Cohen has maintained that Trump did know about the June, 2016 meeting between Manafort, Trump Jr., Kushner and the Russians.
Trump sent his response to Muller's questions last week. Apparently, they say that "to the best of his knowledge", Trump did not know about this meeting. He has previously been very firm in saying that he did not know about that meeting before it took place, including on Twitter.
And today - only after Trump has provided answers directly to Mueller on this issue - Cohen has entered a plea to providing misleading testimony to Congress.
Thoughts.
Case Management. Mueller is so far ahead of these people that it is scary - his management of this case is a masterpiece.
I think he waited until Trump may have implicated himself by providing a written lie to the FBI regarding what he knew about the above noted meeting, before moving ahead to convict the person who will provide contrary evidence.
If he had convicted Cohen sooner, Trump may not have offered the lie. This is not entrapment or baiting someone - Trump chose to answer as he did - he was free to tell the truth at any time, and was not coerced in any way.
It Was Trump's Meeting. It is inconceivable that Trump did not know about a meeting between his son, his son-in-law, and the head of his political campaign for the presidency of the United States - the three most powerful people in his campaign other than Trump himself - with anyone else during the campaign, especially the Russians. He knew.
Six Days in June. Trump Jr., heard about the meeting on June 3, 2016. The meeting was held six days later. What Mueller may actually know, but needs someone to provide evidence to prove, is what transpired during those six days.
As noted here before, I think it is very likely that a tentative deal was hammered out in those six days. In short, if the Russians actually had evidence that would have destroyed Hillary Clinton and therefore handed the presidency to Trump, in return Trump would have relax sanctions on Russian that were imposed after they annexed Crimea, after he was elected. Such a deal would have been tantamount to treason.
What happened in those days is the key to this entire sad episode, and it still remains to be revealed - "Six days in June" may soon become as important to US political history as the 18 missing minutes of tape recording was 45 years ago.
Hope. The other person who would know all of this is Hope Hicks. She is no doubt watching very carefully as Trump continues to fail to pardon Manafort, and the fact that as Manafort continued to lie to the FBI, they knew of every single lie as he told them.
Is she going to plead to obstruction to avoid prison and cooperate? Has she already been cooperating for months? She does not want to spend the rest of her life in prison.
Seth Rich. If the Russians did provide the leaks regarding Clinton to Wikileaks, as seems obvious now, then Seth Rich did not. Was he killed to throw off any investigation into the source of those leaks - that is, was he killed by the same people who stole the e-mails in the first place?
And what do we make of Julian Assange's offer of $25 K for information leading to his killers? This offer reinforces the impression that he was the source, and further obscures the matter.
Trace the statements and assertions and their sources here...do you believe Trump, Assange and the Russians; or Mueller and the FBI?
Clinton. She was in Toronto recently with her despicable husband, getting ready to run again in 2020. She needs to go away.
Thursday, 29 November 2018
Canadian Political Ethics and Trump
I'm a Canadian. We have very well-defined ethical standards in my country when it comes to police investigations and politicians.
If an investigation is underway, politicians are expected to say NOTHING regarding the investigation to ensure that there is no chance that they may inadvertently affect its outcome. Politicians who do make such comments typically have to resign.
When the politicians themselves are in any way considered to be the subject of such an investigation, they must step aside for its duration. They may return to office afterward should they be cleared of any wrong-doing, but the rule is clear - investigations are considered to be more important than any one person's career.
Consider this...
"While the disgusting Fake News is doing everything within their power not to report it that way, at least 3 major players are intimating that the Angry Mueller Gang of Dems is viciously telling witnesses to lie about facts & they will get relief. This is our Joseph McCarthy Era!"
And this...
"The Mueller Witch Hunt is a total disgrace. They are looking at supposedly stolen Crooked Hillary Clinton Emails (even though they don’t want to look at the DNC Server), but have no interest in the Emails that Hillary DELETED & acid washed AFTER getting a Congressional Subpoena!"
It goes on and on.
Trump's deranged Twitter tirades are simply unthinkable in a Canadian context. Anything like this would see demands for the immediate resignation of the author of such Tweets, with support for the person's resignation from across the political spectrum.
This is not a matter of "...vive la difference!" It is a matter of either having ethics, or of not having them at all.
