The Sedition That Didn't Happen

On August 28, 1963, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., stood in front of the Lincoln Memorial on the Washington Mall and gave the iconic speech of the civil rights era. An estimated 250,000 people were in attendance as part of the March for Jobs and Freedom.

The March was peaceful.

Does anyone doubt that, had Dr. King led a riot that attacked the Capitol buildings as an act of insurrection designed to thwart constitutional processes, that he would have been arrested, tried for sedition, convicted, and then either sent to jail for the rest of his life or hanged from the neck until he was dead?

That would have been the right thing to do. 

How to Defeat COVID-19 in 6 weeks WITHOUT a Vaccine!!

 A letter to the Premier of my province...

Hello Premier Ford,

Thank you for your leadership during this difficult time. I would like to take this opportunity to discuss an alternative approach to the COVID-19 pandemic that I believe would allow us to get the situation entirely under control until such a time that we are able to deploy an effective vaccine.

The approach is based on quick antigen tests of the type that can give results in 15 minutes or less. Some of these tests can show whether a person has COVID-19 even when they are asymptomatic. Health Canada is reviewing about ten of these at the moment, but has only approved one, and this one test has barely been deployed. I'll discuss the limitations of the tests and how to deal with them as I outline the proposed approach for dealing with the pandemic.

The basic idea for controlling COVID-19 and rendering it nothing but a nuisance is the simple fact that without constantly accessing new hosts, COVID-19 will burn out and disappear. The thousands of people who are newly infected every single day in Canada are the lifeblood of COVID-19. 

Cut off the disease's access to new hosts, and it is finished and we can get back to normal.

To get this under control, I propose mass testing based on the use of the quick antigen tests mentioned above, coupled quarantine. Specially, it would start with testing every single person in the province over a three day period, and requiring mandatory and legally-enforced quarantine for anyone who is found to carry the disease. Two weeks after the first round of testing, we repeat the entire thing. Then we do it all again two weeks after that, ending three rounds of mass testing in a month and a half.

There should be virtually no COVID-19 left to deal with in Ontario after this as the disease will have had no way to spread. 

While we would obviously keep long term care facilities and persons with underlying illnesses in lock down to safeguard them against even the remnants of the disease, everyone else could go back to normal.

Because there would be some COVID-19 left in the community after even this mass effort, and because some could come in from other jurisdictions, we would have to repeat the three days of testing every six weeks or so after the end of the first three rounds just to make sure that we keep the disease under control until we can access vaccines that can end the pandemic. Nonetheless, this proposal gets everyone back to work, and all children back to school. If we want to wrestle COVID-19 to the ground, the above proposal is how we can do it.

One significant concern with this proposal is the fact that these tests are not as effective as PCR tests (although, unlike those tests, they can detect the illness in asymptomatic people.) The sensitivity that Health Canada demands for antigen tests is 80%, and while many of these tests can best that result, they are generally inferior to PCR tests. The concern then is that if you test the entire population using these tests, and the tests are only 85% effective, for example, this means that 15% of the population will have results that do not accurately gauge whether or not they actually have COVID-19. If these people can continue to circulate in the general population, the disease will continue to spread.

The answer to this is rather simple. Don't give everyone one test...give them two.

If two tests are given and the known sensitivity of each test is 85%, should the tests give the same result, a simple probability calculation shows that the chances of that happening and the tests are mistaken are under 4%. Put another way, if two tests give the same result, the chances of a correct result are not 85%, they are over 96%. 

This isn't a mystery - it is just math.

Given the reduced sensitivity of quick antigen tests, the proposal would therefore see two of these tests given to every person in Ontario over a three day period. If the tests both show the person has COVID-19, they will be subject to a mandatory and legally-enforceable two week quarantine. If the tests give the same results showing that the person does not have COVID-19, they can continue to go about their business with masks and social distancing. Finally, if the tests give two different results, the person must go for a PCR test - if positive for COVID-19 they must quarantine for two weeks, and if not, they can go about their business.

