Curtains For Putin?

I was dead wrong. Biden did not make a secret deal with Putin to keep Ukraine out of NATO. The Russians invaded yesterday. 

Let's take a walk through time...we may want to try to understand what is going on through a search for historic precedents.

Focusing on Russian history, we may want to start with the expansion of Russia from a Grand Duchy to an Empire over a period of about 700 years, and see this invasion as a modern version of this imperial imperative.

We could also interpret the invasion from a more recent perspective, and see this as the third of three national suppressions including Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968, where the Russians felt compelled to reign in their vassal states by taking military action.

Reference to more recent events would conjure up memories of the Georgian-Russian War from 2008, and the occupation and annexation of Crimea in 2014, when the Russians took advantage of a distracted and/or disinterested world to take back territory. 

Finally, there is the Russian suppression and reincorporation of Chechnya into Russia in 1999-2000.  Chechnya had gained its de facto independence following a war with Russia in 1994-96. The later war to bring them back into Russia killed up to 50,000 people. 

There are many ways to interpret what has happened here - economic imperatives; a drive to restore Great Power Status; the need to deflect from internal troubles. I think that the historic precedents are key to understanding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those precedents speak to a centuries-long and relentless determination on the part of the Russian leadership - of every ideological stripe - to control the peoples on their borders. There appears to be no question that Putin sees the world the same way, considering Ukraine to be nothing more than a break-away part of Russia which he is determined to return to the fold. He has as much as said so.

How will this turn out?  

Well, no one knows, but it is certain that the days of empire are over, at least those empires established by force of arms and maintained through the use of soldiers and not financiers. Putin's perspective is at least three decades out of date, and his perspective is certain to have many detractors, including people in his own country.

Regarding those people, the war may be taking place now in order for Putin to deflect from the obvious failure of Putin's government to bring to the Russians the type of economic and social success that is being enjoyed by many of their former vassal states. By way of comparison, the Russians have almost five times the population of their former vassal Poland, but barely twice the GDP of that country. As noted in a previous post, Russia should be the wealthiest country on Earth. They are nowhere close to this. Does Putin see writing on the wall?

Other countries that tried the path of war to defect from economic stagnation and internal troubles include Argentina that launched the Falkland's War in 1980, and the Austrian Empire which gleefully vaulted into WW1 in 1914. Both countries saw the end of the respective regimes as a result of their involvement in those wars.

We know what Ukrainians and the West think about this new war. It may be that we should be paying closer attention to the Russians themselves. Behind the propaganda, a storm may be brewing.

Putin and Biden - Let's Make a Secret Deal

I suspect that there will be no invasion of Ukraine. 

Why?  

Putin has demanded that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO.  I think that the Americans will agree. In particular, I think Biden will promise Putin that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, and he will also ask that Putin keep this promise secret. This approach is consist with Biden's emerging foreign policy philosophy - The Biden Doctrine - of matching America's commitments to America's interests. The USA has no observable interest in defending Ukraine from Russia. NATO's expansion is probably over.

The precedent for this may be the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the crisis was resolved, in part, when the Americans undertook to withdraw missiles from Turkey in return for the USSR withdrawing missiles from Cuba. In order to not look like they had appeased the Soviets, the Americans asked that their promise be kept secret.  They removed their missiles six months after the Soviets removed missiles from Cuba.

For an awesome series on the Cuban Missile Crisis, please see here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEXjoBe5ZdI&list=PLrG5J-K5AYAWbzTXiTzPEFQHLoozkqchz

On the Biden Doctrine, Biden faced a mass of criticism for pulling out of Afghanistan last year. Is anyone now complaining that the USA is no longer spending its money and shedding American blood in Afghanistan?  

Nope.

Putin Has A Point

 Here is a map of Russia and Ukraine...

