Saturday, 31 October 2015

Bye Bye AA

Alex Anthopoulos is gone!  Likely the only general manager in baseball history to ever be cheered by fans at an away game, he will be sorely missed in Toronto.

For the record...

When he took over as GM in Toronto in 2009, the Blue Jays had the 29th ranked farm system in baseball. After three years with AA at the helm they had the 1st ranked farm team system in baseball.

This was his tremendous contribution to the Blue Jays.  The scouting system he put in place is, quite simply, the best.  It allowed the Jays to load up with awesome minor league talent that allowed for the trades that got them to where they are today.  Even in 2013, after his awesome trade with Miami, the Blue Jays were ranked first in Vegas as the odds on favourites to win the World Series.  No one could have predicted Josh Johnson's and Ricky Romero's complete collapses as pitchers.  It took two years to recover from this.

Today the Blue Jays have the best third baseman and best shortshop in baseball.  Toluwisky and Donaldson make every pitcher better. Their line up is the most feared in baseball.  Their 891 runs in one season is over 5 runs a game!  Who would ever want to pitch to that kind of a line up! Vegas will make them the odd-on favourite to with the World Series again next year.

The future for this team is exceptionally bright, as AA has moved them from the life sentence which is mediocrity, to the first rank.  He did it by following a methodical plan based on a great scouting and farm system that was then used to acquire the talent they need to succeed.

What happened?  It has been suggested that he was told that he traded too much away in 2015 to save his job.  But he just rejected a five-year deal, and in the circumstances, telling him he traded too much away was an obvious invitation to leave.  If it was all about saving his job, he would have signed.  It was about what it has always been about with this guy - baseball.  Again, he will be sorely missed.


Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Revolution Denial

Playboy Magazine To Stop Publishing Fully Nude Female Photos in an Effort to Lead the Repression Revolution!

Posted: 10/13/2015 6:41 am EDT Updated: 1 hour ago 

NEW YORK-- Playboy magazine will no longer publish photos of nude women as part of a redesign of the decades-old magazine, according to a news report Monday. Executives for the magazine company told The New York Times that the change will take place in March 2016. The paper reported that the print edition of Playboy will still feature women in conservative poses, well-covered to defeat any sexual provocation, and they will most definitely not be nude.
Playboy editor Cory "Praise the Lord!" Jones contacted founder and current editor in chief Hugh Hefner recently about dropping nude photos from the print edition and he agreed, the Times reported.  

Said Hefner, "Now that I have reached the twilight years, and my penis had finally faded in a Cialis-encrusted decline, I have had time to reflect on my life.  It is clear to me that I have made a grave error spending that last seven decades having sexual intercourse with literally thousands of gorgeous young women, while spending time in the company of the most famous and powerful people in the world.  I look at myself in the mirror these days, and say 'Shame on you Hef you masher...shame on you for all that sex you had with all of those gorgeous young women, and shame on you for enjoying all that fame and making all that money from what?  From sex!!'.  I was a leader of the sexual revolution, who coasted on a wave of sex, fame and money literally for decades.  I now know that was wrong...wrong, wrong, wrong!!!  We need to return to a more repressed age, when sex was something you had within the bounds of marriage, for the sole purpose of procreation.  Amen, and pass the saltpeter!"

The change represents a major shift for the magazine, which featured Marilyn Monroe on its debut cover in 1953.  But technology has overtaken the formula. "You're now one click away from every sex act imaginable for free. And so it's just awful what we have wrought,'' said Scott "Eunuch" Flanders, the company's chief executive. "We recently had a read-in and book study at the Grotto, where Hef enunciated on his errors, and lead us in a reading of 'The Turn of the Screw', emphasizing the terrible price to pay for sexual freedom. Let the Repression Revolution begin!"

The Times reported that playboy's print circulation, once measured in millions, is now about 800,000, according to Alliance for Audited Media.  Said Hefner, "Look, the largest selling book in history is the Bible.  OK - we get it.  Breasts are out; the 10 Commandments are in.  Praise the Lord and pass the chastity belts!"

Previous efforts to revamp Playboy have never quite stuck.  But this time, as the magazine seeks to compete with younger outlets, Flanders said it sought to answer a key question: "if you take nudity out, what's left? Well, sexual repression and denial, that's what left! Get me my hair shirt!''