There are problems with the proposal.

The first is that it would require 75 million quick antigen tests for the first six week effort, and 25 million every six weeks after that until we got a vaccine. The tests allow for this proposal because they are quick and cheap, but Health Canada has been very slow to approve the ones that are available. Even if they are approved, it will take the companies that make these tests some time to get enough in hand to allow the above proposal to work.

The second issue is that such a proposal will take health care and other resources away from their important work during the days of testing - even organizing something like this will be a massive undertaking (Note - these tests cannot be administered at home, but require someone with at least some small degree of training.) Having said that, after the six weeks of testing, we would be in a situation much closer to normal, and we will be able to reap the benefits, including assigning extra staff to long-term care facilities, and even just allowing some health professionals to take a break. In short, while difficult to implement, the benefits from doing this would be massive.

This is only a proposal. I am not a health professional, and I know you have the benefit of informed and intelligent advice as we work to deal with this catastrophe. I would note, however, that if case counts matter, then what we are doing is simply not working.  

If it is time for drastic action to wrestle this to the ground, you now have a plan.

Thank you for your attention to this matter,

Stay safe,

Putin's Pride!

He has played an American President like a piano, including manipulating much of the American electorate to deftly get the man elected.

Now, as more chaos beckons, there can be no doubt that Putin's internet trolls are bombarding social networks of all sorts with every type of exhortation to violence and mayhem!

How does America not realize how completely they have been and are still being played?

Brazil Trump!

We all saw what happened. It was not ANTIFA. It was not Black Lives Matter. It was Trump's Tribe - people who prefer myths to reality, and the feeling of belonging to any group, even the most odious and despicable ones, to membership in the civil commonwealth.

Now, the fallout.

Trump has had the ability to destroy any Republican who opposed him, and regularly threatened to do so. Don't blame them. Lindsey and Mitch were just trying to survive...it is what they do. He fired every single official who got in his way, regardless of the quality of their service, or objectivity if their advice.

It took Trump's followers shitting on the American flag and on their country - in the Capitol in an act of planned sedition encouraged by Trump and his minions - for hours on end for these fellow Republicans to have an opportunity to break with him.  

They know he is down, and they will want to keep him there. Expect a cavalcade of revelations.. his "kindness" to his allies is about to be returned in kind. 

Trump knows he faces multiple criminal charges after January 20th. I think he may be on a plane to Brazil in January 19th. 

The Terminator!

From The Terminator...

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/01/05/arnold-schwarzenegger-on-why-republicans-must-stop-trump?utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2021-01-05&utm_content=article-link-2&etear=nl_today_2

Key quote...

"Claims of mass voter fraud have been rejected by court after court (59 cases were thrown out of courts including the Supreme Court), by the Department of Justice and by state election officials from both parties. There is no question about who won the presidential election and continuing this charade is stupid, crazy and evil."

Note that all of the claims about voting machines, and destroyed ballots and dead people voting were made in these lawsuits...these claims are obviously false. 

Trump's basic assertion that REPUBLICAN officials in states like Georgia and Arizona perpetrated or permitted a fraudulent election to overturn a Republican president, which is what he effectively claims, is insane.

In normal times, Trump's telephone call asking officials in Georgia to "find" votes to overturn a fair and free election would warrant immediate and successful impeachment proceedings, but he has so dulled our senses to what is right and normal that he got away with it. He has set a very dangerous precedent for the future.

American democracy has never been tested like this.

 

2021 Predictions!

Hi all!  Here we are again....predictions!

Sports...

MLB:

Blue Jays will make the playoffs, but lose in the first pound/playoff game.

NHL:

Toronto!

NBA:

LA again.

Economics...

COVID-19 will subside....everything will do well, for two months, then recession.

Stock markets will keep rocketing until March....then 30% drop.

Politics...

