaign, and what they are expected to not do for the American people in return. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHH-KI2yk8s

 

 

 

Trump's Executive Orders and What May Be Coming Next

Trump is leading the anti-woke reaction and is reworking America. Trump and the Republicans obviously think they are involved in a culture war for the heart and mind of America. 

Please keep the concept of culture war in mind as you read on.

The list of what Trump has done to date has no precedent in the history of the United States of America. Here is a short list of the executive orders that he has signed to date...

• Biden Reversal - passed many executive orders to reverse Biden's orders on Climate Change, gender issues, reuniting immigrant families, etc;
• Civil Service - offered buy-outs to 2.3 million government workers, ordered federal workers back to their offices full-time, froze hiring, made firing workers easier to fire;
• Spending - froze government spending;
• USAID - essentially closed USAID, telling workers across the world that they had 30 days to get back to America;
• Oversight - fired 17 inspectors general who oversaw federal ethics and accountability within the federal government;
• Federal Lawyers - fired lawyers who led January 6th and Trump prosecutions, reassigned senior counsel to support the crack-down on illegal immigrants, and froze new federal civil rights and environmental protection litigation;
• FEMA - will review the Federal Emergency Management Agency to assess whether it should be closed;
• Firings - fired Biden nominees, and certain high-profile persons, including the first woman to lead the Coast Guard;
• DEI - ended Diversity, Equity and Inclusion policies in the federal government, including putting all DEI staff on leave, and revoking the Equal Employment Opportunity Order of President Johnson from 1965;
• Labour - fired two board members of the National Labour Relations Board and two commissioners of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, essentially halting the protection of working people from illegal labour practices and discrimination at the federal level;
• Pardons - gave pardons to 1,500 people convicted of crimes reflated to January 6th, including those convicted of violent crimes and sedition;
• Birth Rights - ended automatic citizenship for children of illegal immigrants born in the USA;
• Immigration - commenced rounding up and deporting illegal immigrants;
• Tariffs - invoked new 10% tariffs against China, and 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, which have been delayed for 30 days;
• Trans Rights - banned biological males from competing in women's collegiate sports, stopped gender care for children;
• Gender - declared that the policy of the government is that there are only two genders;
• Energy - declared a national energy emergency to facilitate "Drill, baby drill!", and opened Alaska to drilling;
• DOGE - established the Department of Government Efficiency, and give Musk and his minions unprecedented access to the personal and financial information of millions of people without first obtaining security clearances;
• Climate Change - withdrew from the Paris Accords, eliminated Biden-era supports for electric vehicles;
• Geographic Names - renamed the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, and restored the name of Mount McKinley;
• Death Penalty - instructed the Attorney General to seek the death penalty in the case of the murder of a police officer (presumably, unless the officer was murdered on January 6th);
• Wall - signed an order to keep building the wall;
• Health - withdrew the USA from the WHO;
• JFK - declassified records related to the assassination of JFK;
• Bitcoin - supports the use of Bitcoin, and explores a national reserve of the "currency" similar to the Gold reserve;
• Iron Dome - calls for a national air defence system for the USA similar to Israel's Iron Dome;
• Education - ends federal gender and equity-related education programming;
• Deregulation - requires that 10 regulations be repealed for every new one introduced;
• Sovereign Wealth - established a US sovereign wealth fund; and,
• War - establish Homeland Security Task Forces in every state to secure the USA from invasion.

We here at mewetree.blogspot.com have highlighted above the two key executive orders that we think may be predictive of what Trump and the Republicans may do once Congress is back in session. 

To understand what may be coming, it is important to realize that what the Republicans learned in 2020 is that American democracy actually works. They may not want it to work, as elections after Trump took office in 2016 were resoundingly negative for the Republicans. In light of this, and in the years after Trump lost in 2020, the Republicans worked hard to water-down election laws country-wide. Wiki has a very good summary of voter suppression attempts here...

Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election - Wikipedia'

The point of most of this was limiting the ability of Black people to vote, given that they vote very heavily for the Democrats. From the perspective of Trump and the Republicans, these people are the storm troopers of the culture war, enabling Democrats to get into power to wrought the culture changes that the Right hates, much of which Trump has attempted to reverse in the above-noted executive orders. 

