Predictions, 2020!

Welcome to the yearly "stab in the dark"!  

I am usually wrong, but occasionally interesting...here it goes...

Sports:

NHL - Stanley Cup:

Not Toronto. I predict the Washington Capitals for the second time in three years.

NFL:

Not the Patriots. The Buffalo Bills takes wing!

MLB:

Not the Blue Jays. I predict the Atlanta Braves. The Blue Jays will go 78 and 84.

NBA:

Not Toronto, but they will put up a respectable fight in the playoffs. I predict the LA Lakers.

Is Lebron the best ever?  

I say no, Wilt Chamberlain was the best basketball player who ever lived. No one else is even close.

Economics:

The decade-long free ride is almost over!

I know that I have said that for the last three years. When a recession looms, everyone works like crazy to make sure it doesn't happen - Central Banks reduce rates and print money; Governments borrow and spend like drunken sailors; bought prognosticators and opinion makers spew a cavalcade of spin designed to buoy confidence.  

Eventually, the tide turns. When it turns this time, the result will be an Epic Tsunami of Economic Despair. Enough of the unfortunate metaphors...  

Banking:  

I think a major world bank or banks failed last fall, prompting the REPO situation. 

More specifically, I think we will discover this year that a major bank or banks need a daily infusion of cash to stay afloat, but other bankers do not trust the collateral that they have to offer, so those other banks have stopped lending to them, even for 24 hours at a time. To keep lid on things, the US Fed has stepped in and provided support. 

Are even more banks waiting to fail? Is a new era of Zombie Banks about to start? Should we not just let banks fail? (Hmmm, are some of them quietly exposed to the fantasy that is Chinese shadow banking, and they are about to go down with that ship? Is the next great outrage?)

In 2020, central bankers will do what they can to mask the reality of a bank or banks on the ropes, as they can read history and they know that the failure of the Austrian bank Credit-Anstalt triggered the financial crisis that drove the Great Depression even deeper and brought the financial markets in Europe to a halt in 1931. 

We may not learn which bank or banks failed until after the US presidential election as central banks can print unlimited money to keep the corpses afloat.

Canada:

Inverted yield curves don't lie, and ours has been inverted for months. Canada is in a recession right now. We will see serious economic dislocation by the end of 2020, with the TSX down 20%.

Canadian banks will face their third debt downgrade in four years.

USA:

This is an election year, so all the stops will be pulled to make sure there is some semblance of economic growth - very tepid growth will continue, but the stock market will waver badly.

Trump will agree to a "do nothing" trade deal with China to get rid of tariffs and keep the economy going in the hopes of reelection. Specifically, he will drop tariffs in return for promises by China to punish Chinese nationals and companies that steal American IP.  Of course, they steal IP at the subtle behest and with the connivance of the Chinese government. It will be THE BEST TRADE DEAL EVER!

Three Amigos:

The Americans, Mexicans and Canadians will get their new trade deal through, providing some positive news!  Auto production will start to seep back North.

Europe:

A mild recession will grow worse...expect zero to negative growth. Markets will fall precipitously, only buoyed by new central bank buying of equities - we are all on the road to Japan, circa 1994!

Britain:

Britain will formally leave Europe on Jan 31, 2020, but almost all important details will be left to future negotiations - they will even stay with EU regulations! 

So Brexit will drag on...and on...and on, while head offices of European banks decamp for their home countries from London, costing the Brits tens of thousands of high-paying jobs. PM Johnson will scream "betrayal"!...but those jobs are as good as gone boys, and they ain't comin' back.

China:

They are in a recession now, but they will never admit it. 

Their corporate lending system is in shambles, but they will never admit it.

Their housing market is on the precipice, but they will never admit it.

They are facing widespread dissatisfaction and looming unrest amongst the working class, and they will never admit it.

Expect announced GDP growth of 6.2% for all of 2020, which is about right on target - of course. The press release is already written.

Welcome to the New Tyranny Economy...everything is going well, and if you ever say otherwise, you will be shipped off to the Gulag. 

Selected Stocks and Commodities:

Canadian Pot Stocks - will be down 90% from all-time highs.

NA Automakers - down 40% on the year.

Cdn Banks - down 20% on the year.

FANGS - down 10% on the year.

TESLA - down 20% on the year.

Oil - will hit $25 a barrel.

Gold - will hit $1,600 an ounce.

Copper - will drop below $2.00 a pound.

Politics:

USA 1!

OK, here it goes. I know you have been waiting for this!!!

Donald Trump will NOT lose the impeachment trial in the Senate!  

