Tuesday 31 December 2019

Predictions, 2020!

Welcome to the yearly "stab in the dark"!  


I am usually wrong, but occasionally interesting...here it goes...

Sports:

NHL - Stanley Cup:

Not Toronto. I predict the Washington Capitals for the second time in three years.

NFL:

Not the Patriots. The Buffalo Bills takes wing!

MLB:

Not the Blue Jays. I predict the Atlanta Braves. The Blue Jays will go 78 and 84.

NBA:

Not Toronto, but they will put up a respectable fight in the playoffs. I predict the LA Lakers.

Is Lebron the best ever?  

I say no, Wilt Chamberlain was the best basketball player who ever lived. No one else is even close.

Economics:

The decade-long free ride is almost over!

I know that I have said that for the last three years. When a recession looms, everyone works like crazy to make sure it doesn't happen - Central Banks reduce rates and print money; Governments borrow and spend like drunken sailors; bought prognosticators and opinion makers spew a cavalcade of spin designed to buoy confidence.  

Eventually, the tide turns. When it turns this time, the result will be an Epic Tsunami of Economic Despair. Enough of the unfortunate metaphors...  

Banking:  

I think a major world bank or banks failed last fall, prompting the REPO situation. 

More specifically, I think we will discover this year that a major bank or banks need a daily infusion of cash to stay afloat, but other bankers do not trust the collateral that they have to offer, so those other banks have stopped lending to them, even for 24 hours at a time. To keep lid on things, the US Fed has stepped in and provided support. 

Are even more banks waiting to fail? Is a new era of Zombie Banks about to start? Should we not just let banks fail? (Hmmm, are some of them quietly exposed to the fantasy that is Chinese shadow banking, and they are about to go down with that ship? Is the next great outrage?)

In 2020, central bankers will do what they can to mask the reality of a bank or banks on the ropes, as they can read history and they know that the failure of the Austrian bank Credit-Anstalt triggered the financial crisis that drove the Great Depression even deeper and brought the financial markets in Europe to a halt in 1931. 

We may not learn which bank or banks failed until after the US presidential election as central banks can print unlimited money to keep the corpses afloat.

Canada:

Inverted yield curves don't lie, and ours has been inverted for months. Canada is in a recession right now. We will see serious economic dislocation by the end of 2020, with the TSX down 20%.

Canadian banks will face their third debt downgrade in four years.

USA:

This is an election year, so all the stops will be pulled to make sure there is some semblance of economic growth - very tepid growth will continue, but the stock market will waver badly.

Trump will agree to a "do nothing" trade deal with China to get rid of tariffs and keep the economy going in the hopes of reelection. Specifically, he will drop tariffs in return for promises by China to punish Chinese nationals and companies that steal American IP.  Of course, they steal IP at the subtle behest and with the connivance of the Chinese government. It will be THE BEST TRADE DEAL EVER!

Three Amigos:

The Americans, Mexicans and Canadians will get their new trade deal through, providing some positive news!  Auto production will start to seep back North.

Europe:

A mild recession will grow worse...expect zero to negative growth. Markets will fall precipitously, only buoyed by new central bank buying of equities - we are all on the road to Japan, circa 1994!

Britain:

Britain will formally leave Europe on Jan 31, 2020, but almost all important details will be left to future negotiations - they will even stay with EU regulations! 

So Brexit will drag on...and on...and on, while head offices of European banks decamp for their home countries from London, costing the Brits tens of thousands of high-paying jobs. PM Johnson will scream "betrayal"!...but those jobs are as good as gone boys, and they ain't comin' back.

China:

They are in a recession now, but they will never admit it. 

Their corporate lending system is in shambles, but they will never admit it.

Their housing market is on the precipice, but they will never admit it.

They are facing widespread dissatisfaction and looming unrest amongst the working class, and they will never admit it.

Expect announced GDP growth of 6.2% for all of 2020, which is about right on target - of course. The press release is already written.

Welcome to the New Tyranny Economy...everything is going well, and if you ever say otherwise, you will be shipped off to the Gulag. 

Selected Stocks and Commodities:

Canadian Pot Stocks - will be down 90% from all-time highs.

NA Automakers - down 40% on the year.

Cdn Banks - down 20% on the year.