Now please take note above that Trump has repealed the Equal Employment Opportunity Order of President Johnson from 1965. This was part of very significant changes brought about in the era of civil rights that set the stage for much of the rights-related progress that followed in the 1960's and 1970's. If Trump is willing to reverse something as sacrosanct as a civil-rights era executive order that has operated for 60 years, one has to ask the obvious question...

Do Trump and the Republicans also intend to repeal the cornerstone achievements in civil rights in the 1960's, the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, as well?? 

Doing this would be a natural extension of their efforts to limit voting by Black people since 2020, as noted above. It is what they would do if they thought that they needed to put a nail in the coffin of "woke" cultural change by making sure to permanently hamstring the national Democratic vote.

But this seems nuts at first glance! After all, Trump has said that he supports civil rights! Again, Wiki is helpful. Here is a very long article that catalogues Trump's political and other lies. The man tells the truth only when it serves his purposes.

False or misleading statements by Donald Trump - Wikipedia

So, what other evidence exists that points to Trump and the Republicans potentially doing something as outrageous as repealing the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act? The board of mewetree.blogspot.com invites the reader to look at the other highlighted executive order noted above.

Homeland Security Task Forces are to be established in every single state, ostensibly to deal with an invasion of the United States! Literally no one thinks that such an invasion would or could happen.

So what is this about?

Repeal of the key national civil and political rights legislation would likely cause riots country-wide, and Trump and the Republicans no doubt remember Black Lives Matter. If a government wanted to have the ability to swiftly impose martial law on a population that was in the act of rebellion against the elimination of their civil and political rights, having Homeland Security Task Forces in place is precisely how they would go about doing that. In fact, the board of mewetree.blogspot.com believes that Trump is literally salivating at the prospect of invoking martial law in the USA at some point in his tenure.

So, having listed what Trump has done to date, and what may be coming next, what is motivating this man?  

It's obvious. The key concepts that come to mind are hate, fear, an almost insane lust for vengeance, and with those, an almost complete lack of empathy. This is a man at war with his enemies 110% of the time, with this war encompassing literally everything he thinks, says and does. 

From the perspective of his public life, he has now internalized America's culture war as his own personal war against his many enemies, with literally millions of utterly innocent people now in his sights.

Don't despair...

The board of mewetree.blogspot.com thinks that this is all too much. Every politician has a limited amount of political capital, and Trump's political career may soon go the same way as the careers of two other revolutionaries - John Paul 1 and Robespierre - which is to say, it may end rather sooner than he thinks, and not in the way he would want. While he is focussing exclusively on his endless enemies, he may have taken his eye off of his "friends", who, now that he can't run again and help them politically, may be about to "reset the table". (To be clear, we are only talking about the end of his political career.)

We shall see.

Canada as the 51st State!

Trump has stated that he wants Canada to become the 51st state, and that he'll bring that about through economic rather than military means.  

What might that mean?

First and foremost, we would have to try to prevent everyone in Quebec from moving to Florida for half of the year! They love Florida, and should there no longer be a border, they might just get in their cars and off they go! "Vive le Québec, sud!"

Joining the USA might also mean an invasion of IHOPs into Canada. The International House Of Pancakes is a particular favourite of the board of mewetree.blogspot.com! The prospect of getting eight delicious blueberry pancakes for breakfast, where we would normally only get two or three, might just be a game-changer! Do not underestimate the power of American cuisine to unify the world!

One other incentive need mentioning - Football! 

Canada would presumably get one or two NFL teams if we became Americans.  Maybe one in Toronto and one in Montreal? Canadians already love the NFL!! We say, bring it on and their drunken tailgate parties with them!!

And of course, GUNS! Lots and lots of GUNS!

The very restrictive gun laws in Canada could not survive a Second Amendment challenge. We would have to get used to gun-toting Canadians, and shooting ranges dotting the landscape. Hey! "Guns don't kill people; people kill people...with guns!" Driving will become so much more interesting knowing everyone has a handgun in their glove compartment!

But wait, there's more!

How about a "Trial of the Century" every three years?! When we had the Patriation Reference, the Americans had the OJ Trial! 

WTF!? 

Soon, Mangione will be before the courts, and who knows how many Democrats Trump will go after?! No longer will we have to watch, envious on the side lines, as American celebrate the next perversion of justice! Soon, they may be our own perversions as well!

