North Korea has been trying to develop nuclear weapons since at least 1963, when the Soviet Union was asked to help them develop the bomb, and the Russians declined. Instead, they helped North Korea develop nuclear power for civil use. Much like India, once North Korea obtained nuclear know-how, they began to convert it to military purposes.
Their first reactor was operational in 1965, courtesy of Russian expertise. They started to develop their own civil reactor in the late 1970's, and a nuclear bomb development program in earnest in the early 1980's.
In 1993, North Korea announced that it would leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The North Koreans had ratified this treaty in 1985, but the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors the treaty, reported non-compliance with a required safeguards agreement and a refusal to consent to specific inspections to the UN Security Council in 1993. The North Koreans announced their withdrawal from the treaty shortly thereafter, but backed off when the United States undertook to supply two light water nuclear reactors in return for North Korea suspending its nuclear weapons program (Undertaking 1).
This agreement collapsed in 2002, and about this time Pakistan admitted that North Korea had been given access to its nuclear weapons program technology. North Korea itself later admitted that it was not in compliance with the agreement it had made in 1993 to suspend its nuclear program.
In 2005, North Korea again withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In 2005, North Korea stated that it now had such weapons, but it again undertook to shut down its program (Undertaking II). It exploded its first nuclear weapon in 2006, confirming this in January, 2007.
Later in 2007, North Korea undertook to close its nuclear program as a part of a six nation agreement (Undertaking III). The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that it had shut down one of its reactors, and it started to receive aid thereafter. This agreement ended when North Korea launched a satellite in 2009, with the obvious implication that it had continued to work on missile technology. North Korea conducted a second nuclear test in May, 2009.
In February 2012, North Korea undertook to suspend Uranium enrichment and to suspect any more tests while negotiations with he United States continued. This included a moratorium on long-range missile tests (Undertaking IV). In return for this, North Korea was to get food shipments and negotiations to normalize relations. North Korea conducted a missile test in April of that year, and that agreement ended as well.
North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2013 and two in 2016. In February, 2016, North Korea claimed to have put a satellite in orbit.
In 2017, North Korea launched two ICBMs, the second of which could theoretically have reached the United States. North Korea also conducted another nuclear test, this time claiming that they have a hydrogen bomb.
The world has imposed sanctions, and is scrambling to get North Korea to the negotiating table in an effort to coerce or incite it to end a program that has been underway for about 40 years, where they have breached four previous undertakings to suspend this same program. North Korea has reopened a phone link with South Korea and has started talks again, perhaps related to joint participation at the Olympics. There is no hint that they intend to stop any nuclear-arms related activities.
As the old saying goes, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, shame on me."
This country, which operates like a Medieval Stalinist Monarchy, and which is in breach of about every single norm of basic human rights known to humankind, cannot be trusted to keep any agreement related to nuclear weapons. It sees the future of the regime, and the development of a nuclear-tipped ICBM capable of threatening this continental USA, as inexorably linked. If recent history is a guide, there is no way they will stop this activity no matter what agreement they sign.
So, what if the world just lets them continue, which is what negotiating an agreement actually means?
Is the world ready for ten years from now, when North Korea will presumably have 20 - 50 ICBMs each armed with with nuclear weapons, which is surely what they intend to develop?
And, is the world ready for rogue states to acquire ICBM technology and actual missiles from North Korea, and maybe nuclear weapons as well, given that they already sell all the missiles they can to all comers to generate hard currency for their moribund economy?
And what about other countries? Will South Korea and Japan sit back idle while North Korea develops the ability to wipe them off planet earth? Is it not obvious that they will eventually look to "self help" in the form of their own nuclear programs?
If North Korea is permitted to continue on the road to nuclear proliferation, the future is very bleak indeed. Again, diplomacy will not work here - they do not abide by their undertakings.
But North Korea's ultimate target is the USA. No US President can allow this future to develop.
What to do?
As Trump has done, the USA must take a VERY firm stance with North Korea.
It should be made clear that, should a North Korean ICBM test land off the continental USA, the Americans will have to make a military response - perhaps destroy North Korea's navy and air force to send the signal that they stand no chance in a conventional war, and impose a complete embargo - nothing in, and nothing out. This could cause the North Korean military to act, overthrowing the present regime, and seeking real negotiations. If not, then at the very least it may change the calculus in Kim Jong Un's mind - the path of nuclear proliferation is not perpetual power, but the same future as that of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gadaffi.
This entails a massive risk to South Korea and to Seoul in particular, which is in artillery range of North Korea. The fact is that these guns have been pointed at Seoul for fifty plus years. This confrontation will come now, or only after North Korea has perfected a nuclear armed ICBM. I can't see how this risk can be avoided. Yes, this is a horrible situation.
No comments:
Post a Comment