Never The Loser...Will Trump Resign?

OMG...and then, out of the blue, there it was...

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/26/253818/253818

The ideal time for him to resign would be Sunday, August 23rd; the day before the Republican Convention starts. Doing this will cause the maximum amount of damage to his party...which has never really ever been "his party".

Circle that date on your calendar.

Treason, In Plain View

He used to be their darling. David Frum is now one of the Republicans', and especially Trump's main pains in the ass...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/most-shocking-thing-about-zelinskys-testimony/613477/

The absurdity of it all may be best exemplified by Michael Flynn.

Flynn will walk away a free man after admitting that he committed a crime, and that with the full benefit of some of the best defence lawyers in the United States. 

His crime was lying to the police - he had the option of saying nothing to the cops - he had a "right to remain silent" - but he chose to talk to the cops, and when he did, he lied through his teeth. Lying to the cops is a crime...everywhere.

He was not set up. He did not stand up in court and say "I'm guilty" in the dead of night, under the threat of physical violence, or flippantly and without the benefit of legal counsel. 

After negotiations with prosecutors, he agreed to and signed a written plea deal in which he agreed to work with the FBI to help uncover the essence of the Trump Campaign's links to Russia. He knew exactly what he was doing, and he had legal advice when he did it.

William Barr, at the insistence of President Trump moved to have Flynn's prosecution stopped - at the sentencing stage! I have literally never heard of this. The legal system has literally never heard of this.

The reason? Because Bill Barr has claimed that Flynn had been entrapped!

What?!

The simple definition of "entrapment" is "tricking someone into committing a crime."

Entrapment occurs when the state sets up a fake crime, and someone takes the bait. For example, when the state offers a two-bit criminal a chance to participate in a drug deal that does not exist, then charges the person with conspiracy to commit the non-existent offence.

How was Flynn tricked into committing a crime when his own lawyers negotiated a plea deal on his behalf that he then agreed to and signed? Where is the "trap" in that? He knew exactly what he was doing when he did it, and had the benefit of legal advice while he did it. 

More than that, the crime was REAL...he committed obstruction of justice, and no one disputes this, not even Barr.

But was he tricked when he first talked to the FBI? Flynn even had lawyers with him when he lied to the cops! The man was literally surrounded by legal counsel at every single stange of his encounters with the criminal justice system. 

If you recall, that he lied to the FBI was so plain and obvious, that he publicly apologized to the Vice President for having mislead even him about his contacts with Russia! 

Flynn lied to EVERYONE! As noted by Frum, this was all in plain sight!

Here is a thought...maybe Flynn could have simply told the truth.

Stone goes to jail to serve his sentence in July. Was he entrapped as well, just like Flynn? Barr has no doubt been instructed by Trump to make sure Stone never serves a single day in jail. 

We are witnessing what may be one of the worst perversions of justice ever in the USA. The "entrapment" that has occurred consists of the millions of people who are willing to believe that this is somehow real, when what is really going on is that a President of the United States is bending the criminal justice system to his political will. Others have done it before, but never so brazenly.

What comes next?

MANA!!! MANA!!! MANA!!!

Trump recently threatened to sue CNN when the published a poll showing that Biden led him by 14% in a poll. Fox published a poll yesterday saying he trailed Biden by 12%.

Will his lawyers send a letter?

Everyone is in the election prediction business now....

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-forecast-predictions/

And the Economist...

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

You don't need to cull through all of this. Basically, if Trump loses Florida, he is doomed.

No doubt, Putin's boys are ramping up the Fake News Facebook ads in that state right now. (Hmmm...did Black Lives Matter plant COVID-19 in the state to frustrate Trump's electoral chances? Did immigrants bring in the virus because Trump's wall with Mexico was not completed?!) 

Oh, there were more than 4,000 new COVID-19 cases in Florida yesterday - the most in one day, ever.

MANA!!! MANA!!! MANA!!!

*Make America Normal Again

Trump, American Il Duce

Trump has threatened to call out the Army to suppress violence in the demonstrations following George Floyd's death. He specifically wants to completely "dominate" persons he has called terrorists to protect the good people of America. He has warned that should governors not act in accordance with his view of how this should be handled, he will order in the US Army against their advice.

The persons advising Trump would no doubt see reason in this approach. The calculus is simple - violent demonstrators hurt peaceful citizens and destroy property...those peaceful persons will want it stopped, and they vote....soldiers can stop it...send them in.  The result should be a bump at the polls, which of course is what this is really all about.

The people Americans normally look to in order to deal with theft and vandalism are the police. Where the violence has been considered extreme, governors have already called up their National Guard to assist. 

So, we have soldiers on the streets of the Good Ole' US of A, some called out by nervous governors, and many more threatened by the President of the United States. When discussion fails and outrage follows, soldiers are apparently the solution.

A simple question....

What if the show of force backfires and the protestors don't go home?

The protests in Hong Kong went on literally for months. There are tens of millions of unemployed Americans now who have nothing to do and nothing to lose. 

Is the United States ready for soldiers in their streets, not for hours, but for months?

I am especially worried about July 4th. 

Will the US military be deployed in the streets across that country to quell demonstrations on a day that is sacred to Americans? 

Soldiers carry AR-15s. Will people be shot on that sacred day? Worse, will the shooters be White and victims be Black?

I watched Trump's speech yesterday. It was very well done...his supporters would have been delighted. But if you watched it, did you catch the cryptic reference to Second Amendment rights?

