1. Oil...Buy NOW!
Since this post, Russia has indicated that it is not interested in cutting production as part of an OPEC initiative to drive up oil prices. I think this is temporary. They will all agree to cut production to avoid bankruptcy, just as they did 7 years ago. A 10% cut would leave a shortfall of about 1 - 1.5 million barrels a day, which would drive prices up significantly. Since this post on January 20th, the price of oil has moved from $26.55 to $30.89 per barrel, an increase of about 15%.
2. US Employment
The US employment numbers for January, 2016 came out last week. They show, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, that about 2.5 million more Americans are employed compared to this time last year (149 million employed in January, 2016, versus 146.5 million in January, 2015). The seasonally adjusted numbers show the same result, about 2.5 million new jobs (150.5million persons employed in January, 2016, versus 148.1 million employed in January, 2015.) What is a tad bizarre is the addition of about 1.5 million jobs through the process of seasonal adjustment. How many jobs were actually created? While there is some job growth, you can't really know this from reading the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. What does stand out is that while both the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted reports show 2.5 million new jobs, they both also show that the labour force participation rate has continued to decline. A declining participation rate is a strong indicator that the much vaunted US job growth is simply not accurate.
3. Why I Will Win Powerball!...
I didn't win.
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