Monday 16 March 2020

COVID 19 and the Stock Markets

COVID 19 is causing a massive world-wide recession. 

We don't get GDP numbers until well after the time period that these numbers cover has ended, so the numbers for GDP during the pandemic are not available yet. When they are published, they will cause the stock markets world-wide to essentially collapse.

The world's central banks have been cutting rates to combat this impending recession, but it takes months for such cuts to have any effect even on a normally-functioning economy. This is not a normally-functioning economy. 

The central bankers should have just left rates where they were, because there will be no one to borrow in this pandemic - they cut rates for consumers who will not be spending, and for businesses 
that will not be producing. 

This is a group of people who have not had an original thought since Keynes was alive and healthy decades ago.

There are many conspiracy theories afoot at this time. Here is one...

I have to wonder if stock buy-backs, which were keeping the markets afloat since Trump's tax cuts in 2018, have ended while the markets have been in free-fall, and if this has happened at the same time that insider selling has slowed? 

Get it....at the very time when buying back shares makes sense - that is when prices are lower so companies can buy back more shares for every dollar they devote to this project - has this buying stopped just as the people who were benefiting most from these buy backs at maximum prices - the insiders who command the same buy backs - have stopped selling because they would be making less money at those lower prices?

If yes, it would essentially prove that those buy-backs were only happening to pump the market to facilitate maximum profits for the insiders who not only put those same buy-backs in place, but who also benefited from them by selling into the resulting bubble. 

We shall see...

Stay safe. 

This will end and all will be well.


harvey ball smiley face

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