If an investigation is underway, politicians are expected to say NOTHING regarding the investigation to ensure that there is no chance that they may inadvertently affect its outcome. Politicians who do make such comments typically have to resign.
When the politicians themselves are in any way considered to be the subject of such an investigation, they must step aside for its duration. They may return to office afterward should they be cleared of any wrong-doing, but the rule is clear - investigations are considered to be more important than any one person's career.
Consider this...
"While the disgusting Fake News is doing everything within their power not to report it that way, at least 3 major players are intimating that the Angry Mueller Gang of Dems is viciously telling witnesses to lie about facts & they will get relief. This is our Joseph McCarthy Era!"
And this...
"The Mueller Witch Hunt is a total disgrace. They are looking at supposedly stolen Crooked Hillary Clinton Emails (even though they don’t want to look at the DNC Server), but have no interest in the Emails that Hillary DELETED & acid washed AFTER getting a Congressional Subpoena!"
It goes on and on.
Trump's deranged Twitter tirades are simply unthinkable in a Canadian context. Anything like this would see demands for the immediate resignation of the author of such Tweets, with support for the person's resignation from across the political spectrum.
This is not a matter of "...vive la difference!" It is a matter of either having ethics, or of not having them at all.
Tuesday, 27 November 2018
Manafort Unflips!
Manafort has not been cooperating. He has been caught in a cavalcade of lies after promising the FBI that he would fully cooperate in return for a lenient sentence following his conviction before a jury of his peers on eight criminal charges.
What do we make of this?
Manafort obviously didn't know what Mueller knows, and did not know that Mueller was fully aware of when he was lying and when he was not. This is good - Mueller still has a leg up in terms of the evidence base that he has to work with.
Manafort also obviously never intended to cooperate. He was either promised a pardon by Trump, or more disconcerting, he has been the key actor is a filthy charade designed to draw out the investigation as long as possible, to allow its opponents to work to destroy it....or both.
It seems that Manafort is still Trump's man, and that is very bad for the investigation as it no longer has its key witness.
As noted here repeatedly, Mueller needs one of the insiders to flip in order to fully prosecute any crimes coming out of the meeting between Manafort, Kushner and Trump Jr., and the Russians in June, 2016. Right now, he appears to have no one.
Other than some charges and convictions of those who obstructed justice and of some Russians who worked to influence the last presidential election, this investigation may be over.
Again - where is Hope Hicks in all this?
This is 100% about Russian influence on this hall of power in the USA. Based on his last meeting with Putin, it is clear that Trump is deeply compromised. Putin is now making some very aggressive moves in Ukraine. Has he been assured that the USA won't lift a finger?
How deep is the rot here?
I sense a tragedy unfolding.
What do we make of this?
Manafort obviously didn't know what Mueller knows, and did not know that Mueller was fully aware of when he was lying and when he was not. This is good - Mueller still has a leg up in terms of the evidence base that he has to work with.
Manafort also obviously never intended to cooperate. He was either promised a pardon by Trump, or more disconcerting, he has been the key actor is a filthy charade designed to draw out the investigation as long as possible, to allow its opponents to work to destroy it....or both.
It seems that Manafort is still Trump's man, and that is very bad for the investigation as it no longer has its key witness.
As noted here repeatedly, Mueller needs one of the insiders to flip in order to fully prosecute any crimes coming out of the meeting between Manafort, Kushner and Trump Jr., and the Russians in June, 2016. Right now, he appears to have no one.
Other than some charges and convictions of those who obstructed justice and of some Russians who worked to influence the last presidential election, this investigation may be over.
Again - where is Hope Hicks in all this?
This is 100% about Russian influence on this hall of power in the USA. Based on his last meeting with Putin, it is clear that Trump is deeply compromised. Putin is now making some very aggressive moves in Ukraine. Has he been assured that the USA won't lift a finger?
How deep is the rot here?
I sense a tragedy unfolding.
Monday, 26 November 2018
The Great Unravel
How will it all unravel?
We have price bubbles in housing and stocks – at least. Rising interest rates at the end of a business cycle will cause these bubbles to collapse. In fact, this process has probably already started.
What follows is what happens when these bubbles start to unravel, and this is what is about to happen…again.
