Predictions, 2019 Edition!

It is that time again!

Fearless Predictions!

  

Sports:

Stanley Cup – Toronto Maple Leafs will lose to the Nashville Predators in 6 games. 

World Series – Red Sox; they are just too strong.

Super Bowl – Patriots, for the last time for 20 years.

Blue Jays – Will go 70 - 92, with the worst ERA in the league. Shapiro and Atkins will be fired.

Montreal – Now that the Rays’ new stadium quest in Florida is at an end, Montreal will be advised that it will get the Rays as the new Expos, contingent on buying out the Rays’ existing lease and building a new stadium. With a federal election pending, Trudeau will backstop the new stadium with federal funds. The stadium will finally cost $2.8 Billion, up from an originally-estimated price of $400 Million - the Montreal Mob will have a new “happy time.” The Expos will “play ball” again in Montreal in 2021 in the new “Trudeau Dome”.

Markets/Stocks:

DOW – Will drop to 12,000 by Spring, 2019.

S&P 500 – Will drop to 1,200 by Spring, 2019.

Pot Stocks – WEED will be at $5 a share by the anniversary of legalization in Canada. Almost all of these stocks will be down dramatically, and there will be a take-over and merger frenzy. Some of the name-brand companies will be bankrupt by end of 2019. A few will be exposed as criminal Ponzi schemes, with links to organized crime and with their managers/operators having milked them for all available cash.

GOLD! – Will be $1,500 by Spring, 2019.

Cdn Banks – Expect a third debt downgrade in just over three years by Moody’s by Spring, 2019.

International Personalities:

Trump – In face of impeachment talk by senior Republicans following final Mueller indictments of his son and son-in-law, will resign for “medical reasons” by Spring, 2019. President Pence will immediately pardon him of any and all crimes he may have ever committed, as well as pardoning all of his relatives.

Hillary Clinton – Will announce a third run at the US Presidency for 2020.

Julian Assange – Will be in a US prison by Spring, 2019.  WikiLeaks will respond with a deluge of exceptionally embarrassing information about the private lives of many world leaders. Expect at least five world leaders to resign in disgrace shortly after his arrest…is Mr. Macron among them?

Theresa May – Will be out office following a devastating electoral defeat for her Conservative Party that sees them reduced to third party status by Spring, 2019.  

Rolling Stones – Will tour again!

International Politics:

North Korea – Will explode another nuclear weapon in 2019.  The USA, Russia and China will set aside differences and agree on an embargo that forces North Korea to actually give up its nuclear program, which it will do when the USA undertakes to never put nukes in South Korea again. 

Nuclear Weapons – The USA, China and Russia tentatively agree to a new short-range nuclear weapons treaty. Pakistan and India enter talks to limit their arsenals and put them under international supervision, partially agreeing to come under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel will remain outside.

Iran – Will be convulsed by mass demonstrations – viciously suppressed.

China - Will be convulsed by mass demonstrations – viciously suppressed.

Syria – Will hammer out a peace deal with the help of Russia and Turkey, resulting in the end of the civil war. Over 200,000 people will return home.

Yemen – Will hammer out a peace deal as massive pressure is brought to bear on Saudi Arabia by the UN and that country’s allies. Aid will flow in saving hundreds of thousands of lives.

Brexit – Will be stopped following its mass rejection in a referendum, 61% to 39%, in late March, 2019. The Liberal Democrats will take power in the subsequent election, as Conservative Euro-sceptics move to UKIP following the defeat of Brexit, thereby starving the Conservatives of support; and moderate Labourites stay home in the face of Corbin’s extremism, thereby starving Labour of support. The Lib Dems will run a successful minority government for two years, then will win a majority in 2021 primarily at the expense of the Conservatives, who will not win government again for a generation.

Italy – Will have a referendum on Italexit, which will approve leaving the EU by a wide majority. Italy will remain in the Europe Union, but will get a better budget deal.

Europe – Will see Far Right-Wing parties make significant electoral gains in 2019 (Netherlands and perhaps Belgium.)

Economics: 

Recession – Expect a 3% pull-back in GDP in the Western countries, and an average of over 10% unemployment by the end of the year. Many international banking institutions will be on the brink of failure. Many US multi-national corporations will be on the ropes – especially GE, GM and Ford.

Canadian Housing – Price drop of 15% in Toronto and Vancouver by the end of the year….with prices accelerating down as the year ends.

Oil – Prices will hit $30 a barrel.

China – Expect recession and strikes and local revolts against the Communist government – viciously suppressed.

Bailout – The US Fed will hand $2 Trillion to US Banks to make sure of “liquidity” in the system. Bank CEOs will double their bonuses.

Bail-In – Banks in selected countries – maybe Cyprus again and maybe smaller European countries - will be allowed to convert the deposits of individuals and corporations to their own use as they face financial ruin in the face of recession, as a form of “bail-in”. This will later be tried in Germany and China, and will lead to mass protests and civil unrest.  Bankers and leaders worldwide will stop the practice, and will go back to just printing money to solve economic crises, also known as “Bail-in by Devaluation.”

QE/Buy-Backs – The US Fed will buy $1 trillion in US stocks in order to “support employment” – in spite of the fact that buying equities does not do this. By the end of 2019, the US Fed will be the largest holder of US equities in the world. US markets will still fall about 50%.