FANGS - down 10% on the year.

TESLA - down 20% on the year.

Oil - will hit $25 a barrel.

Gold - will hit $1,600 an ounce.

Copper - will drop below $2.00 a pound.

Politics:

USA 1!

OK, here it goes. I know you have been waiting for this!!!

Donald Trump will NOT lose the impeachment trial in the Senate!  

But there will be something like a real trial in the US Senate, including exceptionally damaging evidence from the likes of John Bolton. Trump will win a pyrrhic victory - no impeachment, but two Republicans will vote against him and two others will abstain.  Those Republicans who support him will come under enormous pressure, and will be barely able to explain why he was acquitted.

The effect of this, much like the recent article in Christianity Today, will be to slowly separate The Donald from The Swamp, and not in a good way.  

To date, his entire defence of almost everything has been to Tweet that the other guys are sleazy as well - which is true - so who cares? After this trial, everyone will have to admit that there was a quid pro quo - because there was such a thing.  Literally everyone will have to admit that he used his office to try to gain an advantage in the election.  

It will be obvious that Trump's malfeasance goes beyond hat the others have done - he is truly unique, and not in a good way. His approval rating will drop below 30%.

No amount of Hannity will cure this - his relentless lying about this issue will prove to be a fatal deceit.

USA 2!

Bloomberg will be elected the next President of the United States, defeating Donald Trump handily.

Bloomberg is only at about 6 - 7% in Democratic polls right now.  But he has the money to stay in no matter what, and in America he who has the most cash wins most of the time.  This is crucial - he can outspend Trump 10 - 1 personally, and Trump's friends in America's Aristocracy are also his friends.

The others?

Biden and Sandernista are both too old....even Trump is too old at age 73.

Warren is too Left, and America is not ready for an Indigenous President.

That guy whose name begins with "B" is a flash in the pan - people are parking their votes with him until they see a real option.

Bloomberg will rocket after Iowa. He is skipping it because he knows he doesn't need it. He knows that he has New York and California locked.

More money...more social media presence (he actually OWNS it)...more real experience, and a middle of the road approach that America yearns for.  He has been preparing for this for years.

Trump can't win versus Bloomberg. He will resist leaving office. He will be arrested within 30 days of leaving relating to his ancient dealings in NYC.

North Korea:

The Rocketman will launch missiles...he will explode bombs...he will trade barbs. The USA and the world will ramp up sanctions, so Rocketman's people will starve, even more.  

Trump will shelve plans for a Trump Tower Pyongyang.

South China Sea:

China will need a diversion in 2020 from Hong Kong and the mass of internal problems that will emerge during the year. Expect a shooting incident in the South China Sea, likely between the People's Liberation Army Navy, and a second rate navy, like that of The Philippines. This will be front page news for months...the exact diversion the CCP leadership needs.

Hong Kong:

Expect a crack down, including PLA soldiers in the streets and mass arrests and deportations to the Mainland in 2020. The CCP does not does not suffer fools gracefully. Understand - to stay in power, the CCP would shoot EVERYONE.

Europe:

Will very obviously move closer to Putinland. This could come in the form of a deal on Crimea involving a supervised referendum, and the forced sale of Crimea to Russia by Ukraine when Russia wins. Ukraine will be left to rot as Europe pursues Russian resources now that the anti-Russian Britain has bailed on the continent.

Italy:

Will threaten Italexit - Europe will loosen budget requirements.  Italy will stay.

Britain:

Brexit will happen.  A new Scottish referendum is now inevitable. It will not happen in 2020, but it will become obvious this year that Scotland will be leaving he Union...and likely Northern Ireland as well.

France:

There will be strikes....lots of strikes.

Germany:

Expect a big lurch Right...yes, THAT Right.

Africa:

Expect anti-Chinese disturbances, as populations become alarmed at the degree to which their governments have sold them out to China's new imperial ambitions.  

Asia:

India and Pakistan will get into a very short shooting war. Both will win, as they always do.

Crime! A new category!

Epstein - Filthy Bill; The Prince; Many Others:

Bill Clinton will be tied to Epstein and his girls - like Andrew before him, will retire from public life. 

All the women who are coming forward to police right now will be paid to stay silent.  In the end, no one will be charged with anything.  

