Special Investigator Redux

There is a memo out there that is probably going to rock the world. It likely outlines the rationale behind the FISA (Foreign Intelligence Services Act) court approving a series of surveillance activities against Trump and his associated in 2016, in the run up to the 2016 presidential election. 

As noted previously in this blog, Trump et al actually were “wiretapped” by Obama’s government during the last presidential campaign – that certain persons like Manafort were “wiretapped” has been known for months now.  

The denial by Obama that Trump was being “wiretapped” was pure semantics – Trump claimed he was “wiretapped”, but no one “wiretaps” anymore, so when Obama denied this he was essentially denying an incorrect usage, not the act itself. And so, I think we are about to confirm that United States Government did have a presidential candidate under surveillance, and Obama was basically lying through his teeth in denying it.

The immediate problem with the information in the memo, and the rationale for the “wiretap” was that it was based on a dossier that not only is full of outright lies and distortions, but it was paid for by the Clinton Campaign and/or the Democratic National Committee. The court acted under false pretenses. 

What is the larger problem here?

If the information in the soon to be released memo is accurate, then a political campaign sponsored the creation of falsehoods in order to have the state go after a political opponent as part of an effort to win a political campaign. As we are talking about essentially stealing a presidential election, this would be a Conspiracy Against the United States of America – the same thing with which Manafort and Gates have been charged.

Using the state against your political opponents is right out of Putin’s playbook…and Mugabe’s…and the playbook of the Commies in China, and everywhere you find democratic governance sacrificed to the alter of political shenanigans, tyranny and the creation of “alternate truths”. 

The implications of this are grave for the Mueller investigation, as it suggest that the initial impetus for the investigation, namely the collusion allegation, may have been wrapped up in a pack of artfully crafted lies. There are still buckets of evidence tying Trump et al to the Russians, not the least of which is the fact that Manafort, Trump Jr, and Kushner did actually attend at a meeting with someone who they thought represented the Russian state for the purpose of working with that state through the receipt of damaging information to subvert a US presidential election. We know that Kushner actually had four meeting with Russians, not one. As well, there have already been two convictions of persons who lied about their contacts with the Russians as part of the Trump team – they clearly thought they had done something wrong, and their guilty minds led to their later convictions. 

This all suggest that there is more than enough to move forward with the Mueller investigation, but politics is about to interfere. Once the FISA memo is released, that investigation may collapse under the weight of indignation stemming from what may an historic manipulation of the US political process, easily rivaling Watergate.

What to do?

It is time for a second Special Prosecutor with broad powers to investigate not only the question of this dossier – including the activities of officials in the Obama administration - but all matters stemming from the Wiki Leaks disclosures in 2016, especially the activities of the Clinton Foundation, and Clinton’s use of an illegal internet server while she was Secretary of State. This person needs to carefully vet any FBI personnel for previous political comments and leanings, making sure that only persons who have maintained a neutral stance throughout may work on this matter.

On that, it has been revealed lately that numerous FBI operatives were engaged in e-mail discussions about the last presidential election where they expressed opposition to Trump, and/or favouritism to Clinton. Many very competent people engaged in this behavior. 

The FBI cannot survive as an institution of law enforcement if it is even lightly touched by the hint of political preference. These people – all of them – need to be walked to the door, basically now.

Trump Impeachment Update

They will interview Trump! Apparently, Mueller’s team, and maybe Mueller himself will interview Trump as part of the investigation into Russian influence in the last presidential election.

As has been noted in this space, the FBI is working hard to get all the lies on record, for follow-up with Obstruction of Justice charges when the bubble bursts and the rats start to sign like canaries. It is a well-worked scrip that has already netted them Papadopoulos and Flynn.  Nowhere is the arrogance that infects the White House more blatant and obvious that that in the person of Donald Trump. He lies shamelessly and endlessly, to a point where it seems that he may not actually be capable to telling truth from lies, or he doesn’t care, or he uses lies to rally his tribe, as was noted in the blog “The New American Prince and the Necessity of Lying.”

But you can’t lie to the FBI. You can refuse to answer questions courtesy of the fifth amendment, but if you do speak to them, you cannot lie. That is, and always has been, Obstruction of Justice.

