Monday, 9 October 2023

HAMAS and ISRAEL

UPDATE!  This is evolving!

This is worth a look...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Egipqa0ZhUk

Questions...

1. Are the hostages even in Gaza now?  It makes sense for Hamas to move them to their allies outside of Gaza, where the Israelis can't get to them.

2. Did the Israeli security service know about this, but chose to let it happen so that they can have an excuse to deal with Hamas once and for all, consistent with preferences of the very right wing Israeli government?  The Israelis are the best in the world at thwarting this kind of thing.  Is it believable that they were this incompetent?

3. Will the Left supporters of Gaza and the Palestinians in the West eat their words of support for the violence - blaming all of it on Israel - when they find out what is likely happening to those many attractive young women who Hamas chose to take captive rather than kill?  Isn't it obvious what is happening to them?  In the minds of these people, who are likely on the cutting edge of women's rights, is sexual violence against women actually OK, just as long as they are Jews?  

Who else thought that?

4. What does Israel intend after it evicts Hamas from Gaza?  Palestinians are being encouraged to flee to the border with Egypt, or to actually go to Egypt to avoid the bloodshed.  Does Israel intend to stay in Gaza and to annex the territory after effectively evicting the population?  

Sides are coalescing....









Monday, 7 August 2023

The Charges Against Trump - Can You Say "Witch Hunt"?

Trump has been charged on three separate occasions now. 

The first charges relate to misstatement of business expenses in corporate books concerning paying off hookers, with those expenses amounting to some hundreds of thousands of dollars. 

The second set of charges relates to the misappropriation and illegal storage and sharing of government secret and top secret information, including charges related to intentionally thwarting attempts to retrieve that information on the part of the government. 

The third set of charges are: i) conspiracy to violate civil rights; ii) conspiracy to defraud the government; iii) the corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding; and iv) conspiracy to carry out such obstruction. 

Let me deal with each of these in turn. 

Leveling charges against anyone related to the misstatement of a few hundred thousand dollars in the business records of a corporation that does millions of dollars worth of business each year is total bullshit. The normal course of action is to simply ask the company to properly record these expenses, and pay any associated taxes.  This is an obvious witch hunt.

The second set of charges are more serious, but we know that Joe Biden and Mike Pence also illegally and intentionally retained and improperly stored at least tens of secret and top secret documents. While the aspect of intentionally interfering with attempts to retrieve this information makes what Trump did different from the other two, unless the Department of Justice was going to charge the other two gentlemen with having committed the same crimes as Trump, they should not have laid any of these charges.

This is because the aspect of intentionally thwarting attempts to retrieve the information probably only matters if the charges of illegally retaining the information go ahead first. They should not have gone ahead as Trump deserved the same treatment as the other two men. The fact that Biden and Pence cooperated in returning the documents means nothing, as cooperating with the cops after you have been nabbed goes to sentencing after you have been convicted, not to whether you will be charged in the first place. Trump deserved the same "light touch" treatment from the cops as Biden and Pence here, and he did not get it. 

The third set of charges are shocking, not because of what they are, but because of what they are not. In short, Trump has not been charged with sedition or conspiracy to commit sedition.  

If the Department of Justice does not have enough evidence to charge him with these crimes - "sedition" and related conspiracy to commit sedition are what claiming that January 6th was a "coup" are all about - then they should have pursued only Trump's allies here, and not charged him with anything.  As it is, he has been charged with a "sub-plot" of charges that say just about nothing regarding what he actually did and planned on January 6, 2021. 

Trump has much to answer for regarding his business dealings; the secret and top secret documents that he retained; and especially regarding what he was up to on January 6th. The charges that he faces regarding all three of these issues point at irrelevancies; they point to unequal treatment compared to similarly situated individuals like Biden and Pence; and they literally scream that he insulated himself from the plotters around January 6th so well that the Department of Justice does not have enough evidence to pursue the only charges that matters here, which are potential charges related to sedition.

In light of the above, Trump is poised to make the various Department of Justice and other officials who are pursuing him look foolish.  

What happens in Georgia could be a different matter... 

We shall see.











Friday, 9 September 2022

Biden On Speed

Joe Biden is acting like he is 49, not 79.

Here is his speech to the Democratic National Convention on September 8, 2022....

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-president-biden-deliver-remarks-at-democratic-national-committee-reception

Biden did not miss a single step while delivering this speech over about 25 minutes. He delivered the speech without notes or a teleprompter.  

