Friday, 3 October 2025

Is Trump a Fascist?

Is Donald Trump a Fascist?

The ANTIFA people certainly think so. As well, there are many in the left-of-centre media who regularly assert that Trump is a fascist. 

Regarding the voting public, a poll taken by Ipsos and ABC News in October, 2024 revealed that a whopping 24% of registered voters considered him to be a fascist. See here.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-fascist-concerns-poll/story?id=115083795

So, is he a fascist? Answering this question requires that we ask the question, "What is a "fascist"? 

Below are the main characteristics of "fascism", and an analysis of whether or not they apply to Donald Trump and his government. A grade out of 10 is applied to each characteristic - all debatable, of course. (With thanks to the analysis at https://osbcontent.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/PC-00466.pdf. However, the board at mewetre.blogspot.com has added a few characteristics that this analysis misses that are crucial to an understanding of fascism, which are added at 15 and 16.)

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism - Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays. 

This could apply to America and to most Americans. There is nothing unique about Donald Trump regarding this first characteristic. 8 out of 10 for the entire country, and Trump.

2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights - Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc. 

Trump's approach to illegal immigrants and others sees these people denied some basic legal process rights. While disturbing, this is pretty minor compared to what actual fascist regimes do, which is torture "undesirables" or line people up against a wall and shoot them. In an American context, the denial of due process rights to some persons seems fascist, and is certainly out of line. However, for real fascists, it is laughable. 2 out of 10.

3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause - The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc. 

Trump has used hate against identifiable groups as a prime motivator and unifier of members of his MAGA tribe. This is often overtly racist. It is his major political modus operandi. 10 out of 10.

4. Supremacy of the Military - Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized. 

Again, this is not just Trump, it is the entire country. If you are reading this, you are likely starting to notice a trend, which is that it isn't just Trump who exhibits at least some fascist characteristics, but the United States itself. The military is essentially venerated in that country. 10 out of 10 for the entire country, and Trump.

5. Rampant Sexism - The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy. 

Is Trump the sexist, or has he tapped into rampant sexism within the United States itself? In fact, it's both. 9 out of 10 for Trump and the Republican Party.

6. Controlled Mass Media - Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common. 

Can you say hello to Fox and Truth Social? 

Media control is not absolute as the United States has Freedom of the Press, and swathes of US media are controlled by Trump's opposition. Because of this, outright government censorship is almost non-existent. Nonetheless, there is no question that Trump and his minions control huge sections of the media landscape in the USA, with Trump himself having his own personal electronic bully pulpit. 7 out of 10.

7. Obsession with National Security - Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses. 

Fearmongering is as American as apple pie. There is no United States Government that has not and does not do this, whether Republican or Democrat. This is an American characteristic, not just a Trump one. 8 out of 10 for the entire country, and Trump.

8. Religion and Government are Intertwined - Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions. 

The American approach to religion is encapsulated in the idea that religious worship is a personal matter, and there should be a 100% separation between church and state. This is the state of affairs in the United States where religion, in an of itself, has no virtually role in the public affairs of the nation. 

However, Republicans are almost constantly trying to introduce this into the public sphere, including requiring the Ten Commandments in schools, and asking that religious-based interpretations of how the Earth was formed be taught in schools, amongst other things. This is not new - think of the Scopes Monkey Trial of 1925. Trump himself is not a religious person, in fact, one may think of the word "sinner" when he comes to mind. He has allowed for some religious discourse to enter the lexicon of his government, and he has certainly not spoken out against attempts by Republicans to introduce religion into public affairs. 

In assessing this characteristic against Trump himself, we need to admit that he doesn't give a hoot about this, and his support of religious Republicans is actually tepid, at best. He is not trying to turn the USA into a Christian nation. (This might change if he saw how much cash televangelists rake in!) 2 out of 10.

9. Corporate Power is Protected - The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite. (Note - this needs to be modified. In a truly fascist country, private enterprise is subservient to the state, which only exists to protect and enhance the nation. Private owners do not control the direction of their businesses, but follow the direction given by the state. Any private business person who thwarts the state loses their private holdings as a matter of course. See 15 below.)

