Random Thoughts...Biden, Trump, COVID

The Next US President: Biden will take on Trump in he next US presidential election. Game on!

The US Right accuses Biden of being mentally deficient owing to age. He does look OLD when not 100% focussed on looking otherwise. He moves around like he is OLD; he glances about like he is OLD; he forgets things when he speaks from time to time like he is OLD....

...this is because he is OLD.

Although he is likely closer to a heart attack than Biden, Trump comes across like he is 20 years younger than Biden, in spite of the fact that there is only three years between them in age...Biden is 77 and Trump will be 74 at the next election. The US Left essentially ignores this issue - it is key.

Much will rely on who Biden chooses as a running mate as most will look to that person as a very real "president in waiting" when they vote in November. Biden has about a 7% lead in polls versus Trump today...expect this to disappear.

Note - There is a very real possibility that one of these men will have a medical issue owing to age and will not make it to the November vote. The man I am worried about is not Trump.

COVID 19 and the Economy: We are starting to see just how much damage COVID 19 is doing to the world's economy.  

For example, 11% of the entire US workforce applied for unemployment insurance benefits in the last three weeks...only 69% of renters paid their rent for April in that country, and this is just getting started.  

Governments are plunging money into an international economy that is not operating. Central banks have lowered rates to zero so people who aren't borrowing money will borrow and spend. The efforts of policy makers will only work if we are soon on a trajectory that is at least semi-normal. There is no plan to do this.

But will these fiscal and monetary efforts work at all?  

We have been priming the pump for ten years incurring massive public and private debts courtesy of the lowest interest rates in human history, and endless government spending. 

The economies of the developed world have not responded as economic modelling suggests they should - the more money we have added to the pump, the slower it has operated as the velocity of money has inexplicably slowed to its lowest rate since the Great Depression. Keynes never said that countries should borrow and spend past the point of fiscal saturation.

The world is changing...