Random Thoughts Friday!

Multiple random thoughts!!!

Mueller Probe - Trump has handed in his answers to Mueller's questions. Indictments and pending, but Muller may not act until any followup questions have been answered. We will hear soon that Hicks has not only flipped, but she has been a state witness gathering evidence against various actors for the FBI for months.

Ottawa and Melnyk - He has never had the money to do the Lebreton Flats development. Expect to hear about an attempt to move the team to Toronto, north of the 400 and 401 highways, soon. He will not own the team in 12 months.

Clinton Probe - Expect to hear some bombshell allegations against the Clinton Foundation soon. She will still run to be president again in 2020. Her daughter will also run for office.

Stock Markets - The massive stock buy-backs that held up the stock market until the early fall of this year, did start again in November, after the October financial results quiet season ended, but these have so far failed to lift the market. If the US Fed raises rates again in early December, expect a minor rise in stock prices in December, followed by a 30% drop in the first three months of 2019.

Pot Stocks - The real value of Canopy Growth is about $5 a share, down from the present $42 a share, and the real value of Aurora is about $0.75 a share, down from $8 a share. These companies have no profits, and essentially no international sales. They are a classic bubble.

Brexit - May will be forced to resign, and there will be another referendum - Brexit will lose in a landslide this time. Britain will have to come back to the European Union, cap-in-hand, to get the best deal they can to stay, as now that they have invoked Article 50 of the EU Treaty, they can only stay if all other EU members agree.

BC PR Referendum - The province of British Columbia is having a mail-in referendum on whether they should abandon the first-past-the-post electoral system, and adopt one of three versions of proportional representation. 

There have been two previous such referendums in the last 15 years, but not by mail-in ballot. This referendum will see only 35% - 40% participation by electors, with the winning version of PR will get only about 20% support. The NDP-Green coalition government will assert that this is sufficient support to change the entire electoral system - they will not succeed, and will be largely wiped out in the next election.

Redblacks - The Ottawa Redblacks will beat the Calgary Stampeders in the 106th Grey Cup, 42 - 35.

Cdn Banks - The long term debt of Cdn Banks will be downgraded by Moody's for the third time in three years within the next three months, mostly based on concerns about the levels of personal debt in Canada.

Saudi Arabia - President Trump will be censored by Congress, including Republicans, over his continued support for Salman in the face of evidence of his involvement in the murder of Khashoggi.  This will be the first clear clue to the world that the Republican Party is having second thoughts about Trump - a process that started with Manafort's flip. 

North Korea/Iran - Expect another missile launch and another nuclear test within the next three months, making a shambles of the Trump peace process. Expect serious internal revolts in North Korea as that system of repression finally starts to unravel. Also expect very significant civil unrest to erupt in Iran within three months, with the government losing control of whole districts of the country. 

Trudeau - He will be both Time Magazine's "Person Of The Year", and People Magazine's "Sexiest Man Alive" for 2018. He will reveal that he dyes his hair.