OMG! It is arguable that this man is in government for the sole purpose of personal enrichment as well as the enrichment of the economic class from which he was spawned. The state does not control business in America but that aspect is covered in 15 below. For the grift, give Trump 10 out of 10.

10. Labor Power is Suppressed Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed . 

Unions in the USA have been under siege for decades. This is not really about fascism, but about monopoly capitalism and oligarchy. Trump's assault on illegal immigrants will ironically strengthen organized labour in America by removing a group of workers who have bid down the price of labour for at least a generation. He isn't a fan of unions, but regardless of his railing against unions, his concern isn't really political, it's economic. 3 out of 10.

11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts - Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts is openly attacked, and governments often refuse to fund the arts. 

Free expression has arguably been under assault in higher education in the USA for years, both from the Left and Right, depending on the institution. There has been an obvious party line in certain institutions which has been rigorously enforced to the detriment of open debate - detractors are ostracized; their careers destroyed. 

Donald Trump's assault on higher education is seemingly about reversing totalitarian tendencies in certain specific institutions. In fact, he likely doesn't give a rat's ass about free speech, but these institutions are the hotbed of many of his most vocal critics, so he has taken them on very aggressively. This isn't about fascism; this is personal for him. 2 out of 10. 

12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations. 

Again, this is American as apple pie and the electric chair. There is no national police force in America. The vast majority of police follow laws regarding the use of force. Civil liberties are, in the main, protected by the courts. 

Trump's assault on illegal immigrants and stationing of the military in some cities to protect federal property are unprecedented in the modern era, and do show fascist tendencies. However, while worrisome, this is not nearly at the level that one would find in a truly fascist country, and his efforts are rather tame compared to what an archetypal fascist would do. 3 out of 10.

13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption - Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders. 

It's good to be the king! Trump is in power for the sole purpose of taking care of himself and his cronies. There is no grift like it! 10 out of 10.

14. Fraudulent Elections - Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections. 

Did Trump really lose the 2020 presidential election? Yes. While both the Democrats and Republicans try to cheat, in the main, elections are free and fair in the USA. This simply doesn't happen in fascist countries. 

But what about Trump? 

He loves the grift that he can foist on his country from being President of the United States. He has little respect for American democracy, happily benefitting from Russian interference to gain office in 2016. He relentlessly smears his opponents, but to be fair, this is normal for almost all American politicians now, he just does it better than anyone else.

This is the most disturbing aspect of this analysis... 

Expect Trump to try to stay on for a third term, or to refuse to leave office at the end of his term after declaring a national emergency. To preempt the Conclusion below, he's a grifter, not really a fascist, but from the perspective of democracy, the effect is the same. 10 out of 10.

15. Supremacy of the State - The state is the primary tool of fascists for the manifestation and propagation of the nation. This sees the state involved in all aspects of life in the community: from children's clubs and civic organizations; to all aspects of economic life including state direction of private enterprise; to control of media; to positive portrayals of the nation in the arts which are 100% controlled by the state. The nation is supreme. The state only exists for the nation, and the state is everywhere in everything.

This is not America, and is not Donald Trump. While America has fascist tendencies, it's obsession with seeing the state as antithetical to personal freedom separates America from actual fascist countries. These people do take individual freedom seriously. They are not fascists. 0 out of 10.

16. Cult of Personality - Fascist countries are lead by great leaders who cultivate a cult of personality, with those leaders seen as the embodiment of the nation that is at the core of fascism.

10 out 0f 10. No further comment required.

Conclusion: So is Donald Trump a fascist?

He certainly has fascist tendencies, especially related to characteristics such as the cult of personality; American nationalism and militarism; racism via the scapegoating of certain groups; his treatment of democracy; and most importantly, because of the grift, and the fact that he runs the country primarily for himself and his buddies. But he simply does not meet the test of it comes to crucial aspects such as the need for a national police force to enforce the will of the state, and most importantly, the role of the state itself. 

It is this last issue that is crucial - simply put, if someone doesn't favour inserting the state into literally every aspect of life in order to protect and enhance the the life of the nation, then they aren't a fascist. 