Cda federal election....Liberal majority. 185 seats. Trudeau resigns.

International...

USA - Trump tries to flee to Brazil, but is stopped and arrested for fed election law and tax issues. Then arrested for money laundering issues. Gets 15 years by the end of 2022.

Biden will prove to be barely competent....lots of good intentions, but issues with delivering the goods. The tone of US politics will slowly calm down, which will be his biggest accomplishment.

UK - Scotland will cause trouble...expect turmoil for years.  The economy will slump.

Europe - Italy will renew threat to leave. It will stay. Expect the formation of a European Army in three years.  Borders will close to African/other migrants, and many will be sent home.

China - PLA will enter Hong Kong to suppress freedom; may also fire on demonstrators fighting environmental damage.  Cult of personality will require people to swear allegiance to President Xi. Will blame the USA for COVID-19.

Environment...

GHG emissions will slow and drop outside of a crisis for the first time ever,

2020 Predictions Revisited!

Here it is....how did my predictions for 2020 work out??

Sports:

NHL - Stanley Cup:

Not Toronto. I predict the Washington Capitals for the second time in three years.

Nope...Tampa Bay!

NFL:

Not the Patriots. The Buffalo Bills takes wing!

Nope...Kansas City!?  Waaaaaaat?

MLB:

Not the Blue Jays. I predict the Atlanta Braves. The Blue Jays will go 78 and 84.

Nope...the Jays made the expanded playoffs! Dodgers win!

NBA:

Not Toronto, but they will put up a respectable fight in the playoffs. I predict the LA Lakers.

Yes! Lakers!

Is Lebron the best ever?  

I say no, Wilt Chamberlain was the best basketball player who ever lived. No one else is even close.

Economics:

The decade-long free ride is almost over!

I know that I have said that for the last three years. When a recession looms, everyone works like crazy to make sure it doesn't happen - Central Banks reduce rates and print money; Governments borrow and spend like drunken sailors; bought prognosticators and opinion makers spew a cavalcade of spin designed to buoy confidence.  

Eventually, the tide turns. When it turns this time, the result will be an Epic Tsunami of Economic Despair. Enough of the unfortunate metaphors...  

N/A...Pandemic Recession Delay.

Banking:  

I think a major world bank or banks failed last fall, prompting the REPO situation. 

More specifically, I think we will discover this year that a major bank or banks need a daily infusion of cash to stay afloat, but other bankers do not trust the collateral that they have to offer, so those other banks have stopped lending to them, even for 24 hours at a time. To keep lid on things, the US Fed has stepped in and provided support. 

Are even more banks waiting to fail? Is a new era of Zombie Banks about to start? Should we not just let banks fail? (Hmmm, are some of them quietly exposed to the fantasy that is Chinese shadow banking, and they are about to go down with that ship? Is the next great outrage?)

In 2020, central bankers will do what they can to mask the reality of a bank or banks on the ropes, as they can read history and they know that the failure of the Austrian bank Credit-Anstalt triggered the financial crisis that drove the Great Depression even deeper and brought the financial markets in Europe to a halt in 1931. 

We may not learn which bank or banks failed until after the US presidential election as central banks can print unlimited money to keep the corpses afloat.

N/A....Pandemic Rationale for Masking Bank Failures.

 

Canada:

Inverted yield curves don't lie, and ours has been inverted for months. Canada is in a recession right now. We will see serious economic dislocation by the end of 2020, with the TSX down 20%.

Canadian banks will face their third debt downgrade in four years.

Nope....The rating agencies love us even with a $343 Billion deficit.

USA:

This is an election year, so all the stops will be pulled to make sure there is some semblance of economic growth - very tepid growth will continue, but the stock market will waver badly.

Trump will agree to a "do nothing" trade deal with China to get rid of tariffs and keep the economy going in the hopes of reelection. Specifically, he will drop tariffs in return for promises by China to punish Chinese nationals and companies that steal American IP.  Of course, they steal IP at the subtle behest and with the connivance of the Chinese government. It will be THE BEST TRADE DEAL EVER!

