Friday, 29 November 2019
Tuesday, 26 November 2019
Trump Impeachment Watch #2
It looks bad for Trump.
Regardless of what Fox and selected Republicans are saying, the evidence that has been led thus far shows that Trump clearly sought a Quid Pro Quo from Ukraine - as in, "Investigate the Bidens, and you get $400 Million in military assistance that I held back." Doing this is a crime.
In any normal era, he would resign. But this is not any normal era, not only because Trump has dramatically lowered ethical expectations in that country (e.g. This man actually engaged in witness tampering via Twitter while a witness was on the stand!!!), but also because the Democrats do not come to the investigations with clean hands.
The shenanigans with the Clintons, as well as some questionable activities by Obama's White House, especially around what may have been the use of official FBI and other state apparatus to investigate political opponents, may have disqualified these people in the minds of too many Americans.
There will be no impeachment, no matter what the investigations digs up. I think Americans will discount what Democrats say and find - even if they find crimes - and they will want to reserve judgement on Trump to themselves and to deal with him in 2020.
Trump's approval rating is now well below 45%. I think he will lose (Note - his hard core base is not 35%...it is more like 12%.)
More news...
With Bloomberg in the race, Clinton has just unofficially retired - there is no way she will come in now. He is a VERY strong candidate who has been planning for this for years - he is starting at 1% support, but I would put Bloomberg's odds of winning the nomination and becoming the president at 65%. Waiting until the first round of candidates were exposed and damaged was very smart.
And...Bloomberg not only has WAY more money than Trump, while Trump is great at using social media, Bloomberg actually owns the media.
Regardless of what Fox and selected Republicans are saying, the evidence that has been led thus far shows that Trump clearly sought a Quid Pro Quo from Ukraine - as in, "Investigate the Bidens, and you get $400 Million in military assistance that I held back." Doing this is a crime.
In any normal era, he would resign. But this is not any normal era, not only because Trump has dramatically lowered ethical expectations in that country (e.g. This man actually engaged in witness tampering via Twitter while a witness was on the stand!!!), but also because the Democrats do not come to the investigations with clean hands.
The shenanigans with the Clintons, as well as some questionable activities by Obama's White House, especially around what may have been the use of official FBI and other state apparatus to investigate political opponents, may have disqualified these people in the minds of too many Americans.
There will be no impeachment, no matter what the investigations digs up. I think Americans will discount what Democrats say and find - even if they find crimes - and they will want to reserve judgement on Trump to themselves and to deal with him in 2020.
Trump's approval rating is now well below 45%. I think he will lose (Note - his hard core base is not 35%...it is more like 12%.)
More news...
With Bloomberg in the race, Clinton has just unofficially retired - there is no way she will come in now. He is a VERY strong candidate who has been planning for this for years - he is starting at 1% support, but I would put Bloomberg's odds of winning the nomination and becoming the president at 65%. Waiting until the first round of candidates were exposed and damaged was very smart.
And...Bloomberg not only has WAY more money than Trump, while Trump is great at using social media, Bloomberg actually owns the media.
Saturday, 23 November 2019
Canada - The Coming Austerity
Ladies and gentlemen, the free ride is over!
Canada’s Government will be entering an era of severe austerity within the next two years, courtesy of what will be the worst recession since the Great Depression. Here is how this may be addressed by Canada's government so as to remain solvent as effectively and painlessly as possible – all numbers are rough estimates.
The Federal Civil Service
1. Retire those who can already retire on full pensions, and do not replace them.
Upwards of 1,500 people now in the public service are able to walk out the door with a full pension. They should be retired asap as a result of an austerity program, without being replaced. The public service has about 285,000 employees. Cutting 1,500 immediately would represent a modest ½ of one percent cut.
2. Offer early retirement with no penalty to any person who is within 3 years of retirement.
The experience during the Chretien years was that many, many people will take early retirement without penalty if this option is offered. If 75% of eligible public servants took this offer, with well over 10,000 retiring every year, this should reduce the rolls of the public service by over 22,000 employees. Taken with the retirement of persons who are already able to retire on a full pension, this would reduce the federal workforce by about 7.5%. There should be a freeze, in the sense that these employees will not be replaced, resulting in a 7.5% reduction in federal salaries.