"...and the beat goes on..."

Treason:

Expect charges against selected Cambridge Analytica employees and related scum, as Western States finally understand that Russia is fighting a war against them via the Internet and Social Media, and they are using traitors in our midst to do it. Britain will take the lead as those political leaders who have benefited the most from the treason seek to distance themselves from it by seeing off their stooges. 

Finance Crimes:

The Next Great Scam will be revealed!  

Every recession appears to involve the revelation that financial institutions have been involved in some sort of high crime and misdemeanours!  

Hmmm....are Western banks involved in the Chinese shadow lending market, supplying government insured deposits into that market, taking massive "presents" under the table from charlatans for their efforts?  

I have no idea, but the Next Great Scam will likely be something like that.

Pop Culture:

The Rolling Stones will officially retire.

Disco will make a comeback, again.

Bill Murray will win an Oscar.

Thursday 26 December 2019

Predictions, 2019, Revisited!

How did I do!!??  Usually, quite badly...let's see.

Results of Fearless Predictions for 2019!
  
Sports:

Stanley Cup – Toronto Maple Leafs will lose to the Nashville Predators in 6 games. 

Wrong - St. Louis!

World Series – Red Sox; they are just too strong.

Wrong - Washington Nationals!

Super Bowl – Patriots, for the last time for 20 years.

Right! But not the Patriots in 2020...

Blue Jays – Will go 70 - 92, with the worst ERA in the league. Shapiro and Atkins will be fired.

Close Enough! They went 67-95...Shapiro and Atkins have inexplicably held on.

Montreal – Now that the Rays’ new stadium quest in Florida is at an end, Montreal will be advised that it will get the Rays as the new Expos, contingent on buying out the Rays’ existing lease and building a new stadium. With a federal election pending, Trudeau will backstop the new stadium with federal funds. The stadium will finally cost $2.8 Billion, up from an originally-estimated price of $400 Million - the Montreal Mob will have a new “happy time.” The Expos will “play ball” again in Montreal in 2021 in the new “Trudeau Dome”.

Wrong - see, 2024....

Markets/Stocks:

DOW – Will drop to 12,000 by Spring, 2019.

Wrong - see prediction, 2020!!

S&P 500 – Will drop to 1,200 by Spring, 2019.

Wrong - see prediction, 2020!!

Pot Stocks – WEED will be at $5 a share by the anniversary of legalization in Canada. Almost all of these stocks will be down dramatically, and there will be a take-over and merger frenzy. Some of the name-brand companies will be bankrupt by end of 2019. A few will be exposed as criminal Ponzi schemes, with links to organized crime and with their managers/operators having milked them for all available cash.

Close Enough! WEED did hit about $18 a share at one point...down from a high of about $70 a share. It has no profits - when people recognize that we are already in a recession, it will collapse.

GOLD! – Will be $1,500 by Spring, 2019.

Right! Gold topped $1,500 in August...I was off by three months.

Cdn Banks – Expect a third debt downgrade in just over three years by Moody’s by Spring, 2019.

Wrong - see 2020 Predictions.

International Personalities:

Trump – In face of impeachment talk by senior Republicans following final Mueller indictments of his son and son-in-law, will resign for “medical reasons” by Spring, 2019. President Pence will immediately pardon him of any and all crimes he may have ever committed, as well as pardoning all of his relatives.

Sadly Wrong - He was impeached by the House...see 2020 Predictions!

Hillary Clinton – Will announce a third run at the US Presidency for 2020.

Happily Wrong - Bloomberg makes this impossible.  

Julian Assange – Will be in a US prison by Spring, 2019.  WikiLeaks will respond with a deluge of exceptionally embarrassing information about the private lives of many world leaders. Expect at least five world leaders to resign in disgrace shortly after his arrest…is Mr. Macron among them?

Wrong - Will find his way to the USA, soon. The leaks will follow....we now know he is a Russian stooge.

Theresa May – Will be out office following a devastating electoral defeat for her Conservative Party that sees them reduced to third party status by Spring, 2019.  

Wrong - She is out of power, but not the Mop-Topped Mad Man!

Rolling Stones – Will tour again!

Right - Of course!