Housing Prices:
Falling house prices causes speculators to panic. These people cannot be caught with losing investments because they likely do not live in their investment properties, and they have no intention of paying them off - they will sell/dump, and take whatever profits that have now – or they will get out whatever cash they can, while they are still able to do so. This will drive prices down even more.
Recent buyers will be in the red as prices fall. Most prices of recent buyers will be below the value of their deposit plus the mortgage. Those with variable rate mortgages will be in serious difficulty as their monthly mortgage payments will rise on homes that can only be sold at a loss. Some may even see the value of their homes drop below the value of the mortgage itself, meaning they have no equity in their homes at all.
This will spark even more selling – both on the part of owners who are in the red to avoid even deeper losses, and more so as a result of creditors panicking and foreclosing on mortgages before prices fall so far that they are in the red on the mortgage book as well.
Most homeowners will initially be fine in this scenario – the above situation may only affect a maximum of 5% of homeowners. But home prices reflect most recent sales not historic values, so the price action around these speculative and distress sales by variable mortgage/underwater owners will be enough to collapse the prices of everyone’s home by a significant margin. Prices in Toronto fell 30% from 1990 to 1996.
The biggest issue at this point in the bubble’s collapse will be what is evident in every single very collapsing bubble driven by rising interest rates – prices will be lower, but it does not matter how far prices fall, as there will be very few buyers as almost no one will have any money to buy, especially in Canada where we have never been more in debt.
Housing Industry:
The above price drop and drying up sales will devastate the entire housing industry. The unemployment rate rose from 4% to 12% in Toronto in 18 months from mid-1989 to the end of 1990 during the last major real estate collapse. Anyone employed by this sector will be at risk – builders and trades people; building materials producers; lenders and bankers; real estate agents; support staff. It could take years for employment in the sector to recover, and employment recovery will match price recovery – prices did not recover in Toronto after the last collapse for 12 years.
These are very good jobs. The hollowing-out of real estate sector employment will have a similarly devastating impact on the wider economy, affecting everything from clothes retailers, to coffee shop and restaurant owners and workers, to car salesmen and women. In this scenario, the collapse of the real estate sector becomes the driving force behind a general economic slowdown and recession.
But it gets worse.
As noted, the first round of speculative and distress sales will drive down the value of every single property. This will catch even some people who are not recent buyers with variable rate mortgages or speculators, and will force even more distress sales.
A key point - The initial price drop is not a one-time, time-limited thing. It sparks a vicious cycle of further price drops as buying dries up as those who still have money stay on the sidelines waiting for ever lower prices, and more and more people go underwater on their mortgages often becoming unemployed at the same time in the more general slow-down, forcing these people into ever more distress sales. With time this cycle subsides, but it could take years to get back to a virtuous cycle of price appreciation.
Again…house prices in Toronto dropped for SIX STRAIGHT YEARS the last time this happened, and did not recover for 12 years.
The Stock Market:
When the stock market and equities bubble starts to burst, many people who have invested “on margin” face a call to pay up what they have borrowed. Investing on margin allows those who do this to borrow cash from their broker to buy many more times what their initial investment could have bought, searching for gains that are a multiple higher than could have been provided by just buying a given stock.
But just as their gains could be many multiples higher, so can they suffer a multiple of losses. When prices drop, massive losses by people who invested on margin spark demands to repay their margin loans by their brokers, resulting in borrowers selling at distress prices – they often sell at any price they can get to pay their debt. At times, some brokers actually sell the stocks of those investors at a loss just to recoup their loans from these people.
So as with collapsing real estate bubbles, a collapsing equities bubble also sparks distress sales which drives falling prices even lower because these sales often swamp normal buying and drive prices of all equities down significantly as margin investment occurs throughout the market.
While some people will continue to buy while prices fall, falling stock prices usually freezes most investment. This drying up of buyers usually forces the market even lower as Fear takes over from Greed, and people decide to take profits and sell. As with the real estate vicious cycle, there is such a cycle in equity markets as well drive by the fear of losses, although it does not last as long.
Again, as with the real estate sector, a declining equities market drives increasing unemployment especially in the investment and banking sectors, and in the wider economy. While not contributing as much to the general economic downturn, the employment effects on this industry are often far more severe than those even on the real estate sector. Many people who lose their jobs in the investment and banking sector in a general stock market collapse and economic downturn never work in the sector again.
