Professor Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the last nine US presidential elections. His model is simple - if any six of these questions are seen as False, the sitting president will lose.
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Let's see if Trump will be re-ected according to this model.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
The Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
There are no serious competitors to Trump, however, some Republicans have organized media campaigns against him which is unprecedented - True/False
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Trump is the president - True
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
There is no third party or independent challenger of note - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
The economy will be in recession - False
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
The growth is above the mean for the two previous terms - True...however, the effects of COVID 19 may mask this entirely...a weaker than normal indicator.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
There have been major policy changes - True
8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
The George Lloyd's murder may result in sustained unrest, but we will not know for months - True
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
The entire administration has been a scandal - impeachment will hurt Trump here - False
10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
The foreign policy pursued by Trump has seen no major failures - True
11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Trump has launched no wars but renewing NAFTA was a major foreign policy success - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Trump is a hero to tens of millions/a vagabond to tens of millions - no American president has ever worked so hard to divide his country - True/False
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Biden has charisma - False
The totals...
True - 9
False - 6
Trump will lose the next presidential election, but we are in uncharted waters as we are seeing opposition to an incumbent from within his own party, and the most divisive president in history, and we do not know how these will play out. Both of these indicators are negative for Trump.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
There is no third party or independent challenger of note - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
The economy will be in recession - False
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
The growth is above the mean for the two previous terms - True...however, the effects of COVID 19 may mask this entirely...a weaker than normal indicator.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
There have been major policy changes - True
8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
The George Lloyd's murder may result in sustained unrest, but we will not know for months - True
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
The entire administration has been a scandal - impeachment will hurt Trump here - False
10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
The foreign policy pursued by Trump has seen no major failures - True
11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Trump has launched no wars but renewing NAFTA was a major foreign policy success - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Trump is a hero to tens of millions/a vagabond to tens of millions - no American president has ever worked so hard to divide his country - True/False
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Biden has charisma - False
The totals...
True - 9
False - 6
Trump will lose the next presidential election, but we are in uncharted waters as we are seeing opposition to an incumbent from within his own party, and the most divisive president in history, and we do not know how these will play out. Both of these indicators are negative for Trump.
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