International Politics:

North Korea – Will explode another nuclear weapon in 2019.  The USA, Russia and China will set aside differences and agree on an embargo that forces North Korea to actually give up its nuclear program, which it will do when the USA undertakes to never put nukes in South Korea again. 

Wrong - Rocketman has started launching missiles again...a nuke test is sure to follow.

Nuclear Weapons – The USA, China and Russia tentatively agree to a new short-range nuclear weapons treaty. Pakistan and India enter talks to limit their arsenals and put them under international supervision, partially agreeing to come under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel will remain outside.

Sadly Wrong - Nuclear Disarmament is going in the opposite direction.  START is reviewed this year...will it become STALLED?

Iran – Will be convulsed by mass demonstrations – viciously suppressed.

Right - Underway right about now.

China - Will be convulsed by mass demonstrations – viciously suppressed.

Mostly Right - Mass demonstrations are in Hong Kong - they can't just kill people there...yet.

Syria – Will hammer out a peace deal with the help of Russia and Turkey, resulting in the end of the civil war. Over 200,000 people will return home.

Sadly Wrong - With the USA leaving with its tails between its legs and Turkey getting the Kurds out of the way, the stage is set for a "peace" deal. Basically, the West lost. But say hello to Trump Tower, Moscow!

Yemen – Will hammer out a peace deal as massive pressure is brought to bear on Saudi Arabia by the UN and that country’s allies. Aid will flow in saving hundreds of thousands of lives.

Sadly Wrong - A peace deal was struck to end the violence in Southern Yemen so the government can concentrate on more killing in the North.

Brexit – Will be stopped following its mass rejection in a referendum, 61% to 39%, in late March, 2019. The Liberal Democrats will take power in the subsequent election, as Conservative Euro-sceptics move to UKIP following the defeat of Brexit, thereby starving the Conservatives of support; and moderate Labourites stay home in the face of Corbin’s extremism, thereby starving Labour of support. The Lib Dems will run a successful minority government for two years, then will win a majority in 2021 primarily at the expense of the Conservatives, who will not win government again for a generation.

Tragically Wrong - 57.5% of Brits voted for parties opposed to the Conservative version of Brexit, but Corbyn's insanity ensured Brexit will happen. Russia's best days in Europe since Stalin, and the campaign in Eastern European 1944-45.  Hmmm...maybe Corbyn did win after all!?

Italy – Will have a referendum on Italexit, which will approve leaving the EU by a wide majority. Italy will remain in the Europe Union, but will get a better budget deal.

Wrong - Not yet. With Brexit now real, this is next.

Europe – Will see Far Right-Wing parties make significant electoral gains in 2019 (Netherlands and perhaps Belgium.)

Right - Best days in Europe for Fascists since Hitler.

Economics: 

Recession – Expect a 3% pull-back in GDP in the Western countries, and an average of over 10% unemployment by the end of the year. Many international banking institutions will be on the brink of failure. Many US multi-national corporations will be on the ropes – especially GE, GM and Ford.

Wrong - Slowdown is starting....stay tuned.

Canadian Housing – Price drop of 15% in Toronto and Vancouver by the end of the year….with prices accelerating down as the year ends.

Wrong - Prices down in Vancouver 5.2%, but still climbing elsewhere.

Oil – Prices will hit $30 a barrel.

Wrong - Price hit a low was $46.50 a barrel - Saudis have stopped some production to support the price. If this keeps up, frackers in the USA will own the entire market!

China – Expect recession and strikes and local revolts against the Communist government – viciously suppressed.

Wrong - Would they ever admit that they were in a recession?

Bailout – The US Fed will hand $2 Trillion to US Banks to make sure of “liquidity” in the system. Bank CEOs will double their bonuses.

Partially Right - US Fed is bailing out the REPO market - what if there was a financial crisis, and no one talked about it? Which major bank has failed and is being kept on life support?

Bail-In – Banks in selected countries – maybe Cyprus again and maybe smaller European countries - will be allowed to convert the deposits of individuals and corporations to their own use as they face financial ruin in the face of recession, as a form of “bail-in”. This will later be tried in Germany and China, and will lead to mass protests and civil unrest.  Bankers and leaders worldwide will stop the practice, and will go back to just printing money to solve economic crises, also known as “Bail-in by Devaluation.”

Wrong - Stay Tuned.