3. End Bonuses to Executives.
Bonuses for executives in the federal civil service are awarded almost as of right – I think 98% of them get this pay. I suggest that bonuses do not improve performance to any noticeable degree. In a recession, it will be next to impossible for senior officials to move from the public service to the private sector. Eliminate their bonuses, and pay them like everyone else – they aren’t going anywhere. This should save the federal government about $75 Million a year.
4. Give everyone two mandatory days off each month without pay.
This would be like the Rae Days from the early 1990’s in Ontario. Rather than fire people, with all the related economic disruptions that follow, the provincial government forced employees to take two days a month off without pay. This should temporarily cut federal salaries by another 6%. Taken with the cuts above, this will reduce federal employee expenditures by over 13.5%.
Savings from adjustments to the Civil Service - the federal government pays just under $20 Billion a year to employees in the base public service. A cut of over 13.5% could save over $2 - $2.5 Billion a year.
Taxation
1. De-index Income Tax Brackets, no longer raising them in step with the Rate of Inflation.
This is how Canada got into the Black in the 1990s – by de-indexing income tax brackets, as people earned more money they paid more tax as they were caught by the higher brackets, which remained static. A 5% net increase in revenues from shifts upwards into higher brackets would generate over $15 Billion more in revenue per year. This could happen in as little as three years.
2. Tax Reverse Mortgages.
There are Billions in reverse mortgages now – many Boomers are cashing out on their real estate legacy to live a bit better in their declining years. They have paid zero tax on the increase in the value of the equity in their homes. If they want to treat this as income, not as an asset, it should be taxed as such. A 30% tax on all distributions from reverse mortgages above a basic amount could net $1 - $2 Billion a year, rising every year.
3. Higher GST on Luxury Goods.
If a person can afford a Lamborghini or a multi-million dollar home in the middle of a recession, they can be asked to pay a special excise tax on it. A special 10% GST on luxury goods, including homes above a certain value, could net $500 Million - $1 Billion.
4. CUT the GST by One Penny on All Other Goods.
This will cost the treasury $6 Billion a year, but will be needed to stimulate growth. In short, raise the taxes on the wealthy, but cut the taxes of everyone else, in such a way that makes spending less expensive.
5. CUT the EI Premiums by 10%.
This will cost the treasury $2 Billion a year, but will make hiring less expensive. Taxing jobs in a recession is stupid.
6. Tax The Firing of People.
Apply a special tax on redundancies – if a business fires people outside of a bankruptcy, it should have to pay a special tax. It should be blunt and brutal – they could have to pay $10,000 for every person they let go.
The point is not to raise revenue, but to have businesses keep people working even at reduced hours rather than have mass layoffs. This is about avoiding costs – it could save billions of dollars in EI and welfare payments, and help avoid mass disruptions in the real estate market etc., as these people will still mostly be able to make ends meet. This is Rae Days for the private sector.
Revenues changes from Tax Initiatives – about $10 Billion more a year after a few years.
Other Spending Initiatives
1. Transfer to Provinces.
DO NOT cuts transfers to the provinces and territories for medical and social services, but limit the rate of growth to the rate of inflation.
The number one initiative for returning to fiscal health is the de-indexation of income taxes, not outright spending cuts. Lowering the rate of growth to the rate of inflation will flat line expenditures in real terms – this is about limiting spending growth, not cuts.
2. Tie Foreign Aid Closer to Trade.
Canada spends about $10 Billion a year on foreign aid. If the countries that receive this aid will not enter into free trade agreements with Canada, then Canada needs to reduce or eliminate this funding. Free trade will allow for economic expansion going forward. This could save $1 Billion a year.
3. Build all Military Equipment Here.
If we are going to spend tens of billions on military equipment, it should mostly be built and the money spent in Canada. If a company bids for a contract, and at least 75% of the money will not go to Canadian businesses, they should lose - we likely need to say "No" to the F-35. This will buttress local economies on the East and West coasts for shipping; in Montreal for aircraft; and in Ontario for vehicles.