Of course, if Trump is interviewed in person, he will lie. His only chance of avoiding being set up for an Obstruction of Justice charge is to ask that the questions come in writing, to be answered by his own lawyers – but I suspect he is to arrogant and narcissistic to allow for such a turn of events. 

Here are the lies that I suspect he will tell, confident that the cavalcade of make belief that is his White House will never crack thereby exposing the endless lies and prompting the downfall of the entire rotten edifice, especially the Liar in Chief.

He will tell the FBI that he had no knowledge of the June, 2016 meeting between Trump Jr., Kushner and Manafort, and purported representatives of the Russian government. Apparently his entourage had multiple meetings with the Russians, especially Kushner – he will also deny any knowledge of any of these.

He will deny that he had any knowledge of Papodopoulos’s contacts with the Russians shortly after he was hired by the campaign in the spring of 2016.

He will tell the FBI that he had no foreknowledge of the impending Wiki Leaks disclosure of Clinton-related e-mails, including the suspicion that the Russians were the source of these e-mails. 

He will tell the FBI that he had no knowledge of, nor did he direct, Flynn’s contacts with the Russians that occurred shortly after he won the presidency.

He will tell the FBI that he had no knowledge that Flynn may have engaged in illegal activities via his contacts with the Russians before very subtly asking Comey to drop any investigations of him. One of his own Tweets suggested that this is not true. His lawyers quickly took the fall for that Tweet, thereby saving Trump from having essentially confessed to Obstruction of Justice. (Note – if Trump knew that Flynn may have committed criminal acts BEFORE he asked Comey to drop the case, this would have, in itself, been a crime.)

He will deny that he has ever had, nor does he now have, any business dealings with Russians, especially those with ties to Putin.

He will deny any knowledge that his son-in-law and others may have been involved in business dealings with Russians, the purpose of which was to launder ill-gotten gains purloined from the Russian treasury.

He will deny that he has received any benefits from foreign sources of any kind while he has been President, including no net gains to his businesses. (The President of the United States is constitutionally-barred from receiving gifts from foreigners.)

He will deny common understandings of all of the lies and distortions that he has uttered since signaling that he will stand for office in 2016. If I were on Mueller’s team, I would recommend that the examination start with a review of his lies, lie after lie after lie, to put him on the spot, make him uncomfortable, and essentially invite him to repeat his lies.

I suspect that there is a series of e-mails out there that indicate that all of this is completely false. 

As I have noted in other blogs, I expect Trump to be impeached. The basis of this may be more than the fact that I think his son and son-in-law will be charged with Conspiracy Against the United States based on their illicit meeting with purported representatives of the Russian Government in June 2016, the expressed purpose of which was allowing that foreign government to influence a US presidential election. 

I now think that this man is so arrogant that he actually thinks he can outfox the FBI, and he will allow himself to be interviewed loudly maintaining that last bastion of “truthiness”….”I cannot tell a lie, and I have nothing to hide.” His lies will prompt an Obstruction of Justice charge that will be impossible to refute by even his most die-hard supporters in the corrupt US Press Establishment.

The irony is thick here. As I have noted in other blogs, I think he had to lie to get elected - they all do. And it will be, in part, because of his lies that he will be shown the door.

Bannon refused to answer any questions about Russia when he appeared before the Congressional committee probing links to Russia. Of course he did. Bannon understands the game very well indeed. Recall, he called the meeting with the Russians "treasonous" and wondered why they did not just call the police when they were contacted by the Russians. Exactly.

The American Economy in 2030

The US Congress has agreed to massive new tax cuts for American corporations and rich people. The theory is that giving tax cuts to rich people and corporations drives new investment that creates jobs and sparks new economic growth. The USA, under the influence of the Reagan Republicans in various iterations, has been implementing this theory for about 35 years now.

The USA has also been borrowing money at the fastest rate ever, outside of a major war. Recently, it has settled on borrowing of about half-a-trillion dollars a year.  The basic idea is that borrowing and spending sparks economic growth and creates jobs, by releasing the "animal spirits". The USA is now over $20 Trillion in debt. Think Keynes, run amok.

