Fearless Predictions, 2018!!

Fearless Predictions 2018!

Having missed on just about every prediction for 2017, it is time to try, try again!

Sports:

Baseball: The Blue Jays win the World Series, beating the Chicago Cubs in 6. 

Note - this is conditional on the Blue Jays keeping Donaldson; trading TU-Low and Martin; and hiring Arrieta, and Navarro. They also need average help in the outfield and infield. 

Hockey: Hell freezes over and the Toronto Maple Leafs win the first of three consecutive Stanley Cups. They will beat LA Kings, who will surge in the second half of the season. People from Toronto become insufferable.

Basketball: The Toronto Raptors will make the playoffs, will win the East, but will lose to the Warriors in the NBA Championship.

NFL Football: Pittsburgh Steelers! 

CFL Football: Calgary Stampeders, beating the RedBlacks.

MLS: TFC.

Olympic Hockey: Canada will win with its Spengler Cup team.

Politics:

Ontario: Progressive Conservative minority government; NDP in Opposition; Wynne on board of directors of Ontario Hydro.

BC: Minority government will fall, leading to an NDP majority. Electoral reform referendum will fail.

US Congressional Elections: Democrats barely take the Senate (51 Dem/47 Rep/2 Ind), but not the House of Representatives. Candidates from neither the Republicans or Democrats will do better than at any time since before the Civil War. 

Pre-Prediction!!! - The 2020 Presidential campaign will be a real four way race. 1. Traditional Republican; 2. Tea Party Wingnut; 3. Clinton Democrat (who will be Clinton herself running for the female vote with her daughter); and, 4. Sanders Socialist. The Sanders Socialist will win as the Millennials show up in droves to overturn the five-decade rule of the Boomer Generation.

Trump: Impeached by Congress in Spring, 2018 – before the Congressional Elections - after his son and son-in-law are charged with Conspiracy against the USA.

Putin: Will be re-elected...again and again.

Economics:

Interest Rates: Will be increased 2 x in USA and Canada. As a direct result…

Housing: Toronto prices down 15%; Canada prices down 10%, by June, 2018. 

Markets: Will experience a steep 20% drop in first three months, followed by a partial recovery for the rest of the year. Will end the year down 10%. 

Gold: Will hit $1,400 an ounce by June 1, 2018, and end the year well above $1,300.  

Note - The bubble that has moved from Japanese real estate in the 1980s; to the Asian economies by the mid-1990s; to the IT sector in the late 1990s; to US housing, housing markets elsewhere, and equity markets in the mid 2000's; and now into just about everything courtesy of the lowest interest rates in human history, will finally start to move to Gold.

Bitcoin: Will collapse as nation states assert that it is a haven for criminals, and shut down exchanges/outlaw its use. Reality - there is no way that the world's central banks will allow a competitor like this to survive, unless they control it.

Europe: Will be rocked by anti-austerity/labour market reform demonstrations in Greece, Spain and France. Greece will default, triggering a crisis that will see it prepare to leave the Eurozone. Spain will endure a second independence declaration by the Catalans. Brexit will be reversed following a new referendum in the UK after the minority Conservative Government falls. In spite of all this, Europe will continue to be a bastion of sanity and civility.

NAFTA: The US President will threaten, but back away from a pledge to cancel the trade agreement. The negotiations will go on...and on...and on.

World:

Syria: Will be at peace via an accord brokered by Russia and Iran. Up to 200,000 Syrians will head home from Europe. The West will swallow its pride, and participate in a rebuilding plan.

North Korea: Kim Jong-Un and his family will be assassinated in a military coup when a North Korean missile lands near Los Angeles, and the USA begins targeted airstrikes in retaliation. Peace talks will follow, aimed at unifying the Korean peninsula.

Saudi Arabia: Will experience an attempted coup by hardliners. It will fail, and many of these people will be exposed as ISIS sympathizers and financiers....

ISIS: Will launch a coordinated attack on cities throughout the world at same time and day to demonstrate that it is still very much alive – an ISIS version of the Tet Offensive. It will decline rapidly after this.

China: Will be rocked by demonstrations nation-wide as housing prices and stock markets there start to collapse, threatening the deal that the Communists have made with the people of that country - wealth in return for political subservience. The resulting repression will shock the world.

