Trump Fraud Case - Update

The editorial team here at mewetree.blogspot.com previously questioned the validity of the civil fraud case against Trump in this post...

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2024/02/trumps-fraudulent-fraud-conviction.html

That blog post ended with this prediction...

"This entire charade will be thrown out on appeal, much to the chagrin of Trump haters everywhere."

The Trump civil fraud case has made it to the New York Court of Appeals. Here is how that appeal is faring...

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/26/trump-civil-fraud-appeal-oral-arguments-00181339

The appeals court has questioned how this law, which is a consumer protection law, applies to private business transactions between equally sophisticated parties, where there were no losses on the part of either party - a.k.a. no victims.  

The judges asked if the District Attorney - who ran for office on a promise to go after Donald Trump, personally - had overstepped the intent and scope of the law being applied.

Judges who think this case was kosher wouldn't ask questions like this.

If they throw this fraud case out, and they do it before the election in November, doing so will validate Trump's claim that they judicial system has been set against him. 

Which, of course, is the case.

 

Fake Polls

We need to chat about polls. See here...

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

The latest polls for Pennsylvania show a slight Harris lead. But look more closely.

Of the last eight polls up until the Bloomberg poll yesterday, five showed that Harris and Trump were tied, two had Trump ahead by 1% or 2%, and one poll had Harris ahead by 2%.

The Bloomberg poll has Harris ahead by 5%. Real Clear Politics averages the results of polls so a poll result like this skews the results in favour of Harris.

Harris does not have a 5% lead in Pennsylvania. As noted in previous blogs, the editorial team here at mewetree.blogspot.com thinks she will win the state by under 0.5%. But it will not be a landslide, as is suggested by this Bloomberg poll.

So how did this poll come about?

Pollsters will skew results by polling people who they know will favour their own favored candidate. This can be done by polling people in geographic areas known to support the pollster's favourite candidate, or by having less balance to the demographic spread than is optimal, and polling demographic groups that are known to favour their favourite. Finally, when they see results that do not support their preferred line, they simply don't publish the polls. If you see large gaps in polls released by a pollster with particular political leanings, you can rest assured that this is because they haven't been able to generate results that suit their candidate or party.

In short, pollsters actually know who likely favours whom in terms of voting preferences and where those people live, so to skew a poll they just make sure to ask those who they know will give them the answers that they want.

To see how easy it is to fake a public opinion poll, see here - this is the classic explanation...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahgjEjJkZks

The key is this, "...so they don't mention the first five questions, and they publish the last one..."

It's not a matter of "Trust no none!", but it might be a matter of "When things look out of the ordinary and/or look illogical, they are usually just so."

Internet Technology Follies

I have been thinking of doing THIS THING since the start of COVID-19 pandemic.

What is THIS THING that I want to do?

I want to track how utterly incompetent IT actually is. How often it actually fails. How utterly idiotic are many of its security requirements. How many of the "cures" for IT issues are comparable "chicken noodle soup" remedies passed on by our grandmothers. How it masquerades as the essential connector and facilitator of the 21st century, but how it is really still in the stone age. 

When you think of IT, do not think of the Bethesda Medical Institute. Think of witch doctors prescribing bleeding by leech, or a range of herbal remedies for things like cancer or broken bones.

They don't want you to know this...

IT is in the Middle Ages when it comes to the technology. This fact is camouflaged behind the knowledge that we, the users, don't understand the technology.  If we did, we would stand back aghast at the idiocy and incompetence set out before us.

Let's start...you will see a daily log of IT issues below.

September 19, 2024.

Issue #1: I work in a secure building, on a secure laptop, using secure internet supplied to service the same secure building. I arrived at work, and tried to log into the secure internet system using the secure laptop. I provided my two different passwords, via two different access portals. The passwords were accepted. Then I got this message, which is a message I get about half the time I try to log in...

"Login denied. You have hit the DlftAccessPolicy - Connection terminated."

Why was my access denied? The notice doesn't explain. When you call IT services, what do you think they say? Well, I think we all know what they say, now don't we...

"Have you tried shutting your computer off and starting again?"

Translation...

"Have you tried wormwood root for your tummy ache, or maybe a lavender enema?"

Reality - they don't know what is wrong. They have no clue. 

Emperor IT is walking down the road. Have you noticed that he is naked?

Issue #2: I was just asked to approve something in the internal IT system where I work. To do that, you need to log in via the Internet. The internal site will not function on Microsoft Edge. It will only work on Google.  

The place I work has hundreds of thousands of employees, and a budget of hundreds of billions of dollars. And yet, it's internal approvals system does not work on one of the world's top internet service platforms.  

You can't make this shit up.

September 20, 2024.

In secure building, on secure laptop, trying to log into secure internet, both passwords accepted, after restarting my computer, made two attempts...

"Login denied. You have hit the DlftAccessPolicy - Connection terminated."

Yup.

September 22, 2024.

In secure building, on secure laptop, trying to log into secure internet, both passwords accepted, after restarting my computer, made two attempts...