Finally, the USA has been stripping away many unionization and other workers protections and supports in the name of increased productivity and rendering jurisdictions "business friendly", often at the state level.

How have these theories and policies worked out, and what may we reasonably expect of some key aspects of the American economy should the USA continue on this path to 2030?

Real Income: American workers now earn basically what the earned shortly after Reagan started the "give money to the rich and everyone will benefit", trickle-down tax cut theory in the 1980s. Since the mid-1960's, median income in the USA, accounting for inflation is only up 21%. There has been very little comparative gain for the vast majority of Americans since the early 1990s. The rich, defined as the top 5% of income earners, now control more than 62% of the income in that country - the USA is not a middle class country, and has not been a middle class country for some time now.

See the inflation adjusted chart here.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/09/19/u-s-household-incomes-a-50-year-perspective

In 30 years, one would expect that the wealthy in the USA, defined as the top 5% of income earners, will control upwards of 70% of all income.

Employment: The official unemployment rate in the USA is 4.1%. This rate is U3 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note that U3 only counts people who have been unemployed for three weeks or less – if you have been unemployed for three weeks and one day, you are not counted. The rate is therefore exceptionally misleading as a description of the actual unemployment situation in the USA.

The measure of U6 covers persons who are unemployed or underemployed (i.e. working part-time, but want a full time job) over a time frame of a full year.  This rate is just over 8%, which, from an historic perspective is actually pretty good. This is the rate that Janet Yellen looks at into help guide the policy of the US Federal Reserve Board.

The measure of U6 only covers a period of one year. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics does not track persons who are unemployed beyond one year, and has not done so since 1994. In short, the USA does not officially track the actual level of unemployment in that country, loosely defined as the percentage of the workforce that is either unemployed, or underemployed, and who would normally be seeking work.  

This rate is tracked by organizations like Shadow Stats, which seeks to apply the pre-1994 definition of unemployment, which looked at unemployed people (“long term discouraged workers”) who had been out of work for more than a year. According to Shadow Stats, the actual unemployment rate in the USA was about 15% in 1995, and is over 21% now using the measure of unemployment that was used prior to 1994. Very roughly, this is an increase in the actual unemployment rate of about 0.25% a year.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

While this may seem preposterous to some, the fact is that there are about 41 million Americans living on food stamps right now – this total was 16 million people in 2000, and 28 million in 2008, and is therefore rising by about 1.5 million people a year. These people are not working - it is as if every new citizen in the USA in the last 15 years or so has gone straight onto the rolls of those who are receiving food stamps. This is about 12.6% of the American population – one in eight people live in abject poverty in the USA. 

We also know that there are about 10 million able-bodied men in the USA – ages 18 – 54 – who are also not working. It should be obvious that it is impossible for the actual unemployment rate to be 4.1% when there are ten million unemployed men in that country, and 12.6% of the population lives on food stamps. 

If these trends continue, both for the unemployment rate and the number of people on food stamps, then by 2030 the USA should have about 60 million people, or about one in six Americans living on food stamps, and a real unemployment rate of about 25 – 26%.    

Labour Force Participation: In 2000, 70.1% of able-bodied Americans were in the workforce.  Today, that number is about 62.8%. With a workforce of about 155 million people, a drop of about 7.3% in labour force participation represents about 10 million fewer people actually working in the USA, with a drop of about 550,000 working people a year.   

The normal explanation for this phenomena is the fact that the Baby Boomers are retiring in droves, therefore there should be fewer people working.  The problem with this is the fact that, according to the St Louis Federal Reserve Board research, the only section of the US population to show a percentage growth in their membership in the US work force are people over 55 years of age.  Fewer and fewer people younger are actually working, as a proportion of the group.  So while the number of Baby Boomers entering retiring age is rising, so is the percentage of that population that is actually working.  This is not supposed to be happening, and it strongly implies that many Baby Boomers are not retiring, likely because they can’t afford to, and because they are actually working more as a proportion of their group, they are crowding out employment opportunities of younger persons.    

If this trend continues, by 2030 the USA should have an effective workforce of about 7 million fewer people, and a Labour Force Participation rate of about 58%. The Baby Boom generation will be severely limiting future prospects for young and middle aged people as it continues to work, given that they do not have enough to live on in retirement.  This could easily become the focal point for very damaging intergenerational economic, social and political strife.