Government:
Governments do not plan for recessions. The above scenario will cause revenue to dry up while demands for government services increases as more and more people become unemployed.
The result will be a massive increase in deficits, and a turn to austerity financing as governments slow or stop public sector hiring and wage growth, as well as cut program spending. Governments also usually take action to try to "Keynes" their way out of recessions by spending on things like infrastructure, driving deficits even higher, and central banks lower interest rates, reversing one of the primary causes of the recession in the first place.
Eventually, growth returns courtesy of private sector recovery, and public sector efforts, but by dropping rates and spending borrowed cash, governments and central banks inaugurate the start of the next great bubble…
Query – can we borrow and spend our way out of the next recession given how much we owe now?
Sunday, 25 November 2018
The Problem with Tax Cuts to Utopia
It is all so simple! The Tax Cut Mantra says this - just cut taxes, grow the economy, use the new tax revenue to balance the budget, watch as the new economic growth dribbles down to the masses, and then live in Utopia!
We have been hearing this mantra for about 40 years now - at least since Ronald Reagan. How has this worked out?
Tax Cuts and Balanced Budgets:
When Reagan came to office, the US Government debt was $988 Billion - 32% of GDP, and the deficit was $79 Billion. When he left office, the debt was $2,875 Trillion - 50% of GDP, and the deficit was $153 Billion.
Reagan famously cut taxes. Amongst proponents of the Tax Cut Mantra, what is almost never mentioned is that he almost tripled the National Debt, and he doubled the yearly budget deficit.
Bush Jr. also favoured massive tax cuts. When he came to office the US Government debt was $5.807 Trillion - 55% of GDP, and the deficit was actually a surplus of $128 Billion, courtesy of Clinton's tax increases. When Bush Jr. left office, the US Government Debt was $1.910 Trillion - 83% of GDP, and the deficit was $1.413 Trillion.
Like Reagan, Bush Jr. oversaw massive tax cuts. Amongst proponents of the Tax Cut Mantra, what is almost never mentioned is that he almost quadruped the National Debt in just eight years, and left the country with its largest budget deficit in its history. His presidency was a financial catastrophe.
Household Income:
Welcome to the trickle down! These tax cuts were supposed to benefit EVERYONE! Look at this closely...
The income of the bottom 80% of income earners in the USA has been virtually stagnant for decades.
The income of the wealthy really started to take off in the early 1980s - with Reagan's tax cuts. The reason of this is simple - the majority of the tax cuts were to the income for the wealthy, therefor they are the ones who benefited from those same cuts.
What Happened?
In theory, tax cuts should benefit everyone and should work to grow the economy thereby having a positive effect on government finances. This obviously did not happen. Two things happened to frustrate this mantra.
First of all, which politicians cut taxes on cue, they did not retrain spending. Like politicians everywhere, the conservative politicians who cut taxes also never saw a new dollar in revenue that they did not want to spend.
For example, Bush Jr.'s tax cuts were in the manner of $350 Billion a year, but he oversaw spending increases of about $900 Billion a year by the end of his time in office. The problem here wasn't the necessarily the mantra - it was the people who were tasked with implementing it.
The other problem is the simple fact that the tax cuts were targeted at the wrong people - the rich, rather than everyone else.
What we have learned from 40 years of tax cuts is that the rich do not work hard to build and economy for everyone - they work hard to build an economy for themselves. To benefit everyone, tax cuts have to be targeted at everyone. This should not have been difficult to figure out, and it really speaks more to how much influence the rich actually have on American politics.
Beware when politicians come calling promising tax cuts to Utopia! The theory may be sound....but the politicians themselves most certainly are not.
BTW - this site is brilliant...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com
We have been hearing this mantra for about 40 years now - at least since Ronald Reagan. How has this worked out?
Tax Cuts and Balanced Budgets:
When Reagan came to office, the US Government debt was $988 Billion - 32% of GDP, and the deficit was $79 Billion. When he left office, the debt was $2,875 Trillion - 50% of GDP, and the deficit was $153 Billion.
Reagan famously cut taxes. Amongst proponents of the Tax Cut Mantra, what is almost never mentioned is that he almost tripled the National Debt, and he doubled the yearly budget deficit.
