Middle East Explained

It is all so simple...

Iran is allied with Assad in Syria, who will no doubt benefit from the tens of billions of dollars that will eventually be released to Iran as a result of Iran's new nuclear deal with the UN, the West and others. Assad is also allied with Russia, which is also Iran's de facto ally.

Iran is a de facto ally of Iraq and the USA, the West and others including Saudi Arabia in their war against ISIL, although Saudi Arabia and Iran are otherwise political and economic competitors, and Saudi Arabia opposes the recent nuclear deal with Iran.  Iran is also the potential dire enemy of the USA, the West and others, including Saudi Arabia in respect of their nuclear ambitions.  So Iran is an enemy of the West; a de facto ally; and an ally of enemies of the West all in one.

Assad is the declared enemy of the West, which has demanded a regime change in Syria, but he is also the de facto ally of the West in the war against ISIL  It is not clear what the West would do if their de facto ally decided to use poison gas again against the common enemy, ISIL.  Is it only a war crime when our opponents do it?

Egypt is Assad's other ally in the Middle East, and Egypt is also allied to the West, and is opposed to ISIL. However, Egypt has recently moved closer to Russia, which an increasingly serious opponent of the West. It is worth noting that Turkey supports the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the sworn enemy of the Egyptian Government, while also being formally allied with the West through NATO.  The West therefore has two powerful allies who are at loggerheads over the future of Egypt.

China is also an ally of Assad.  It also supports the deal with Iran.  It is not clear what role China has in the Middle East, except perhaps as the natural successor to the American Empire at some point in the future. They buy a lot of oil.

Hezbollah is also a supporter of Assad, and a de facto enemy of ISIL.  It has been declared a terrorist organization by the West.  Hezbollah is supported by Iran, the West's de facto ally against even more horrible terrorists in ISIL  Hamas also opposes ISIL, and ISIL has formerly threatened Hamas with extermination for failure to implement ISIL's brand of Islam.  It is worth noting that ISIL's religious philosophy, if taken to its logical conclusion, would see the extermination of over 1.5 billion Muslims who don't practice their faith the way ISIL deems appropriate.  Just about everyone else on Earth would be enslaved.

ISIL is allied with the Sunnis in Iraq, who used to be secularists under Saddam Hussein.  The Sunnis are enemies of the Shiites and Kurds in Iraq, and ISIL's recent success in Iraq is directly attributable to Sunni complicity in the ISIL invasion of last year.  As Saddam's henchmen, many of the Sunni leaders who are now part of ISIL perpetrated crimes against humanity that make what ISIL does look like the work of rank amateurs.  ISIL beheads people...they don't feed them live into wood chippers, or send videos to people who escaped their grasp showing their female relatives who stayed behind being gang raped, at least not yet. ISIL's essential religious philosophy is also an extreme version of that of Saudi Arabia, which is its sworn enemy, and which has been spreading its Wahhabi version of Islam through the world for decades.

The Government of Iraq is allied with the USA, the West, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.  It is at loggerheads with the Sunnis and Kurds in Iraq, who have essentially set up separate governments within the same state.  The ISIL state in Iraq is in some ways the new Sunni state in Iraq.

Turkey appears to tolerate ISIL, in that it will not go to war with ISIL even with fighting spilling into Turkey, perhaps because it is opposed to the Kurds who are at war with ISIL  Ironically, the one country that could eliminate the ISIL state in about a week is Turkey.

Remember Al-Qaeda?  This terrorist organization opposes ISIL, considering them to be too extreme. Almost everyone is opposed to Al-Qaeda...they are so 2001.

The USA and the Gulf States, led by Saudi Arabia are involved in an economic war over oil.  The Gulf States have decided to pump so much oil that the price if oil will fall to a point that makes fracking in the USA uneconomical, and by doing this they will kill this nascent industry.  It is not clear what long term interest the USA has in protecting what are now its primary economic competitors in the area of oil extraction.

Finally, Israel is a de facto ally of some countries in the West, notably the USA.  It is at peace with Egypt and Jordan.  Iran, among others such as Hezbollah, have regularly sworn to wipe Israel off the face of the face of the Earth.

Don't expect peace and harmony to break out in the Middle East anytime soon.