4. Cut Business Subsidies....Slowly.
Canada spends about $15 Billion a year in subsidies to business – direct payments, tax deferrals etc. This should be cut by 40% over five years to wean business off this support and force business to compete. This will eventually net the government about $6 Billion a year.
5. Flat Line all “Discretionary” Spending for Two Years.
All other federal spending should be frozen for two years. This could reduce future expenditures by about $10 Billion within a few years.
Total net fiscal change for the federal coffers would amount to about $30 - $32 Billion a year by Year Three, while at the same time reducing some taxes so as to stimulate growth.
This is going to be awful. We need to tackle this head on...
CAVEAT!!!
There is one fairly disastrous possibility that may throw even a vigorous response to a new recession onto the dust pile of history...
1. Debt Downgrade.
We are awash in debt. Canada's federal debt is about $735 Billion, or 30.5% of GDP. On its own, this is not a problem, and many political commentators note that as long as the debt-to-GDP ratio on the National Debt is falling, all is well.
But it is completely misleading to count only federal debt when discussing public debt in Canada as the provinces also float bonds. Ontario, for example, is the most indebted sub-national government on planet Earth.
Adding provincial debt Canada's total public debt is a whopping $1,237 Billion and the debt to GDP ratio is about 90%. Again, this may not be overly worrisome as many developed countries have much higher debt to GDP ratios.
However, when you count total debt owed by Canadians, this starts to look very bad.
Canadians owe, on average, well over $52,000 per person in total external debt (owed to foreigners), both public and private. This is 115% of our GDP.
Besides having a massive public debt, Canadians are also the most indebted persons on Earth in terms of their overall personal borrowing (think credit cards and mortgages).
Given this, Canada is VERY vulnerable to a significant public debt downgrade, because debt rating agencies will not look at on the federal debt or even total public debt, but they will look at total net debt, and the ability of Canadians to finance ALL of their debts.
A debt downgrade would imperil our ability to keep borrowing money, as it would force us to borrow at higher rates of interest. With unprecedented levels of personal debt, and very high public debt, the reality is that Canadians may find that they simply cannot finance all of this debt at the some time while economic activity is contracting during a recession.
The option that has been used by countries in these circumstances in the past has been to stop paying the capital on bonds as they come due, and to only pay the interest. But this desperate measure would effectively block us out of world borrowing markets, forcing us to live within what would be declining means in a recession. This would strike a hammer-blow Canadian standard of living, which has been relying on borrowed money for generations now.
Let's hope that we can get finances back in order in time to convince bond rating agencies that we know what we are doing, and that we are still able to finance our obligations.
CAVEAT!!!
There is one fairly disastrous possibility that may throw even a vigorous response to a new recession onto the dust pile of history...
1. Debt Downgrade.
We are awash in debt. Canada's federal debt is about $735 Billion, or 30.5% of GDP. On its own, this is not a problem, and many political commentators note that as long as the debt-to-GDP ratio on the National Debt is falling, all is well.
But it is completely misleading to count only federal debt when discussing public debt in Canada as the provinces also float bonds. Ontario, for example, is the most indebted sub-national government on planet Earth.
Adding provincial debt Canada's total public debt is a whopping $1,237 Billion and the debt to GDP ratio is about 90%. Again, this may not be overly worrisome as many developed countries have much higher debt to GDP ratios.
However, when you count total debt owed by Canadians, this starts to look very bad.
Canadians owe, on average, well over $52,000 per person in total external debt (owed to foreigners), both public and private. This is 115% of our GDP.
Besides having a massive public debt, Canadians are also the most indebted persons on Earth in terms of their overall personal borrowing (think credit cards and mortgages).
Given this, Canada is VERY vulnerable to a significant public debt downgrade, because debt rating agencies will not look at on the federal debt or even total public debt, but they will look at total net debt, and the ability of Canadians to finance ALL of their debts.
A debt downgrade would imperil our ability to keep borrowing money, as it would force us to borrow at higher rates of interest. With unprecedented levels of personal debt, and very high public debt, the reality is that Canadians may find that they simply cannot finance all of this debt at the some time while economic activity is contracting during a recession.