QE/Buy-Backs – The US Fed will buy $1 trillion in US stocks in order to “support employment” – in spite of the fact that buying equities does not do this. By the end of 2019, the US Fed will be the largest holder of US equities in the world. US markets will still fall about 50%.

Wrong - Would they tell us if they started buying stock through surrogates? Is there a link between the Fed and record stock buy-backs?

Friday 20 December 2019

Impeachment,,,,Maybe?

Much discussion in the office about IMPEACHMENT yesterday!

I held to my view - the Republicans will never convict Trump.

Another person was quite persuasive - "But they can't be seen to run a kangaroo court in the eyes of the American people - they have to run a real trial, and if they do, how do they escape the fact that he actually is guilty?"

A very good point.

Mitch McConnell said yesterday that the way that the Democrats ran the enquiry in the House of Representatives essentially indicts them!?  This is a propaganda line that will have no bearing on the trial, which will be based on evidence and summations based on that evidence. This trial will be real.

Two thoughts...

Bolten has never testified. He apparently expressed extreme distaste for Giuliani's subterranean foreign policy, which was run when he was National Security Advisor. He will testify this time - if he says he thought that there was a "quid pro quo", then all bets are off.

The opinion polls regarding impeachment are all over the place...these are the only things the Republicans really care about. If they start to solidly favour impeachment as the trial proceeds, Trump will be in very deep trouble.  






Thursday 19 December 2019

Impeachment!...OK?

He has been impeached!

There is NO QUESTION that he abused his powers via a sought-after quid pro quo from Ukraine.

There is NO QUESTION that he Obstructed Congress.

If you think otherwise, just read the Executive Summary from the House of Representatives that outlined their investigation - the evidence is clear...and the charge of obstruction is even admitted by Trump who brags that he did not obey subpoenas!

Trump would not survive a real criminal trial. But this will be a political trial. And so, there is NO QUESTION that his Republican lackeys in the Senate will find him "Not Guilty" of all charges.

In the next few weeks Trump will seek to divide America like no President before him. 

The spectre of impeachment hurts him politically, as America is still loosely associated with the concept of "Rule of Law".  Consequently, expect all manner of borderline insane accusations to be levelled against his political opponents. In the era of The Big Lie, The Biggest Liar is about to raise his game to a new level...Hannity is taking notes, ready to help.

In making his response, Trump is about to make a massive mistake. He will use whatever ammunition he has in reserve to destroy Biden, but in doing so, he will clear the path for Bloomberg...a guy he can't beat.



Sunday 15 December 2019

Brexit!...End of an Era

So it is decided...everyone played their role to a tee.

Johnson led the Tories to an historic romp, not only of Labour and the anti-Brexit British, but also and more importantly, he thrashed to death the Europhile arm of the British Conservative Party.  

The internecine battle between the Europhiles and Eurosceptics in that party was one main driver behind Brexit; that battle has been underway for almost fifty years. It is now over.

With the Europhiles utterly destroyed, Britain will leave Europe, and at the same time, the Eurosceptics will be free to rebuild the Conservative Party and even the country based on a cult of unabashed ENGLISH nationalism! 

Huzzah! What could possibly go wrong!??

Well, for one, most Scots don't give one tot or twittle for the English. And the rational economic move for the Northern Irish is to join the Republic to the South in order to maintain access to the massive market that is Europe....it may be that only Boris Johnson could have united Ireland! 

The lasting effect of this Brexit victory will be that the "UK" may become the "K"....less the "U"....except for Wales.     

Corbyn also played his role, perfectly. 

Like Stalin before him, who faced the possibility of 15 million dead people from starvation in Ukraine from collectivization policies in the early 1930's, and like Mao who faced the prospect of millions more dead from starvation as a result of the disaster that was his first Five Year Plan in the late 1950's, HE NEVER WAVERED! 

For Corbyn, it was and always will be Socialism or BUST! It was bust...his party and the country lost...both his orthodoxy and Corbyn personally will be OK.

Know that Corbyn well understood that his refusal to ever bend or break in his slavish adherence to socialist orthodoxy meant that normal Britons had a stark choice in the election last week - the unknown that is Brexit, versus that of becoming the Soviet Union circa 1973. They knew what the second choice meant, and opted instead for a leap into the unknown. Were the pubs open on voting day? I expect they did a booming business.