This contrasts markedly with his many missteps, hesitations and inexplicable confusions displayed in speech after speech and interview after interview over the last few years; confusions and missteps so serious as to put his competency as president and future as a presidential candidate in 2024 into very serious question. With this latest speech, it is clear that something has changed. Has Biden started taking uppers? Is he napping a few times a day, and before he addresses the Nation? He certainly appears to have gone all out to prepare for this speech, and it worked.

Biden has also changed his tactics. Previously, he had been trying to unify legislators, driving both Democrats and Republicans to support bi-partisan legislation. While he has previously been attacking Trump and what he calls "MAGA Republicans" for years, he ramped things up very significantly with a rather ill-advised speech in Pennsylvania last week. He took a less aggressive approach in the speech noted above yesterday, where he again strove to exploit a wedge between the politics of normal Democrats, Independents and Republicans, and the MAGA Republicans. 

Biden now clearly sees an opportunity for his party to actually win the mid-term elections in November, which would be unprecedented for a president in his first term when the legislature usually flips away from the party of the president to the one in opposition. He is trying to take advantage of the efforts of people like Liz Chaney who has declared war on the Trump wing of the Republican Party, and to seek to mobilize female voters who are upset with the overturning of Roe v Wade. If he can mobilize Democrats, Independents and normal Republicans against MAGA Republicans, the Democrats have a very good chance of holding onto the House of Representatives and Senate in November. 

And looking forward to November, the Republicans now have a very significant tactical problem. Usually the party in opposition runs against what the party in office has done while in office, and succeeds as it is easier to run against something than it is to run for something. In succeeding in reversing Roe v Wade, and with some Republicans proclaiming that they will also go after same sex marriage and even Social Security, the Republicans have handed the Democrats something to run against, in spite of the fact that they actually control Congress and the Presidency. 

The days when Republicans could raise bogeymen such as trans-friendly toilets and other socially-liberal issues in attacking Democrats may be over now, largely because of what the Republicans themselves have said and done. Add in the existential issue related to democracy itself, and what Biden calls normal politics versus what the MAGA Republicans stand for, and there is a very good chance that the Republicans may not succeed in taking the House of Representatives and the Senate in November.

These are not normal times. Biden senses this, and has moved aggressively to take advantage of what may be an historic opportunity to avoid a flipped legislature in November. He may even be taking naps before he makes his speeches, which could be bad news for people like Donald Trump.

P.S. The week that Biden made his ill-advised speech, Trump aggressively demanded that he immediately be returned to office as President of the United States. This demand seemed to have come out of nowhere. As noted here before, Trump wants to be president again to avoid criminal prosecution, as a siting president cannot be charged with a crime while he is in office. These two events happening in the same week got me thinking...have both men been advised that charges are pending against Trump with the Department of Justice advising Biden, and Trump's lawyers advising him, causing both men to seek to move the bar forward as a result? 

We shall see...





Sunday, 7 August 2022

Why China's Zero COVID Policy?

The Chinese real estate bubble is bursting! 

Millions of people are at risk of losing all of their personal wealth, as it is normal for citizens to put their entire life savings into real estate in that country. In fact, 70% of all wealth in China is held in the form of homes and condos - usually safe bets that are about to go bust.

These people are getting organized. They are demonstrating daily across the country against real estate developers and banks, even in the face of viscous police suppression. 

Beyond that, up to 300 real estate developments have seen prospective home owners stop paying their mortgages until they get assurances that their homes will actually get built, or they get their money back. Note - they are "prospective" as buying a home in China and taking on a mortgage means buying a home that will only be built at some point in the future. As in, millions of people have put down their entire life savings and are paying mortgages on properties that don't actually exist.

This movement is spreading rapidly, and is risking the political control of the country by the Chinese Communist Party.

Enter...a Zero COVID policy.

The CCP sees everything through a political lens. One purpose of this Zero COVID policy is most assuredly to shut down the ability of citizens to organize and demonstrate against anyone - banks, developers, or local governments - as a result of the collapsing real estate bubble. 

The Zero COVID policy is enforced by the police and even by the army, including the use of armoured vehicles. If the goal is to keep the populace under wraps, this policy should do the trick. Every time the CCP or its banker and developer buddies face a serious problem in the way of a demonstration or a protest, the CCP will simply declare that a single COVID case has been found in the city in question and shut it down.

One city, one protest; one COVID patient, no problem!

But wait. May there be one small problem with this plan? 

Do you think any police officers or military personnel have bought prospective houses and have also lost their life savings?  

Many a dictatorship has ended when the cops and army decided to abandon repression and side with the people instead.

Stay tuned...











Friday, 1 July 2022

PDAC Stock Pics!

I went to the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention in Toronto in early June. The convention was very busy, and there were many good companies on offer - many of them clearly grabbed all the cash they could while money was cheap. Good for them.

