Wow! Manafort was charged first. I think this means Flynn is already cooperating. Also, in a surprise, Papadopoulos will plead to charges related to misleading the FBI - he was talking to the Russians during the campaign.
Trump is Tweeting like a madman. "No Collusion!"
Well, not yet, as Manafort was charged with "Conspiracy against the United States", and eleven other things, stemming from alleged money laundering and related activities. But Mueller is just getting started.
The Grand Jury had to review and approve these. There is no set up by the "deep state" or the Democrats here.
Yes, Hilary is also a crook...her time will come.
Hold on....
Monday, 30 October 2017
Saturday, 28 October 2017
Charges!!!
This was simple. The formation and use of a Grand Jury in the investigation of the allegations surrounding President Trump and his associates meant, without question, that there would be charges at some point. The news this am is that charges are indeed pending.
At this point, we do not know who will be charged first. This space has argued that it will be Flynn first, followed by Manafort, then Kushner and Trump Jr., and that Trump's presidency could not survive such a turn of events. We shall see.
The Left in the USA will be all "aTwitter" over this news. Keep in mind that Trump is a symptom of a massive disconnect between the American People and the American Establishment - both Right and Left - which clearly includes most journalists in the bought and paid-for American press.
Trump will be gone, but the disconnect will remain. The next US President may see the Left pining for the good ole days of The Donald.
The wild ride is about to begin. Hang on to your hats!
At this point, we do not know who will be charged first. This space has argued that it will be Flynn first, followed by Manafort, then Kushner and Trump Jr., and that Trump's presidency could not survive such a turn of events. We shall see.
The Left in the USA will be all "aTwitter" over this news. Keep in mind that Trump is a symptom of a massive disconnect between the American People and the American Establishment - both Right and Left - which clearly includes most journalists in the bought and paid-for American press.
Trump will be gone, but the disconnect will remain. The next US President may see the Left pining for the good ole days of The Donald.
The wild ride is about to begin. Hang on to your hats!
Sunday, 22 October 2017
Viva Tax Reform!
The GOP has remembered who it is! In spite of deep antipathy for the sitting president, including Senator's Corker epic take-down of the main occupant of the day care, they have passed a budget recommendation this week. This could pave the way for massive tax cuts - maybe $4 to $5 Trillion over a period of a decade. This will of course increase the deficit and debt, adding perhaps $1.5 Trillion to the debt during that time.
Reagan cut taxes saying this reduction in government revenue would grow the economy and increase government revenue over time. When he came into office, the deficit was $79 Billion a year. When he left office, it was $155 Billion a year.
Bush Senior raised taxes slightly, and was destroyed at the ballot box because of it. His successor, Filthy Bill, also raised taxes, and left a substantial surplus to his successor.
Bush Junior oversaw a $350 Billion a year in tax cut to the rich, saying the same thing as Reagan - cut taxes, and the government ends up with more money courtesy of the subsequent economic growth. He started with a surplus of about $125 Billion a year, and ended his time in office leaving a deficit of about $458 Billion.
Here is a thought regarding tax cuts to grow the economy and increase government revenue - maybe this doesn't work?
The problem may not be the theory. Give money to people, they spend it, economic activity increases, and voila - more government revenue! This seems pretty obvious. The problem may not be the theory, but the people implementing the theory - the politicians.
You see, if this works, then new money will start to come into the government's coffers fairly soon after the tax cuts. This is supposed to go to balancing budgets and paying off debt. But it never does. The second politicians see new money, they spend it on their favourite constituents, or their favourite theory of social development, or they pay back the people who supported them, or they just spend to try to buy votes for the next election. No matter what, the spend it all, so that this nice new money is NEVER actually used to render the state solvent.
But it is actually worse.
When the economy starts to grow, it arms politicians to claim that with a higher GDP, it is possible to borrow even MORE money. They then engage in a shameless round of taking money from the future to finance their short-term political ambitions, thereby leaving the state in even more of a mess than when they started.
And so, the problem with the "cut taxes to grow the economy and increase government revenues" may not be the theory, so much ad the people implementing it. With this, its greatest flaw is the simple reality that it does not require any political will to actually balance budgets and pay off debt - this is supposed to just magically happen. Look at the numbers above - it has simply never worked.
