Possible Ukraine Settlement

The Russians are stalled and are focusing on fully occupying the Donets and Luhansk regions. In short, rather than conquer the entire country, they seem to be settling for capturing Eastern Ukraine. 

The Russians will not win, and the whole world has a stake in this matter being settled as soon as possible so as to avoid an escalation to a wider war.

A settlement of this conflict could see the following:

1. All hostilities will cease immediately. Humanitarian aid will be allowed into regions occupied by the Russians. Russia will immediately return all Ukrainian citizens who may have been forcibly removed to Russia.

2. Ukraine and Russia will exchange all prisoners of war.

3. Russia will evacuate all areas of Ukraine outside of Crimea or the Donets and Luhansk regions within a week of the agreement.

4. There will be UN-supervised referenda in Crimea and the Donets and Luhansk regions within three months to ascertain whether residents want to stay within Ukraine or join Russia. Ukraine and Russia will cooperate with and facilitate these referenda. Neither country will seek to move residents into these regions in order to influence the outcomes of the referenda.

5. Russia will evacuate either Crimea or the Donets and Luhansk regions within one week should the  referenda that indicate that the residents in the regions would prefer to remain part of Ukraine.

6. Russia and Ukraine will go to arbitration to settle on compensation for Ukraine should either Crimea of the Donets and Luhansk regions opt join Russia. The arbitrators will be chosen by the UN Security Council, absent Russia.

7. Ukraine will guarantee that it will not seek to join NATO.

8. Russia will guarantee that it will not interfere in Ukraine internal affairs, and that Ukraine will be free to pursue any economic or political arrangements with other nations.

9. Ukraine and Russia will convene a joint dispute settling body to facilitate settlement of future disputes. 

This would be an agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Other nations would be free to maintain whatever relationship with the two countries that they prefer, including keeping sanctions against Russia or aid to Ukraine.