Think of Italy under Mussolini or Spain under Franco. The state completely dominated all aspects of life in those countries to make the nation come alive. Those men were fascists, and as such would rate close to 10 out of 10 on all aspects noted above. 

Trump simply doesn't score the same, especially on the issue of the role of the state. The reason for this should be crystal clear. No business person would agree that the state should direct their business affairs for any reason. Trump is a businessman first; everything else second. Fascism is bad for business, so he isn't an fascist.

So what is he?

Again, he is a businessman! But not just any businessman - he is a shockingly crooked businessman!

See here...not paying small business people...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/

And here...bankruptcies screwing investors out of their cash...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/

And more recently, here...grift and conflicts of interest while in office...

https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-investigations/crew-is-tracking-trumps-unprecedented-corruption-again/

He's not a fascist. 

He's arguably just a crook enjoying the greatest grift ever! 

But let's be fair, the Clintons weren't exactly paragons of virtue. 

Reality - many of them are "on the take", he's just better at it than the others, and he tends toward aspects of fascism to keep the grift alive.














.  













Friday, 26 September 2025

Comey Lives!

Former FBI Director James Comey has been charged with making false statements to Congress and obstruction of justice. 

Specifically, it is alleged that he lied to Congress when he said that he did not authorize a leak of information about an investigation into Hillary Clinton, and that in doing so he obstructed Congress. 

It appears that there is solid evidence that he did that very thing. 

Andrew McCabe, formerly of he FBI, previously confirmed that a leak by him to a Wall Street Journal reporter about that investigation was authorized by Comey. 

If this is true, then Comey is a criminal.

Ask Trump's former lawyer what lying to Congress means. For Mr. Cohen, it meant that he was sentenced to three years in jail.

Many in the press in the USA are saying that these charges show that the DOJ is now doing Trump's bidding. If this means they are catching criminals who previously perverted the American political system for their own ends, let's hope to see more.





.


Friday, 19 September 2025

Stock Market Doom, Again!!

The board here at mewetree.blogspot.com has been predicting a stock market crash and recession for years, and starting in 2019. 

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-curve-invertedrecession-coming.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2019/08/bubble-ii-deeper-dive.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2019/10/best-recession-analysis.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2020/01/bubble-trouble.html

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2024/10/stock-market-time-to-sell.html

Of course, 2020 saw the COVID-19 pandemic begin, and with that, a government-sponsored depression as economies were shut down. We then saw a massive recovery after the pandemic subsided.

During the pandemic, governments and central banks poured cash into the world's economies to keep them afloat. That stimulus followed a decade of massive stimulus that itself followed the financial crisis in 2008-09 which prompted a massive asset bubble that was about to burst when COVID-19 hit.

Well, it is 2019 again, albeit with even more stimulus and even bigger asset bubbles this time. A recession and stock market crash are coming, the only question is when.

The indictors that matter are as follows.

Yield Curve: The Yield Curve in the USA was inverted from July of 2022 to August of 2024; for 25 straight months. It has never been inverted for this long. It has been back to normal for the last year.

Yield curves invert when the interest rates paid on short-term government debt are higher than the interest rates paid on long-term government debt. The yield inverts when the smart money starts to buy long-term government debt as a safe haven from an expected stock market pull-back and recession, thereby driving yields down as the price of long-term debt rises.  A recession and stock market decline ALWAYS follows an inversion, specifically after the inversion ends and the yields go back to normal.

The world has been due for a recession for over a year now. It will happen, but no one knows when.

Shiller PE: This is a measure of the ten year trailing price to earnings ratio, usually measured against the S&P 500 index. It's historic and normal level should be about 16. Today it is at 39.86, which is the second-highest level ever, outside of the dot.com bubble in the early 2000's. This is literally screaming that the stock market is massively overvalued. Going back to normal would see the S&P 500 drop from about 6,650 today to about 3,200. 

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Elevated stock prices made sense when interest rates were at historically low levels. They don't make sense now. The market will tank, but no one knows when.