We are on the tax cut train again!!! Will Senator's like Corker and Rand Paul succeed in putting limits on the tax cuts, forcing those who would recklessly drive America into penury and woe to match any tax cuts with spending cuts as well, so that there is no increase in the deficit?
We shall see.
Mueller has been interviewing everyone Trump has fired recently.
Reagan cut taxes saying this reduction in government revenue would grow the economy and increase government revenue over time. When he came into office, the deficit was $79 Billion a year. When he left office, it was $155 Billion a year.
Bush Senior raised taxes slightly, and was destroyed at the ballot box because of it. His successor, Filthy Bill, also raised taxes, and left a substantial surplus to his successor.
Bush Junior oversaw a $350 Billion a year in tax cut to the rich, saying the same thing as Reagan - cut taxes, and the government ends up with more money courtesy of the subsequent economic growth. He started with a surplus of about $125 Billion a year, and ended his time in office leaving a deficit of about $458 Billion.
Here is a thought regarding tax cuts to grow the economy and increase government revenue - maybe this doesn't work?
The problem may not be the theory. Give money to people, they spend it, economic activity increases, and voila - more government revenue! This seems pretty obvious. The problem may not be the theory, but the people implementing the theory - the politicians.
You see, if this works, then new money will start to come into the government's coffers fairly soon after the tax cuts. This is supposed to go to balancing budgets and paying off debt. But it never does. The second politicians see new money, they spend it on their favourite constituents, or their favourite theory of social development, or they pay back the people who supported them, or they just spend to try to buy votes for the next election. No matter what, the spend it all, so that this nice new money is NEVER actually used to render the state solvent.
But it is actually worse.
When the economy starts to grow, it arms politicians to claim that with a higher GDP, it is possible to borrow even MORE money. They then engage in a shameless round of taking money from the future to finance their short-term political ambitions, thereby leaving the state in even more of a mess than when they started.
And so, the problem with the "cut taxes to grow the economy and increase government revenues" may not be the theory, so much ad the people implementing it. With this, its greatest flaw is the simple reality that it does not require any political will to actually balance budgets and pay off debt - this is supposed to just magically happen. Look at the numbers above - it has simply never worked.
We are on the tax cut train again!!! Will Senator's like Corker and Rand Paul succeed in putting limits on the tax cuts, forcing those who would recklessly drive America into penury and woe to match any tax cuts with spending cuts as well, so that there is no increase in the deficit?
We shall see.
Mueller has been interviewing everyone Trump has fired recently.
Monday, 9 October 2017
A Real Corker
Well, they may finally be starting to flee the good ship Trump.
Senator Bob Corker mused yesterday about the possibility that President Trump will set the world on the path to World War 3. The interview was conducted with the New York Times - one of the news organizations that Trump has regularly accused of spreading "fake news".
The response was a vicious Twitter tirade from the President. It was the normal stuff we now expect from him - veiled personal insults; questionable recounting of facts; baseless accusations. Corker responded with what may go down as one of the classic Tweets of this disturbing era in US history and politics...
"It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning."
Well sir, there you have it. It was "Game, Set, Match!", and for those who may need a translation of this Tweet, it was a not too subtle "F*&k YOU, Trump!"
This exchange may prove to be a watershed for the future of the Trump Presidency, and the US stock markets. Here is why.
Corker is a Republican Senator. He is not running again, and will see the end of his term in office at the end of next year.
Clearly, Senator Corker has decided that, in spite of the fact that Trump was elected to the most esteemed office in the land if not the world, and in spite of the fact that he is a fellow Republican, he owes Trump absolutely nothing, and he can just let fly all the invective that Republicans have no doubt been privately saying since Day 1 of this man's presidency.
The Republicans barely control the US Senate. Trump needs Corker's vote if he is going to get tax reform done. But Corker has just signalled that he thinks he has nothing to lose from throwing Trump under the very same bus that Trump has decided to throw him under.