Culture:

Music: Punk!

2017 Predictions - Revisited

Below is a review of the fearless predictions for 2017....how did things work out? Let's just say that I was off a tad....a big tad!  

Hello!  Welcome to 2017!

Happy Birthday Canada!  You are 150 this year!

And Happy Birthday to Finland - celebrating 100 years of independence from Mother Russia!

Here are the predictions for this year...

Sports:

Chicago's Heyday returns...

Baseball - The Chicago Cubs will repeat as World Champions; the Toronto Blue Jays miss playoffs by 3 games. The post-AA Jays management will keep stocking the farm system in preparation for another generation of mediocrity.

Wrong - Houston reigned supreme.

Hockey - The Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens make the playoffs. The Canadiens go the farthest, eliminated in the semi-finals.  The Chicago Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup.

Mixed - They all made the playoffs, but the Sens went the farthest, and Pittsburgh won.

CFL - The Calgary Stampeders will win the Grey Cup.

Wrong - Hell froze over again, it was the Argos! (Although Calgary made it to the final...)

Super Bowl - The NY Giants will win the Super Bowl, 35 - 21 over the New England Patriots, proving Eli Manning is not a fluke.

Wrong - It was the Patriots again.  And Manning is "questionable".

NBA - The Cleveland Cavaliers will repeat, but the Toronto Raptors will push them to 7 games this time, with four of those games going into overtime. LeBron James will say in later years that this year's Raptors team was the toughest team he ever played against.

Wrong - It was the Warriors beating Cleveland, who walked over Toronto in four games to get there.

National Politics:

Ontario - Premier Kathleen Wynne will be dumped by her party by the Spring.  Hydro rates will rise in celebration.

Wrong - The misgoverning of Ontario continues! 

Canada - Expect a Constitutional Crisis as the new Senate asserts a role beyond the traditional and conventional "sober second thought" role, prompting a suspension of all appointments, and a strong push to abolish the Senate as soon as possible led by Premier Wall in Saskatchewan.

Wrong - The house of sober second thought has mostly behaved...for now!

International Politics:

This will be the year that peace broke out....

Syria - A viable plan for ending the civil war, including a plan to rebuild the country and the return of millions of refugees, will be agreed to and will take hold - sponsored by Putin, Trump, Merkel, and Erdogan. They will jointly win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Wrong - a peace agreement is closer than ever, but not in 2017, and the West is not part of it.

China - Will spark a military confrontation with Japan in the South China Sea as a way to push the USA out of the region, and to deflect internal dissension. The result will be a short, sharp air war that the Japanese will win easily.  The new UN Secretary General will launch a multi-country dialogue - China, Vietnam, Japan, The Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan - that will result in a resource-sharing and environmental protection agreement for the South China Sea, effectively diffusing this powder keg.

Wrong - This powder keg continues to simmer.

Ukraine/Crimea - Trump will broker a deal that recognizes the Russian occupation of Crimea, with compensation to be paid by Russia to Ukraine, and a mutual undertaking on the part of Russia to leave Ukraine alone as long as it never joins NATO. Tensions in Europe will ease.

Wrong - Trump at least supports NATO now!

Africa - The new Secretary General will push for and get an international undertaking to focus on peace in Africa.  The result will be substantial new commitments to peace keeping forces through the continent, especially in Mali, the Congo and Nigeria.

Wrong - Not much positive to comment on here.

North Korea - Kim Jong-un will be assassinated by the military, supported by China which is getting very concerned about the nuclear weapons program of North Korea and the increasingly irrational behaviour of that country's leader. The military will immediately declare a state of Martial Law, after which it will enter into negotiations with South Korea to unify the Korean peninsula. People will freely cross the DMZ by the end of the year. Korea will be unified by the end of 2018.

Wrong - Um, not even close!

USA! USA! USA!: 

Trump's First Year - Expect a massive split between Trump and the Republican Congress, seeing Trump seek and obtain allies among the Democrats to keep most of Obamacare intact while revamping the tax code so as to tax the wealthy more, transferring tax cuts to the middle class and poor. Trump will also refuse to sign any legislation until congress agrees to term limits and campaign financing reform - millions of Americans will take to the streets to support him, and the Congress - both the Republicans and Democrats - will fold. He will launch more vigorous reviews of refugees, but nothing like a ban on all Muslims; he will expel illegal immigrant criminals from the USA, while hinting at a possible path to normalization short of citizenship, both of which will totally confound his critics. His approval rating will hit 75%.