If Ukraine joined NATO, Russia would face a hostile alliance with a bridgehead jutting right into the heart of their country. NATO says it is peaceful, but Russia sees NATO as a threat. Including Ukraine in the alliance would be adding one country too many. Doing this would be almost guaranteed to spark a violent reaction from Russia. No one has an interest in this, especially the Ukrainians, as it is in their country that any violent reaction would likely be focused.

At the start of WW1, Russia had the fourth largest economy on Earth. One horrible world war; one horrible civil war; a second more horrible world war; seventy years of Communism; forty years of Cold War; and a botched return to normalcy after the Cold War later, and the combined GDP of NATO is about thirty times that of Russia. No country on Earth exhibits more failed promise than the one that Putin leads. That country deserves our condolences, not our apprehension.

Russia will only become a real threat if it is truly provoked. We need to make sure to not provoke it.

And Ukraine? Would being militarily neutral, but free to join any economic and political collectives it prefers really be an awful a situation? It works well for Finland.

The West needs to look in the mirror, and realize that this time, we may be the bully.

Cruzing for a "Terrorist" Bruising

Ted Cruz has claimed that the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 was a "terrorist" act.  According to one journalist from CNN, he has claimed this at least 17 times.

Last week he claimed it again, and Tucker Carlson from Fox "News" took him to task for it. Under pressure from Carlson, Cruz backtracked his comments and claimed that he was "sloppy" and "dumb" in using the term "terrorist". In spite of his pathetic groveling. Carlson would have none of it. See here...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/08/ted-cruz-capitol-attack-tucker-carlson-interview

It is worth noting that Carlson claimed in the interview that “You called this a ‘terror attack’ when by no definition was it a terror attack,”...  Carlson has been spreading relentless lies about that day, including a documentary that claimed that the attack was a "false flag" incident that was orchestrated by the deep state, that is, by US security services. 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/nov/04/tucker-carlson/tucker-carlsons-conspiracy-theory-about-fbi-and-ja/

Get it?  The attack never happened, but if it did, it was encouraged and orchestrated by the government!

By "no definition" a terrorist act? Here is a general definition of the word "terrorist"...

..."a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims." (see below for source)

On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters used violence and intimidation to try to coerce US lawmakers to stop the political act of certification of the 2021 presidential election. In short, "people" used "violence and intimidation" against "civilians" for "political aims". 

This isn't hard.  The events of January 6, 2021 were, by definition, "terrorist" in nature. 

What is scary is that Carlson is leading a massive propaganda campaign to foster denial of this basic reality. Many, many people believe him.

What is scarier is that Cruz has presidential ambitions. How would an utterly spineless weasel like this stand up to a guy like Putin? How do the citizens of Texas keep electing this man?

This is what it is like living in the shadows of weasels.

Source - https://www.google.com/search?q=definition+of+terorist&rlz=1C1CHZN_enCA915CA920&oq=definition+of+terorist&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i10i433j0i10l7j46i10.6944j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

USA...Civil Strife, Not Civil War

Will the USA dismember into civil war? It already did that once, and many prognosticators are predicting that it may do so again sometime soon.

The USA will not move to civil war for the following reasons.

1. Been There, Done That. The USA already had a civil war, and the results were not happy.  That memory is still relatively fresh...no one will not want a repeat.

2. The Rule of Law is Alive and Well in America. Those who would rise up against the state will be stopped and prosecuted. The attempt to stop a constitutional process in aid of a hopeless attempt to hold on to power by Trump on Jan 6, 2021 has resulted in 700 charges, and counting. Almost no one on either side of the aisle questions jury trials.

3. The Military is Loyal. Any attempt to overthrow a democratically-elected government in the USA would be met by the United States Army whose officer corps is loyal. Such an uprising has no chance of success.

4. Politics Still Mostly Works. The political system in the USA looks incredibly messy at the moment. That is completely normal. Congress can still come together and make deals in the national interest, and that is all that ultimately matters. 