"If the glove don't fit, Canada must be quit!"

And we also get celebrity chaos! 

Americans love their celebrities, especially when they get to feel superior while reflecting on celebrities who are nuts and who live totally chaotic lives! Step aside Mitsou; say hello to Kim Kardashian! 

Who is Mitsou, you ask? Exactly! 

Can you see it..."The Hockey Wives of Toronto" coming to a tv screen near you, soon! Huzzah! OMG! How about "Survivor - Canmore!" We can't wait!

Finally, we will lose "Peace, Order and Good Government", which are Canada's key constitutional slogans, for the "Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness" of America which has spawned a nation of morbidly obese citizens; the highest incarcerate rates in the world; and for whom a trainer park contains one's sacrosanct castle, legally protected from government interlopers. 

OMG! Slavery and involuntary servitude are still technically legal in the USA under the Thirteen Amendment! 

What a country!

What would Americans get from Canada?

French! There is no way the Quebecois will quietly into the American melting pot! Americans can expect a gut-wrenching constitutional crisis about every ten years as Quebec tries to blackmail an entire continent with threats of becoming independent. No doubt, America will accede to their every demand rather than do anything like invade to prevent any such separation from happening. It's not like they have ever faced a crisis like this before.

Poutine and Nanaimo bars!! Combine Quebec's delicious culinary delight as a main course, and add British Columbia's fantastic dessert bar, and you something petty close to perfect! Do Americans like calories? A dinner-size serving of Poutine will net you over 1,000 calories!  Add a Nanaimo bar for dessert, and you are looking at another 300 calories! Eat the whole thing twice and you are looking at over 2,500 calories at one meal! Fabulous!

What could we accomplish, together?

How about a Tim's and Dunkin' Donuts merge! 

Tim Horton's is already in the USA. Dunkin' Donuts was in Canada for some time, but Tim's basically wiped them out. With the union of the two countries, these iconic coffee shops will also merge. Can you say Dunkin' Tim's? 

Now, who wants to tell King Charles III that he just lost another former British possession?

.  

2025 - Fearless Predictions!

The board of mewetree.blogspot.com would like to revive a past favourite blog topic, namely the fearless predictions for the upcoming year!

Here we go...

Sports:

• Baseball: The Toronto Blue Jays will finish at the bottom of their division, with the Dynamic Duo losing their jobs. The Atlanta Braves will win the World Series.
• Hockey: The Montreal Canadiens will make the playoffs and will go to the semi-finals. The Toronto Maple Leafs will make it to the second round. The Edmonton Oilers will win the Stanley Cup.
• Canadian Soccer: The Women's National Team will get to 5th in international rankings. The Men's national Team will get to 25th. There will be a cleaning house of management and coaching of the national teams following the 2024 Olympic "drone" scandal. Other international teams will reveal similar malfeasance.

Culture:

• Wicked: This movie will win five Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Musical Score, and Best Special Effects. Cynthia Erivo who plays Elphabas (the Wicked Witch) will win an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony! (Prediction courtesy of Wicked Bunny!🐰)
• Catholicism: The world will wake up to the slow, world-wide growth of the Catholic Church, especially amongst Protestants and Muslims. There will be an existential crisis in the Church over the question of whether non-believers can make it to Heaven, with the Pope on the wrong side of that debate.
• Feminism: The modernization of traditional feminism will take off, after its stunning pop-culture launch courtesy of the movie Barbie. Babies are good.
• The Peterson Effect: Jordan Peterson is about to cause way more people to rethink all manner of cultural issues from promiscuity, to marriage, religion, the essence of freedom, compassion, and free will. The Reaction has its apostle and is now well underway.
• Babies: The Western World, Japan and South Korea will start having babies again. Babies are good.
• Weight: The Western World will start to get back into shape, courtesy of aggressive public health policy moves by RFK Jr.  The "reshaping" of America will be one lasting legacy of Trump's second term.
  
• K-Pop: This will sweep the world, again. The world will acknowledge the superiority of South Korean pop culture.