Monday, 5 October 2015

Top Ten Fighter Aircraft

I recently came across a pile of "top ten" sites.  This is what I would have written about 40 years ago...updated for technological developments since I was young. Top Ten Fighter Aircraft in History follow, ranked from 10th to 1st.  They are loosely ranked by considering their performance as against their contemporary rivals, but with an emphasis on the overall effect on whatever wars they were a part of, or on their overall deterrent effect. If the plane in question did not leave a significant mark, it is not ranked here. Some honourable mentions to start.

The Great Soviet WW2 fighters, the La 5 and 7, and the Yak 1, 7, 9, and 3. The Yak 3 was so dangerous that German pilots were instructed to not dogfight them below 15,000 ft. These fighters wrested control of the sky from the Luftwaffe from 1942 on. They were not really the decisive factor, however, as the Russians simply used the same tactics in the air as they used on the ground which was to overwhelm opponents with sheer numbers. The result was a victory for the Soviets, but with massive losses, and correspondingly high kill totals for German pilots. These aircraft aren't included then, not because they were not great performers, but because they were used mostly as cannon-fodder.

The Great American Navy WW2 fighters, the Grumman F6F Hellcat, and the Chance Vought Corsair. These planes bested the fighters of the Japanese Navy and Army starting in early 1943. The Corsair ran up a 13 to 1 kill ratio against the Japanese, who put barely trained pilots in obsolete aircraft to try to match them. The Americans in the Pacific, like the Soviets on the Eastern Front, simply overwhelmed their opponents. By the end of the war, the US Navy had 103 aircraft carriers; the Japanese had 6 which were immobilized owing to a lack of fuel. The Corsair likely deserves to be ranked as one of, if not the best fighter of WW2, other then the ME-262. But the aspect of simply overwhelming the Japanese takes away from the lustre of these planes.

The Italian Reggianne RE. 2005. This was the best Italian plane of WW2, and it was easily the equal of the P-51 Mustang that ranked as number 1 below. It was only built in tiny numbers, however, and had no effect on the outcome of the war.

Here are the top 10.

10. A6M Mitsubishi Zero/Ki-43 Nakajima Oscar. These were the primary fighters of the Japanese Imperial Navy and Army at the start of WW2. The design philosophy behind these planes was to make then as maneuverable as possible, with a maximum rate of climb. To do this, they were as light as possible, with the designers eschewing armour plate, and self-sealing gas tanks which had become standard on Allied aircraft by the end of 1940. The Japanese even build some with no radios, and Japanese pilots were known to fly without parachutes in order to save weight!

The result was two aircraft that could outfly anything the Allies had in Asia at the start of the Pacific War. These planes eliminated virtually all P-36 Hawks, P-40 Warhawks, Hawker Hurricanes, Brewster Buffaloes, and Grumman Wildcats they faced, clearing the way of the Japanese armed forces to storm across the Pacific and all the way to the Indian frontier. Only after the Allies rearmed with planes such as the Hellcat, Corsair and P-38 Lightening, and retrained focussing on tactics that avoided maneuvering with the Japanese, did the tide turn. When it turned, the lightly built Japanese aircraft were no match for the heavily armed and armoured Allied fighters, and the result was a slaughter. These planes are listed as they enabled a conquest by Japan in 1941 that would not have been nearly as successful had they not been used.























9. Dassault Mirage 3/McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom. These are representatives of the third generation Western fighter aircraft that dominated the world's skies from the mid-1960's to the mid-1980s, successfully deterring WW3.  The other obvious choice is the Soviet Mig-21 which was built in its tens of thousands, and which is still used all over the world today.  

The Mirage and Phantom were great planes, each excelling in their own way - the Phantom was a heavy, two-seat "do anything, go anywhere" fighter, fighter-bomber, interceptor, reconnaissance, and anti-radar aircraft, serving both land-based and naval carrier-based squadrons. The Mirage was a sleek, incredibly effective single-seat, light combat aircraft that performed almost as many roles as the Phantom. The Mig was different. The problem with this third plane is that, compared with the Mirage and Phantom, it proved to be an absolute dog in combat. In Vietnam, the US Air Force used the advanced missile technology of the F-4 to totally dominate the Mig-21. In 1967, the Israelis, using the Mirage 3, destroyed virtually every Mig-21 in Egypt's arsenal with almost no losses to themselves. 