For Trump's supporters, the Second Amendment encompasses their vision of their relationship with the government and with society itself - they have the right to bear arms, so they have the right to take up arms if they think they need to for political reasons as well as to protect themselves.

Part of society is demonstrating against police racism, and against racism writ large. Trump has recommended absolutely nothing to quell racism, but he wants the army to stop it, and he has also cryptically called out others to act by referring to this right. 

Do you understand that by referring to the Second Amendment in these circumstances the President of the United States has also implicitly called out White vigilantes to help deal with the Black "problem"? - Trump was channelling his inner KKK...

While looting is likely a local phenomena wherever it has been occurring, there are also obviously foreign-inspired agitators behind much of this violence. The violence and the foreign entity - let's call it Russia - aim at dividing the USA. This malignant force is in league with a president who has always seen political gain in division.

A real president would be searching ways to heal his nation. This man can't wait to start counting body bags.

"Democracy is talking itself to death. The people do not know what they want; they do not know what is the best for them. There is too much foolishness, too much lost motion. I have stopped the talk and the nonsense. I am a man of action. Democracy is beautiful in theory; in practice it is a fallacy. You in America will see that some day." - Mussolini

Oh, of course the S & P 500 just keeps moving up and up...one body bag at a time.

Trump Wins!!!....Or Does He??

Professor Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the last nine US presidential elections.  His model is simple - if any six of these questions are seen as False, the sitting president will lose. 

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Let's see if Trump will be re-ected according to this model.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

The Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives - False

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.

There are no serious competitors to Trump, however, some Republicans have organized media campaigns against him which is unprecedented - True/False

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Trump is the president - True 

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

There is no third party or independent challenger of note - True

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

The economy will be in recession - False

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

The growth is above the mean for the two previous terms - True...however, the effects of COVID 19 may mask this entirely...a weaker than normal indicator.  

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

There have been major policy changes - True

8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.

The George Lloyd's murder may result in sustained unrest, but we will not know for months - True

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

The entire administration has been a scandal - impeachment will hurt Trump here - False

10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

The foreign policy pursued by Trump has seen no major failures - True

11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Trump has launched no wars but renewing NAFTA was a major foreign policy success - True

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Trump is a hero to tens of millions/a vagabond to tens of millions - no American president has ever worked so hard to divide his country - True/False

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Biden has charisma - False

The totals...

True - 9
False - 6

Trump will lose the next presidential election, but we are in uncharted waters as we are seeing opposition to an incumbent from within his own party, and the most divisive president in history, and we do not know how these will play out. Both of these indicators are negative for Trump.

Putin's Next Move?

The President of the United States is very likely a Russian stooge. This basic reality is Putin's opportunity, but the President is up for re-election in six months. This means that Putin has that amount of time to move against the Baltic States, which is surely where he will look next as he continues to push back the borders of his country in an attempt to restore the glory days of the USSR.

These countries, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, are NATO allies - they rely almost 100% on the alliance for their protection from Russia. But that alliance is led by a man who benefitted from Russian interference in the last US presidential election, and who meets Putin in private for hours at a time with no debrief provided regarding their conversations. This is totally unprecedented. Putin would be relying on Trump to do nothing of substance should he make a move against the Baltic States soon.

Russia would not out and out invade as there are small NATO forces in these countries and they would not want a face-to-face confrontation that could trigger a wider war.  

The Russian move could take the form of sowing instability in the Eastern ares of these countries, possibly by backing ethnic Russian enclaves, perhaps claiming that these enclaves are suffering from ethnic-based oppression - precisely what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia in the Sudetenland.  

Would NATO soldiers be willing to become internal police forces in these countries, suppressing illegal Russian sedition? If not, then such enclaves would slowly become a fait accomplis as they have in Eastern Ukraine. 

We are about to enter into a very dangerous time in NATO-Russian relations. Trump is not the man for the job.

 
 

V, U, or Hockey Stick?

The world's economies will recover after COVID 19. 

The debate now underway concerns whether there will be a "V" recovery, where we spring right back to where we were prior to the crisis; a "U" recovery where we get back only slowly over time; or a "Hockey Stick" recovery, where we never recover the economic growth that we are losing while we are shut down.

I think we are looking at a mini "V" followed by a "Hockey Stick W", perhaps for decades to come.

The world was on the cusp of a new Great Recession before COVID 19.  The yield curve had inverted in the United States of America three times in nine months last year. Yield curve inversions are followed by recessions an average of nine months after the first inversion, but this can take as long as 18 months.  The economic conditions that were driving this have been subsumed into COVID 19, but they will return after the post-COVID 19 recovery.

For consumers, businesses and governments, there will be a short-term "happy time" starting in about a year - when we get a vaccine and are able to end the crisis and get back to normal, but "normal" was an impending recession. 

When growth stumbles after this short-term sprint back to growth, we will see economies decline worldwide under the weight of debt that is simply unsustainable for hundreds of millions of people and many countries and sub-national governments (...hello Ontario.) Economic growth will then stumble, slowly wavering up and down until we bite the bullet and arrange for debt refinancings and defaults on a worldwide basis that clears the way for a new era in economic growth.

The key question going forward is not whether we will grow - we won't until we deal with debt. The key issue will be who will take the hit in world-wide debt defaults? More precisely, will private lenders - international financial institutions and the wealthiest 1% - get to convert the bad loans that they have made to nations throughout the world to public debt, and leave the public holding the bag when this mass of debt is written off? 

Not only is this the key economic issue, it is also the key political issue of the next twenty years, and it gets to the bigger question of who actually runs the world and for whom is the world run?