Politics:

• Canada: There will be a new Conservative government. It will severely disappoint supporters, and be less awful than imagined by detractors. 
• Ontario: There will be a renewed Progressive Conservative government. It will not get along with the new federal Conservative government. Ford will apologize for more things.
• Trump: His government will be less activist than hoped by supporters and feared by detractors. Think fewer illegal immigrant evictions than suggested to date; smaller tax cuts than promised; only minor revisions to Obamacare; smaller than threatened tariffs on China, and very limited tariffs on Canada and Mexico. A year into his presidency he will run out of steam, and it will become obvious that his only real concern is staying out of jail.
• UK: Sir Keir Starmer will resign in disgrace as a new range of improprieties emerge. Labour will split - Moderates v Socialists - making the UK largely ungovernable.
• Germany: The Right will end the year ascendent. Yup...

International Affairs:

• Pax Americana: Trump will reveal plans for a much more isolationist foreign policy, with Canada and Mexico offered a customs union as part of a new American sphere of influence and following the US-led obliteration of globalization.
• Un-Brexit: The UK will seek to re-enter the European Union. The French will tell them to "Mange merde...
• Ukraine: The war will be over by May, with a peace treaty similar to what had almost been hammered out in March, 2022 - Russian control of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea; a loose Western security guarantee for Ukraine, but not NATO; Ukraine free to join the EU. The driving force here will be Trump who will leverage both parties to the table.
• Israel/Gaza: The war will be over by April. Israel will settle much of Northern Gaza under the rubric of its security needs. Hamas will retreat to a favorable country to rebuild...a.k.a. Iran. Financial and other aid will flood into the non-Israeli portion of Gaza. Numerous Arab nations will sign onto the Abraham Accords, creating the possibility of a permanent semi-peace in the region. The driving forces here will again be Trump, but also Saudi Arabia.
• Iran v Israel: Israel will take out Iran's nuclear capability - one way or another.
• NATO: The alliance will come under stress as certain members pursue pro-Russian stances, based on need for Russian energy (Hungary), while others prepare for war against Russia, based on a desire to redraw post-WW2 borders (Poland.) Nothing much will happen, except that all members will get to 2% of GDP spending. The driving force will again be Trump.
• Taiwan/South China Sea: China and Taiwan will go to the brink of war as China seeks to divert the attention of its population from a deteriorating economic situation. Expect some shot-down aircraft, sunk or damaged ships, and not much else.
• Iran, Myanmar and Venezuela: Expect civil wars in these countries, with anti-government forces making massive headway. One of these three governments will fall.
• China: There will be very significant civil disturbances following a partial collapse of the Chinese economy. Expect repression.
• Afghanistan, Syria, Mali: These countries will show the world why any attempts to return to theocracies circa the 6th century AD are a bad idea.
• Germany, Poland, Japan, Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and BOOM!: With the USA becoming more isolationist under Trump, these countries will no longer trust that the Americans will include them under their nuclear umbrella in case of a confrontation with Russia and/or China. Expect at least one of them to announce a new nuclear weapons program, or to even announce that - Surprise! - they already have one! We're looking at you, South Korea and Taiwan.

Economics:

• World-wide Recession: Driven by Trump tariffs and the obliteration of globalization, and in light of the withdrawal of COVID stimulus world-wide - especially the return of real interest rates - the world will move into a blood-curdling recession. Expect 10% unemployment in OEDC countries and a loss of 5% GDP over 18 months.
• America: Trump tariffs will drive significant inflation and a recession before he starts his second year in office. A recession means a 30% drop in stock market prices, and high unemployment. Trump will blame Biden, Obama, FDR...
• AI: It will reach its limited utility, quickly - glorified search engines and illicit essay-writing for students, some useful "big data" advantages for researchers, with other uses severely restricted as artists and others protect their intellectual property from misuse and theft. And that's the point.  AI has no innate organic intelligence - their base knowledge comes 100% from us. People will realize that without us, it is useless. We are the "intelligence" in AI.
• Canada: There will be a significant down-grade of federal and provincial sovereign debt, driving a new round of austerity at all levels of government. Trump tariffs will force productivity increases on Canadian business. Housing prices will fall significantly revealing a massive real estate bubble that had been masked by immigration housing concerns.
• China: The Chinese economy will partially collapse in the wake of US/European/Other tariffs. "Never in the field of human economics has so much been build by and for so many that will eventually be enjoyed by so few..." Capitalism absent political liberty always fails.