Although the Mig was great on paper, it had very serious flaws. One was the inability of the pilot to simply see his opposition. There is a Mig-21 cockpit in the Canadian Aviation Museum in which visitors are allowed to sit. It is worth a look, as the first thing any visitor will notice is that it is impossible to see out to the sides of the cockpit, or to any degree down from the cockpit. Any pilot in this plane would not be able to see his opposition. It is a deathtrap, so it was not included with these other aircraft. (Note - The Israelis captured one in the 1970's and test flew it against Mirages.  To avoid detection, the Mirage pilots simply flew below the Mig-21, knowing there was no way they could be detected.)


Dassault Mirage III



8. Fokker D-VII/ME-262. Germany is a frightening opponent when it is losing a war. Toward the end of WW1 and WW2 it produced two aircraft that were revolutionary enough to be emulated by all aircraft producers in the years after they were introduced. The first was the Fokker DVII, which was introduced by the Imperial Air Force of Germany in 1918. This plane was clearly better than anything the Allies had in the air at the time.  It utilized thick cantilever wings, which aimed at eliminating the bracing and struts that slowed biplanes down in flight. The result was an aircraft with low speed handling and climb characteristics that made it a dangerous opponent for Allied pilots. The plane was so feared that it is the only aircraft mentioned in the Armistice agreements, where the Germans were directed to hand over all of the Fokker DVII's in their possession.  By WW2, all combat aircraft had cantilever wings (i.e. all control cables were in the wings rather than outside, as with WW1 biplanes).

The second of these aircraft was even more revolutionary.  The ME-262 was the world's first really successful jet fighter aircraft (Note - the British Gloster Meteor actually entered service first, but the first versions of this plane were not especially successful - the ME-262 had a 130 MPH speed advantage over the Meteor).  When introduced in mid-1944, the ME-262 Sparrow had no competitor on the Allied side capable of matching its performance.  It's 540 MPH maximum speed was 100 MPH faster than that of a P-51 Mustang.  The secret was not just its two jet engines, but also its swept wing design which was copied by all aircraft producers after the war.







7. P-47 Thunderbolt/FW-109 Wurger (Butcher Bird)/P-38 Lightening.  These were the also-ran fighter aircraft of the Luftwaffe and the US Air Force in WW2; the FW-190 playing second fiddle to the ME-109 (see number 2 on this list), and the P-47 and P-38 playing second fiddle to the P-51 Mustang (see number 1 on this list).   

The FW-190 dominated the RAF over the English Channel from the Summer of 1941, to mid-1942, when the Brits introduced an uprated version of the Spitfire in the Spring of 1942.  It became the Luftwaffe's primary ground attack and bomber destroyer after that.  It's performance lagged somewhat from 1943 to 1944, until the introduction of the FW-190D in 1944, which was competitive with anything the Allies had.  


The P-47 was the main American fighter in the European Theater until the P-51 took over bomber escort missions in December of 1943, after which time the P-47 became the US Air Force's ground attack aircraft, par excellence.  It was an unexceptional bomber escort, lacking the range to escort US bombers to Germany and back, but it was devastating as a ground attack aircraft.  It blasted everything in front of the US Army from D-day to the end of the war, and made a massive contribution to Allied successes in 1944-45.  These planes are included as their performance was superior in the roles they were given, and they made huge contributions to the war efforts of the nations that used them.


Finally, the P-38 was used in a massive number of different roles - fighter, fighter-bomber, photo-reconnaissance, bomber, night-fighter, and torpedo bomber. It was a single pilot, two engine monster, that was let down by its engine in the European Theatre, but excelled everywhere else, especially in the Pacific where it was the mount of America's two highest-scoring aces of the war (Bong with 40, and McQuire with 38 kills). Had it been more successful against Luftwaffe fighter pilots, it could conceivably have ranked in the top three.







6. Fokker E-1.  This was the first fighter aircraft in history to have a machine gun synchronized to fire through the propeller.  Before this, airmen would shoot at one another with pistols, or rifles hoping to do damage.  Once it started to appear over the Western Front in WW1, it absolutely revolutionized aerial warfare.  The tactics developed by Oswald Boelcke ("Dicta Boelcke"), one of its earliest pilots, are still applicable today. For good or ill, this plane started it all.







