Trump has never stopped saying that he thought he won the United States presidential election in 2020. The standard response is to state that there were about 60 court challenges to the outcome, and that they almost all failed. Besides that, there is literally no evidence of wide-spread fraud, and none has been produced to date.
Having said that, no one seems to have tried to figure out why he continues to maintain that he won, except to state that he is knowingly lying - which is admittedly normal conduct for him - and that he knows that he lost.
What if he isn't lying, and he actually believe this? Where might this belief come from?
This blog has illustrated that the charges against Trump in Georgia related to election interference are highly questionable. The reason for this is that Trump never stated in the conversation that is much of the the basis of the charges that he thought he lost the election. Without proving this mental element, charges cannot be made out as no one will be able to show that he has a guilty mind. See here...
https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2024/01/trump-v-raffensperger.html
Let's take a closer look at Georgia in 2020 to try to glean why Trump may still think he won.
On election day in 2020, Trump led Biden by 0.2% in the polls in Georgia, and in 2016, he led Clinton by 4.8%. See here...
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/georgia/trump-vs-harris
We know that polls in the 2016 and 2020 elections were skewed in favour of the Democrats, meaning that they polled about 2% better than their results on election day. Let's look at other "battleground" states from 2020.
In North Carolina, Trump was up only 0.2% on election day, and he won the state by 1.4%. The polls favoured the Democrats by 1.2%.
In Michigan, Biden was up by 5.1% on election day, and he won the state by 2.8%. The polls favoured the Democrats by 2.3%.
In Wisconsin, Biden was up by 6.7% on election day, and he won by only 0.7%. The polls favoured the Democrats by a whopping 6.0%.
In Georgia, Trump was actually ahead in the polls on election day in 2020 by 0.2%. He lost to Biden in the closest election of any state by 0.3%. This means that, unlike elsewhere in the battleground states, the pre-election polls appear to have actually favoured Trump not Biden.
If Trump has a rationale for his claim that he actually won in 2020, it could be that the outcome in Georgia looks odd. In fact, the result looks like an outlier as it bucked a trend of polling that favoured the Democrats that was apparent throughout the United States.
Trump has constantly maintained that he won Georgia by 200,000 to 300,000 votes. About 5 million people voted there in 2020. The average of 250,000 votes that Trump claims he won over and above the certified result. would be about 5% of that vote. This would be on the outer edge of the polling advantage that the Democrats had in most states in the 2020 election, but Wisconsin illustrates that a 4.5% shift between the polls and the election in favour of Trump in Georgia would not be unheard of.
He lost in 2020, but he is not a stupid man. States other than Georgia are not analyzed here, nonetheless there may be more to Trump that pure malevolence.
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