Britain's Humiliating Future Post Brexit

There will be another referendum. Britain will remain in Europe, but only after accepting humiliating terms that cut directly into British "exceptionalism", which Europe has been striving to accommodate for 43 years.

The impetus for this will be the looming dismemberment of the UK. The Scots did not vote in 2014 to remain in the UK in order to leave Europe. Northern Ireland may consider some type of union with Ireland in order to stay in the EU - by far the most shocking possible outcome from this sad charade. The people who rejected Europe did not intend to dismantle the UK. As the twin threats of Scottish and Northern Irish separation loom large, their opinions will begrudgingly change.

The next British election will be the key. Pro-Europe will stand against Anti-Europe with the sole issue being a call for another referendum, and this time the Pro-Europe voters, buttressed by new "protect the UK at all costs" voters, will actually show up. The result will be a landslide Pro-Europe majority, followed by a referendum with a similar landslide in favour of staying.

This will halt on-going negotiations between the UK and Europe, which will soon be triggered by the invocation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by Britain. After this is triggered, the Brits can only stay if every country in the European Union agrees. The price for staying will be very high - any British exceptionalism will be swept away.  The result of trying to go it alone will be even closer ties.

The last time Britain did something this stupid was the Suez Crisis, when the gunboats sailed, and the Empire strode forth to stop the nasty Egyptians from nationalizing the canal. The result was a humiliating political defeat when Britain's overlord and protector - the USA - refused to support the operation. Britain's empire essentially evaporated after that.

And the other story...

The nastier side of this sad episode is that European politicians will "get it". The lesson they will learn from Brexit is that the perception of too much immigration into Europe is threatening the political fabric of the continent. They will quietly work to restrict immigration into the Union in coming months, either by disallowing entry entirely, or by becoming very pro-Assad (and pro-Putin), essentially handing Syria back to a butcher in return for something like peace that will stem the flow of refugees from that part of the world.