US Government Debt:  This is simple. A wonderful site called “US Debt Clock” actually calculates US debt, both present and future, on a real time basis. It is simple to extrapolate where we will be in 2030.

As of today, with a deficit of about $725 Billion a year, and a debt of about $20.6 Trillion, the estimated US National Debt in 2030 will be about $29.3 Trillion. The yearly interest payments on this debt could easily top $800 Billion a year, and over 12% of the budget.  

Two or even Three Americas?: The USA appears to be doing very well economically at the moment. House prices have been rising for years, the stock markets are at historic highs, business profits are way up, and the unemployment rate for the America that actually counts is very low.   

The top 5% of income earners essentially own that country now. The next 30% of income earners is doing well enough, but the bottom 75%, and especially the bottom 40%, of the people in that country are suffering, and they are poised to suffer far more. They essentially count for next to nothing, and are not even included in some important statistics anymore. It is as if they are part of a different country.

The social, cultural and especially political implications of income inequality like this are profound. It may be that the only way the rich can keep the gains from 35 years of acquisitive tax policy on the part of their bought and paid for servants in the US Congress is to keep people from voting, because it should be obvious that almost no country on Earth will be more primed for a socialist revolt that the USA by 2030. 

The Sanderistas beckon.

Trump is Right on North Korea

North Korea has been trying to develop nuclear weapons since at least 1963, when the Soviet Union was asked to help them develop the bomb, and the Russians declined. Instead, they helped North Korea develop nuclear power for civil use. Much like India, once North Korea obtained nuclear know-how, they began to convert it to military purposes.

Their first reactor was operational in 1965, courtesy of Russian expertise. They started to develop their own civil reactor in the late 1970's, and a nuclear bomb development program in earnest in the early 1980's. 

In 1993, North Korea announced that it would leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The North Koreans had ratified this treaty in 1985, but the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors the treaty, reported non-compliance with a required safeguards agreement and a refusal to consent to specific inspections to the UN Security Council in 1993. The North Koreans announced their withdrawal from the treaty shortly thereafter, but backed off when the United States undertook to supply two light water nuclear reactors in return for North Korea suspending its nuclear weapons program (Undertaking 1).

This agreement collapsed in 2002, and about this time Pakistan admitted that North Korea had been given access to its nuclear weapons program technology. North Korea itself later admitted that it was not in compliance with the agreement it had made in 1993 to suspend its nuclear program.

In 2005, North Korea again withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In 2005, North Korea stated that it now had such weapons, but it again undertook to shut down its program (Undertaking II). It exploded its first nuclear weapon in 2006, confirming this in January, 2007.

Later in 2007, North Korea undertook to close its nuclear program as a part of a six nation agreement (Undertaking III). The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that it had shut down one of its reactors, and it started to receive aid thereafter. This agreement ended when North Korea launched a satellite in 2009, with the obvious implication that it had continued to work on missile technology. North Korea conducted a second nuclear test in May, 2009.

In February 2012, North Korea undertook to suspend Uranium enrichment and to suspect any more tests while negotiations with he United States continued. This included a moratorium on long-range missile tests (Undertaking IV). In return for this, North Korea was to get food shipments and negotiations to normalize relations. North Korea conducted a missile test in April of that year, and that agreement ended as well.

North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2013 and two in 2016. In February, 2016, North Korea claimed to have put a satellite in orbit. 

In 2017, North Korea launched two ICBMs, the second of which could theoretically have reached the United States. North Korea also conducted another nuclear test, this time claiming that they have a hydrogen bomb.

The world has imposed sanctions, and is scrambling to get North Korea to the negotiating table in an effort to coerce or incite it to end a program that has been underway for about 40 years, where they have breached four previous undertakings to suspend this same program. North Korea has reopened a phone link with South Korea and has started talks again, perhaps related to joint participation at the Olympics. There is no hint that they intend to stop any nuclear-arms related activities.

As the old saying goes, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, shame on me."