Wrong - Um, no.

Canadian Economy:

Housing - Expect the bubble to start to implode. It will start with a very slow drop in housing prices, 3% this year nationally. With interest rates at historic lows, the B of C will drop them even more to try to keep the bubble afloat. It will fail...the big implosion comes next year, and will see a 50% drop in prices in Vancouver, and 40% in Toronto with a national decline of 10%.

OMG!  Right! - Prices are down the last three straight months, down 2.34% Canada-wide. 

Growth - Canada will enter into recession again as the world's economy slows, specifically Europe and China.

Wrong - Growing, still, just about everywhere.

Deficit - All provincial governments and the federal government will run larger than anticipated deficits. Ontario - the most indebted sub-national government on Earth - will need a cash infusion from Ottawa. The year 2018 will see the start of a decade of significant austerity that makes what happened under Harper look mild.

Wrong - Deficits are lower than predicted.

Banks - The main Canadian banks will go from the world's darlings during the last recession, to being seen as a very significant risk. Expect 20% declines in share prices.

Wrong - They have peaked.

Stocks/Investments:  

Have you been reading my other recent posts?

S&P 500 - Expect 3% rise, then a 20% decline below 1,700 by the fall.

DOW - Expect a 3% rise, then a 25% decline below 15,000 by the fall.

Europe - Expect no rise, then a 35% decline by the fall.

Canada - Expect a 1% rise, then a 30% decline to below 11,000 by the fall.

Wrong - The era of free money continues to prime the pump.

This year could hearken an era of zero stock market price growth similar to what has afflicted Japan for 25 years as politicians worldwide lack the guts to deal with the need to deleverage economies from fiscal and monetary stimulus. The problem with addictive drugs is that they eventually stop working, and you need them just to feel normal...welcome to the stimulus addicted normal.

World Economies:

In general, recessions worldwide. They will be far worse in Europe. This is the year that the stimulus stopped working.

Wrong - The stimulus continues to prime the pump.

China:

Changes in this country will rock the world...

Economy - A significant recession will hit, leading to...

Stock and Housing Markets - A collapse of the housing and stock markets, leading to massive losses on the part of small investors, leading to...

Military Aggression - A military adventure against Japan in the South China Sea to deflect internal dissension (see above), leading to...

Purge - The purge of hard-core Communists by President Xi Jinping will continue and pick up steam, including revelations that these people orchestrated a mass harvesting of human organs from Falun Gong members with the subsequent killing of hundreds of thousands of these people, leading to...

Democracy - The establishment of an independent commission to recommend a path forward for China to move to a democratic form of government.

WOW!

Wrong - The Communist Party continues to reign unimpeded.

Popular Culture:

One word.....DISCO!




Right - It never died!

The End of Trump Neutrality?

We are about to see the end of Net Neutrality, and that could be very bad for Donald Trump.

On this Wednesday, I think it is a given that the Federal  Communications Commission in the USA will allow internet service providers to discriminate between customers, offering different packages for different levels of services. This practice is illegal now as the internet is regulated like a public utility – e.g. think water. If you offer water for sale, you must offer the same water to everyone in your area at the same price.

After Wednesday, this utility status will almost 100% be over for internet services. I say this because I am fairly certain that the wealthy corporations that own internet services in the USA, and who have no doubt bought every single politician who can possibly influence the FCC decision, will have made sure to arrange to get the decision they want.

As with medical care, Americans are about to get gouged to the bone for internet services as well. The main lies that will be told to justify this will be that this will enable competition  - internet services are mainly monopolies in the USA now now; and the development of new programming and content - in a country with the most prolific program development on planet earth.

This means that the price of the internet will be rising dramatically throughout the USA. Again, this could be very bad for Donald Trump.

So far, nothing has stuck to President Trump.

Not his shameless lies – too numerous to count.

Not his use of Twitter to engage in banter that reduces his office to something like the level of a playground spat between five year olds.

