2018 Predictions, Revisited

How did I do? Here are the results from last year's predictions...

Fearless Predictions 2018!

Having missed on just about every prediction for 2017, it is time to try, try again!

Sports:

Baseball: The Blue Jays win the World Series, beating the Chicago Cubs in 6. 

Wrong....really, really wrong.

Note - this is conditional on the Blue Jays keeping Donaldson; trading TU-Low and Martin; and hiring Arrieta, and Navarro. They also need average help in the outfield and infield. 

Hockey: Hell freezes over and the Toronto Maple Leafs win the first of three consecutive Stanley Cups. They will beat LA Kings, who will surge in the second half of the season. People from Toronto become insufferable.

Wrong.

Basketball: The Toronto Raptors will make the playoffs, will win the East, but will lose to the Warriors in the NBA Championship.

Wrong - they made the playoffs, but lost to Cleveland in the second round.

NFL Football: Pittsburgh Steelers! 

Wrong.

CFL Football: Calgary Stampeders, beating the RedBlacks.

OMG!  I was right!!!!

MLS: TFC.

Wrong.

Olympic Hockey: Canada will win with its Spengler Cup team.

Wrong - we came third.

Politics:

Ontario: Progressive Conservative minority government; NDP in Opposition; Wynne on board of directors of Ontario Hydro.

Close - PC Majority government.

BC: Minority government will fall, leading to an NDP majority. Electoral reform referendum will fail.

OMG! Minority government stays, but the electoral reform referendum on proportional representation did fail! Two right!

US Congressional Elections: Democrats barely take the Senate (51 Dem/47 Rep/2 Ind), but not the House of Representatives. Candidates from neither the Republicans or Democrats will do better than at any time since before the Civil War. 

Wrong - complete reverse of what happened!

Pre-Prediction!!! - The 2020 Presidential campaign will be a real four way race. 1. Traditional Republican; 2. Tea Party Wingnut; 3. Clinton Democrat (who will be Clinton herself running for the female vote with her daughter); and, 4. Sanders Socialist. The Sanders Socialist will win as the Millennials show up in droves to overturn the five-decade rule of the Boomer Generation.

TBD.

Trump: Impeached by Congress in Spring, 2018 – before the Congressional Elections - after his son and son-in-law are charged with Conspiracy against the USA.

Wrong - amazing he is still in power...the wealthy in the USA know a friend when they see one.

Putin: Will be re-elected...again and again.

OMG! I almost didn't see that one coming!  Three right!

Economics:

Interest Rates: Will be increased 2 x in USA and Canada. As a direct result…

Close - raised 3X in the USA.

Housing: Toronto prices down 15%; Canada prices down 10%, by June, 2018. 

Wrong - Bursting Bubble delayed; market is slowing.

Markets: Will experience a steep 20% drop in first three months, followed by a partial recovery for the rest of the year. Will end the year down 10%. 

Wrong, but Close. Markets down 10% in first few months, then recovered to new heights, and down 20% at year end. OK, I'll give myself that one - Four Right!

Gold: Will hit $1,400 an ounce by June 1, 2018, and end the year well above $1,300.  

Wrong- ended lower after hitting $1,280.

Note - The bubble that has moved from Japanese real estate in the 1980s; to the Asian economies by the mid-1990s; to the IT sector in the late 1990s; to US housing, housing markets elsewhere, and equity markets in the mid 2000's; and now into just about everything courtesy of the lowest interest rates in human history, will finally start to move to Gold.

Bitcoin: Will collapse as nation states assert that it is a haven for criminals, and shut down exchanges/outlaw its use. Reality - there is no way that the world's central banks will allow a competitor like this to survive, unless they control it.

Right! Number Five!

Europe: Will be rocked by anti-austerity/labour market reform demonstrations in Greece, Spain and France. Greece will default, triggering a crisis that will see it prepare to leave the Eurozone. Spain will endure a second independence declaration by the Catalans. Brexit will be reversed following a new referendum in the UK after the minority Conservative Government falls. In spite of all this, Europe will continue to be a bastion of sanity and civility.

Mostly Wrong, except for demonstrations in France.

NAFTA: The US President will threaten, but back away from a pledge to cancel the trade agreement. The negotiations will go on...and on...and on.

Somewhat right - no cancellation, and new deal done!

World:

Syria: Will be at peace via an accord brokered by Russia and Iran. Up to 200,000 Syrians will head home from Europe. The West will swallow its pride, and participate in a rebuilding plan.

Wrong - hopefully this year.

North Korea: Kim Jong-Un and his family will be assassinated in a military coup when a North Korean missile lands near Los Angeles, and the USA begins targeted airstrikes in retaliation. Peace talks will follow, aimed at unifying the Korean peninsula.

Wrong.

Saudi Arabia: Will experience an attempted coup by hardliners. It will fail, and many of these people will be exposed as ISIS sympathizers and financiers....

Wrong - but some weird stuff there anyways!

ISIS: Will launch a coordinated attack on cities throughout the world at same time and day to demonstrate that it is still very much alive – an ISIS version of the Tet Offensive. It will decline rapidly after this.

Wrong - ISIS caliphate is no more.

China: Will be rocked by demonstrations nation-wide as housing prices and stock markets there start to collapse, threatening the deal that the Communists have made with the people of that country - wealth in return for political subservience. The resulting repression will shock the world.

Wrong - Maybe this year?

Culture:

Music: Punk!

Wrong - Too bad!

Summary - I think that is about 5.5 Right!

Happy New Year!