This country, which operates like a Medieval Stalinist Monarchy, and which is in breach of about every single norm of basic human rights known to humankind, cannot be trusted to keep any agreement related to nuclear weapons. It sees the future of the regime, and the development of a nuclear-tipped ICBM capable of threatening this continental USA, as inexorably linked. If recent history is a guide, there is no way they will stop this activity no matter what agreement they sign.

So, what if the world just lets them continue, which is what negotiating an agreement actually means? 

Is the world ready for ten years from now, when North Korea will presumably have 20 - 50 ICBMs each armed with with nuclear weapons, which is surely what they intend to develop?

And, is the world ready for rogue states to acquire ICBM technology and actual missiles from North Korea, and maybe nuclear weapons as well, given that they already sell all the missiles they can to all comers to generate hard currency for their moribund economy?

And what about other countries? Will South Korea and Japan sit back idle while North Korea develops the ability to wipe them off planet earth? Is it not obvious that they will eventually look to "self help" in the form of their own nuclear programs?

If North Korea is permitted to continue on the road to nuclear proliferation, the future is very bleak indeed. Again, diplomacy will not work here - they do not abide by their undertakings.

But North Korea's ultimate target is the USA. No US President can allow this future to develop.

What to do?

As Trump has done, the USA must take a VERY firm stance with North Korea. 

It should be made clear that, should a North Korean ICBM test land off the continental USA, the Americans will have to make a military response - perhaps destroy North Korea's navy and air force to send the signal that they stand no chance in a conventional war, and impose a complete embargo - nothing in, and nothing out.  This could cause the North Korean military to act, overthrowing the present regime, and seeking real negotiations. If not, then at the very least it may change the calculus in Kim Jong Un's mind - the path of nuclear proliferation is not perpetual power, but the same future as that of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gadaffi. 

This entails a massive risk to South Korea and to Seoul in particular, which is in artillery range of North Korea. The fact is that these guns have been pointed at Seoul for fifty plus years. This confrontation will come now, or only after North Korea has perfected a nuclear armed ICBM. I can't see how this risk can be avoided. Yes, this is a horrible situation.

Fearless Predictions, 2018!!

Fearless Predictions 2018!

Having missed on just about every prediction for 2017, it is time to try, try again!

Sports:

Baseball: The Blue Jays win the World Series, beating the Chicago Cubs in 6. 

Note - this is conditional on the Blue Jays keeping Donaldson; trading TU-Low and Martin; and hiring Arrieta, and Navarro. They also need average help in the outfield and infield. 

Hockey: Hell freezes over and the Toronto Maple Leafs win the first of three consecutive Stanley Cups. They will beat LA Kings, who will surge in the second half of the season. People from Toronto become insufferable.

Basketball: The Toronto Raptors will make the playoffs, will win the East, but will lose to the Warriors in the NBA Championship.

NFL Football: Pittsburgh Steelers! 

CFL Football: Calgary Stampeders, beating the RedBlacks.

MLS: TFC.

Olympic Hockey: Canada will win with its Spengler Cup team.

Politics:

Ontario: Progressive Conservative minority government; NDP in Opposition; Wynne on board of directors of Ontario Hydro.

BC: Minority government will fall, leading to an NDP majority. Electoral reform referendum will fail.

US Congressional Elections: Democrats barely take the Senate (51 Dem/47 Rep/2 Ind), but not the House of Representatives. Candidates from neither the Republicans or Democrats will do better than at any time since before the Civil War. 

Pre-Prediction!!! - The 2020 Presidential campaign will be a real four way race. 1. Traditional Republican; 2. Tea Party Wingnut; 3. Clinton Democrat (who will be Clinton herself running for the female vote with her daughter); and, 4. Sanders Socialist. The Sanders Socialist will win as the Millennials show up in droves to overturn the five-decade rule of the Boomer Generation.

Trump: Impeached by Congress in Spring, 2018 – before the Congressional Elections - after his son and son-in-law are charged with Conspiracy against the USA.

Putin: Will be re-elected...again and again.

Economics:

Interest Rates: Will be increased 2 x in USA and Canada. As a direct result…

Housing: Toronto prices down 15%; Canada prices down 10%, by June, 2018. 

Markets: Will experience a steep 20% drop in first three months, followed by a partial recovery for the rest of the year. Will end the year down 10%. 

