Hicks Fighting Back?

After disappearing for months, Hope Hicks took a flight with Trump on Air Force One on August 3^rd.  We now know that someone is actively resisting a subpoena issued the Grand Jury that Mueller is using to get people to testify.  The case challenging the subpoena went ahead on August 16^th.  

The time frame here suggests that Hicks is the person who got the subpoena, and challenged it, and had a nice chat with Trump likely about her options regarding testimony and a possible pardon. Recall, the apparently kept detailed notes of her time with Trump - this may be what Mueller is after.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/24/mueller-investigation-grand-jury-roger-stone-friend-938572

As I have said for months now, Mueller needs Cohen, Manafort and Hicks to flip to nail Trump’s son and son-in-law with conspiracy against the USA charges, and destroy Trump – the indictment will outline evidence that clearly shows collusion.  

He has Cohen and Manafort.  I think Hicks is putting up a fight, and the new job that Trump got for her at Fox will allow her to pay for it.  But she there is no basis for her to challenge the subpoena...she will lose…

Trump v Mueller - The Countdown is On!

Trump intends to fire Sessions and Rosenstein, and then appoint people who will fire Mueller immediately after the mid-terms. He can't do it now because there would be a massive political backlash that would cost the Republicans dearly in November. 

At the same time, Mueller is working hard to get everything he can out of Manafort before the mid-terms. See here...  

https://www.businessinsider.com/manafort-visited-mueller-9-times-cooperation-russia-collusion-2018-10

If he is going to avoid being fired, Mueller needs to put forward an interim report on his investigation immediately after the mid-terms, and it needs to contain a mass of evidence of Russian links to the Trump Campaign. Without this, he is done, as there would be no basis for any Republican to provide him with political cover. Note that these reports do not have to be made public...but the pressure to release this one will be so overwhelming, including from Republicans, that its release is a foregone conclusion.

So the countdown is on - will Trump fire everyone, including Mueller, before this report is ready for release, or will it be released in time and provide enough evidence of possible collusion to make firing Mueller politically impossible?? 

We shall see. 

In contrast to Trump's constant Twitter tirades, Mueller may also choose to speak out for the first time right after the mid-terms. If yes, it will probably be a short, sharp commentary about the proper role of politicians and the police, and about how police investigations are supposed to be allowed to unfold in a free and democratic country.  

Given the rock-solid nature of this man's disposition and bearing, I would think that if he does speak out, the effect could be absolutely electric - America's response could be like that of children being dressed-down by their father for the first time, ever. Everyone - including Trump - may be forced to recall an essential and eternal American reality....you don't f&^k with the FBI.  

Over to You...Fed?

The Markets are moving South.

Morgan Stanley has advised that unless rates fall, this market has hit its top. But has it?

We have been in mass monetary and fiscal stimulus mode for a decade. Central Banks have sparked massive worldwide bubbles in equities and housing, through a low interest rate policy that has no precedent in terms of its magnitude and how long it has been applied. With rising rates, these bubbles should all collapse.

Unless!! Unless Central Banks, especially the US Federal Reserve Board just starts to print money to buy stocks to keep equities markets high!

The 10-year bull market in stocks has been a direct result of Central Bank policy. The low rates fuelled stock buy backs that pumped prices to their highest levels ever. Wealthy people have never made so much money. 

But making money for rich people is not why we have these central banks. These banks are supposed to make policy to support employment with low inflation. There is no logical link between the price of shares and employment - if there were, then central banks would have applied the policy of buying shares to build the economy for the last century or so.

As with the ruinous policies of the last decade, Japan may be our precedent. The Japanese stock exchange dropped by 50% in 1990, and never recovered. The Japanese central bank intervened long ago to support the stock market and now owns 80% of all the ETFs and has at least a 5% stake in over 30 equities on the Nikkei stock exchange. 

Printing money to buy any assets is a completely false economy...there is no actual demand. Japan is not moving in a good direction.  When the central bank there owns the majority of all stocks - and all bonds, as it is about the only buyer of Japanese government bonds now - these markets should collapse as the fact that there are no real markets there, and these assets are worth almost nothing, will be clear to all. Anyone left in those markets will be wiped out.

And so, if the US Fed and other central banks do start buying shares as a result of falling markets - all while telling us hat this is all about helping the little guy - what will that tell us about who they really work for?

Answer....not you.

Sell Off!

Markets are down everywhere!

The commentators are FULL ON!  I have heard...

"This is the buying opportunity we have been waiting for..."

"Buy the utilities...safer for now."

"Today is a good day to take a break. We would be more inclined to buy here."

"This is the healthy pull-back we have been expecting..." (The commentator never said this before yesterday...)

"If you sold in 2009, you made a terrible mistake! Don't sell now!"

"The FED has gone crazy! There is no reason or the FED to raise rates!" 

Everywhere, we are being told to hold or buy more stocks. I see no one on the major business networks telling investors to sell or stay out.

Here is REALITY!

Excess leverage ALWAYS results in bubbles. We have had excess leverage, in the form of the lowest interest rates in human history, everywhere on Earth for a decade. 

Because of this excess leveraging, the stock markets and many housing markets in the world are now bubbles that will burst, AS BUBBLES ALWAYS DO. The markets were pumped for a while with buy-backs courtesy of the Trump tax cut. That money has dried up.