YES! Trump did a Phase One trade deal...lots of US farmers are happy.

Three Amigos:

The Americans, Mexicans and Canadians will get their new trade deal through, providing some positive news!  Auto production will start to seep back North.

YES! Viva America!

Europe:

A mild recession will grow worse...expect zero to negative growth. Markets will fall precipitously, only buoyed by new central bank buying of equities - we are all on the road to Japan, circa 1994!

N/A....Pandemic Masking Economic Malaise.

Britain:

Britain will formally leave Europe on Jan 31, 2020, but almost all important details will be left to future negotiations - they will even stay with EU regulations! 

So Brexit will drag on...and on...and on, while head offices of European banks decamp for their home countries from London, costing the Brits tens of thousands of high-paying jobs. PM Johnson will scream "betrayal"!...but those jobs are as good as gone boys, and they ain't comin' back.

YES! They got deal...and tens of thousands of jobs are gone. Putin wins!

China:

They are in a recession now, but they will never admit it. 

Their corporate lending system is in shambles, but they will never admit it.

Their housing market is on the precipice, but they will never admit it.

They are facing widespread dissatisfaction and looming unrest amongst the working class, and they will never admit it.

Expect announced GDP growth of 6.2% for all of 2020, which is about right on target - of course. The press release is already written.

Welcome to the New Tyranny Economy...everything is going well, and if you ever say otherwise, you will be shipped off to the Gulag. 

YES! Everything is still awesome!

Selected Stocks and Commodities:

Canadian Pot Stocks - will be down 90% from all-time highs.

NA Automakers - down 40% on the year.

Cdn Banks - down 20% on the year.

FANGS - down 10% on the year.

TESLA - down 20% on the year.

Oil - will hit $25 a barrel.

Gold - will hit $1,600 an ounce.

Copper - will drop below $2.00 a pound.

N/A....Pandemic, All Bets Were Off!

Politics:

USA 1!

OK, here it goes. I know you have been waiting for this!!!

Donald Trump will NOT lose the impeachment trial in the Senate!  

But there will be something like a real trial in the US Senate, including exceptionally damaging evidence from the likes of John Bolton. Trump will win a pyrrhic victory - no impeachment, but two Republicans will vote against him and two others will abstain.  Those Republicans who support him will come under enormous pressure, and will be barely able to explain why he was acquitted.

The effect of this, much like the recent article in Christianity Today, will be to slowly separate The Donald from The Swamp, and not in a good way.  

To date, his entire defence of almost everything has been to Tweet that the other guys are sleazy as well - which is true - so who cares? After this trial, everyone will have to admit that there was a quid pro quo - because there was such a thing.  Literally everyone will have to admit that he used his office to try to gain an advantage in the election.  

It will be obvious that Trump's malfeasance goes beyond hat the others have done - he is truly unique, and not in a good way. His approval rating will drop below 30%.

No amount of Hannity will cure this - his relentless lying about this issue will prove to be a fatal deceit.

YES! He's a WINNER! One Republican senator voted against him. His popularity did tank.

USA 2!

Bloomberg will be elected the next President of the United States, defeating Donald Trump handily.

Bloomberg is only at about 6 - 7% in Democratic polls right now.  But he has the money to stay in no matter what, and in America he who has the most cash wins most of the time.  This is crucial - he can outspend Trump 10 - 1 personally, and Trump's friends in America's Aristocracy are also his friends.

The others?

Biden and Sandernista are both too old....even Trump is too old at age 73.

Warren is too Left, and America is not ready for an Indigenous President.

That guy whose name begins with "B" is a flash in the pan - people are parking their votes with him until they see a real option.

Bloomberg will rocket after Iowa. He is skipping it because he knows he doesn't need it. He knows that he has New York and California locked.

