When Perjury is Evidence

I was going to review Trump's attempts to get the Nov 3 vote overturned in American courts, to illustrate how utterly empty are his claims that the election was stolen. As noted in the video below, Trump's lawyers have had two successes and thirty-three failures so far.

In fact, this YouTube video beat me to it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_get06-tgo

As may be seen here, Trump's lawyers received a mass of affidavits and were able to conclude that many of them were false. They set these aside and then went ahead and submitted the remaining affidavits that they suspected were fraudulent but that they could not absolutely prove were false, as the evidence they needed to put the election in Arizona into question. It should be clear that they did this as they had absolutely no other evidence to support their case.

This is the standard of proof that has been offered by Trump's lawyers...

Evidence that is suspicious but that counsel cannot absolutely prove is false - in spite of very real suspicions based on the rejection of similar evidence from the same sources - is good evidence of the facts asserted in the said evidence.

Except that it isn't.  

Lawyers cannot knowingly submit evidence to a court that they reasonably suspect is false. These lawyers will face sanction by their governing bodies.  

There is no doubt that, with 50 different electoral processes in the USA, there were likely technical and other glitches in the Nov 3 vote. 

Nonetheless, Trump has no case for overturning this election, anywhere.

 

Is Biden Alive?

He won!  

Now he looks like he is 90 years old!

This is David Bowie in The Hunger...

Notice the similarities?

It seems clear that Biden one of The Undead!

What will he look like in Four More Years!?

Trump Coup?

The ballots have been cast. Trump is on the road to Loserville.

Or is he?

As noted here, with his tax returns going to a Grand Jury in NYC, he faces arrest after he is no longer president for a range of malfeasance. But he will continue to be the President until the third week of January.

By alleging fraud, Trump has set the stage for what could amount to an attempted coup...using the United States Government that he will control for the next two and a half months to overturn the election.

Barr will be busy, as long as he is not fired.  Will the US also military be busy?

State of Emergency, anyone?

Say Hello To President Biden - Maybe

It seems like Donald Trump has an impossible task. He is far enough behind Joe Biden in public opinion polls in key battleground states in the United States that it seems impossible that he can win the presidential election on November 3, 2020.

In fact, Trump barely won in 2016. His margin of victory was razor-thin in Pennsylvania (0.8%), Florida (1%), Michigan (0.2%) and Wisconsin (0.8%). Biden now leads in all of these states, as well as in North Carolina and Arizona.

The numbers seem clear. All Biden has to do to become the next president is win his home state, plus one of any of the above-mentioned states. Absent a massive last-week surprise that badly cuts into his support, this seems sure to happen.

Trump and his foreign allies are working on such a surprise. Giuliani has "discovered" e-mails from a laptop that Biden's son apparently left at a computer repair shop some time ago, and has release these e-mails for all to see. 

The FBI is investigating. It is important to note that no one is alleging that anyone committed a crime here. This is 100% spin. The source of this leak will eventually be revealed. If the true source is Russian hackers, the former mayor of New York will have some explaining to do.

Donald Trump would not be the President of the United States if Hillary Clinton had run a competent campaign in 2016. Trump ran a very good campaign four years ago, but hers was substandard to say the least. Trump didn't really win so much as she lost.

Biden is running a normal, standard political campaign. In such a situation, a political opportunist like Trump simply should not be able to win.

Regardless of the polls, this will be much closer than people think, largely owing to vote suppression tactics by Republicans, especially in Florida. 

Prediction...Biden will win the Electoral College by 10 to 20 votes.

 

Masked Trump

Trump has COVID-19.  

I do hope and pray that he and those around him who also caught this disease get well.

Trump left hospital for a short while yesterday to wave at people who have shown up at the Walter Reed Medical Centre to support him. I think this may be about the second time we have seen Trump wearing a mask for more than a spilt second.

If you looked closely, I could swear that you could also see blood dripping from his hands as he waved.  

He knew this was a killer disease in February...there is a recording of him actually saying so. He played it down for months.

How many people have become sick and died after going to his rallies? 

How many people followed his lead and did not wear masks, and later became sick and died?

We will never know. We do know that over 200,000 Americans are dead - the highest death toll from this disease on Earth.

We also know Donald Trump is definitely wearing a mask now. He is doing what he does best...he's looking out for Number One.

He will be fine. He is getting the best medical care in the world.

Presidential Debate RUMBLE

Wow! That was pathetically intriguing!

Who won?

Trump claimed for MONTHS that Biden was an ambling, mindless, doddering old Alzheimer's patient, dancing at the end of some magic strings pulled by AOC.   

Verdict - the allegation is total Bull Shit.

But it is worse for Trump...

The President has a problem. His doctor was concerned enough about his cognitive abilities to give him an impromptu test to make sure he was not terminally befuddled. Trump later noted that he "aced" the test...as he has no doubt aced everything he has ever done.

But the world toke note. His opponents started tracking his gaffes. They have been waiting to unload...and now we get this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMtfAySJWJo

And this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT1ndQagBLI

Trump is about to start wearing the same label that he tried to paste on Biden regarding "cognitive abilities". I have to wonder whether, when he is charged with a range of tax-related offences after he is no longer president, will he claim mental deficiency in order to try to stay out of the slammer?

Trump would not disavow White Nationalism in the debate. This will be the centrepiece of attack ads for the next four weeks - the man is a closet Nazi sympathizer.

Ads, like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5aM6W2HR_E

Trump thinks going racist will tap into a silent racist White majority. 

But America has changed since 1968 - there is no such majority anymore. America is a more decent place now than the caricature of the place that exists in the recesses of this bizarre man's befuddled mind.

"Stand back, and stand by..." = Bye Bye.

.

 

Will Trump Win? No...

I covered this in May...time to revisit the theory of Professor Allan Lichtman who has successfully predicted the last nine US presidential elections.  

Lichtman's model is simple - if any six of these questions are seen as False, the sitting president will lose. 

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Let's look again to see if Trump will be re-elected according to this model. I'll note changes in RED.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

The Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives - False

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.

There are no serious competitors to Trump, however, some Republicans have organized media campaigns against him which is unprecedented - True/False

Change to False. The opposition to Trump from well-organized Republicans, such as those behind the Lincoln Project, is likely more significant than having someone run against him to be the nominee.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Trump is the president - True 

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

There is no third party or independent challenger of note - True

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

The economy will be in recession - False

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

The growth is above the mean for the two previous terms - True...however, the effects of COVID 19 may mask this entirely...a weaker than normal indicator.  

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

There have been major policy changes - True

8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.

The George Lloyd's murder may result in sustained unrest, but we will not know for months - True

Change to False - There is continuing social unrest in many places in the United States. This will explode if Trump and the Republicans ram through a new Supreme Court nominee in the weeks before the election. 

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

The entire administration has been a scandal - impeachment will hurt Trump here - False

10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

The foreign policy pursued by Trump has seen no major failures - True

11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Trump has launched no wars but renewing NAFTA was a major foreign policy success, as was the recent peace deal in the Middle East - True

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Trump is a hero to tens of millions/a vagabond to tens of millions - no American president has ever worked so hard to divide his country - True/False

Change to True - Trump is adored by his supporters. Still, the level of hatred is matched by his opponents - a weaker than normal indicator.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Biden has charisma - False

The totals...

True - 7 (2 are weak)
False - 6

My review of Lichtman's model suggests that Trump will lose the next presidential election.