Sunday, 14 February 2016

Welcome to the Dead Cat Bounce!

The definition of a “Dead Cat Bounce”:

“...a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions.”

Here is what it looks like...


Here is what it looks like if we are talking about a stock market.  The Nikkei - Japan’s stock market.


You’ll notice the drop, then the rise that did not match the previous peak, then the subsequent drop.

Here is the TSX…

3-year chart of TSX Index showing percent of stocks above 200-day simple moving average.

You’ll notice the drop, the subsequent recovery that did not match the previous market maximum, then the subsequent fall.

Here is the S&P 500…


You’ll notice, again, the drop, then the subsequent rise that did not go as high as the previous market maximum, then the subsequent fall.

No one knows where this is going.  Some markets are already down 20% from their peak.  The phenomena of the Dead Cat Bounce suggests that this market pull-back still has some way to go.

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