Gold: Will hit $1,400 an ounce by June 1, 2018, and end the year well above $1,300.  

Note - The bubble that has moved from Japanese real estate in the 1980s; to the Asian economies by the mid-1990s; to the IT sector in the late 1990s; to US housing, housing markets elsewhere, and equity markets in the mid 2000's; and now into just about everything courtesy of the lowest interest rates in human history, will finally start to move to Gold.

Bitcoin: Will collapse as nation states assert that it is a haven for criminals, and shut down exchanges/outlaw its use. Reality - there is no way that the world's central banks will allow a competitor like this to survive, unless they control it.

Europe: Will be rocked by anti-austerity/labour market reform demonstrations in Greece, Spain and France. Greece will default, triggering a crisis that will see it prepare to leave the Eurozone. Spain will endure a second independence declaration by the Catalans. Brexit will be reversed following a new referendum in the UK after the minority Conservative Government falls. In spite of all this, Europe will continue to be a bastion of sanity and civility.

NAFTA: The US President will threaten, but back away from a pledge to cancel the trade agreement. The negotiations will go on...and on...and on.

World:

Syria: Will be at peace via an accord brokered by Russia and Iran. Up to 200,000 Syrians will head home from Europe. The West will swallow its pride, and participate in a rebuilding plan.

North Korea: Kim Jong-Un and his family will be assassinated in a military coup when a North Korean missile lands near Los Angeles, and the USA begins targeted airstrikes in retaliation. Peace talks will follow, aimed at unifying the Korean peninsula.

Saudi Arabia: Will experience an attempted coup by hardliners. It will fail, and many of these people will be exposed as ISIS sympathizers and financiers....

ISIS: Will launch a coordinated attack on cities throughout the world at same time and day to demonstrate that it is still very much alive – an ISIS version of the Tet Offensive. It will decline rapidly after this.

China: Will be rocked by demonstrations nation-wide as housing prices and stock markets there start to collapse, threatening the deal that the Communists have made with the people of that country - wealth in return for political subservience. The resulting repression will shock the world.

Culture:

Music: Punk!

2017 Predictions - Revisited

Below is a review of the fearless predictions for 2017....how did things work out? Let's just say that I was off a tad....a big tad!  

Hello!  Welcome to 2017!

Happy Birthday Canada!  You are 150 this year!

And Happy Birthday to Finland - celebrating 100 years of independence from Mother Russia!

Here are the predictions for this year...

Sports:

Chicago's Heyday returns...

Baseball - The Chicago Cubs will repeat as World Champions; the Toronto Blue Jays miss playoffs by 3 games. The post-AA Jays management will keep stocking the farm system in preparation for another generation of mediocrity.

Wrong - Houston reigned supreme.

Hockey - The Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens make the playoffs. The Canadiens go the farthest, eliminated in the semi-finals.  The Chicago Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup.

Mixed - They all made the playoffs, but the Sens went the farthest, and Pittsburgh won.

CFL - The Calgary Stampeders will win the Grey Cup.

Wrong - Hell froze over again, it was the Argos! (Although Calgary made it to the final...)

Super Bowl - The NY Giants will win the Super Bowl, 35 - 21 over the New England Patriots, proving Eli Manning is not a fluke.

Wrong - It was the Patriots again.  And Manning is "questionable".

NBA - The Cleveland Cavaliers will repeat, but the Toronto Raptors will push them to 7 games this time, with four of those games going into overtime. LeBron James will say in later years that this year's Raptors team was the toughest team he ever played against.

Wrong - It was the Warriors beating Cleveland, who walked over Toronto in four games to get there.

National Politics:

Ontario - Premier Kathleen Wynne will be dumped by her party by the Spring.  Hydro rates will rise in celebration.

Wrong - The misgoverning of Ontario continues! 

Canada - Expect a Constitutional Crisis as the new Senate asserts a role beyond the traditional and conventional "sober second thought" role, prompting a suspension of all appointments, and a strong push to abolish the Senate as soon as possible led by Premier Wall in Saskatchewan.

Wrong - The house of sober second thought has mostly behaved...for now!

International Politics:

This will be the year that peace broke out....