But there will be something like a real trial in the US Senate, including exceptionally damaging evidence from the likes of John Bolton. Trump will win a pyrrhic victory - no impeachment, but two Republicans will vote against him and two others will abstain.  Those Republicans who support him will come under enormous pressure, and will be barely able to explain why he was acquitted.

The effect of this, much like the recent article in Christianity Today, will be to slowly separate The Donald from The Swamp, and not in a good way.  

To date, his entire defence of almost everything has been to Tweet that the other guys are sleazy as well - which is true - so who cares? After this trial, everyone will have to admit that there was a quid pro quo - because there was such a thing.  Literally everyone will have to admit that he used his office to try to gain an advantage in the election.  

It will be obvious that Trump's malfeasance goes beyond hat the others have done - he is truly unique, and not in a good way. His approval rating will drop below 30%.

No amount of Hannity will cure this - his relentless lying about this issue will prove to be a fatal deceit.

USA 2!

Bloomberg will be elected the next President of the United States, defeating Donald Trump handily.

Bloomberg is only at about 6 - 7% in Democratic polls right now.  But he has the money to stay in no matter what, and in America he who has the most cash wins most of the time.  This is crucial - he can outspend Trump 10 - 1 personally, and Trump's friends in America's Aristocracy are also his friends.

The others?

Biden and Sandernista are both too old....even Trump is too old at age 73.

Warren is too Left, and America is not ready for an Indigenous President.

That guy whose name begins with "B" is a flash in the pan - people are parking their votes with him until they see a real option.

Bloomberg will rocket after Iowa. He is skipping it because he knows he doesn't need it. He knows that he has New York and California locked.

More money...more social media presence (he actually OWNS it)...more real experience, and a middle of the road approach that America yearns for.  He has been preparing for this for years.

Trump can't win versus Bloomberg. He will resist leaving office. He will be arrested within 30 days of leaving relating to his ancient dealings in NYC.

North Korea:

The Rocketman will launch missiles...he will explode bombs...he will trade barbs. The USA and the world will ramp up sanctions, so Rocketman's people will starve, even more.  

Trump will shelve plans for a Trump Tower Pyongyang.

South China Sea:

China will need a diversion in 2020 from Hong Kong and the mass of internal problems that will emerge during the year. Expect a shooting incident in the South China Sea, likely between the People's Liberation Army Navy, and a second rate navy, like that of The Philippines. This will be front page news for months...the exact diversion the CCP leadership needs.

Hong Kong:

Expect a crack down, including PLA soldiers in the streets and mass arrests and deportations to the Mainland in 2020. The CCP does not does not suffer fools gracefully. Understand - to stay in power, the CCP would shoot EVERYONE.

Europe:

Will very obviously move closer to Putinland. This could come in the form of a deal on Crimea involving a supervised referendum, and the forced sale of Crimea to Russia by Ukraine when Russia wins. Ukraine will be left to rot as Europe pursues Russian resources now that the anti-Russian Britain has bailed on the continent.

Italy:

Will threaten Italexit - Europe will loosen budget requirements.  Italy will stay.

Britain:

Brexit will happen.  A new Scottish referendum is now inevitable. It will not happen in 2020, but it will become obvious this year that Scotland will be leaving he Union...and likely Northern Ireland as well.

France:

There will be strikes....lots of strikes.

Germany:

Expect a big lurch Right...yes, THAT Right.

Africa:

Expect anti-Chinese disturbances, as populations become alarmed at the degree to which their governments have sold them out to China's new imperial ambitions.  

Asia:

India and Pakistan will get into a very short shooting war. Both will win, as they always do.

Crime! A new category!

Epstein - Filthy Bill; The Prince; Many Others:

Bill Clinton will be tied to Epstein and his girls - like Andrew before him, will retire from public life. 

All the women who are coming forward to police right now will be paid to stay silent.  In the end, no one will be charged with anything.  

"...and the beat goes on..."

Treason:

Expect charges against selected Cambridge Analytica employees and related scum, as Western States finally understand that Russia is fighting a war against them via the Internet and Social Media, and they are using traitors in our midst to do it. Britain will take the lead as those political leaders who have benefited the most from the treason seek to distance themselves from it by seeing off their stooges. 

Finance Crimes:

The Next Great Scam will be revealed!  

Every recession appears to involve the revelation that financial institutions have been involved in some sort of high crime and misdemeanours!  

Hmmm....are Western banks involved in the Chinese shadow lending market, supplying government insured deposits into that market, taking massive "presents" under the table from charlatans for their efforts?  

I have no idea, but the Next Great Scam will likely be something like that.

Pop Culture:

The Rolling Stones will officially retire.

Disco will make a comeback, again.

Bill Murray will win an Oscar.