Trump's New Problem

Trump has a deal with Ergogen to stop the invasion of Syria by Turkey, which puts America's ally, the Kurds, at grave risk. 

In fact, the point of the invasion was to destroy what the Turks see as a terrorist threat from the Kurds. The invasion risked a complete breakdown of relations between Turkey and the USA. It looks like that will not happen now.

All good...

Trump faces impeachment in Congress. 

The impeachment investigation will go where it will go - likely a vote for impeachment in the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, and a refusal to impeach in the Republican-controlled Senate.

But maybe not. 

Yesterday the House of Representatives voted to censure Trump over the withdrawal of US forces from Syria to make room for the Turkish invasion. US forces were replaced by Russian forces. This censure was widely supported by Republicans. At least some of them may have reached the end point of their blind, unthinking support for Trump.

So what is the new problem?

I think that Trump's new problem is Pence. 

Pence has just given a press conference that looked....normal. It was a glimpse of what a President Pence could look like, and he looked...normal.

Hmmmm...maybe not "MAGA", but "MANA"! 

"Make America Normal Again!"

I think there is no question that at the same time that Republicans, including some of Trump's staunchest allies, are questioning his running of foreign policy, they are also thinking about 2020, and the possibility of dumping him in time to pick someone more palatable to the Establishment.  He is the shit disturber - Trump was definitely not seen as "their guy", and he was even a Democrat and supporter of Clinton previously. I am certain they have never forgotten this, and many would love to see him gone.

So, I think these are dangerous days for Trump. 

If the impeachment probe finds that he clearly tried to coerce Ukraine into investigating Biden to gain a political advantage in the coming election, that would be a crime. Do the Republicans so clearly love Trump that they will support him even if it is obvious that he committed the crime of Conspiracy Against the USA?  

Until today, I would have said "yes". 

But with this glimpse of what "normal" could look like post-Trump, it may be that everyone should be redoing their sums.

"President Pence" looked refreshingly normal, and "normal" is Trump's worst nightmare.