Syria - A viable plan for ending the civil war, including a plan to rebuild the country and the return of millions of refugees, will be agreed to and will take hold - sponsored by Putin, Trump, Merkel, and Erdogan. They will jointly win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Wrong - a peace agreement is closer than ever, but not in 2017, and the West is not part of it.

China - Will spark a military confrontation with Japan in the South China Sea as a way to push the USA out of the region, and to deflect internal dissension. The result will be a short, sharp air war that the Japanese will win easily.  The new UN Secretary General will launch a multi-country dialogue - China, Vietnam, Japan, The Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan - that will result in a resource-sharing and environmental protection agreement for the South China Sea, effectively diffusing this powder keg.

Wrong - This powder keg continues to simmer.

Ukraine/Crimea - Trump will broker a deal that recognizes the Russian occupation of Crimea, with compensation to be paid by Russia to Ukraine, and a mutual undertaking on the part of Russia to leave Ukraine alone as long as it never joins NATO. Tensions in Europe will ease.

Wrong - Trump at least supports NATO now!

Africa - The new Secretary General will push for and get an international undertaking to focus on peace in Africa.  The result will be substantial new commitments to peace keeping forces through the continent, especially in Mali, the Congo and Nigeria.

Wrong - Not much positive to comment on here.

North Korea - Kim Jong-un will be assassinated by the military, supported by China which is getting very concerned about the nuclear weapons program of North Korea and the increasingly irrational behaviour of that country's leader. The military will immediately declare a state of Martial Law, after which it will enter into negotiations with South Korea to unify the Korean peninsula. People will freely cross the DMZ by the end of the year. Korea will be unified by the end of 2018.

Wrong - Um, not even close!

USA! USA! USA!: 

Trump's First Year - Expect a massive split between Trump and the Republican Congress, seeing Trump seek and obtain allies among the Democrats to keep most of Obamacare intact while revamping the tax code so as to tax the wealthy more, transferring tax cuts to the middle class and poor. Trump will also refuse to sign any legislation until congress agrees to term limits and campaign financing reform - millions of Americans will take to the streets to support him, and the Congress - both the Republicans and Democrats - will fold. He will launch more vigorous reviews of refugees, but nothing like a ban on all Muslims; he will expel illegal immigrant criminals from the USA, while hinting at a possible path to normalization short of citizenship, both of which will totally confound his critics. His approval rating will hit 75%.

Wrong - Um, no.

Canadian Economy:

Housing - Expect the bubble to start to implode. It will start with a very slow drop in housing prices, 3% this year nationally. With interest rates at historic lows, the B of C will drop them even more to try to keep the bubble afloat. It will fail...the big implosion comes next year, and will see a 50% drop in prices in Vancouver, and 40% in Toronto with a national decline of 10%.

OMG!  Right! - Prices are down the last three straight months, down 2.34% Canada-wide. 

Growth - Canada will enter into recession again as the world's economy slows, specifically Europe and China.

Wrong - Growing, still, just about everywhere.

Deficit - All provincial governments and the federal government will run larger than anticipated deficits. Ontario - the most indebted sub-national government on Earth - will need a cash infusion from Ottawa. The year 2018 will see the start of a decade of significant austerity that makes what happened under Harper look mild.

Wrong - Deficits are lower than predicted.

Banks - The main Canadian banks will go from the world's darlings during the last recession, to being seen as a very significant risk. Expect 20% declines in share prices.

Wrong - They have peaked.

Stocks/Investments:  

Have you been reading my other recent posts?

S&P 500 - Expect 3% rise, then a 20% decline below 1,700 by the fall.

DOW - Expect a 3% rise, then a 25% decline below 15,000 by the fall.

Europe - Expect no rise, then a 35% decline by the fall.

Canada - Expect a 1% rise, then a 30% decline to below 11,000 by the fall.

Wrong - The era of free money continues to prime the pump.

This year could hearken an era of zero stock market price growth similar to what has afflicted Japan for 25 years as politicians worldwide lack the guts to deal with the need to deleverage economies from fiscal and monetary stimulus. The problem with addictive drugs is that they eventually stop working, and you need them just to feel normal...welcome to the stimulus addicted normal.