I found a number of companies that meet the requirements that I laid out for for stock picking at the convention. Here are the requirements:

Money 

These are small exploration companies - without money, they are dead. The companies that I pick therefore have to have enough money to meet their stated strategic objectives. One of my pics does not...I'll tell you why I'll be buying some of their shares later in the summer.

Geography

I will not invest in companies that are exploring in places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Kenya. I have been burned on investments in countries like those far too often. Until they clean up their act, they will not see a penny of mine - as if anyone in these places cares about my investments! For me to invest, the country where the exploration is taking place must have a stellar reputation. All of the companies below are exploring in Canada.

Drilling

Many small exploration companies go on and on about their intentions to drill some day, or about great past drill results. Good for them, but explorers need to explore! Unless the companies have an actual active or immediately pending drill program, they don't pass my test.

Shares

I don't like companies that have more than 100 million shares out because good news has to claw through too many shares in order for the share price to appreciate enough to matter. This is the weakest indicator - if a company meets the other tests and has even 200 million shares out, I may buy if the drilling looks good enough and they have loads of cash. In fact, some of my pics do have above 100 million shares out. 

Gold!

I only invest in Gold explorers that are looking for Gold where there is Gold! This may sounds nuts, but I won't invest in companies that are not exploring near old Gold mines or old Gold finds. where they are virtually guaranteed to find Gold. Some of my pics are drilling near, not old mines or proven ore bodies, but near their own previous Gold finds, which works for me.

The list...company names with stock symbols.

TRU Precious Metals Corp - TRU.V

Delta Resources - DLTA.V

Troilus - TLG.TSX (Possible Buy-Out Target)

Galway Metals - GWM.V

Banyan Gold Corp - BYN.V

Cassiar Gold - GLDC.V (This company has a mill that generates revenue to pay for drilling)

Moneta Gold - ME.TSX (Possible Buy-Out Target)

Northstar Gold Corp - NSG.CSE 

Sixty North Gold - SXTY.CSE 

This last company does not meet the tests. It is planning to have a mill and mine up and running in 2023, processing up to 100 tonnes of ore a day. They have a permit. 

What they don't have is money - a search of their financials shows that they have a whopping $51,000!  Their stock is trading at $0,04 a share! 

This is a huge long shot, but if they get cash and do what they plan to do, assuming even 0.75 ounces per tonne (consistent with ore in other mines in the area), at 100 tonnes per day they will be producing 7.5 ounces a day meaning a revenue of about $13,500 a day at today's Gold prices. That is $4 million in revenue per year, if we assume 300 days of operations per year. I think this works out to $0.45 a share with a PE of 30, if you assume 60% of their revenue is profit. A ten bagger! I'll buy a couple of hundred dollars worth of this stock...there is a reason why this is called "gambling".

DUE YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE! WE (ME) SEEK SAFE HARBOUR!









Friday, 24 June 2022

Roe v Wade - Lost Opportunity for Unity

The United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade this morning.

Here is what you may not know.

1. The Actual Decision.

Roe v Wade did not grant an absolute right to abortion in The United States of America. The Wiki page actually summarizes the decision very well...

During the first trimester, governments could not regulate abortion at all, except to require that abortions be performed by a licensed physician. 

During the second trimester, governments could regulate the abortion procedure, but only for the purpose of protecting maternal health and not for protecting fetal life. 

After viability (which includes the third trimester of pregnancy and the last few weeks of the second trimester), abortions could be regulated and even prohibited, but only if the laws provided exceptions for abortions necessary to save the "life" or "health" of the mother.

The United States Supreme Court had an opportunity to not overturn Roe v Wade, but to confirm it today. In reversing that decision, they made a terrible mistake.

Enforcing Roe v Wade could have involved overturning a later decision called Planned Parenthood v Casey that abandoned the trimester distinctions in Roe v Wade, and opened up abortion to any point in a woman's pregnancy. While that would have limited access to abortion in the USA, confirming Roe v Wade could also have provided a balanced position between the two solitudes in the United States; between those who see abortion as the hallmark of freedom and women's rights, and those who see it as murder. 

More specifically, had the Supreme Court chosen to confirm a right to abortion in the first trimester; limited ability of states to restrict abortion in the second trimester; and supported an outright ban in the third trimester except in situations of risks to the health of a woman, incest or rape, they could have set up a situation where both sides could claim a victory of sorts in this fifty-year culture war - those supporting abortion could have seen access confirmed in the first trimester and in a more limited way in the second trimester, and those opposed to it would see access disappear in the third trimester. With the court having made clear that there would be no outright winner here, a relaxation of the tensions in that country could have set in over time.