Buffet Indicator: This is Warren Buffet's market indicator, and it measures the total value of the stock market divided by total GDP.  The historic trend line for this indictor suggest that this should equate to about 125%. Today it is at 217%, which is more than two standard deviations from the norm. This suggests that the market is strongly overvalued.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

Warren Buffet is holding over $348 Billion in cash right now. That is the largest cash position (really mostly T-bills) that he has ever taken. He is the most successful investor in history. His cash position is screaming that the market will tank, but no one knows when.

It will happen - but no one knows when.









.




Thursday, 11 September 2025

Is Canada America's "Best" Trading Partner??

President Donald Trump has launched a world-wide trade war. He has applied tariffs against all countries on Earth that have significant economies, except Russia, in an attempt to adjust trade relations, and return manufacturing to America from countries that he alleges are "ripping off America."

Some countries are obviously ripping America off. Those countries have non-tariff barriers that make it virtually impossible for American companies to sell products. Others are long standing trade partners that have trade surpluses with America in some areas, and trade deficits in others. President Trump is concerned about manufacturing in particular, as he wants manufacturing jobs to return to the USA.  

Of America's main trading partners, which one is the best, with "best" meaning that this country imports the most stuff from the United States, and therefore more willingly accepts the idea that trade should follow comparative advantage, where countries should just do what they do best, and trade between these countries allows for each to benefit from the other's comparable economic advantages?

Total imports of American goods and services to a country does not tell the tale of who is America's best trading partner. To get a sense of the "best", it is suggested that an analysis of imports of a per capita basis would be better as it would show the level to which the citizens and businesses in a given country are comfortable with importing both goods and services from the United States.

America's main trading partners, and their relative imports of American-made goods and services on a per capita basis, are listed below (2024 numbers in $ US). Services are included with goods as services are a massive proportion of the American economy, and inclusion of services provides a better picture of the overall trade relationship.

China - $164.6 Billion/1.415 Billion people = $116 per citizen

European Union - $630.43 Billion/450 Million people = $1,401 per citizen

Japan - $85 Billion/123 Million people = $691 per citizen

UK - $78.3 Billion/69.23 Million people = $1,130 per citizen

Australia - $61.6 Billion/27.2 Million people = $2,265 per citizen

South Korea - $87.2 Billion/51.75 Million people = $1,690 per citizen

Mexico - $384.4Billion/130.9 Million people = $2,937 per citizen

Canada - $764.9 Billion/41.29 Million people = $18,525 per citizen

For every $1 US in goods and services that China imports from the USA on a per capita basis, Canada imports $159 US. 

Canada's relatively massive imports of goods and services from the USA are driven both by acceptance of the basic precepts of free trade, and by the very close proximity of the two countries. Still, it is what it is - based on who actually imports goods and services from America, there is simply no question which country is America's best trading partner.

Note - the board of mewetree.blogspot.com is Canadian and drives a car that was made in America. Of nine homes in the neighborhood, four have American-made cars in their driveways. How many neighborhoods in China, the EU, Japan or South Korea could say the same thing?


 




Thursday, 21 August 2025

Trump Fraud Case - Update #2

The team here at Mewetree.blogspot.com has questioned the validity of the fraud case against Donald Trump in New York State.  Please see below...

mewetree: Trump "Convicted"!! - Trump's Fraudulent "Fraud" Conviction

mewetree: Trump Fraud Case - Update

A New York appeals court has throw out the massive $450 Million penalty applied in that case against Donald Trump and his business corporation. 

The court said this...

In the prevailing opinion, the judges wrote, “While the injunctive relief ordered by the court is well crafted to curb defendants’ business culture, the court’s disgorgement order, which directs that defendants pay nearly half a billion dollars to the State of New York, is an excessive fine that violates the Eighth Amendment of the United States Constitution.

The appeals court left restrictions on Trump's business activities in place.

This decision will be appealed. It will get to the United States Supreme Court where it will be entirely reversed.

To recap, the decision is based on the use of consumer protection law, where it was alleged that Trump defrauded his creditors by overvaluing his properties in order to get higher loans than he was entitled to. His creditors have never complained about those loans. It is a consumer protection case where no "consumer" thinks they were defrauded. 

The United States Supreme Court will be savage in its condemnation of this obvious prosecutorial and judicial overreach. It is possible that both the prosecutor and presiding judge will face sanction by their relevant law societies stemming from their participation in this outrage. 