And, of course, Putin played his role as well.  

The massive manipulation of social media by Russia was a primary reason why the first Brexit referendum was a success - the disreputable perps at Cambridge Analytica should have been charged with treason. I think they may still face such a plight, as Johnson and Putin no longer need them, and Johnson will need to make a show of distancing himself from this utter scum. 

Last week, Putin not only oversaw the start of the break up of Europe, but he may also get the break up of the United Kingdom as well! 

Huzzah, indeed!

But is this Master of Disaster redoing his sums? 

A Europe without Britain could open the possibility of a rapprochement that could see the complete abandonment of Ukraine to Russia by Europe in return for access the oil and resources of Russia. Surely the most anti-Russian country on or near the continent - outside of those countries actually bordering Russia - is Britain. With that country out of Europe and perhaps about to be consigned to the dustbin of history, anything may be possible between Europe and Russia.

And so, December 12, 2019, was a great day for Johnson and Eurosceptics...

....but it was an AMAZING day for Putin and Russia!!!



Image result for end of an era cartoon

Tuesday 10 December 2019

Deep State, Debunked

Please see here....

The Guardian = one of the few real news sources left.  Ignore Fox and CNN....go to The Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/dec/09/fbi-trump-russia-investigation-ig-report

"The investigation, ultimately taken over by the special counsel Robert Mueller, started in July 2016 after the FBI learned that George Papadopoulos, a former Trump aide, had been saying before it was publicly known that Russia possessed dirt on Clinton in the form of hacked emails....It was this, not the so-called “Steele dossier”, that was the trigger."
That dossier was used to support FISA warrants, and was overstated by the FBI.  The rank and file in the FBI thought that dossier was crap - the persons not rejecting it were Comey and McCabe. As noted here before, Comey was manifestly incompetent, and was properly fired by Trump.
Barr is still conducting his own investigation. It will go something like this...a shameless parroting of Trump by Barr, who is himself a disgrace as AG...
It’s (the FBI investigation into Russian meddling) a disgrace what’s happened with respect to the things that were done to our country,” Trump said at the White House. “It should never again happen to another president. It is incredible, far worse than I ever thought possible, and it’s an embarrassment to our country, it’s dishonest.”
To come...
Trump tried to get the President of Ukraine to announce that Ukraine was conducting an investigation into who may have stolen the Clinton e-mails in 2016 in order to maintain the total fiction and Big Lie that it was Ukraine that interfered in the presidential election, not Russia.  
Please think about this dear readers...why would he do that?
  

Sunday 1 December 2019

WW2 Aircraft Design Genius and Folly

My most read blog is one about The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of WW2 fighter aircraft. Here it is...

https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2017/07/world-war-two-fighter-planes-good-bad.html


This blog is about the esthetics in aircraft design; basically, what aircraft looked great, and which ones cause aircraft enthusiasts to ask "What were they thinking?"  

To qualify for inclusion here, the aircraft must have been used for any type of mission, other than training in WW2. 

Let's start with The Truly Ugly first.

France loses its mind.

The French are typically known for their design prowess - they design and build beautiful buildings, landscapes, and of course, they are at the pinnacle of the fine arts. In the 1930's however, they appear to have lost their touch. Here are two bombers that illustrate the point...

The Bloch MB 200



Image result for bloch mb 200 bomber

An aircraft only a mother could love!

Angular, with multiple turrets seemingly slapped on as an afterthought, this was an unbecoming design failure. With a top speed of 177 MPH, and only three defensive machine guns, it was slow and vulnerable. 

The MB 200 was introduced into service in 1935, which was the same year that the Americans tested this for the first time.


The B-17, which it its first version topped out at 320 MPH with six defensive machine guns.


The main French heavy bomber at the start of the war was this...


The Farman F 220



Image result for farman f220

Wow! It is hard to know where to start. 


Four engines in tandem slung under the wings means reducing drag while also adding drag from the bracings that have to hold the engines in place! The same angular design, with turrets again slapped on almost as an afterthought. This is the MB 200's big brother!  


With a maximum speed of 220 MPH, and only three medium machines guns for defence, it was a sitting duck and was shot down in droves by German fighter pilots.


