Trump, the Damaged

Cue the smoke and mirrors...

"Blame the Democrats!" "Blame the Freedom Caucus!" and now..."Blame Ryan!"

Reality - no one will see the political catastrophe that is the failure of the effort to "repeal and replace" Obamacare as anything other than an indictment of President Trump.  

A president who cannot get one of the three main domestic policy planks under which he was elected done (the others are tax reform and the Wall), and who is under investigation for cooperating with America's historic enemy to gain power is now so severely damaged that he is not long with the White House.

The math isn't hard - the Democrats plus the Freedom Caucus = enough votes to impeach Trump in the House of Representatives.  An impeachment vote would have to be 50% + 1 there.  He just proved that he didn't have the votes to pass health care reform, in spite of the fact that this has been the number one Republican policy objective for seven years. I think those same votes will soon be mobilized to impeach him.

The Senate requires a 2/3 majority to impeach, meaning 19 Republicans will have to vote with the Democrats/Independents (48 Democrats/Independents + 19 Republicans= 67) to get rid of Trump. I think those who want to impeach will have the necessary votes.

What will be their respective motivations?

First the Republicans...

The Freedom Caucus would likely love a President Pence who is "their kind of people", especially after Trump's deeply ill-considered ultimatum to pass the American Health Care Act or pay a political price. Tax reform, and the elimination of masses of government programming? They don't need Trump for that.

The non-Freedom Caucus-linked Republicans hate Trump. He stole their party last year when he won the nomination, and even in his Inaugural Address, he just shit all over them while doing it.

The problem is in the Senate, where 19 Republicans have to turn against their party's president. In that august house, it is likely that McCain would sponsor the impeachment resolution, so at least his vote is in the bag!  The 18 others are all career politicians - they are the Establishment; they own Washington; and I think they deeply resent this impolitic interloper who is trying to change their game.  They are no doubt chafing at the bit to get at him. With the announcement of the FBI investigation, and the failure to deal with Obamacare, all they need now is an opportunity to launch some "we need to save America" propaganda lines to be rid of this troublesome man.

Finally, after demonizing this man in their propaganda to a point where he may even rival Hitler now in terms of his assumed inherent evil, and after beating their champion, Hillary Clinton, the Democrats would also love to get rid of Trump...regardless of the fact that the guy who would replace him is WAY more conservative than he is.

In short, Trump has managed to make enemies just about everywhere he has gone in Washington. Vengeance may be a dish best served cold, but I think things are about to get very hot there.

And, ironically enough, cross-party cooperation may finally come to Washington!!...albeit only as these very strange bedfellows look across the aisle and see their opportunity to strike a blow for America's deep and damaging cynicism. The Washington Establishment is about to win again!

Trump is now obviously done.  It is just a matter of time.