I covered this in May...time to revisit the theory of Professor Allan Lichtman who has successfully predicted the last nine US presidential elections.
Lichtman's model is simple - if any six of these questions are seen as False, the sitting president will lose.
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Let's look again to see if Trump will be re-elected according to this model. I'll note changes in RED.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
The Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
There are no serious competitors to Trump, however, some Republicans have organized media campaigns against him which is unprecedented - True/False
Change to False. The opposition to Trump from well-organized Republicans, such as those behind the Lincoln Project, is likely more significant than having someone run against him to be the nominee.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Trump is the president - True
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
There is no third party or independent challenger of note - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
The economy will be in recession - False
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
The growth is above the mean for the two previous terms - True...however, the effects of COVID 19 may mask this entirely...a weaker than normal indicator.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
There have been major policy changes - True
8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
The George Lloyd's murder may result in sustained unrest, but we will not know for months - True
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
There is no third party or independent challenger of note - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
The economy will be in recession - False
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
The growth is above the mean for the two previous terms - True...however, the effects of COVID 19 may mask this entirely...a weaker than normal indicator.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
There have been major policy changes - True
8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
The George Lloyd's murder may result in sustained unrest, but we will not know for months - True
Change to False - There is continuing social unrest in many places in the United States. This will explode if Trump and the Republicans ram through a new Supreme Court nominee in the weeks before the election.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
The entire administration has been a scandal - impeachment will hurt Trump here - False
10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
The foreign policy pursued by Trump has seen no major failures - True
11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Trump has launched no wars but renewing NAFTA was a major foreign policy success, as was the recent peace deal in the Middle East - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Trump is a hero to tens of millions/a vagabond to tens of millions - no American president has ever worked so hard to divide his country - True/False
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
The entire administration has been a scandal - impeachment will hurt Trump here - False
10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
The foreign policy pursued by Trump has seen no major failures - True
11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Trump has launched no wars but renewing NAFTA was a major foreign policy success, as was the recent peace deal in the Middle East - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Trump is a hero to tens of millions/a vagabond to tens of millions - no American president has ever worked so hard to divide his country - True/False
Change to True - Trump is adored by his supporters. Still, the level of hatred is matched by his opponents - a weaker than normal indicator.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Biden has charisma - False
The totals...
True - 7 (2 are weak)
False - 6
My review of Lichtman's model suggests that Trump will lose the next presidential election.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Biden has charisma - False
The totals...
True - 7 (2 are weak)
False - 6
My review of Lichtman's model suggests that Trump will lose the next presidential election.
On Biden's charisma, I think that it is boosted by Harris' presence on the ticket.
ReplyDeleteWhile Hrumph has no major military failures, the recent exposure of his true views of service men and women will, I think hurt him.
Regarding the economy, the macro number look good. However, income inequality has grown meaning that many Americans are not benefiting from the macro numbers.
Always enjoy your perspective.