Sunday, 10 August 2025

Trump's Tariffs Will Make Trade Great Again!

President Trump took office to start his second term at 11:00 am, January 20, 2025. A key plank in his electoral platform was to introduce tariffs to incentivise industry to locate to the United States to create jobs and rebuild the American industrial base. (BTW - Obama invented with word "incentivize".)

Trump's Tariff Terror was unleashed on the world on April 1, 2025. Here is President Trump on Liberation Day... 

(NB. the 70% here is on the high side and is "for effect". Trump actually imposed a basic tariff of 10%, not 70%, on April 2, 2025. Still, this looks pretty good.)

President Trump has variously imposed, stopped, reimposed and then stopped again tariffs against many of countries as negotiations proceeded to address his central claim that the entire world had been taking advantage of the United States. Because of this, it is hard to track what he has actually done vis a vis tariffs since January 20, 2025. Nonetheless, here is a good summary of what tariffs he has actually imposed since then.

January–April 2025:

  • Feb 1: Imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on Chinese goods, citing national emergencies like fentanyl trafficking.
  • April 2: Announced a universal 10% tariff on all imports, with higher “reciprocal” rates for countries with trade deficits.
  • April 3–5: Sectoral tariffs hit foreign-made cars (25%), steel, aluminum, and copper (25%) heavily impacting Canada and Mexico.

July–August 2025:

  • Trump threatened and then implemented 35% tariffs on Canadian goods, citing lack of cooperation on drug enforcement and trade retaliation.
  • Tariffs on dozens of countries—including the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam—were raised to 15–20% starting August 7.
  • India was hit with a 50% tariff due to its continued purchase of Russian oil, prompting a pause in U.S.-India arms deals.

As an aside, it is worth noting that President Trump's tariffs will, if continued at present rates, raise just about enough new revenue to off-set the budget deficits that the United States will run owing to the massive tax cuts to the rich that were provided by way of the Big Beautiful Bill, at least out to 2035. The rich will get tax cuts, importers and the poor and middle class will get to pay tariffs. The word you are looking for is "Oligarchy". For a previous post on new political science terminology, please see here...

mewetree: New Poli-Sci Terminology!

So how are President Trump's tariffs going to make us great again? 

Explaining this requires a quick review of economic history.

The world has moved from free trade, to isolation and tariffs, back to free trade again regularly since the British repealed the Corn Laws in 1846. The concept of free trade - that countries should concentrate on whatever economic activity in which they excel, and trade with other countries that similarly concentrate on what they excel, meaning the world will benefit from the best that every country has to offer thereby "lifting all boats" - became international economic orthodoxy very quickly thereafter. Soon after the British opened their door to free trade, everyone was on the bandwagon. By 1854, for example, Canada and the United States had concluded a Reciprocity Treaty that ran to 1866.  

Free trade promised great things for everyone, everywhere! Then politics got in the way. 

The historical epochs with free trade have relied to a very great extent on trust. In short, countries have to trust that their trading partners aren't trying to gain an unfair competitive advantage in order to continue to leave their markets open to foreign goods, services, agricultural products and raw materials. When trust has dissipated, owing either to legitimate allegations of cheating, or to other political developments that resulted in one country canceling its free trade arrangement with another to punish that country - the United States cancelled the Reciprocity Treaty with Canada in 1866 owing to British support of the Confederacy in the Civil War - then the world has returned to tariffs and isolation.

The ultimate achievement in the history of free trade was the phenomenon of Globalization that was established after the end of the Cold War. One main beneficiary of this, without question, was China. In the span of a little over a generation, China moved from Third World status, to become the second strongest economy in the world. In so doing, the Chinese likely cheated, with this cheating being a large reason why trust in free trade started to dissipate starting at least a decade ago. The specific allegations are that China cheated through subsidies, forced technology transfers, the wide-spread theft of intellectual property, and a regulatory system that favoured domestic over foreign firms.

Another huge beneficiary was Mexico, which, through a free trade agreement with the United States and Canada, has grown its manufacturing base from essentially nothing to the point where it produces 25% of all automobiles in North America, and it supplies 40% of the entire American automobile market. Like China, Mexico faces allegations that it cheats, in the case of Mexico by artificially keeping industrial wages so low that the United States and Canada cannot compete.