And so, tax reform, which is Trump's second signature policy proposal other than the now dead Obamacare repeal, may also be dead. As noted in an earlier blog, the prospect of the Obamacare repeal and tax reform are likely the behind the 25% rise in the markets since Trump came to power. And if these are effectively thought to be dead? Can you say "sell"?
Politics is not about "The Art of the Deal" where you do a one-off deal and move on never to deal with the other side again. Politics is about building relationships - "Winning Friends and Influencing People." This concept appears to be entirely foreign to Trump. Shitting all over people you need to move your agenda forward is borderline insane.
Two failed signature policies + loss of party support + mix in some impending criminal charges against trusted associates = how can this guy's presidency possibly survive?
Friday, 6 October 2017
Grab Bag Friday
The Markets: The S&P 500 is up over 25% since Trump became the President of the United States. The markets have climbed based on two primary considerations - that Obamacare will be revoked, eliminating the embedded taxes on wealthy people that were designed to help fund it; and there will be a tax cut for US corporations, lowering their stated tax rate to 15%, from a stated rate of 35% (it is, effectively, 21% now.)
None of this has happened. None of this is going to happen, as the tax cuts that Trump has proposed have to be off-set by revenue increases from "somewhere". That somewhere, is nowhere. The market will wake up, smell the lack of progress on these issues, and drop back to where it was. Even if something in the way of tax cuts does happen, any increase in the markets has probably already been priced in. This froth simply cannot last.
Trump Investigation: Mueller and his 17 fellow lawyers are working away. Every day we get closer to the start of a cavalcade of charges. Time to start an Impeachment Pool?
Las Vegas: God be with the victims and their families. This is so sad. Having said that, we all know that the next American nightmare is being planned by someone, somewhere, right now. There will be another massacre, and another, and another. Is this about guns, or about something uniquely horrible on the fringes of American culture and society?
The Clintons: There is simply no question that Hillary Clinton will run again. She knows she got more votes, and the fact that she came very close to winning last year will convince her that it can be done. Her book tour is a tune-up for Round Three. Her running mate will be her daughter - "Clinton and Clinton" versus the World.
Wednesday, 20 September 2017
Update - Trump Impeachment Watch
Mueller just hired another lawyer with expertise in money laundering. That makes 17 lawyers on the case, six with expertise in this area.
We have also learned that Manafort was under "wire tap" for years, prior to and during the 2016 presidential campaign. This was issued by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court - the only way that a warrant to initiate surveillance against him could have been issued is if there was evidence to present to the court that there was probable cause that he was compromised by a foreign government.
We have also learned that Manafort was under "wire tap" for years, prior to and during the 2016 presidential campaign. This was issued by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court - the only way that a warrant to initiate surveillance against him could have been issued is if there was evidence to present to the court that there was probable cause that he was compromised by a foreign government.
Point - The FBI will try to get him to turn, giving him immunity in what looks like a money laundering case in return for testimony against Trump and/or associates. People close to Trump will be charged - this is going to happen.
Jon Huntsman, a Republican and Trump's choice for Ambassador to Russia, says that there is no question Russia interfered in the US presidential election is 2016.
Point - With Trump seemingly cosying up to the Democrats on things like the debt ceiling, the Republicans will be more and more willing to throw him under the bus. When asked at his confirmation hearing whether he thought the Russians interfered in the election, Huntsman could have given the standard line - "...this very question is still under investigation, so I'd rather not comment..." secure in the knowledge that the Republican majority will guarantee that he gets the post. Instead, he confirmed - in effect - that Trump's election was tarnished by Russian meddling.
These are quiet days. The storm is coming.
Monday, 11 September 2017
North Korea Strategy
Kim Jong-Un is a madman! He is hell-bent on war!!!
No he isn't.
He is a leader who realizes that his days are numbered - his provocations are primarily designed to force internal unity and forestall a coup, not necessarily to provoke the Americans.
The strategy with this guy is to just wait. He will be gone soon enough. He will be replaced by a military leader with close ties to the Chinese regime.
We want peace? Work with this new leader in such a way as to convince the Chinese that Korea can be unified as a neutral country - a non-threatening business partner with China, rather than a military ally of America - and peace will break out all over the peninsula.
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