The French also designed a carrier-based dive bomber that almost defies description.


Loire-Nieuport LN 410



Image result for ln 410 loire

What can be said about this monstrosity? Not much, but perhaps by comparing to what other countries were building at the same time it will again prove possible to show what was possible. Here is the American Vought Vindicator naval dive bomber, in service at the same time as the LN 410.



Image result for vought vindicator

The Vindicator, like most American aircraft, looked very business-like. At 250 MPH and capable of carrying a 1,000 pound bomb load, it was 11 MPH faster than the LN 410, and carried more than twice the offensive load. The French bought Vidicators from the Americans, and both LN 410s and Vindicators were used in the Battle of France, with heavy losses.


Now, let's look at the Brits.


What The British Prefer to Forget 


If the French had some aesthetic challenges in bomber design, the British may take the proverbial cake for design confusion and sheer ugliness. Nothing demonstrates this better than this aircraft, which was used at night in the Battle of Britain when it dropped aerial mines in the path of German bombers.


The Handley Page Heyford



Image result for handley page 1930s bomber

Yes, this is a real aircraft. The British used this as their primary heavy bomber through the mid-1930's. 

At the time it entered into RAF service, the Russians had already been using these for two years...


The TB-3...10 MPH faster than the Heyford, with six to eight defensive machine guns to the Heyford's three. The key here is the use of a single monoplane wing! The TB-3 was a harbinger of things to come in aircraft design, while the Heyford was a shockingly ungainly salute to aircraft design as understood twenty years prior.

The British also build a fighter aircraft that defies any attempt to explain how it ever got off the drawing board.

The Blackburn Roc

Were they trying to fail? 

Fighter aircraft are supposed to be sleek, deadly-looking, and imposing. This aircraft was a cobbled-together mess. In fact, it was actually a Blackburn Skua dive bomber with a power-operated gun turret faired in behind the pilot. This limited its top speed to 223 MPH at a time when most German bombers coming into service could easily top 240 MPH. It also has no forward firing guns. It's operational service was limited to combat air patrols over a few RN carriers early in the war, after which it was taken out of service.

And, yet again from the Brits, one of the ugliest carrier-based aircraft of all time.

The Fairey Barracuda


This aircraft looks a bit like the Pelicans I used to watch whenever my family went to Florida on vacation in the 1970s! It was just shockingly ugly!  

With a top speed of 240 MPH and two medium machine guns for defence, it needed a fighter escort everywhere it went. It carried a useful bomb and torpedo load of up to 1,800 pounds. 

However, the Barracuda was almost entirely inferior to America's primary carrier-based bomber and torpedo aircraft that was introduced into service a year before the Barracuda, namely the Grumman Avenger, which was 35 MPH faster, and carried heavier defensive and offensive armament. It also looked better!


Ok, this pains me, but let's look at Italy...

Italy Drops the Ball

As will be seen in the section on design beauty below, the Italians are mostly unequalled when it comes to designing truly beautiful aircraft. But they do make mistakes...

Breda Ba.65


Hideous! 

The pilot sits behind an engine mount and windscreen that look like they were slapped by a child forcing parts of a model airplane together that simply didn't fit, not realizing that they actually came from a completely different model! It was a serviceable aircraft, with a decent 270 MPH top speed, and adequate armament - but it stands in very stark contrast to the design genius shown by the Italians elsewhere. 

OK....time to switch gears. Here are some examples of what was actually possible in aircraft design 75 years ago. 

Let's start with Italy.  

Viva Italia!


Is this the most beautiful aircraft of WW2?  Coming from the country that gives us Ferraris, it is just possible.


Macci 205



Related image


This looks like what a fighter aircraft should look like...fast, sleek, powerful. And this...


Fiat G.55



Image result for fiat g55


Again, there is nothing you can say that is negative about this design....it looks very similar to the Macci 205.  

These two aircraft were produced in small numbers owing to Italy leaving the war in July, 1943. Nonetheless, the Germans used as many of these aircraft as they could get their hands on, finding them competitive with the best the Allies had to offer.


USA! USA!


World War 2 saw the Americans take the lead in aircraft design from the Europeans - a lead it has not relinquished since. Most of their designs put function over form - they didn't look especially great, but they worked. A few of their designs were simply amazing. Here is the first...