World Economies:

In general, recessions worldwide. They will be far worse in Europe. This is the year that the stimulus stopped working.

Wrong - The stimulus continues to prime the pump.

China:

Changes in this country will rock the world...

Economy - A significant recession will hit, leading to...

Stock and Housing Markets - A collapse of the housing and stock markets, leading to massive losses on the part of small investors, leading to...

Military Aggression - A military adventure against Japan in the South China Sea to deflect internal dissension (see above), leading to...

Purge - The purge of hard-core Communists by President Xi Jinping will continue and pick up steam, including revelations that these people orchestrated a mass harvesting of human organs from Falun Gong members with the subsequent killing of hundreds of thousands of these people, leading to...

Democracy - The establishment of an independent commission to recommend a path forward for China to move to a democratic form of government.

WOW!

Wrong - The Communist Party continues to reign unimpeded.

Popular Culture:

One word.....DISCO!




Right - It never died!

The End of Trump Neutrality?

We are about to see the end of Net Neutrality, and that could be very bad for Donald Trump.

On this Wednesday, I think it is a given that the Federal  Communications Commission in the USA will allow internet service providers to discriminate between customers, offering different packages for different levels of services. This practice is illegal now as the internet is regulated like a public utility – e.g. think water. If you offer water for sale, you must offer the same water to everyone in your area at the same price.

After Wednesday, this utility status will almost 100% be over for internet services. I say this because I am fairly certain that the wealthy corporations that own internet services in the USA, and who have no doubt bought every single politician who can possibly influence the FCC decision, will have made sure to arrange to get the decision they want.

As with medical care, Americans are about to get gouged to the bone for internet services as well. The main lies that will be told to justify this will be that this will enable competition  - internet services are mainly monopolies in the USA now now; and the development of new programming and content - in a country with the most prolific program development on planet earth.

This means that the price of the internet will be rising dramatically throughout the USA. Again, this could be very bad for Donald Trump.

So far, nothing has stuck to President Trump.

Not his shameless lies – too numerous to count.

Not his use of Twitter to engage in banter that reduces his office to something like the level of a playground spat between five year olds.

Not his history of shameless treatment of women - even in the midst of what may be a cultural revolution regarding how women are treated by people in power.

Not an ever-increasing list of charges related to dealings with Russia by his Trump election-team associates – even when the US intelligence services have confirmed, and he has agreed, that Russia tried to subvert that last US presidential election.

Not his relentless failure to move on the marquee aspects of his electoral agenda ahead – no repeal of Obamacare; no 45% tariff on China or declaration that China is a currency manipulator; no balanced federal budget or any chance of the debt being paid; no economic growth of 4% a year; no new border wall that Mexico will pay for; no tax reform giving families of two a 35% tax cut; no lowering the business tax rate to 15% (it will likely be 20%.)

Not his cavalier foreign policy that threatens peace on earth – including: baiting the madman in North Korea; recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in an obvious attempt to divert attention from the Mueller probe; and, tepid support for NATO in the face of an increasingly aggressive Russia.

Trump’s success to date has come down to his fabulous talent for unifying his tribe – the Trump Republicans – and his useful allies in the press. This may be about to end.

None of the issues noted above actually hits home with his supporters. They likely don’t care about things like the recognition of Jerusalem, and they will give him a pass on anything that requires Congressional approval, like tax reform.

But they may not give him a pass when they have to pay 100% more for internet access that is actually worse than what they have now, which is a very real scenario after Net Neutrality disappears on Wednesday.

All politics is local, and the primary consideration for all voters is their pocketbook. Issues that speak to billions and trillion of dollars, like the corporate tax give-away that is making its way through the Congress, are too remote for most voters to grasp or care about. But raising the price of internet access even by $20 a month will strike home with everyone, everywhere in that country, including Trump’s base. Unlike the issues above, he will be blamed, personally.

It is worth noting that only about 75% of Americans are using the internet – placing the USA 34th in the world in terms of internet usage. I would think that this absolutely disgraceful level of internet usage is to be expected in a country where one in eight people live on food stamps, and likely can’t afford any internet access at all. How many people will be losing their access in coming years and months as American corporate providers squeeze the citizens of that country for all they are worth?