Not his history of shameless treatment of women - even in the midst of what may be a cultural revolution regarding how women are treated by people in power.

Not an ever-increasing list of charges related to dealings with Russia by his Trump election-team associates – even when the US intelligence services have confirmed, and he has agreed, that Russia tried to subvert that last US presidential election.

Not his relentless failure to move on the marquee aspects of his electoral agenda ahead – no repeal of Obamacare; no 45% tariff on China or declaration that China is a currency manipulator; no balanced federal budget or any chance of the debt being paid; no economic growth of 4% a year; no new border wall that Mexico will pay for; no tax reform giving families of two a 35% tax cut; no lowering the business tax rate to 15% (it will likely be 20%.)

Not his cavalier foreign policy that threatens peace on earth – including: baiting the madman in North Korea; recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in an obvious attempt to divert attention from the Mueller probe; and, tepid support for NATO in the face of an increasingly aggressive Russia.

Trump’s success to date has come down to his fabulous talent for unifying his tribe – the Trump Republicans – and his useful allies in the press. This may be about to end.

None of the issues noted above actually hits home with his supporters. They likely don’t care about things like the recognition of Jerusalem, and they will give him a pass on anything that requires Congressional approval, like tax reform.

But they may not give him a pass when they have to pay 100% more for internet access that is actually worse than what they have now, which is a very real scenario after Net Neutrality disappears on Wednesday.

All politics is local, and the primary consideration for all voters is their pocketbook. Issues that speak to billions and trillion of dollars, like the corporate tax give-away that is making its way through the Congress, are too remote for most voters to grasp or care about. But raising the price of internet access even by $20 a month will strike home with everyone, everywhere in that country, including Trump’s base. Unlike the issues above, he will be blamed, personally.

It is worth noting that only about 75% of Americans are using the internet – placing the USA 34th in the world in terms of internet usage. I would think that this absolutely disgraceful level of internet usage is to be expected in a country where one in eight people live on food stamps, and likely can’t afford any internet access at all. How many people will be losing their access in coming years and months as American corporate providers squeeze the citizens of that country for all they are worth?

Taxes? We Don't Pay No Stinking Taxes!

Step right up folks, witness the greatest tax give-away in human history!!!

The US Congress is about to approve a cut in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which is simply awesome! When you consider that the effective rate is actually about 20% already, this may mean that some US corporations may soon pay an effective rate of….wait for it….ZERO PERCENT, depending on what generous write-offs stay in place!

But wait! There is MORE!!

The USA requires American corporations to pay tax on their foreign earnings. Right now, there is between $1.6 - $2.1 Trillion in corporate profits overseas that has not been returned to the USA in order to avoid taxes on that money.

This works out to between $560 Million and $735 Million in tax revenue at the 35% rate, or between $320 Million and $420 Million in tax revenue at the effective rate that has not been remitted to the tax man because these taxes are not owed until they actually land in the USA. The higher number here is actually larger that the US Government’s deficit for this year. If it were to be remitted, the US Government would have a surplus.

So, what is coming?

The US Congress will reduce the rate of corporate taxation on this foreign-earned revenue to 10% on what they actually have overseas now, and then to zero after that. This has been proposed to encourage these companies to actually bring their profits back to America, and pay any tax.

Get it?

The Congressmen, who have been bought by these same corporations, are proposing to soak the US Government for between $525 Million at the top end and $160 Million at the bottom end in tax revenue lost to the US Government. They will then ensure that the US Government gets nothing from the foreign profits of US Corporations ever again. Has there ever been a greater tax give-away in human history!?

Hmm...there is a thought. Why would Congress not tell these companies that the rate will go up to 50% within a year of they do not remit their foreign profits at the 35% rate, or these profits will be imputed to their domestic operations and taxed accordingly? That would definitely get this money flowing into the US Treasury!!

Well, we all know why such an approach is impossible. This “pay your fair share of taxes owing” approach presupposes, again, that Congress - Republicans and Democrats - aren’t actually owned by corporate America.

Reality - US corporations dictated the tax reform bill now going through Congress, and US Congressmen know their place.