Bush Jr. also favoured massive tax cuts. When he came to office the US Government debt was $5.807 Trillion - 55% of GDP, and the deficit was actually a surplus of $128 Billion, courtesy of Clinton's tax increases. When Bush Jr. left office, the US Government Debt was $1.910 Trillion - 83% of GDP, and the deficit was $1.413 Trillion.
Like Reagan, Bush Jr. oversaw massive tax cuts. Amongst proponents of the Tax Cut Mantra, what is almost never mentioned is that he almost quadruped the National Debt in just eight years, and left the country with its largest budget deficit in its history. His presidency was a financial catastrophe.
Household Income:
Welcome to the trickle down! These tax cuts were supposed to benefit EVERYONE! Look at this closely...
The income of the wealthy really started to take off in the early 1980s - with Reagan's tax cuts. The reason of this is simple - the majority of the tax cuts were to the income for the wealthy, therefor they are the ones who benefited from those same cuts.
What Happened?
In theory, tax cuts should benefit everyone and should work to grow the economy thereby having a positive effect on government finances. This obviously did not happen. Two things happened to frustrate this mantra.
First of all, which politicians cut taxes on cue, they did not retrain spending. Like politicians everywhere, the conservative politicians who cut taxes also never saw a new dollar in revenue that they did not want to spend.
For example, Bush Jr.'s tax cuts were in the manner of $350 Billion a year, but he oversaw spending increases of about $900 Billion a year by the end of his time in office. The problem here wasn't the necessarily the mantra - it was the people who were tasked with implementing it.
The other problem is the simple fact that the tax cuts were targeted at the wrong people - the rich, rather than everyone else.
What we have learned from 40 years of tax cuts is that the rich do not work hard to build and economy for everyone - they work hard to build an economy for themselves. To benefit everyone, tax cuts have to be targeted at everyone. This should not have been difficult to figure out, and it really speaks more to how much influence the rich actually have on American politics.
Beware when politicians come calling promising tax cuts to Utopia! The theory may be sound....but the politicians themselves most certainly are not.
BTW - this site is brilliant...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com
Saturday, 24 November 2018
Melnyk and Ottawa
It may be that he just never had the money.
Now that he has sued his partner, Melnyk's Lebreton Flats project is dead. In reality, it may be that it was never really alive.
Do you recall his rage when he was not granted the rights to a casino out in Stittsville? That was in mid, 2017. He was said to look "very dimly" on that decision. Recall that he won the Lebreton Flats bid in November, 2016.
Having a casino would have revitalized the facility he owns there - now called the Canadian Tire Centre, but something that would have become The White Elephant of Stittsville without a new raison d'etre.
But one has to think there was more to this casino bid than just giving his facility a new lease on life. Casinos are cash cows...and it may be that Melnyk realized that he needed that new cash flow to be able to afford to do the Lebreton Flats development. If fact, I strongly suspect that without this, he was simply not going to be able to pay for the Lebreton Flats development, and that he has been looking for a way out ever since.
I think that Melnyk gave us a wee glimpse of what he was really thinking in his disastrous press conference in December of 2017. Do you remember this?
"What I’m saying is, I would never sell the team. (Moving) is always the possibility, with any franchise. If you open a grocery store and nobody comes, but one opens two blocks down and there’s a line outside, where are you going to have your store? Here, we’re fighting every day to sell a ticket. Honest to God. And when you get to the third round of the playoffs and you’re begging people to buy a ticket, something’s wrong with that picture. We’re just hoping that changes, that’s all."
And this?
"I’m not going to blow a lifetime of working hard to support a hockey team. It’s not going to happen,” Melnyk said. “We can do that. I can do LeBreton. I don’t need partners there....The banks are a big part of anything that you do in any business transaction. So yeah, I have it. The bigger question is whether I’m prepared to blow all that money that I made over many years in a different industry in a different country.”
The key points are in red. To his credit, the man was brutally honest with all of us.
To summarize - "I will consider moving this team if the situation warrants it, and I will not blow all my money on this team."
He has sued his partner alleging that his partner has a conflict of interest because they are building a large condo development close to Lebreton Flats.
Is this a conflict, or would building more places for people to live near the new arena actually complement Lebreton Flats by providing a new source of season ticket holders? I think it is the second, and that Melnyk's lawsuit is a crock.
I wrote this after Melnyk's "December to Remember"....
https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2018/02/the-toronto-senators.html
Will we soon discover that this man has had quiet discussions with Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment and the NHL about a move to Toronto?