The option that has been used by countries in these circumstances in the past has been to stop paying the capital on bonds as they come due, and to only pay the interest. But this desperate measure would effectively block us out of world borrowing markets, forcing us to live within what would be declining means in a recession. This would strike a hammer-blow Canadian standard of living, which has been relying on borrowed money for generations now.
Let's hope that we can get finances back in order in time to convince bond rating agencies that we know what we are doing, and that we are still able to finance our obligations.
Sunday, 17 November 2019
RBH
My father - Ronald Bartram Heale or RBH - passed away 5 years ago today. He was 75 years of age - he had survived five heart attacks, and had beaten a double diagnosis of fourth-stage Lymphoma and Leukaemia. He died from a stroke, which was brought on by complications owing to the treatments he received to beat his cancers.
My father was the type of person who lived life without fear. He was a relentless risk-taker, especially in the field of business and investing.
During his life as an investor and business person, he owned and/or invested in - in no particular order - Gold and Gold Exploration; Uranium; Silver and Silver Exploration; Bottled Water; Oil and Oil Exploration; Going Long on the General Market; Natural Gas and Natural Gas Exploration; Copper Exploration; Shorting the General Market, the US Dollar; Vision Devices for the nearly blind; Submarines for tourists; a Newspaper Business; the Back of a 707 Airliner; three Hotels in Northern Ontario; Biotechnology; two Bars in Toronto; and Commercial and Residential Development Land.
His children still own a parcel of the Residential Land he bought in 1973. His grandchildren - my children - are proud owners of shares in a Submarine Company - given to them by my aunt who was convinced by my dad to buy some shares in that company long ago - as a way to remember their grandpa!
As an investor, he had tremendous successes, and disastrous failures. His insight could be shockingly brilliant at times.
For example, the Friday before the stock market crash on Monday, October 19, 1987, he asked his broker to sell everything he had, and short the general market. His broker talked him out of it - had he done what he asked, my father would have become a multimillionaire overnight.
When I asked what he thought of his broker when trading ended on that memorable Monday - when it was clear that his broker had cost him literally millions of dollars by changing his mind - my father noted to me that his broker had done his job. Shorting the general market is a crazy call in normal times, and the broker's job was to keep him sane. He said that it wasn't his broker's fault that the world collapsed the very next trading day. He kept that man as his broker for years thereafter.
In spite of his brilliance and the high degree of care he always took before investing in anything, he was also occasionally victimized by some of the sleazy fu&*s who make their living bilking good people of their money through a range of illegal activities. One such fraud was called Betacom.
This was the "Vision Devices for the nearly blind" investment noted above. In short, this company relied on financial statements that were entirely fraudulent showing that it was a profitable company with millions of dollars in revenues. In fact, it had no sales at all. The enterprise eventually collapsed in bankruptcy, with the small investors losing everything....I was out a cool $10,000 on that one.
A few years later, I later discovered that the CEO and CFO of Betacom had both been convicted of fraud, and I asked RBH if he wanted me to bring a civil case against these people try to recover at least some of our investments (I am a lawyer and former civil litigator. I would have LOVED to have brought such a case and to have put these fu^7ing a-holes on the stand for the most uncomfortable cross-examination any humans have ever gone through...)
My father's response was an important life lesson for me.
He said, in effect, "We move on...always press forward, leaving your losses behind, looking ahead to the victories to come. Doing otherwise will eat you alive."
Even with his losses, which were in the six figures, he also expressed genuine concern that the CEO and CFO, who he had met many times, were probably doing worse than we were, and that I should just leave them alone.
RBH was loved by his many, many friends. He was a man who ALWAYS stood by people he considered to be his friends, no matter what, even if by any objective standard they had ripped him off (...these were not the only guys to do something like this to him...) He always remembered that the other guy had a story to tell, and you never know what the real story is - and that friendship trumps money every single time.
And so, I set aside plans to sue the CEO and CFO, and noted that he was a far bigger and better man than I was in those difficult circumstances.
Oh yes...here is an Obituary written by the friend he bought a newspaper with back in the early 1970's.
https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/columns/atkins/ron-heale-the-wildest-accountant-i-ever-knew-370928
What of his victories?