I should add that a zero tax rate on foreign corporate earnings is not abnormal. But US corporations owe hundreds of millions of dollars NOW.  There is no excuse for not seeking to have all taxes that are owed remitted asap. The little people have to pay all of the tax they owe - why are these corporations getting a free ride?  

Is it because they invest and create jobs? This money was earned OVERSEAS! Why is the US Congress rewarding US corporations that invest and create jobs OUTSIDE of the USA?

This gift to US corporations underscores just about everything wrong in that country today - there is one America for the rich and their corporations, and one for everyone else. This will not last, and it may not end well.

Flynn!!!

Well, I guess The Donald doesn’t read my blog! I advised him to pardon Flynn and his son asap and before Mueller got to him...too late!

We need to talk collusion.

The Right Wing press in the USA is screaming three things.

First, this conviction is not proof of collusion. Proof of this would require proof of actual cooperation between Russia and the Trump campaign to subvert the last presidential election. They are correct in their assertion.

Second, they are asserting that the thing that Flynn has been charged with, namely lying to the cops, refers to events that happened after the election, so again, no proof of collusion. They are also right - Flynn was not cooperating with Russians to steal the US election during the election.

Finally, they are saying that the National Security Advisor is supposed to talk to people as a new administration is being formed - that this was normal.

Well, no.

Dealing with the last point first.

The US intelligence services have confirmed that Russia tried to subvert the last presidential election in the USA. Even Trump accepts this now. Because of this, any conversations between any officials and Russia in or around the last election are therefore immediately suspect. And Flynn lied to the FBI about those same chats to the point that he is now a convicted felon (as did Papodopoulos). Sorry, this was not business as usual.

Regarding the other two points above - there is no proof of actual collusion, and Flynn could not have been the one cooperating with Russia during the election - why is his arrest and conviction devastating for Trump?

Flynn will now testify that he discussed the issue of sanctions with the Ambassador from Russia after the election, at the request of a Trump transition team official, who is likely Kushner.

This matters because the collusion would have presumably been in the form of a deal - Russia helps with the election, and the Trump administration gives something in return, in this case, a relaxation of the sanctions on Russia that were imposed as a result of its annexation of Crimea.

If this was the deal, then the fact that Flynn was charged stemming from things that happened after the election, or that he could not have been part of any collusion during the election - the things now claimed by the Right Wing press to excuse this - are completely irrelevant.

Flynn’s role was not the subverting of the election, but the delivery of the quid pro quo after the election, namely the relaxation of sanctions. His role in this was therefore absolutely crucial - he may have been the conduit for the payoff to Russia for its help in beating Clinton.

It is important to note that Flynn only got nailed on one charge – nothing about failing to register as a foreign agent, and/or making other false or misleading statements. I think Mueller and crew had him dead to rights on all of this other stuff. That he got away with only one charge, and his son was not charged at all, suggests to me that he had lots of helpful information to trade in order to make the other stuff go away. He may even testify that he was instructed by Trump himself to make the contacts to Russia regarding the sanctions. And...maybe he can even help put together an obstruction of justice charge related to the Comey firing.

What is certain is that we do not know the whole story yet, and I now suspect it is exceptionally damaging for Trump.

“NO COLLUSION!”

In an era of shameless lying in sports, the entertainment industry, and politics, this may prove to be the most significant lie of our age.

Advising Trump

So, what to do?

If I were advising President Trump, I would have just learned that General Flynn's lawyers were no longer communicating with any lawyers working for the White House or for Trump himself. This happens when the clients are adverse in interest - the clear implication is that Flynn is now cooperating with Mueller.

What follows is a blue sky exploration of what President Trump may want to do in order to slow the closing of the FBI's net around him and his administration. I say "slow" rather than "stop" because, short of firing Muller and his entire team or ordering Sessions to end their investigation, their work will go forward.

To start - the one thing that Trump cannot do is fire Mueller. He already already pulled the trigger on this option by firing Comey. If he does this twice, he would face immediate Congressional opposition from people in both parties. Still, he has plenty of other tools available to him.

Step 1 - Trump needs to pardon Flynn and his son NOW.