5. The USA is Dealing with Race. George Floyd changed the USA. The result will be less racism, more national harmony and better policing in coming years. While there is a political divide, there actually is a counter movement toward increased racial harmony which matters much more. The USA will emerge more, not less unified in ten years.

6. Biden is Finally Starting to Lead. When the President of the United States assumes the bully pulpit, the result often has a dramatic effect on the psyche of that country. Biden has come out swinging against the anti-democratic leanings of Trump et al...he will succeed in pushing them back as he has the high ground, and they don't.

7. The Hate is Balanced by Liberty. The Dems and GOP may hate each other, but they mostly do not question the right of the other to be "idiots". The essence of any civil war is the belief that other side has no right to think what they think and to hold whatever political opinions that want to hold. This is mostly not the case in the USA, where the vast majority of people respect the right of others to have their own opinions, even if they are considered to be wrong.

8. Noise Does Not Equal Civil War. The many irresponsible commentators and agitators on both sides of the aisle castigate each other verbally and spread lies, but no one is seriously suggesting that they "take out" their opponents. The propaganda on both sides is mostly infantile and meant to entertain...no one will fight for a sound bite. Hmmm...is it "Propatainment"?

9. No Regular Fist Fights Yet! The two sides have hardly even started fighting yet! Encounters are often heated, but it is VERY rare for the two sides of the American divide to go at each other physically...the cops always get on the way. 

10. The Democratic Process Works. America has free and fair elections. Messy, yes, but they are legitimate. The ballot box is still where the political contests of that country play themselves out. Almost no one questions this.

There are other points that I could make. There may be significant strife in the USA in coming years, but there will be no civil war.

Peace in our time!!

 

Why Conspiracies Fester

COVID 19 is FAKE! Trump won in 2020! Vaccines don't work!

Literally millions of people honestly believe these and other such things. It is generally assumed that they are nuts. I don't think so. 

These people are situating their belief systems in such a way as to adjust to the aspect of lying that has become the staple of Western political life. 

Put another way, they have been lied to so often by so many, that the truth is no longer clear to them, and anything that seems to break through the assumed lies to an "alternate reality" often seems accurate, especially if it accords with their religious beliefs, economic status, and views on race.

Three time-honoured examples of...

The Lies That Launched An Age of Conspiracy!

Let's Wag the Dog!! - The Second Gulf of Tonkin Incident.  

The USA launched its intervention in Vietnam after North Vietnamese torpedo boats attacked two American destroyers in the Gulf of Tonkin off North Vietnam on two separate occasions. Except that the second attack never happened. 

The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution that was placed before Congress to launch the war said this..

“Naval units of the Communist regime in Vietnam, in violation of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations and of international law, have deliberately and repeatedly attacked United States naval vessels lawfully present in international waters, and have thereby created a serious threat to international peace..."

Former Secretary of State, Robert McNamara, admitted in 2003 that the second attack that was relied upon to justify the war never occurred.

Filthy Bill Rides Again! - Bill Clinton. 

The man is a pig, plain and simple. Long before we discovered that he had been on the Lolita Express thirty times (i.e. Jeffrey Epstein's aircraft which ferried teen girls to be exploited on his rape island), Bill famously claimed this, under oath...

"I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky..."

Except that he did. Because of this lie and other actions, he was impeached by the House of Representatives and disbarred from practicing law in Arkansas.

Watch Bill's lie here...he is the master...you almost believe him even now!

Bill Clinton Lie - I DID NOT HAVE Sexual Relations with that Woman (Lewinsky) - YouTube

When he was finally cornered like a rat...

(32) When Clinton admitted to the Lewinsky affair - YouTube

Blow Up Trust Real Good!...The Missing Weapons of Mass Destruction.

In 2003, then President George W Bush justified an invasion of Iraq on Saddam Hussein's possession of weapons of mass destruction. The only problem with this was that he didn't actually have any. The Americans and their allies spent years looking for weapons that were not there.  