One such victory was Linear Gold - a small exploration company, as it was in 2003. This is a longish story - please bear with me.
Linear Gold was exploring for Gold in Mexico. At one point in late 2003, we were all eagerly awaiting the results of Drill Hole 9. From previous drill results, we strongly suspected that we had a winner and that the results would be excellent, driving the share price much higher.
I was in Toronto at a conference that November, having arrived at my hotel on a Sunday evening. When I checked in, I was asked for my Canadian Automotive Association card. I advised them that I was not a member of the CAA, and that was that...I went to my room and settled in.
On Tuesday at about noon, I called home for messages, and learned that my father had had a heart attack, and that he was in Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto. As I was actually in Toronto, I rushed to his bedside to be there when he came to from what had been a significant ordeal.
Recall that we had been awaiting the results of Drill Hole 9. In the days leading up to this, my dad and I were debating whether or not to sell prior to the results. I was up 400%, and he was up about 800%. I wanted to take some profits, but wanted to let his winner run.
On the Tuesday morning, and before I called home for messages, I called my broker and sold half my position. The stock stopped trading literally minutes after that, pending news - the results were in and were about to be announced.
I made it to Sunnybrook and I was at my dad's beside when he woke up.
I watched as he slowly opened his eyes and looked at me, recognized who I was, raised his hand and pointed his finger at me and asked...."Did you sell your Linear?!"
I told him that I had dumped half my position, and that it had just stopped trading pending news.
My dad shook his head, looked me again, and said, "You fathead...!!" That was his favourite term of endearment for me.
He was right.
I had purchased Linear Gold at $1.20 or so share, while he bought it at $0.60 a share. I sold at $5.00 before the news came out...my dad sold between $9.00 and $11.00 as the stock rocketed after the results proved to be very positive. Linear would eventually prove up 1.7 Million ounces of Gold on the surface...the Gold is still there, but that is another story.
"Let your winners run..." My cousin Robbie - the greatest investor I know - has since told me the same thing.
Oh...one last thing.
While I was not a member of CAA, my dad was. We are both named "Ronald Heale", albeit with different middle names. The hotel asked me for my CAA card because they thought I was my dad - he was staying at the same hotel that I had booked into that night.
So, while I was settling into the hotel that Sunday night in November of 2003, unbeknownst to me, my father was having a heart attack five floors above me. He would not see a doctor until late Monday.
Besides investing in the stock market and in businesses, my father invested in his family and in his friends. He was tireless in his support of my mom and his children - one son and four daughters - even working every single day to help one of my sisters with a difficult divorce while he was suffering the ravages of cancer. This is reflected in the Obituary below which he asked me to write before he died, and which he approved.
He was also tremendously generous, and believed in sharing whatever he had with others who were less fortunate.
He sponsored immigrants from China in the 1970's when people were fleeing the Cultural Revolution.
He supported charitable undertakings as a member of the Lion's Club for over 35 years.
And one year, he was even Santa Claus!
Every year, the Lions Club had a toy drive for impoverished families in our town. One Christmas morning, when the time came to deliver presents the Lions discovered that one family - a mom and three young children - had moved away without leaving a forwarding address.
RBH spent the next seven hours on Christmas Day talking to this lady's former neighbors and family member to track them down, eventually finding them living a one-hour drive away.
He made the drive, and he was able to knock on this lady's door and delivered the presents at about 2:00 pm Christmas Day, no doubt to an utterly shocked mom, and three delighted kids who had received nothing for Christmas that morning.
Is there any doubt that even now these people will forever remember my dad as the real Santa!
Here is his Obituary. It still reads well five years later.
http://yourlifemoments.ca/sitepages/obituary.asp?oid=841604
.
I have shown this before...here is my dad at 18, and about to launch one of the most interesting lives ever lived.
Here are two of his nine grandchildren - my children, Annie and Henry - visiting their grandpa...what a shame he did not live longer to get to know them, and for them to get to know him.
RIP RBH...you are missed every single day.
My father was the type of person who lived life without fear. He was a relentless risk-taker, especially in the field of business and investing.