Regardless of the fact that Donald Trump is President of the United States, the world was moving back to tariffs and isolation because the dissipation of trust is now a world-wide phenomena. Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of retreat from the world-wide consensus that free trade is a good thing.

And what a symptom he is! 

President Trump's almost war-like assault on free trade through the invocation of unprecedented tariffs against just about every country on Earth is having the effect of pushing the entire planet very quickly into the next epoch in our collective economic history, which will be a time of isolation and tariff barriers, accompanied as it always is by economic stagnation, recession, and for some countries, depression. 

We should thank Trump for this! 

Here's why...

The move from free trade, to isolation and tariffs, then back to free trade is cyclical and normal.  

The move from isolation back to free trade stems from economic stagnation occasioned by isolation and the realization that with free trade everyone will do better. 

The move from free trade back to isolation and tariffs stems from years living comfortably with the benefits of free trade - to the point that we forget what it was like to be poor and to struggle - coupled with the end of trust usually occasioned by one country or the other cheating the system. 

We have been seeing this second movement underway for over a decade.

The move from free trade to isolation and tariffs would normally take perhaps decades, as it requires the neutering of trade systems that were themselves meant to last for decades, if not forever. If politics had continued as normal without President Trump arriving on the scene, it could have taken perhaps another ten or twenty years to get to the point where we have arrived at our foreordained future of economic stagnation from isolation and autarchy.

But Trump has pushed all of this forward at a record pace!

The speed with which he has applied tariffs and overthrown the world-wide free trade order means we may very well get to economic stagnation much faster this time - expect a world-wide recession within 12 months. This is arguably a good thing as it also means we will likely see a cyclical movement back to a free trade consensus much faster than we would have without Trump's Tariff Terror.

And so, Trump can be seen as a fortuitous catalyst for rapid cyclical economic change. In the end, Donald Trump will make Free Trade Great Again.

Thanks. 










Tuesday, 29 July 2025

State of the US Economy with Trump Redux

There are worrying trends in the United States economy, especially in the last six months.  

Here are some basic measures.

House Prices: After recovering post-COVID-19, median house prices in the USA have dropped by about 7% since the start of 2023. 

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Total Car Sales: Car sales in the USA rocketed after COVID-19. They have dropped on an annualized basis by 15% in just five months.

Total Vehicle Sales (TOTALSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Used Car Prices: Used car sales and prices are a key indicator of the state of the economy as they are a direct measure of how the poor and lower middle class are fairing. Here are used car prices in the USA. These prices exploded by 63% in the four years after COVID-19. Prices have dropped by 15% just in the last six months.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Used Cars and Trucks in U.S. City Average (CUSR0000SETA02) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

If these trends continue, the US economy will stagnate as housing and cars are the foundation of that economy. So far, this is not happening. Regardless of these trends, basic measures of economic performance are still holding up.  

Here they are.

Unemployment Rate: The US unemployment rate is holding around 4%. This is excellent, and near the natural rate of unemployment. If you want a job in America, you can likely find one.

The Employment Situation - June 2025

Labour Force Participation: After plummeting in COVID-19 to about 60%, this rate has recovered, and remains steady just over 62%, although it has not yet recovered to its pre-COVID-19 level.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Inflation: The Trump Tariff Terror threatens to raise inflation as tariff costs are passed on to US consumers. So far there is scant evidence of that, with the rate of inflation only rising from 2.3% in the spring, to 2.7% in June.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

Personal Debt: The proportion of annual income that is devoted to debt repayment has risen slightly to just over 11%, but is still nowhere near to its historic peak of over 15% in 2008. Those who preach about the perils of debt may be off base. Still, with higher interest rates, this could become more of a problem over time.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

Conclusion:.... 

Trump's management of the economy may be causing ripples in terms of a loss of confidence in places, and there is some cause for worry in the automobile and housing markets, but so far there is almost no evidence that he is having a negative impact on the US economy. 

(P.S. I know many of my readers want me to pillory the guy.  Sorry, the evidence simply isn't there.)