As noted, it looks like Flynn is cooperating with Mueller. Flynn would know potentially damaging information regarding how Russia attempted to influence the Trump administration as it was being formed immediately following that last presidential election. Specifically, it seems clear that Russia, through its ambassador to the United States, tried to have an impact on the formation of US foreign policy after the election by engaging Flynn after he was pegged to be the new National Security Advisor.

Of course, the Russians already had a burgeoning relationship with Flynn. It is likely that the Russians tried to use this relationship to try to influence the US policy on Crimea and Ukraine and the related embargo. If this was the case, it would show the first direct link between Trump and his new administration and Russian meddling. He needs to stop Flynn from cooperating, asap. And so, Trump should pardon Flynn and his son, who was party to many of the connections to Russia, asap.

Doing this destroys all the leverage that Mueller has over Flynn and his son stemming from what may be money-laundering somehow related to Reza Zarrab, a Turkish-Iranian businessman recently released from a US prison, in circumstances that suggest he may cooperate with Mueller's team to build a case against Mueller. See here...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/16/a-turkish-businessman-may-be-cooperating-with-flynn-investigation.html

There is no question that pardoning Flynn will raise the ire of the bought Left-wing press in the USA. CNN will go apoplectic.

To cover this, Trump should argue that, unlike Manafort, Gates and Papadopoulos, Flynn has not been charged with anything, so there is no harm in pardoning him. He may also want to present Flynn as a struggling patriot, caught up in a web of Left-Democratic intrigue.

Of course, it is likely that none of this is true, but as noted in a blog on March 10, 2016,  "The New American Prince and the Necessity of Lying", not only can Trump lie to protect his interests and his administration, in the America of today, he must lie - he is actually expected to lie - in order to rally those who support him...his tribe.

Just as he got away with firing Comey, Trump would get away with a strategically targeted pardon. The Republicans would rally, the Democrats would be upset - nothing would change.

But Trump should only use this weapon once. If he were to pardon others as the Mueller investigation proceeds, especially if he were to pardon people who had been charged, his ability to lie and distort to cover this actions would be subsumed by the rising outrage that would follow. It is not that he can never use this, or even the power to fire people again, but short of absolute desperation, he should hold off after pardoning the Flynns.

2. Send Kushner and Trump Jr. out of the country.

Trump should immediately send his son and son-in-law out of the United States, specifically to a jurisdiction which does not have an extradition treaty with the United States.

These two men attended the infamous meeting with a representative of the Russian state on June 16, 2016, which, as has been noted in this blog, could easily be the basis of a conspiracy charge. They need to be put out of the reach if the Mueller investigation, especially as the ring of truth begins to close around them, and with that, the possibility that charges of any sort may follow with the type of conditions that Manafort now lives under - a.k.a. house arrest. They will not be able to avoid being questioned by Mueller's people even if they are in a foreign country, but if they were outside the USA, they could control the place for any such meeting, as well as its timing. It could take months for them to be questioned, and every delay helps Trump.

As with pardoning Flynn, Trump will have to provide a convenient excuse for this move. If he were to formally sever their ties with the Administration, this would afford him an opportunity to say they would be exploring new business opportunities in other countries, or that they need to take a break from the stresses of the work they have been doing on behalf of America - to spend more time with their families. Of course, this would be 100% bull shit....see above re: the necessity of lying.

Oh, I need to ask how is it possible that these two men are still in the White House given the investigation that is underway!? Is anyone ethical in the Trump Administration? The second they came under suspicion of something that could border on treason, they had to immediately recuse themselves from all responsibilities until their names were cleared. This should have been the very forceful advice from legal counsel. Are there any lawyers in the House!?

3. Push The Uranium One Investigation.

This is a grand diversion - the investigation of the Clintons and their dealings with Russia before Trump arrived on the scene. The Left-Democrats hate this and see it as a complete fraud. In fact, it is an almost perfect diversion, and it needs to be pursued with vigor.

Trump is under suspicion of having illicit contacts with Russia. The Uranium One issue is premised on the possibility that his opponent in the last presidential election and her husband had even more illicit dealings with the same people.

Understand, the point isn't to actually charge the Clintons with anything. It is to undercut the Mueller investigation by suggesting that the Clinton's misdeeds with Russia were worse than those of Trump, so why investigate Trump? Those on the Left who argue that there is nothing here may be inadvertently aiding Trump's cause.

