Trump has been musing about the need for America to get back to work by Easter...about three weeks from now. Many are pillorying him - accusing him of ignoring sound medical and public health advice.
These people are right! This is not a man who thinks objective, professional advice is worth anything if it conflicts with his merest whims!
But I think Trump kind of has a point this time.
The world's economy cannot just go on a complete shut down for three or even two months. If we do this, the damage to the foundations of our economic life would be profound and could last for years and years, causing permanent damage.
I think people assume that this crisis means that we will be "off" for a while, then go back to normal.
The vast majority of people do not understand that if this lasts more than a few months, what they think of as "normal" will be gone.
Do you think you will just return to dining at your favourite small restaurant after this event?...that establishment likely won't exist.
Will you be off to buy a brand new car after this?...get ready for the lowest prices you have ever seen, offered by companies that are not long with this world.
Will you travel after this?...many of your favourite tourist destinations will be permanently closed.
Are you looking forward to spending your money as you had previously?...expect massive tax increases as governments struggle to finance the massive debt they are taking on to meet the crisis, and to pay social benefits to millions of newly unemployed persons.
To try to mitigate this economic disaster, something like a return to "semi-normal" may likely be widely recommended, soon.
A return to "semi-normal" could see anyone over the age of 60, and with underlying medical conditions remaining mostly in self-isolation.
Others could slowly reintegrate back into normal life, with everyone taking a very wide range of new and semi-permanent precautions to continue to deal with COVID 19 until a vaccine is ready and distributed....wearing masks and gloves; sanitizing all surfaces; and continuing "rationale distancing"; still largely working from home and staying away from others where possible.
CAVEAT!! If COVID 19 mutates further, and becomes even more dangerous, then all bets are off! Welcome to the COVID 19 Depression!
Again, one thing should become clear soon - we cannot just shut down the planet's economy and start it up again a few months later.
As the real implications of this become clearer, I think we will try to get things going again. Expect us to try to go from "social distancing" to "rationale distancing" soon.
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