5. F-86 Sabre.  This was a first generation American jet fighter aircraft.  It battled the Russian Mig-15 over Korea during the Korean War.  The planes looked similar, although the Mig had certain performance advantages.  Where the Mig was weak was in comparison to the technology "under the hood" of the Sabre, especially the radar-assisted gun site.  The Sabre represented a technological advantage of West over East that has stood for 70 years.  Over Korea, the Sabre pilots from the West, including numerous Canadians flying with the US Air Force, achieved a 3 to 1 kill ratio over the Mig-15, which was in many ways a better plane.  The Canadian-built Sabre 6 is generally considered the best fighter aircraft of that era.













4. Hawker Hurricane/Supermarine Spitfire.  I added these two planes as they essentially won the most important battle of WW2 - the Battle of Britain.  In the Summer of 1940, France had fallen to the Germans, and Britain and her Empire stood alone against the might of Nazi Germany.  For over a year, Canada was her largest ally.

The Germans had to destroy the Royal Air Force before they could destroy the Royal Navy from the air and then invade Britain where her vastly superior army would easily conquer Britain and end the war.  Had they successfully invaded Britain, they would have had no need to keep a substantial army in France to guard against a potential British assault.  The Germans would have been able to turn East, as they did a year later, and eliminate the Soviet Union as well.  In that fateful summer, the German Luftwaffe had over 2,500 aircraft reigned against Britain, including almost 850 ME-109's (see number 2 aircraft below). The Royal Air Force had fewer than 600 fighters left after losing hundreds of planes and their pilots trying to save France.

Churchill called the pilots who beat the Germans in the skies over Britain in the Summer of 1940 "the few", as if to imply that they were actually special, and in the sense that what they did mattered. There is a literature current since the end of WW2 that battles do not matter - world history is decided by things like industrial potential, organization, demographics etc.  This is undoubtedly true. The great exception is the exceptionally bloody aerial battle over Southern England from June to October, 1940.


The RAF destroyed over 1900 German planes, losing 915 themselves in that battle - yes, the Brits lost 50% more fighter aircraft than the number that they started with. There is no question that, had these massively outnumbered pilots in their Hurricanes and Spitfires not stopped the Germans in their tracks we would be living in a different world today. They saved Britain, enabling it to keep fighting so it could go on to win the war five years later with its larger American and Russian allies. The pilots came from all over the world - Brits, Poles, Canadians, Aussies, Kiwis, South Africans, and a few Americans, and two other air forces played minor roles - the Italian Air Force, and the Royal Canadian Air Force whose No.1 Fighter Squadron also flew Hurricanes.


Spitfire on its own was an awesome plane - easily the equal of the ME-109, or P-51 Mustang.  It was also probably the most beautiful aircraft ever built.  It could easily rank higher here, but is dragged down by the Hurricane (first plane pictured below), which while a competent aircraft, was not in the top ten.


















3. F-15 Eagle.  This aircraft is all about deterrence.  It is an American fourth generation fighter aircraft.  It has effectively deterred anyone opposed to America and the West for almost 40 years.  It was first produced in the mid-1970's, and is still flying all over the world.  It has such a good kill ratio (98 to 1) that opposing air forces such as the Iraqi Air Force in the first Gulf War, and the Serbian one in the Kosovo Crisis in 1998, simply refused to take the air if these planes were known to be around. The great Russian aircraft produced in the last 30 years - the Mig 29, and SU-35 - are basically copies of this plane.  To take off, the pilot only needs to point it straight up and accelerate...it can easily go supersonic in its climb.












2.  ME-109.  This German fighter was produced in greater numbers than any other aircraft in history, except the Russian Il2 Sturmovik....about 35,000 in total.  It was used throughout WW2, and was effective right up to the end.  It was hard to fly, but once mastered, it was a beast.  A total of 103 German fighter pilot claimed more than 100 kills in WW2, the vast majority while flying the ME-109. Pilots in the next fighter listed here bested it over Berlin starting in late 1943.  Otherwise, the pilots of this plane were stone cold killers like no other group in the history of aerial warfare - they shot down over 70,000 enemy planes, and their highest scoring pilot - Eric Hartmann - had 352 kills.