More money...more social media presence (he actually OWNS it)...more real experience, and a middle of the road approach that America yearns for.  He has been preparing for this for years.

Trump can't win versus Bloomberg. He will resist leaving office. He will be arrested within 30 days of leaving relating to his ancient dealings in NYC.

Nope...the bloom faded from Bloomberg....Bideon won! Trump is a loser!

North Korea:

The Rocketman will launch missiles...he will explode bombs...he will trade barbs. The USA and the world will ramp up sanctions, so Rocketman's people will starve, even more.  

Trump will shelve plans for a Trump Tower Pyongyang.

Nope...No one cares about North Korea in a pandemic.

South China Sea:

China will need a diversion in 2020 from Hong Kong and the mass of internal problems that will emerge during the year. Expect a shooting incident in the South China Sea, likely between the People's Liberation Army Navy, and a second rate navy, like that of The Philippines. This will be front page news for months...the exact diversion the CCP leadership needs.

Nope....the Pandemic Saves the Day!

Hong Kong:

Expect a crack down, including PLA soldiers in the streets and mass arrests and deportations to the Mainland in 2020. The CCP does not does not suffer fools gracefully. Understand - to stay in power, the CCP would shoot EVERYONE.

Nope....the Pandemic Saves the Day!

Europe:

Will very obviously move closer to Putinland. This could come in the form of a deal on Crimea involving a supervised referendum, and the forced sale of Crimea to Russia by Ukraine when Russia wins. Ukraine will be left to rot as Europe pursues Russian resources now that the anti-Russian Britain has bailed on the continent.

Nope....the Pandemic Saves the Day!

Italy:

Will threaten Italexit - Europe will loosen budget requirements.  Italy will stay.

Nope....the Pandemic Saves the Day!

Britain:

Brexit will happen.  A new Scottish referendum is now inevitable. It will not happen in 2020, but it will become obvious this year that Scotland will be leaving the Union...and likely Northern Ireland as well.

YES! Scottish independence pending once they find a new King...now that Connery has passed away.

France:

There will be strikes....lots of strikes.

YES! Then...Pandemic.

Germany:

Expect a big lurch Right...yes, THAT Right.

YES! Far Right Parties have 13% of the vote.

Africa:

Expect anti-Chinese disturbances, as populations become alarmed at the degree to which their governments have sold them out to China's new imperial ambitions.  

Nope....the Pandemic Saves the Day!

Asia:

India and Pakistan will get into a very short shooting war. Both will win, as they always do.

Nope...it was India and China with clubs...OK, and a bit of Pakistan.

Crime! A new category!

Epstein - Filthy Bill; The Prince; Many Others:

Bill Clinton will be tied to Epstein and his girls - like Andrew before him, will retire from public life. 

All the women who are coming forward to police right now will be paid to stay silent.  In the end, no one will be charged with anything.  

"...and the beat goes on..."

YES! He has disappeared.

Treason:

Expect charges against selected Cambridge Analytica employees and related scum, as Western States finally understand that Russia is fighting a war against them via the Internet and Social Media, and they are using traitors in our midst to do it. Britain will take the lead as those political leaders who have benefited the most from the treason seek to distance themselves from it by seeing off their stooges. 

Nope...pending.

Finance Crimes:

The Next Great Scam will be revealed!  

Every recession appears to involve the revelation that financial institutions have been involved in some sort of high crime and misdemeanours!  

Hmmm....are Western banks involved in the Chinese shadow lending market, supplying government insured deposits into that market, taking massive "presents" under the table from charlatans for their efforts?  

I have no idea, but the Next Great Scam will likely be something like that.

Nope...Pandemic Ripoffs Provide New High Crime Opportunities!

Pop Culture:

The Rolling Stones will officially retire.

Nope...will never happen!

Disco will make a comeback, again.

Nope...

Bill Murray will win an Oscar.

Not yet....