The Uranium One issue also obviously strengthens Trump's claim to have been elected in a free and fair election by making his opponent look even more corrupt than he is. The main accusation is that Trump colluded wit Russia to steal the election. If Clinton was working with the same people, in even more questionable circumstances, every claim she makes to be aggrieved looks suspect.  

Pushing this issue also unites Trump's party around an issue they can use to fight the elections that will be held in less than 18 months. There is no question that the issues surrounding Trump have started to hurt Republican fortunes. It does this by causing Republican voters to stay at home, while pushing Democrats to come put to the polls. Having something to bash the Clintons with at election time will have a very good effect on voter turn out, which, in a country where less than 50% of people vote, is the the issue that actually decides every US election.

Finally, and most importantly, pushing this issue gives Trump the possibility of ordering Sessions to close down the Muller investigation at some point in the future.

He can't do this until there is a general sense that this is a "nothing burger". He is not there yet, and may never get there, but bashing the Clintons at least opens the possibility of closing down Mueller some day, especially if he able to drag this out as suggested by the tactics noted above, and he can show that the Clintons are actually worse than he is.

In short, the sentiment that "they are all evil" is his ticket out of this mess, as the apathy and hopelessness that such a sentiment evokes cannot possibly sustain the type of effort Mueller will need as the ring closes around Trump. Put another way, if everyone is evil, who cares?

Conclusion:

The strategy for Trump is simple - delay where he can, and undercut support for the investigation by focusing on the Clinton's misdeeds in the hopes of finding an opportunity to formerly shut Mueller down.

If Trump cannot shut down this investigation, he is done. Once his son and son-in-law are charged, and that day is coming, no one will support him and he will be impeached. Given the dire implications for him and his administration, he should use every tool he has at his disposal - driving his actions as close as he can to the line that is continuing Congressional support without actually going over that line.

Apologia - I don't actually want Trump to do any of the above - this is a purely hypothetical exercise. If I were really his advisor, I would tell him to recognize that he is manifestly unfit for office and to resign, now.

But sometimes it is "interesting" pretending to be pure evil. Hmmm...will this blog generate job offers?!

 

Trump de jour

Mueller’s team is about to interview some high fliers in the Trump White House. This includes White House communications director Hope Hicks, counsel Don McGahn and Josh Raffel who is a communications aide to Jared Kushner. Other staff are also expected to be interviewed.

There is commentary amongst the chattering media that interviewing these people who are so close to Trump means Mueller is near the end of his investigation, and Trump will soon be exonerated. Ty Cobb, Trump’s lawyer, is apparently leading this narrative.

Well, I think not.

Mueller is likely trying to get these people on the record as soon as possible. I think that, like Papadopoulos, many of these people are shameless liars, ripe for the picking on later obstruction of justice charges to encourage cooperation as things start to come together. Call this the Martha Stewart strategy - she was not convicted of insider trading, but went to jail because she lied to the police about what she knew about an insider tip regarding IMClone stock.

The thing is, the cops interview people all the time. These people may just be arrogant enough to think they can put one over on them….just keep talking…

The Russia Collusion Thing

“No Collusion!”  This refrain is repeated constantly by President Trump and his media minions on Fox and in the print media. It begs a consideration of the links between his associates and Russia in and around the last presidential election in the USA.

I was going to do a blog on all the ties between Trump affiliated people and the Russians, but this has already been done. See here...

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/connections-trump-putin-russia-ties-chart-flynn-page-manafort-sessions-214868

This is over six months old, and other links have been revealed since then, but it is excellent - way better than anything I could do.

Here is an updated timeline of the links to Russia...

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/a-timeline-of-the-trump-russia-scandal-w511067

In the face of a relentlessly compromised journalism in the USA, on both the Left and Right, some organizations are still just sticking to the facts. Thank goodness. There may be hope!

So what do we know?

While having a relationship with Russians is not a crime, given the depth and breadth of these links, it is simply impossible to not have concerns about Russian influence over President Trump and his entourage both before, during and after the last presidential election. Some of the ties were directly with representatives of the Russian state during the formation of his administration, and/or with Putin himself.  