1. P-51 Mustang.  An American fighter aircraft from WW2 that was build to a British requirement.  It combined a US airframe and a British Rolls Royce Merlin engine.  It had huge range, and was able to escort US bombers deep into Germany, and it could also escort Superfortress bombers to Japan and back in the Pacific.  It was such a good aircraft that when it arrived over these countries, there was basically nothing that America's enemies could put in the air to stop them.  It remade the airwar over Germany from one the Americans were losing to one they were winning.  Adolf Galland, leader of the German fighter defence force in the latter half of the war, remarked that once these aircraft appeared over Berlin effectively keeping German fighters away from US bombers, he knew the war was over.














So much for a misspent youth!



Friday, 2 October 2015

Putin on the Risk

Russian aircraft at the instigation of Vladimir Putin are bombing Assad's opponents in Syria, including those that are backed by the West.  The West is essentially powerless to stop this.  Jean Chrètien, former PM of Canada, has suggested that maybe Putin's intervention could be useful.  What to do?
Normally, the west could make a deal with Putin over Crimea and Ukraine, and then work together to defeat ISIL, and/or remove Assad, likely replacing him with a puppet acceptable to Putin, but remove him nonetheless.  What is standing in the way of any deal with Putin is Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, which was shot down over territory controlled by Russian-backed insurgents in Eastern Ukraine.  The Russians have disavowed any involvement.  Because of this horrific act, and obvious Russian complicity no one can talk about making a deal with Putin.  Something has to break here.
Let's "blue sky" for a moment.  If Putin would allow the Russian Government to find blame with certain Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine for MH17 - let's call them "the fall guys" - then offer to "voluntarily" pay compensation to the families of the victims, this could open the door to the following.
1. Ask Putin to agree to an internationally-monitored referendum in Crimea to confirm the preference of the populace there to be part of Russia.
2. If the answer is "yes", facilitate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia for compensation to Ukraine for loss of Crimea (i.e. $25 in oil, or low-priced oil for 25 years).
3. Confirm that, in return for Russia no longer backing rebels in Eastern Ukraine, Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO, but can have economic relations with any country or organization it wants. Leave the suppression of the rebels to the Government of Ukraine. If the Russians are caught aiding the rebels again, start immediate negotiations for Ukraine to join NATO.
4. Negotiate with Putin for the removal/replacement of Assad, who as a leader who has gassed his own people is a non-starter with the West.  The West could agree that, should he go no International criminal charges will follow.
5. Work with Russia to destroy ISIL and all other Islamic militant groups in Syria and Iraq, including the use of a multinational ground force.  The result would probably be a sizable Western and Russian occupation force in Syria and the Sunni areas of Iraq. Syria would essentially become something akin to a UN Mandate again.
6. Organize UN-monitored elections in whatever is left of Syria.  Pour in humanitarian aid to rebuild and try to attract Syrians back to their country.
7. Subject to an Iraqi referendum, negotiate with Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds as well as Turkey and Iran to create three new countries out of Iraq - a Shiite country in the South; a Sunni one in the North-West; and a Kurdish one in the North-East.  As a statement of policy, the Shiite one could not become part of Iran, and the Kurdish one would have to refrain from supporting Kurdish rebels in Turkey. Reality - Iraq is dead.
Not moving forward on the diplomatic front means unending war, with increasing risk as more players get drawn in.  Putin is a natural ally in the fight against international terrorism.  Chrètien may be on to something, as long as certain conditions are met.

Thursday, 1 October 2015

Blue Jays Win!

The Toronto Blue Jays are the American League East Champions for the first time since 1993!  It is slowly becoming clear that this team may actually win the World Series.

To get there, the Blue Jays will probably have to beat the Yankees and Royals.  They won the season series against both, and they are way better at the end of the season than they were at the beginning or in the middle - the addition of Stroman has added a massive punch to their starting line up in the last month.  I would think that, everything being equal, they will get past these two teams handily, and make it to the World Series.

In the World Series, I think they will face the Chicago Cubs.  The Cubs are tied with the Padres for the worst hitting average in the baseball, but they are third in ERA, and their manager is a magician. That manager has bested Gibby throughout his career.

While the Blue Jays have are the greatest hitting team in baseball, the reality is that pitching wins championships.  With Stroman, the Jays pitching is way better than its 12th ranking in ERA this season.  If I had to predict a winner, I would say it will be the Jays in 7 games. Kawasaki will play, and will shock everyone at the plate - he will be the series MVP.  I've been making this prediction since April; I see no reason the change it.

Go Jays Go!