P-38 Lightening



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This aircraft oozed power. It was very quick, and dove so fast that pilots had trouble pulling out as they touched the speed of sound.  It carried a bomber-size bomb load and had tremendous range. America's two highest scoring pilots of WW2 both flew this aircraft. In an era which was dominated by single-engined fighter aircraft, this design was simply amazing.

P-51 Mustang







It may be that no aircraft has ever better combined function with visual appeal. American airmen flying this beautiful aircraft delivered the coup de gras to the Luftwaffe over France and German in 1944. It is the iconic American military aircraft of all time.

The Germans also designed some stunning and menacing aircraft.

The Germans Are Coming

Like the Americans, most German designed were functional, not beautiful. There were exceptions.

Focke-Wulf TA 152

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This aircraft is a development of the earlier FW-190, and was designed as a high altitude interceptor to take on American bomber aircraft over German airspace. It was built in very small numbers, but it has exceptional performance - likely the finest piston-engined aircraft developed during the war. 

ME 262

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No one knew how to design a jet aircraft when the German engineers and designers took stab at it in designing the Messerschmitt ME 262 in the early 1940s.  They produced a masterpiece. 

The swept-wing design used by the Germans was revolutionary - Western designed would not stop designing straight-wing jet aircraft for at least five years after the war.  This aircraft also had a massive armament - 4 x 30 mm cannons in the nose. There is no debate that this was the finest fighter aircraft produced during the war. It was also an aesthetic triumph. 

Germany and Italy had an ally which also had a flair for design.

Banzai!

Japan produced more beautiful aircraft than all other major combatants combined. Here are just a few.

Nakajima KI-84

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You will notice by now that design excellence required simplicity,  a clean design unencumbered by filter extensions etc., and a big engine to exude power - a race car in the sky.  The Ki 84 Hayate (Gale) illustrated all of these characteristics. It was competitive with the best aircraft on both sides in the war.

Mitsubishi Ki-46 




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This Japanese reconnaissance aircraft was considered a design masterpiece, and was so admired that the Germans actually considered buying a licence from the Japanese to build it and use it in the European theatre of operations. It was exceptionally fast, and was essentially invulnerable until the last few years of the war simply because the Allies did not have fighter aircraft that were fast enough to catch it. 

The French Redeem Themselves

The French designed some total monstrosities in the early 1930's, but by the end of that decade they had their design mojo back.

Dewoitine D.520




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The finest fighter aircraft produced in France during the war was competitive with any aircraft in the world when it was accepted into service in 1940. It was fast and hard-hitting. It was a pleasure to look at and stands in stark contrast from a design perspective to the main French fighter in use at the start of the war, the Morane-Saulnier MS.406...pudgy and squat...




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Breguet 695

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Image result for breguet 695

The same country that produced he Bloch and Amiot above also produced this small attach aircraft. Gone were the slab sides and ungainly turrets.  The Breguet 695 was fast and effective...but only available in tiny numbers when the Germans overran France in May and June, 1940.

The Russians Are Coming, Too!

The TB-3 noted above was an ugly aircraft. The Russians designed and built workmanlike aircraft, designed for simplicity in the expectation that they would last mere hours in combat.

One exception was this...

Yakolev 3



This was a beautiful but deadly aircraft. After it was introduced to combat in 1944, the Germans warned Luftwaffe fighter pilots to never try to fight this plane below 15,000 feet as it was simply too dominant.  It did everything right - it was fast, manoeuvrable, it could climb and roll.  It was Russia's design triumph.

The British Masterpieces

This plane was a triumph of ingenuity - it was designed on the sole initiative of the de Havilland company, not as a result of an official government request.

de Havilland Mosquito

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This aircraft started a a bomber. It was so fast that it had no defensive armament as no German fighter could catch it. It was evolved into a night fighter and attack aircraft, and was effective even into the jet age. It was also visually stunning...

And then there was this aircraft.

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The most beautiful aircraft ever?  

I don't know, but the Supermarine Spitfire Mk 2 is certainly the most beautiful aircraft that the British ever produced.  

For context, consider that the Blackburn Roc noted above was introduced into service four years after the Spitfire. 
With this example of design brilliance in existence...

...."What were they thinking!?"