What Was Stalin Thinking? What Will Putin Do Next?

A prosecutor in Russia has confirmed that the 1954 transfer of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine was illegal, at least in his rather biased opinion.  The result is that Russia may now claim that the recent annexation of Crimea by Russia is entirely legitimate.  "Annexation"?  Why no, it was a return to justice!!  No doubt all those Western sanctions will soon fall away in the face of this recent legal clarification.  One is left wondering if Ukraine owes Russia an apology as a result of this powerful revelation.

But it gets better!  This same prosecutor has apparently decided to investigate whether the 1991 recognition of the independence of the Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia by the old Soviet Union was also illegal.  The obvious implication is that should this recognition also be found to be illegal, then Russia has a legitimate legal claim of some sort to these three countries. Of course, these three countries were previously claimed as part of the old Soviet Union from 1940 to 1991. They were only "claimed", as the occupation of these three countries by the Soviet Union in 1940 was never recognized by the United States, the UK, Canada, NATO and other countries and international organizations.

One fundamental problem with the occupation of these independent states by the Soviets in 1940 and the later Soviet claim to sovereignty, was that this occupation and claimed sovereignty was facilitated by the 1939  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact through which Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union agreed in secret to divide Poland and the Baltic region into spheres of influence.  The Soviets got part of Poland and the three independent Baltic States as its reward for making a deal with the Nazis.

What may this mean for a future Russian claim?  If this Russian prosecutor concludes that the previous recognition of Baltic independence was also illegal, and Russia then proceeds to claim that it still has some form of sovereignty over these now independent countries, then the Russians will actually be relying, in part, on a previous agreement with Adolf Hitler to back their rekindled claims.

What does history tell us about making and then relying on deals with Hitler?  If the later Soviet experience in the Great Patriotic War is any indication, relying in any way on deals with Hitler was a bad idea.  One would hope that Putin will be wise enough not to repeat Stalin's error.