Keep in mind that the US intelligence services confirmed months ago that Russia did engage in interference in the US presidential election.  Trump has recently said that he sides with them, conveniently ignoring the essential point that the conclusion that there was Russian influence may serve as an indictment of his election and his entire administration.  But what choice did he have - he runs the intelligence services now.  

With this in mind, the only issue for consideration is did anyone associated with Trump help the Russians interfere in the election?  Or, does any of this amount to collusion?

So far, this could be seen as mostly host of seemingly inconvenient connections that point in the direction of common interests and hoped for outcomes, and possible opportunities for cooperation and joint benefit.  However, it does go beyond this...there are many causes for significant concern, pointing directly to possible collusion.

Consider that one person has been convicted of lying to the FBI about these contacts - Papadopoulos - and two others continue to apologize for lapses in memory related to their Russian contacts - even when testifying under oath before Congress (Sessions and Kushner.)  This does not bode well for Trump.  People who have nothing to hide do not typically try to hide things.

We also know that there is a strong likelihood that contacts with the Russians influenced the downgrading of the Republican party policy on Ukraine - before such contacts the Republicans were considering a policy of arming Ukraine, afterward they were not at the insistence of the Trump campaign.

As well, there are apparent links to WikiLeaks, where many of the damaging e-mails regarding Clinton and her associates likely came from hackers who were linked to Russia.  If Trump linked persons knew that this came from hacking activities of a foreign power trying to influence a US presidential election, they had to call the police, not try to reap the political benefits.

Finally, and as has been noted in these pages, the crime of conspiracy to subvert a US presidential election in concert with a foreign power can probably be made out as a result of the meeting that Manafort, Kushner and Trump Jr, attended on June 16, 2016. They went to the meeting to do just that, and they received information, reviewed it, and handed it back with a view to possibly using the information to damage the Clinton campaign.  Understand - this is not research.  If it was in concert with a foreign government to subvert a US election, it is criminal activity in the same vein as treason. In my opinion, this act of reviewing material cements the crime of conspiracy as you usually need an act to accompany any conspiratorial plan. We shall see.

And so, the “smoking gun” hasn’t been found, but there are so many plumes of smoke spiraling skyward here that Smokey the Bear would have significant concerns that the entire forest is about to burn down.  

Stay tuned. Put out your campfires...

Blue Jays!!

What should the Blue Jays do???

They have some excellent young pitchers, a few average infielders and a couple of average young outfielders, plus Donaldson.

The other guys on this team are past their best-before dates. It is time to plan to have a full complement of competitive talent for two - three years from now - meaning, the young pitchers we have now who will still be good in two years, plus a host of new talent from trades and the farm system.  This means that if they are going to trade Donaldson - who is a free agent next year, so prime trade bait right now - than they need to realize that this means a rebuild, so they need to trade the rest for what they can get now as well.

If they try half-measures - trade Donaldson to try to be competitive next year - they will fail. This management duo has been coasting with AA's team, although getting Happ was brilliant, while losing Encarnacion was unforgivable.  

Management Lesson - if you don't make a guy an offer in free agency, he probably won't say yes.

They own what happens from here.

We are 103 days from the first Spring Training game.

Go Jays Go!

Who's been buying?

The US stock market is massively overvalued by many historic metrics.

The Shiller Price/Earnings ratio has only been this high once since the Great Depression, and that was during the high tech bubble...

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

The Q Ratio also says that we are in uncharted territory....

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/11/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-october-update

So, with the market arguable massively overvalued, the question is….who has been buying stocks at these levels?

Here is the answer. It looks like much of the market’s price growth has been a result of companies borrowing cheap money, and buying back their own shares in the stock market, which has the effect of increasing the price.  See here…

And here….

This implies that much of the the trillions of US dollars that have been lent to Corporate America courtesy of historically low interest rates - the lowest in human history - to expand the economy has instead been going to pump stock prices, which, of course, fattens the pocketbooks of the people who own/manage those companies.

America is about to do new corporate tax cuts to spur investment, with no requirement that anyone invest any money in anything. Given Corporate America's preference for paying itself rather than investing, and given that these tax cuts could just as easily go as bonuses to the wealthy people who run these companies, is it fair to say that everyone should know at this point that this policy won't work?

This what type of cat?...