Putin on the Risk

Russian aircraft at the instigation of Vladimir Putin are bombing Assad's opponents in Syria, including those that are backed by the West.  The West is essentially powerless to stop this.  Jean Chrètien, former PM of Canada, has suggested that maybe Putin's intervention could be useful.  What to do?

Normally, the west could make a deal with Putin over Crimea and Ukraine, and then work together to defeat ISIL, and/or remove Assad, likely replacing him with a puppet acceptable to Putin, but remove him nonetheless.  What is standing in the way of any deal with Putin is Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, which was shot down over territory controlled by Russian-backed insurgents in Eastern Ukraine.  The Russians have disavowed any involvement.  Because of this horrific act, and obvious Russian complicity no one can talk about making a deal with Putin.  Something has to break here.

Let's "blue sky" for a moment.  If Putin would allow the Russian Government to find blame with certain Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine for MH17 - let's call them "the fall guys" - then offer to "voluntarily" pay compensation to the families of the victims, this could open the door to the following.

1. Ask Putin to agree to an internationally-monitored referendum in Crimea to confirm the preference of the populace there to be part of Russia.

2. If the answer is "yes", facilitate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia for compensation to Ukraine for loss of Crimea (i.e. $25 in oil, or low-priced oil for 25 years).

3. Confirm that, in return for Russia no longer backing rebels in Eastern Ukraine, Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO, but can have economic relations with any country or organization it wants. Leave the suppression of the rebels to the Government of Ukraine. If the Russians are caught aiding the rebels again, start immediate negotiations for Ukraine to join NATO.

4. Negotiate with Putin for the removal/replacement of Assad, who as a leader who has gassed his own people is a non-starter with the West.  The West could agree that, should he go no International criminal charges will follow.

5. Work with Russia to destroy ISIL and all other Islamic militant groups in Syria and Iraq, including the use of a multinational ground force.  The result would probably be a sizable Western and Russian occupation force in Syria and the Sunni areas of Iraq. Syria would essentially become something akin to a UN Mandate again.

6. Organize UN-monitored elections in whatever is left of Syria.  Pour in humanitarian aid to rebuild and try to attract Syrians back to their country.

7. Subject to an Iraqi referendum, negotiate with Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds as well as Turkey and Iran to create three new countries out of Iraq - a Shiite country in the South; a Sunni one in the North-West; and a Kurdish one in the North-East.  As a statement of policy, the Shiite one could not become part of Iran, and the Kurdish one would have to refrain from supporting Kurdish rebels in Turkey. Reality - Iraq is dead.

Not moving forward on the diplomatic front means unending war, with increasing risk as more players get drawn in.  Putin is a natural ally in the fight against international terrorism.  Chrètien may be on to something, as long as certain conditions are met.