The editorial board of mewetree.blogspot.com has predicted a very narrow Harris victory on the 2024 United States presidential election. This was based on her strong showing in public opinion polls right after she received the Democratic Party nomination.
And then, Kamala Harris and the Democrats happened...
Readers of this blog will note that prior to this the editorial board did think that Donald Trump would "...wipe the floor with Harris if she is nominated." Indeed, it looks like that is exactly what he will do, as he now leads in every single battleground state.
See here...
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Real Clear Politics has Trump up by 0.1% in national polling. This is misleading. In the 2016 and 2020 presidential election campaigns, the pollsters proved to be off by about 2 - 3%, with polls being badly skewed in favour of the Democrats.
For example, just before the vote in 2016, Clinton led Trump by over 4%. On election day, Clinton only got 2.1% more votes than Trump, and he won the Electoral College. In 2020, Biden was ahead by over 7% in the polls on the day of the election, but he only beat Trump by 4.5%.
If previous pro-Democrat polling bias holds true, Trump is probably ahead of Harris by about 2.5%. With this level of support on election day, Trump will win the election in what could be a landslide, winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
So what happened?
Harris is a terrible candidate. She seemingly cannot answer simple questions with straight-forward answers. Hillary Clinton had the same problem. This is probably because she has been told that if she takes a firm position on anything, she will lose votes. The concept of gaining votes and/or that her refusal to answer questions leaves voters thinking she will not be able to make decisions should she become the President may have not occurred to her. There is a reason why the press wasn't allowed anywhere near her for the first month of her campaign.
But something else is happening...
The Democrats appear to have slammed up against the sad reality that they don't actually understand at least half of the American population, and their view of the world is unfamiliar to most voters. When they look at that population, they see groups divided by gender, race, age, education level, ethnicity, income level, etc. They don't see actual people, in and of themselves. Most people in America don't see the country that way.
Because they are "class" oriented, the Democrats propose policies designed to buy the votes of these specific groups, with those proposals specifically targeted at those groups.
For example, they have proposed $25,000 for young people to buy their first home. As well, they would set up a loan initiative allowing Black people to borrow up to $20,000 each toward establishing their first businesses, with the loans guaranteed by the federal government.
These and similar initiatives are essentially federally-funded bribes targeted to groups whose votes the Democrats believe they own, with the bribes promised to encourage them to go the extra mile and come out to support Harris on November 5th. The $20,000 loan guarantee was proposed owing to Harris's declining standing with Black male voters. If she was not doing worse with this group of people, the loan initiative would not have been proposed, as the Democrats see no utility in proposals such as this other than their ability to buy them votes.
Let's make this clear - the Democrats often do not have a perspective on how American should be run, outside of this type of targeted policy proposal. For them, much of governance comes down to a class analysis, where "class" is reduced to the characteristics noted above - especially race, gender, sexual preference, and age. Democrat policy is often about class division and political exploitation, not about wise policy in and of itself.
Compare that to what Trump does.
Trump has policy proposals for people and for the entire country, not classes. He probably doesn't give a rat's ass about anyone other than himself, but in providing guidance on what he intends to do if he again gains office, he doesn't break the population down by their characteristics, with the population encompassing each characteristic presumably deserving of different policy proposals, and even different rights. Proposals like ending taxation of tips, stopping illegal immigration and renegotiating free trade agreements are not directed at any identifiable group. Like him or not, he speaks to all Americans as Americans, not to subsets of them.
The American people may be starting to get it. The waning of support for Harris amongst groups like Black men may suggest that at least some of these people increasingly dislike identity politics, which is the only way that Democrats play the game. They especially won't like being called misogynist, racist, sexist and all the other "ists" that the Democrats use to demonize the people who are part of the groups that they don't like (Whites, men, heterosexuals, religious people, capitalists, etc.) The stupidity of demonizing large and specifically identifiable sections of the population, then asking for their votes, is mindboggling - Biden may have been a way station between the "Deplorables" of Hillary Clinton, and the woke agenda of Kamala Harris.
Let's chat about identify, specifically Harris's identity.
Trump appeared before the National Association of Black Journalists in July, and questioned Harris's Black heritage, stating that he had always thought she was Indian as that is how she had presented herself. He was savaged in the left media, which claimed this was evidence of his racism.
And yet, 20% of Black men would vote for Trump if the election were held today, and he would get 15% of the Black vote overall. In 2020, he only got an estimated 9% of the that vote. The 6% change in his favour could spell the end of the Harris campaign, as it could hand many of the hotly-contested battleground states to Trump.
While Harris will still get an estimated 85% of the Black vote, one has to wonder if Trump's viscous dig at her heritage has struck a chord with some people - as in, do a significant minority of Black people actually think that Harris is not really "Black"? (For the record, she is.)
In comparison to her 85% support, 95% of Black voters supported Obama in 2008, and 93% supported him in 2012. That 10% loss of support for Harris amongst Black voters is massive, but is it really inexplicable?
We need to ask...who is Kamala Harris, really?
Her failure to show America who she is and what she stands for, instead of focusing on attacking Trump, is slowly destroying her campaign (Note - if someone starts calling their political opponent a "Fascist" who loves Hitler, they have reached the "jump the shark" point of their campaign...it's over.) Even to the extent she has defined herself, many don't like what they see. There is a reason why she got no delegates in her 2020 campaign to become the Democratic nominee.
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