During his life as an investor and business person, he owned and/or invested in - in no particular order - Gold and Gold Exploration; Uranium; Silver and Silver Exploration; Bottled Water; Oil and Oil Exploration; Going Long on the General Market; Natural Gas and Natural Gas Exploration; Copper Exploration; Shorting the General Market, the US Dollar; Vision Devices for the nearly blind; Submarines for tourists; a Newspaper Business; the Back of a 707 Airliner; three Hotels in Northern Ontario; Biotechnology; two Bars in Toronto; and Commercial and Residential Development Land.
His children still own a parcel of the Residential Land he bought in 1973. His grandchildren - my children - are proud owners of shares in a Submarine Company - given to them by my aunt who was convinced by my dad to buy some shares in that company long ago - as a way to remember their grandpa!
As an investor, he had tremendous successes, and disastrous failures. His insight could be shockingly brilliant at times.
For example, the Friday before the stock market crash on Monday, October 19, 1987, he asked his broker to sell everything he had, and short the general market. His broker talked him out of it - had he done what he asked, my father would have become a multimillionaire overnight.
When I asked what he thought of his broker when trading ended on that memorable Monday - when it was clear that his broker had cost him literally millions of dollars by changing his mind - my father noted to me that his broker had done his job. Shorting the general market is a crazy call in normal times, and the broker's job was to keep him sane. He said that it wasn't his broker's fault that the world collapsed the very next trading day. He kept that man as his broker for years thereafter.
In spite of his brilliance and the high degree of care he always took before investing in anything, he was also occasionally victimized by some of the sleazy fu&*s who make their living bilking good people of their money through a range of illegal activities. One such fraud was called Betacom.
This was the "Vision Devices for the nearly blind" investment noted above. In short, this company relied on financial statements that were entirely fraudulent showing that it was a profitable company with millions of dollars in revenues. In fact, it had no sales at all. The enterprise eventually collapsed in bankruptcy, with the small investors losing everything....I was out a cool $10,000 on that one.
A few years later, I later discovered that the CEO and CFO of Betacom had both been convicted of fraud, and I asked RBH if he wanted me to bring a civil case against these people try to recover at least some of our investments (I am a lawyer and former civil litigator. I would have LOVED to have brought such a case and to have put these fu^7ing a-holes on the stand for the most uncomfortable cross-examination any humans have ever gone through...)
My father's response was an important life lesson for me.
He said, in effect, "We move on...always press forward, leaving your losses behind, looking ahead to the victories to come. Doing otherwise will eat you alive."
Even with his losses, which were in the six figures, he also expressed genuine concern that the CEO and CFO, who he had met many times, were probably doing worse than we were, and that I should just leave them alone.
RBH was loved by his many, many friends. He was a man who ALWAYS stood by people he considered to be his friends, no matter what, even if by any objective standard they had ripped him off (...these were not the only guys to do something like this to him...) He always remembered that the other guy had a story to tell, and you never know what the real story is - and that friendship trumps money every single time.
And so, I set aside plans to sue the CEO and CFO, and noted that he was a far bigger and better man than I was in those difficult circumstances.
Oh yes...here is an Obituary written by the friend he bought a newspaper with back in the early 1970's.
https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/columns/atkins/ron-heale-the-wildest-accountant-i-ever-knew-370928
What of his victories?
One such victory was Linear Gold - a small exploration company, as it was in 2003. This is a longish story - please bear with me.
Linear Gold was exploring for Gold in Mexico. At one point in late 2003, we were all eagerly awaiting the results of Drill Hole 9. From previous drill results, we strongly suspected that we had a winner and that the results would be excellent, driving the share price much higher.
I was in Toronto at a conference that November, having arrived at my hotel on a Sunday evening. When I checked in, I was asked for my Canadian Automotive Association card. I advised them that I was not a member of the CAA, and that was that...I went to my room and settled in.
On Tuesday at about noon, I called home for messages, and learned that my father had had a heart attack, and that he was in Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto. As I was actually in Toronto, I rushed to his bedside to be there when he came to from what had been a significant ordeal.
Recall that we had been awaiting the results of Drill Hole 9. In the days leading up to this, my dad and I were debating whether or not to sell prior to the results. I was up 400%, and he was up about 800%. I wanted to take some profits, but wanted to let his winner run.
