Thursday 10 September 2015

Market Movements

A summary of upward and downward movements in various stock markets in the last 30 days...

DOW (USA, USA, USA!!!) - 17,615, down to 15,666, up to 16,654, down to 16,058, up to 16,374, down to 16,102, and ending today at 16,330.  This was movement of almost 9% from top to bottom in 30 days.

TSE (Canadian, eh!) - 14,466 down to 13,052, up to 13,865, down to 13,481, up to 13,596, down to 13,478, ending at 13,570.  This was movement of about 10% from top to bottom in 30 days.

FTSE 100 (Stiff upper lip...nothing to see here...move along...) - 6,736, down to 5,898, up to 6,081, up to 5,979, up to 6,247, down to 6,058, up to 6,194, down to 6,042, ending at 6,155 today.  This was movement of about 12.5% from top to bottom in 30 days.

Nikkei 225 (Tora, Tora, Tora!!) - 20,808, down to 20,392, up to 20,595, down to 17,806, up to 19,136, down to 17,427, up to 18,770, ending at 18,299.  This was movement of about 16% from top to bottom in 30 days.

DAX - (It's a Ballroom Blitz!) - 11,604, down to 10,924, up to 11,014, down to 9,648, up to 10,128, down to 9,997, up to 10,315, down to 10,015, up to 10,317, down to 10,038, ending at 10,210. This was movement of about 17% from top to bottom in 30 days.

And then.....

CSI 300 (It is GLORIOUS to get rich!) - 4,084, down to 3,825, up to 3,886, down to 3,025, up to 3,342, down to 3,250, ending at 3,357.  This was movement of 26% from top to bottom in 30 days.

This range of movement represents a tug of war between Fear and Greed.  Fear always wins in this scenario.

The pending decision of the US Fed on interest rates is weighing on all markets.

If they raise rates, markets will fall as debt-driven Greed takes a backseat to "the free lunch is over" Fear.

If they stand pat, Greed will win the day for a while, until the reality that they can't raise rates even 0.25% without risking a calamity takes hold, and with it the slow realization that the recovery is a fraud.

These are the last days of disco.

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