Rates should have started up again once we had significant growth, which was in 2010. We are now starting to pay the price for policy decisions over the last decade that rank as the most incompetent ever taken.

Bubbles collapse in a series of steps, marked by serious volatility.  The DOW could actually rise today. 

Hold on!



   

Hicks Has A Job!!

Hope Hicks has been hired by the news outfit at Fox as head of Public Relations!! 

This is a great job...why may she have been hired?

Hicks has admitted to telling lies for Trump. One would assume this means to the FBI. She is obviously a target of the Mueller Probe.

Hick's lawyers have been paid by the Republican Party up to now. The bill was up to half-a-million dollars as of the Spring of thus year.

But are they still paying?

As noted on this blog, after Manafort flipped, everyone's political calculus changed. It seems obvious that something dire is heading Trump's way, and I suspect that the Republicans, understanding that they may be on a sinking ship, have started abandoning that ship like the rats that may of them are.

I think this means they may no longer be paying Hick's legal bills. It is easy to figure out what happened after that.

Trump needs Hicks on side, which means she has to continue to have very good legal representation by lawyers who will work with his lawyers. These people are very expensive, so one would think that she got the job because Trump asked his Fox buddies to employ her so as to provide with her enough cash to pay for her legal representation. Of course, being "Fair and Balanced" they would oblige!

Ultimately, I think Hicks' new job is very bad news for Trump as it signals that his protectors in the Republican Party are now having second thoughts.

As I have also noted here, get used to Hope Hicks. Out of everyone in Trump's White House, she will be the survivor of this debacle. You will be hearing about her for the next generation, at least.

For The Defence?

Trump's lawyers have crowed about having joint defence agreements with upwards of thirty people, including people who have flipped, with those agreements continuing even after they flipped.

These agreements allow lawyers to share information and plan joint strategies. It allows Trump's lawyers to know what Mueller is asking those who have been interviewed by the FBI, and what he has asked of those persons who have flipped. 

This is unusual in criminal defence, where such agreements are usually kept private, and where they stop after someone flips. But it is 100% consistent for Trump, as he sees his lawyers as legal hit men. It seems obvious that his lawyers have these agreements, in part to coerce others into not cooperating, and even try to have influence over them after they flip. 

This is an exceptionally dangerous practice for the lawyers in question, as any attempt to influence witnesses after they flip could be seen as obstruction. They could end up on the stand themselves, as solicitor-client privilege may be no defence if the lawyer steps outside of their role as adviser, and becomes an active participant in witness tampering. 

Some of Trump's lawyers have moved on from his office - wise indeed. 

Would Giuliani still have that smug, know-it-all smile if he were to be answering questions while under oath, and on the stand at the trial of some of his clients? 

The Waiting is the Hardest Part

There is lots of contrary advice on-line these days - "how to play in this booming market and win, win, win!", versus "...this is almost the end"!

I usually ignore this chatter, and look at a few simple indicators which are provided for you to consider, again...

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/10/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-september-update

These indicators have indicated what they have indicated for a few years now.  They will eventually be proven 100% correct.

Definition of "patience" - "...the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, trouble, or suffering without getting angry or upset."

The guy who wrote that definition never bet against a bubble!

Kavanaugh and Mueller

Trump has called in the FBI to look into the Kavanaugh matter. This is a potentially dire development for Mueller's probe.

Trump's White House is directing the length of the Kavanaugh FBI probe, and even tried to direct who the FBI would be permitted to interview and what evidence it may consider in conducting its probe. It is obvious that Trump is testing out ability to manage the Mueller probe here. (Has Rosenstein effectively stepped aside, allowing Trump's minions to take over?)

No matter what may be the results of the Kavanaugh probe, expect this development to embolden Trump in his handling of the FBI, especially after the mid-term elections in November.

It may be time for Mueller to issue his first public statement, designed to make it politically impossible for Trump to attempt to shut down the investigation. 

"When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die." It is just about "go time" for Mueller.    

Kavanaugh

Powerful people are often subjected to a range of accusations, especially allegations of sexual misconduct decades after events supposedly occurred. Most are truthful, and some are not.

Women will often wait decades before coming forward with tales of abuse, with their need to come forward triggered by some person, place, thing or change in life that gives them the courage to speak out. Their stories are true.

When allegations of abuse are made, which allegedly occurred long ago, one simple approach is to wait for developments before rushing to judgement. Abusers usually have multiple victims, and when one of their victims comes out with their tale of abuse, this usually helps others to come forward as well.

And so, we need to wait a while. 

There are now three women accusing Kavanaugh of abuse now. He is on the bubble. The allegations range from assault to that he may have exposed himself. A few more, and he needs to be rejected. 

Note that he has a right to be assumed innocent until proven guilty...at a criminal trial. Some are mentioning this in reference to Kananaugh's situation. There will be no trial here, as this is not a criminal law process. But the comparison is misleading.

This is about the confirmation of a future justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. The standard for approval must go way beyond that of a base criminal law test. He must meet or beat a standard equivalent to the highest ethical and legal standards of any person going into public office in the USA.  

If I had a vote, we would be looking for a replacement.