This needs to be said. The Ottawa Senators could not sell out in the playoffs. I know we all want to blame him, but in light of this, if you were Melnyk, what would you be thinking?
Stay tuned.
Now that he has sued his partner, Melnyk's Lebreton Flats project is dead. In reality, it may be that it was never really alive.
Do you recall his rage when he was not granted the rights to a casino out in Stittsville? That was in mid, 2017. He was said to look "very dimly" on that decision. Recall that he won the Lebreton Flats bid in November, 2016.
Having a casino would have revitalized the facility he owns there - now called the Canadian Tire Centre, but something that would have become The White Elephant of Stittsville without a new raison d'etre.
But one has to think there was more to this casino bid than just giving his facility a new lease on life. Casinos are cash cows...and it may be that Melnyk realized that he needed that new cash flow to be able to afford to do the Lebreton Flats development. If fact, I strongly suspect that without this, he was simply not going to be able to pay for the Lebreton Flats development, and that he has been looking for a way out ever since.
I think that Melnyk gave us a wee glimpse of what he was really thinking in his disastrous press conference in December of 2017. Do you remember this?
"What I’m saying is, I would never sell the team. (Moving) is always the possibility, with any franchise. If you open a grocery store and nobody comes, but one opens two blocks down and there’s a line outside, where are you going to have your store? Here, we’re fighting every day to sell a ticket. Honest to God. And when you get to the third round of the playoffs and you’re begging people to buy a ticket, something’s wrong with that picture. We’re just hoping that changes, that’s all."
And this?
"I’m not going to blow a lifetime of working hard to support a hockey team. It’s not going to happen,” Melnyk said. “We can do that. I can do LeBreton. I don’t need partners there....The banks are a big part of anything that you do in any business transaction. So yeah, I have it. The bigger question is whether I’m prepared to blow all that money that I made over many years in a different industry in a different country.”
The key points are in red. To his credit, the man was brutally honest with all of us.
To summarize - "I will consider moving this team if the situation warrants it, and I will not blow all my money on this team."
He has sued his partner alleging that his partner has a conflict of interest because they are building a large condo development close to Lebreton Flats.
Is this a conflict, or would building more places for people to live near the new arena actually complement Lebreton Flats by providing a new source of season ticket holders? I think it is the second, and that Melnyk's lawsuit is a crock.
I wrote this after Melnyk's "December to Remember"....
https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2018/02/the-toronto-senators.html
Will we soon discover that this man has had quiet discussions with Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment and the NHL about a move to Toronto?
This needs to be said. The Ottawa Senators could not sell out in the playoffs. I know we all want to blame him, but in light of this, if you were Melnyk, what would you be thinking?
Stay tuned.
Friday, 23 November 2018
Random Thoughts Friday!
Multiple random thoughts!!!
Mueller Probe - Trump has handed in his answers to Mueller's questions. Indictments and pending, but Muller may not act until any followup questions have been answered. We will hear soon that Hicks has not only flipped, but she has been a state witness gathering evidence against various actors for the FBI for months.
Ottawa and Melnyk - He has never had the money to do the Lebreton Flats development. Expect to hear about an attempt to move the team to Toronto, north of the 400 and 401 highways, soon. He will not own the team in 12 months.
Clinton Probe - Expect to hear some bombshell allegations against the Clinton Foundation soon. She will still run to be president again in 2020. Her daughter will also run for office.
Stock Markets - The massive stock buy-backs that held up the stock market until the early fall of this year, did start again in November, after the October financial results quiet season ended, but these have so far failed to lift the market. If the US Fed raises rates again in early December, expect a minor rise in stock prices in December, followed by a 30% drop in the first three months of 2019.
Pot Stocks - The real value of Canopy Growth is about $5 a share, down from the present $42 a share, and the real value of Aurora is about $0.75 a share, down from $8 a share. These companies have no profits, and essentially no international sales. They are a classic bubble.
Brexit - May will be forced to resign, and there will be another referendum - Brexit will lose in a landslide this time. Britain will have to come back to the European Union, cap-in-hand, to get the best deal they can to stay, as now that they have invoked Article 50 of the EU Treaty, they can only stay if all other EU members agree.