"Login denied. You have hit the DlftAccessPolicy - Connection terminated."

Yup.

September 23, 2024.

I met someone for lunch at a restaurant. My cellphone simply stopped working - no access to the Internet. I did not change any of the Settings. 

I shut it off and started it again. That didn't work. Some time later, it just accessed the Internet again, also for no apparent reason. 

I have no idea why it stopped. I have no idea why it started again. We met for lunch in the middle of a medium sized Western city, so access to the Internet was not the issue.

What if automobiles operated like this - sometimes they work, and sometimes they don't. Would we then realize how desperately incompetent the auto industry would have to be to build such occasionally useless crap?

September 24, 2024.

I uploaded a Word document this morning. 

I have received at least fifteen "Upload failed" notifications, even though I successfully uploaded the document. 

I have also received about fifteen notifications telling me to save the document that the computer says I didn't upload!

These notifications reduced my productivity by about 10%, as I had to stop working to deal with the notifications, one after the other. 

I had no idea how to stop the notifications, which were coming at regular intervals. 

"The new definition of 'insanity' is responding to the same IT notifications over and over again, expecting that they will somehow miraculously end. They won't end.” 

 

September 25, 2024.

Issue #1: I uploaded a Microsoft Presentation. I started working on it, and wanted to save it to my computer as a draft and rename it.  I could not save it unless I first uploaded it to the Microsoft Cloud.  The only way to rename it was to send it to myself and save it from the email.

Why? Why not let me just "save as" and create a different presentation? Who is in charge of this presentation, me or Microsoft?

I found a way, but this was irritating and a total waste of my time.

Issue #2:  I was on a Teams meting and had to leave early. I looked for the "Chat" button so that I could inform the group of my intention to leave. There was no "Chat" button. I had to interrupt the speaker to advise that I was going to depart.  

Where as the button? Was I using an older version of Teams? I don't know. I tested Teams this morning; there is a Chat button again.

Imagine that you owned a car that had windows that rolled down or not depending on who knows what!? One day the window rolls down, the next day it doesn't. Would you buy that car? This "optional functionality" is 100% normal in the world of IT.

September 26, 2024.

In secure building, on secure laptop, trying to log into secure internet, both passwords accepted, after restarting my computer, made two attempts...

"Login denied. You have hit the DlftAccessPolicy - Connection terminated."

Yup.

Note that I did log in successfully yesterday, when outside of the secure building using a non-secure internet.

Yup...Yup.

October 1, 2024.

In secure building, on secure laptop, trying to log into secure internet, both passwords accepted, after restarting my computer, made two attempts...

"Login denied. You have hit the DlftAccessPolicy - Connection terminated."

Yup.

October 3, 2024.

I went for a walk and had to go to the bathroom at some point. I stopped in at a local donut shop, and sat to do my business. I put my cell phone in my pocket, and was surprised to hear my good buddie chatting with me in my pocket. I pulled the phone out only to see him looking at me in a video call.

It turns out that I had pocket called five people when I put the phone in my pocket. The screen is so sensitive that literally any slight touch sets the apps off and running. You have to work hard for your phone to keep this shit from happening.

October 4, 2024.

Issue #1: In secure building, on secure laptop, trying to log into secure internet, both passwords accepted, after restarting my computer, made two attempts...

"Login denied. You have hit the DlftAccessPolicy - Connection terminated."

Yup.

Issue #2: I took a day off yesterday, so I did not log in.  

Oh oh!

I just got partially into the grid - see Issue #1. The file saving system is booting up every minute asking me to save files that are not opened and that I did not work on. When I close that screen, a second screen comes up saying "Upload failed".  I have not tried to upload anything as yet.

October 7, 2024.

I tried to access two web sites today based on emails sent to me by the institutions that own and operate the web sites. The log in request asked for my email address. Both said that they did not recognize my email address - the very same email address to which they had sent the requests.

Is IT really this fucking stupid?

Yes.

I still haven't been able to log in.

October 8, 2024.

In secure building, on secure laptop, trying to log into secure internet, both passwords accepted, after restarting my computer, made two attempts...

"Login denied. You have hit the DlftAccessPolicy - Connection terminated."

Yup.

Trump - Eating Dogs and Creating Diversions

The debate is over.  

The Left is all atwitter about Trump's claim that Haitian immigrants are eating dogs off the streets of Ohio. CNN won't stop talking about it...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/17/politics/haitian-immigrants-springfield-false-rumor-what-to-know/index.html

Did Trump do this on purpose?

For years, Trump Tweeted-out things that were borderline crazy. The Left focused on each and every one of these completely irrelevant utterances, while being seemingly blind to what was really going on. 

While they were mostly distracted, Trump stuffed the US court system with Conservative judges. He gave massive tax cuts to his buddies. He mismanaged the deadliest pandemic in 100 years. He moved forward borrowing at such a level that it eventually resulted in a negative assessment of US debt. He repealed reams of environmental and other necessary regulations.

