Sports:
Superbowl - Patriots.
Stanley Cup - The Leafs and Canadiens will make the playoffs, but Ottawa will not. The winner will be the Chicago Black Hawks, again, cementing their dynasty.
Grey Cup - Ottawa RedBlacks.
World Series - The Blue Jays will win 88 games, but will come third in the AL East and not make the playoffs. The Cubs will beat the Red Sox in six games to win the World Series. Hell will freeze over.
Commodities:
Oil - Will slowly rise to $40 a barrel in the first part of the year, then rise sharply to $75 a barrel by the end of the year as countries like Saudi Arabia tighten supply to cause a price rise and stave off bankruptcy. There is a tug of war going on now between the US fracking industry and OPEC. OPEC will blink, and oil prices wiil rise.
Gold - Will dip early in the year in response to rising interest rates and currency appreciation in the USA to just under $1,000 an ounce, but will rise sharply starting near the end of the Summer in response to world economic turmoil to over $1,200 an ounce.
Copper - The world's economic canary in the coal mine will drop below $2.00 a pound, which is lower than it was during the recent Great Recession, implying that that recession is either back, or never really ended.
Economies:
World - The world will flirt with recession, with growth no higher than 1.5 - 2% as the USA and China stumble, and recession takes hold in Japan. It will slowly sink in that the Great Recession never really ended, and that massive monetary and fiscal stimulus has only postponed its effects.
US - There will be a significant economic decline in the first quarter of 2016, mirroring what happened in the last two years, followed by very slow growth in subsequent quarters. Overall, expect about 1% growth in the USA next year, and an unemployment rate that rises slightly. Business profits will be flat, causing significant turmoil in the stock markets. The USA will flirt with deflation, and the housing market will decline.
Canada - The housing bubble will start to collapse in Toronto and Vancouver as new rules regarding investments over $500 K start to take hold, and the era of free money appears to come to a close. The collapsing bubble will throw tens of thousands of construction workers and real estate-related employees out of work, causing a significant spike in the unemployment rate to over 8%. The federal deficit will top $20 billion, and Ontario will face a significant debt ratings downgrade. Unlike in the USA, Canada will experience some inflation.
China - It will become obvious that China has not really been experiencing economic growth for at least a few years as demonstrations start to erupt over economic conditions, such as collapsing house prices, and mass firings that have not been reported. The government will shoot people.
Markets - Stock markets worldwide will end the year down a minimum of 10% as the tremendous volatility that we witnessed in 2015 continues, and investors get used to the end of free money in the USA and the start of the era of zero growth (which actually started five years ago). Fear and Greed have been fighting it out in the markets all through 2015 - Fear will win in 2016. At one point, markets will be down 25%.
International Politics:
ISIS - The caliphate in Iraq will collapse later in the year as its income is squeezed because of Russian attacks against oil tanker convoys that are their financial life-blood, and the Sunnis throw them out hoping to set up their own separate state in North Western Iraq. Russia's successful war on ISIS, coupled with its surprise punishment of "rogue soldiers" as part of its response to the destruction of Flight MH-17, will be the genesis of a new rapprochement with the West.
Europe - The united continent will stagger from debt crisis to debt crisis, with countries like Spain and Portugal, and even Belgium joining Greece in questioning the policy of perpetual austerity. Britain will vote to stay in the Eurozone, but the British referendum will do significant damage to the EU by exposing its very tenuous underpinnings - basically, limited German money paying for loyalty, where everyone is in it for whatever they can get. Europe will look more like a temporary and optional experiment, where it is actually supposed to look like a permanent solution to 2000 years of continental division. Refugees will continue to swamp the continent, exposing the scourge of European nationalism just under the surface like at no time since WW2.
Asia - There will be a military confrontation in the South China Sea between China and Japan/The Philippines/Vietnam/South Korea over the building of new islands there by China for the purpose of claiming ownership of the entire region. The subtle purpose of this will be the deflect the attention of Chinese citizens from a seriously deteriorating economic situation. There will be no resolution to the dispute which will continue to simmer.
USA - Hillary Clinton will become President of the USA. Her administration will be known as the most divisive since the days of the Industrial North versus the Antebellum South. She will be a one-term president, after which a new political party will emerge in the United States uniting hitherto independents against the now clearly bought-off Republicans and Democrats.
Saudi Arabia - The alliance of the West with Saudi Arabia will break down as the economic war between the frackers in the USA versus OPEC supersedes the War on Terror. The Saudis will turn to China.
National Politics:
Federal - There will be a referendum on democratic reform....in 2017. Recall, Ranked Voting, and Elected Senate will win.
Drugs - There will be a strong movement to decriminalise all drugs, after legalizing Pot.
Foreign Real Estate - There will be anew requirement to report foreign purchases of real estate.
Other - No comment.
Crime:
Banksters - World bankers will be caught widely manipulating the requirement that they hold certain minimum reserves to insure against runs on the banks.
Terror - There will be more terror attacks in the West....many more plots will be foiled.
USA - There will be more mass murders in the USA...gun laws will not be significantly changed.
Rates - Overall crime rates will continue to decline everywhere in the West as the various populations age.
No comments:
Post a Comment