BC PR Referendum - The province of British Columbia is having a mail-in referendum on whether they should abandon the first-past-the-post electoral system, and adopt one of three versions of proportional representation.
There have been two previous such referendums in the last 15 years, but not by mail-in ballot. This referendum will see only 35% - 40% participation by electors, with the winning version of PR will get only about 20% support. The NDP-Green coalition government will assert that this is sufficient support to change the entire electoral system - they will not succeed, and will be largely wiped out in the next election.
Redblacks - The Ottawa Redblacks will beat the Calgary Stampeders in the 106th Grey Cup, 42 - 35.
Cdn Banks - The long term debt of Cdn Banks will be downgraded by Moody's for the third time in three years within the next three months, mostly based on concerns about the levels of personal debt in Canada.
Saudi Arabia - President Trump will be censored by Congress, including Republicans, over his continued support for Salman in the face of evidence of his involvement in the murder of Khashoggi. This will be the first clear clue to the world that the Republican Party is having second thoughts about Trump - a process that started with Manafort's flip.
North Korea/Iran - Expect another missile launch and another nuclear test within the next three months, making a shambles of the Trump peace process. Expect serious internal revolts in North Korea as that system of repression finally starts to unravel. Also expect very significant civil unrest to erupt in Iran within three months, with the government losing control of whole districts of the country.
Trudeau - He will be both Time Magazine's "Person Of The Year", and People Magazine's "Sexiest Man Alive" for 2018. He will reveal that he dyes his hair.
Mueller Probe - Trump has handed in his answers to Mueller's questions. Indictments and pending, but Muller may not act until any followup questions have been answered. We will hear soon that Hicks has not only flipped, but she has been a state witness gathering evidence against various actors for the FBI for months.
Ottawa and Melnyk - He has never had the money to do the Lebreton Flats development. Expect to hear about an attempt to move the team to Toronto, north of the 400 and 401 highways, soon. He will not own the team in 12 months.
Clinton Probe - Expect to hear some bombshell allegations against the Clinton Foundation soon. She will still run to be president again in 2020. Her daughter will also run for office.
Stock Markets - The massive stock buy-backs that held up the stock market until the early fall of this year, did start again in November, after the October financial results quiet season ended, but these have so far failed to lift the market. If the US Fed raises rates again in early December, expect a minor rise in stock prices in December, followed by a 30% drop in the first three months of 2019.
Pot Stocks - The real value of Canopy Growth is about $5 a share, down from the present $42 a share, and the real value of Aurora is about $0.75 a share, down from $8 a share. These companies have no profits, and essentially no international sales. They are a classic bubble.
Brexit - May will be forced to resign, and there will be another referendum - Brexit will lose in a landslide this time. Britain will have to come back to the European Union, cap-in-hand, to get the best deal they can to stay, as now that they have invoked Article 50 of the EU Treaty, they can only stay if all other EU members agree.
BC PR Referendum - The province of British Columbia is having a mail-in referendum on whether they should abandon the first-past-the-post electoral system, and adopt one of three versions of proportional representation.
There have been two previous such referendums in the last 15 years, but not by mail-in ballot. This referendum will see only 35% - 40% participation by electors, with the winning version of PR will get only about 20% support. The NDP-Green coalition government will assert that this is sufficient support to change the entire electoral system - they will not succeed, and will be largely wiped out in the next election.
Redblacks - The Ottawa Redblacks will beat the Calgary Stampeders in the 106th Grey Cup, 42 - 35.
Cdn Banks - The long term debt of Cdn Banks will be downgraded by Moody's for the third time in three years within the next three months, mostly based on concerns about the levels of personal debt in Canada.
Saudi Arabia - President Trump will be censored by Congress, including Republicans, over his continued support for Salman in the face of evidence of his involvement in the murder of Khashoggi. This will be the first clear clue to the world that the Republican Party is having second thoughts about Trump - a process that started with Manafort's flip.
North Korea/Iran - Expect another missile launch and another nuclear test within the next three months, making a shambles of the Trump peace process. Expect serious internal revolts in North Korea as that system of repression finally starts to unravel. Also expect very significant civil unrest to erupt in Iran within three months, with the government losing control of whole districts of the country.
Trudeau - He will be both Time Magazine's "Person Of The Year", and People Magazine's "Sexiest Man Alive" for 2018. He will reveal that he dyes his hair.
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