Instead, five justices of the Supreme Court overturned the entire decision. This situation may rip the United States apart, meaning what may be the most aggressive and even violent congressional elections in a century this November. The Court may have set in train a new series of events that could have profound implications for national unity in the USA. 

2. Bork Triumphant. 

Roe v Wade made no sense. This decision found a right to privacy containing a right to abortion in the United States Constitution that isn't written anywhere. The arguments for its repeal have been obvious for anyone who bothered to use their brain since the day the decision was rendered. 

How bad was this decision? 

When I was in university, Roe v Wade was the sole subject of a final test in a course on logic. Students were asked to just read and comment on the decision. The right answer was that this decision made no sense from a logical and reasonable perspective because you can't find rights in a document where there is absolutely no mention of those same rights. 

The most prominent proponent of the repeal of this decision and the need to resort to the literal wording in the United States Constitution was probably Robert Bork. He called what the court did in Roe v Wade "Judicial Imperialism" as he thought it showed a tendency on the part of the court to make up or find rights in the constitution that were not there, simply because they suited the court's policy preferences and not the original intent of the framers of the US Constitution, which he though should be the basis of all interpretation. 

Bork's nomination to be a justice of the court in 1987 was rejected by Congress because of his view on judicial intervention versus original intent. Translation - it was obvious to Congress that he would have voted to repeal Roe v Wade, so he was rejected.

He didn't hide his intentions. When standing for confirmation, he actually said this to the committee tasked with approving his elevation to the highest judicial office in the land..."I am convinced, as I think most legal scholars are, that Roe v. Wade is, itself, an unconstitutional decision, a serious and wholly unjustifiable judicial usurpation of state legislative authority," 

And so, Bork never sat as a justice of the Supreme Court. But please compare his brutally honest assessment re Roe v Wade when he was questioned by the committee on the subject under oath, with the disgusting lies spewed by the five sitting Conservative justices of the court who, when asked if they "respect precedent" - as in, would they uphold Roe v Wade which was judicial precedent at the time - all said that they would. 

They lied...he did not. Bork stands redeemed today, not only for his theory of judicial interpretation, but more so for his refusal to lie to Congress under oath in aid of his personal and political ambitions.

3. The Left's Missed Opportunity and The Future of Gay Marriage. 

The Left in the USA has had fifty years to move forward an amendment to the Bill of Rights that would confirm a right to privacy and abortion in the United States Constitution. Had they done so, no Supreme Court could not have done anything about it, as even someone putting forward an "original intent" argument would have had to conclude that such a right does exist.

Instead of securing the right as an amendment, the those who favour abortion have relied for almost fifty years on the US Supreme Court to protect this right. Today, the Supreme Court laid bare what, as noted above, has been obvious since the day that Roe v Wade was rendered back in 1973; this decision was very vulnerable to being reversed some day.

Going forward, those who favour abortion on demand will likely try to get back to the court with other cobbled-together rationales for a right to abortion, including the right to equal treatment under the law.  They will likely argue that restricting a woman's right to abortion renders them unequal to men, so a right to abortion must be supported. Similar arguments were made regarding the right to gay marriage in the USA, where homosexual couples argued that denying them the right marry rendered them unequal to those who could marry, namely heterosexual couples.

No one knows how this Supreme Court would rule should such arguments be brought forward. However, if the Conservatives on this court are bold enough to reverse a fifty year old decision like Roe v Wade after promising under oath to Congress to not do so, one would think that Obergefell v Hodges, which is the case which legalized gay marriage only in America in 2015, is also be under very serious threat.

4. The Culture War is Full On.

I think this Conservative court sees itself as engaged in a counter attack in a fifty year long culture war.  If so, this is a turning point in the history of the United States of America where the Left has largely been ascendant for the last few generations, but the Right is now able to strike back.

Other countries had thirty-years wars and hundred-years wars over differences concerning royal successions and religious beliefs. The results laid those countries low for decades. And so, we may see something similar in the near future of America. 









Thursday, 23 June 2022

Time for WW3?

Do I mention the hitherto unmentionable? 

It is now obvious that NATO would crush Russia in a conventional war. Their air force would be gone in a week. Their navy would be gone in a day. Their army would be overwhelmed shortly after that. 

Is it Gulf of Tonkin time? 

Does NATO get Finland and Sweden on side, let the Ukrainians weaken the Russians even more, then just roll over their borders?

You have to know some military industrial complex think-tank types in the USA are thinking exactly this...




Cue the war-justifying propaganda...

Banzai!