In short, he used the cover of the Left's predictable responses to his regular irrational outbursts to remake much of American legal and fiscal life.

He said that Haitians eat dogs. Reality - not even one of his hard-core supporters cares about this. They hate the Democrats so much that if he actually ate a dog while on stage in the debate, they would still stay with him. 

The Independents might be swayed against Trump. These people will decide the election, but as of this morning, Trump would win the Electoral College if the election were to be held today.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college (see note at bottom)

Trump is constantly talking about bread and butter issues. Those are the ones that Americans are mostly concerned about, especially Inflation, which is an issue that affects literally every single voter.

Unless the Democrats stop focusing on what this writer thinks are Trump's carefully crafted dodges, and start communicating how they will improve the lives of average Americans, they will lose this election.  

On that, Harris has just started crisscrossing America talking to groups about her vision and taking actual questions. This welcome change could not have come a moment too soon.

Watch Pennsylvania. The state has flipped back and forth from Biden/Harris to Trump eight times since March, and three times in the last week! 

The editorial board of mewetree.blogspot.com has predicted a narrow Harris victory in November based on her winning Pennsylvania by less that 0.5% of the vote. In fact, that state just flipped back to Harris...WHILE THIS BLOG WAS BEING WRITTEN! 

The URL included above now shows Harris winning the Electoral College!

 .

Trump and Harris - Bribery for Votes

Trump and Harris have started releasing their respective lists of bribes - in the form of economic policies - that they will extend to voters in their attempts to win the 2024 US presidential election.

Initial bribes are as follows...

Harris would offer $25,000 to new home buyers, as well as attacking price gouging of consumers of food and drugs by multinational corporations. 

She would spend $40 Billion to help local governments build starter homes. 

She would make the Child Tax Benefit permanent, and would cut the taxes of poor people with children by $1,500 and would offer a $6,000 tax credit to families with newborns.

Trump would stop taxing tips received by service workers. About 25 million people in the USA are service workers, with a significant majority being women. 

Harris's plan is an expansion of much of what the US Government is already doing. 

Trump's plan just might get him the vote of every single service worker in the country!

So far, Trump's plan would clearly move the most votes to the GOP.

Note to political novices...money matters.

Ukraine War Update - Peace Talks May Be Close

What follows is a commentary on the current state of the war in Ukraine, especially in light of Ukraine's recent attack into Russia itself.

Please see here...https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/

Which contains this...

"Ukrainian commanders are crying out for more combat soldiers — one estimate from the former top commander, Valeriy Zaluzhny suggested they’d need an extra 500,000 troops. But Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian parliament are hesitant about ordering a massive fresh call-up. In an interview with POLITICO, Yermak, the powerful Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine,  offered an important — and to outsiders perhaps surprising — reason for not launching a mass mobilization: such a call-up wouldn’t have the backing of the people."

The recent offensive into Russia was probably launched, in part, to improve flagging Ukrainian spirits. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian army will not get the soldiers it needs to win this war because the population of Ukraine would not support such a call-up.

No elections can be held in Ukraine as martial law was declared in 2022. With millions of people still out of the country, they probably could not be organized anyway.

But what if they could? 

Would Ukrainians still support this war if they were told it requires the call-up of another 500,000 men, and likely many more years of renewed effort, and they were allowed to vote on it?

According to the above article, very likely no, and the Government of Ukraine knows it.

Then there is this...

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-aid-2667871647/

The recent US aid package is not nearly enough to enable Ukraine to defeat Russia, even if it had the manpower in place.

Reality - If winning means regaining the Donbas and Crimea, and not just surviving, other than the demise of Putin there is no obvious way in which Ukraine can win this war.

Does Zelenskyy understand this now? 

After Ukraine's repeat of the Battle of the Somme last summer, and the endless bloodletting of the Ukrainian Army trying to stop Russian attacks this summer, he likely does. 

This recent attack on Russia is designed to strengthen his bargaining position in peace talks that he thinks need to start in the autumn, as he realizes that, regardless of who wins the US Presidential election, this is over.

We shall see.

US Presidential Election - Fearless Prediction!!

Hello All!  

We are going to call it!  

To heck with CNN and Fox and the Deep State (😉)! 

The editorial board here at mewetree.blogspot.com will call the US Presidential Election for you right now, three months before the vote! 

Drum roll please...

In the closest election in American history, Kamala Harris will win the US Presidential Election by 270 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump's 268.

The entire election will come down to the vote in Pennsylvania, which Harris will win by less that 0.5% of the popular vote.

Trump will not accept the results of the election, but J.D. Vance will, effectively nullifying Trump's vigorous opposition to the verdict of the electorate.

Bonus prediction!

President Kamala Harris will be a catastrophe as President, overseeing a devastating recession; vacillating on the international stage to the detriment of American and allied security; as well as being completely ineffective in the face of serious internal political strife occasioned by a widening US culture war, clearing the way for President Nikki Haley in 2028.