Did they lie? Most people assume they did, and that the USA wanted to get at Iraq and used this excuse to do so. Certainly, the UN did not think there were any weapons there, having done hundreds of inspections before the war turning up exactly nothing. There is no question the American Government knew this when they claimed - falsely - that weapons would be found.

Public Discourse...

Along with these lies there has emerged a new standard in public political commentary as news outlets moved from reporting the news to commenting on it. The effect of this has been multiplied many times by the advent of social media, which operates absent almost any sense of responsibility regarding political and other such comment.

There is BIG money in spreading conspiracies, and tapping into the new staple of Western political life, which is The Big Lie. Maybe this isn't evil, just normal?

We used to live in the shadows of Giants...Lincoln, Gandhi, Eleanor Roosevelt, Martin Luther King Jr.  Today we cower after having sunk into a new post-reason Dark Age made more sinister by the lights of a perverted information technology.

But wait!  There is more!

One final note on the method of conspiracy theorists.

The method of conspiracy is to assume a fantastical reality, then go looking for the evidence to prove it. The scientific and historical method does the opposite, where one seeks to engage in a search for evidence first, and then reach conclusions reflecting wherever the search has taken you afterward, with no preconditions. The first and illegitimate method is only possible in the Information Age, where all manner of evidence is available to anyone to abuse as they see fit. 

Has unlimited access to information made us the most dishonest generation ever?

 

He Still Thinks He Can Win! Maybe He Can...

 Why won't Trump just admit defeat?

More than six months after the vote, there is no cogent evidence of wide-spread fraud in the 2020 US Presidential election. The results were assessed and confirmed everywhere across the country. No litigation succeeded in overturning any part of the vote anywhere. The constitutional process has played itself out. Joe Biden is legitimately the President of the United States.

No previous candidate has ever done what Trump is doing. By continuing to mobilize his party and supporters against the election result, he is testing American democracy, and he may be setting up a situation that could explode into even more violence at some point in the future.

So why is he doing this? 

There are two reasons.

The first related to Trump's psychology. Trump's worst fear is to ever be seen as a "loser". The fact that he actually lost an election is unacceptable to him to the very core of his being. He is never a loser in his mind, even to the extent that he has to cheat (golf) or lie (elections and many other things) to avoid the approbation that comes with losing. The man has a screw loose. He lost the election...he is a loser.

The second reason is related and has to do with the fact that he is a criminal. At the very least, it is illegal in the USA to use campaign contributions to pay ladies you have slept with to keep their mouths shut about it. There is no question he instructed his lawyer - Cohen - to do just that. At some point, charges will follow and he will be convicted. The prospect of heading to prison would no doubt be too much for Trump to bear...only losers go to the slammer.

This matters because the President of the United States cannot be charged with a crime while he is president. If Trump had won the election, he would be untouchable for four more years, which would have given him time to figure a way out of his various criminal messes...perhaps stepping aside as long as his successor pardoned him for any and all federal crimes that he may have ever committed.

And so, Trump is keeping alive the idea that he did not lose the 2020 election as a criminal defense for when he is charged with at least the charges noted above, and likely many more. When he is charged with any crime, his defense will be that he is actually properly the President of the United States, and that no charges may be brought against him. 

In terms of specific tactics, if he can stay out of jail until the 2022 mid-term elections, and should the Republicans retake the House of Representatives and the Senate, he could coerce his lackeys in the Republican Party to put through a motion recognizing him as the true President of the United States, and repudiating the election of Joe Biden. Trump then would be able to go to any court and say that, because it is at least possible that he could be restored as the President of the United States, any charges should at least be stayed.

Of course, if such a move were supported by Republican states, this could lead to talk of civil war. Given the violence of his supporters, one would think that tens of thousands would take to the streets, armed and ready to support him.

While the country would verge on catastrophe in this scenario, Trump would still be a winner.

And isn't that all that really matters?