On the Tuesday morning, and before I called home for messages, I called my broker and sold half my position. The stock stopped trading literally minutes after that, pending news - the results were in and were about to be announced.
I made it to Sunnybrook and I was at my dad's beside when he woke up.
I watched as he slowly opened his eyes and looked at me, recognized who I was, raised his hand and pointed his finger at me and asked...."Did you sell your Linear?!"
I told him that I had dumped half my position, and that it had just stopped trading pending news.
My dad shook his head, looked me again, and said, "You fathead...!!" That was his favourite term of endearment for me.
He was right.
I had purchased Linear Gold at $1.20 or so share, while he bought it at $0.60 a share. I sold at $5.00 before the news came out...my dad sold between $9.00 and $11.00 as the stock rocketed after the results proved to be very positive. Linear would eventually prove up 1.7 Million ounces of Gold on the surface...the Gold is still there, but that is another story.
"Let your winners run..." My cousin Robbie - the greatest investor I know - has since told me the same thing.
Oh...one last thing.
While I was not a member of CAA, my dad was. We are both named "Ronald Heale", albeit with different middle names. The hotel asked me for my CAA card because they thought I was my dad - he was staying at the same hotel that I had booked into that night.
So, while I was settling into the hotel that Sunday night in November of 2003, unbeknownst to me, my father was having a heart attack five floors above me. He would not see a doctor until late Monday.
Besides investing in the stock market and in businesses, my father invested in his family and in his friends. He was tireless in his support of my mom and his children - one son and four daughters - even working every single day to help one of my sisters with a difficult divorce while he was suffering the ravages of cancer. This is reflected in the Obituary below which he asked me to write before he died, and which he approved.
He was also tremendously generous, and believed in sharing whatever he had with others who were less fortunate.
He sponsored immigrants from China in the 1970's when people were fleeing the Cultural Revolution.
He supported charitable undertakings as a member of the Lion's Club for over 35 years.
And one year, he was even Santa Claus!
Every year, the Lions Club had a toy drive for impoverished families in our town. One Christmas morning, when the time came to deliver presents the Lions discovered that one family - a mom and three young children - had moved away without leaving a forwarding address.
RBH spent the next seven hours on Christmas Day talking to this lady's former neighbors and family member to track them down, eventually finding them living a one-hour drive away.
He made the drive, and he was able to knock on this lady's door and delivered the presents at about 2:00 pm Christmas Day, no doubt to an utterly shocked mom, and three delighted kids who had received nothing for Christmas that morning.
Is there any doubt that even now these people will forever remember my dad as the real Santa!
Here is his Obituary. It still reads well five years later.
http://yourlifemoments.ca/sitepages/obituary.asp?oid=841604
.
I have shown this before...here is my dad at 18, and about to launch one of the most interesting lives ever lived.
Here are two of his nine grandchildren - my children, Annie and Henry - visiting their grandpa...what a shame he did not live longer to get to know them, and for them to get to know him.
RIP RBH...you are missed every single day.
Saturday, 16 November 2019
The CCP is PEOPLE!
See here...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/15/chinese-government-may-have-falsified-organ-donation-numbers-study-says
A quote..."In 2015, China publicly promised it would no longer source organs from executed prisoners, previously almost its sole source."
So as late as four years ago, they admitted that they harvested executed humans for their parts -livers, kidneys,etc, which were sold for profit.
Some background for you...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Gong_practitioners_in_China
A quote..."Reports on systematic organ harvesting from Falun Gong prisoners first emerged in 2006, though the practice is thought by some to have started six years earlier. Several researchers—most notably Canadian human rights lawyer David Matas, former parliamentarian David Kilgour and investigative journalist Ethan Gutmann—estimate that tens of thousands of Falun Gong prisoners of conscience have been killed to supply a lucrative trade in human organs and cadavers and that these abuses may be ongoing."
This is real folks. We don't even have a name for this crime.
Should we have ANY relationship with a country that imprisons and kills humans to harvest their parts for profit?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/15/chinese-government-may-have-falsified-organ-donation-numbers-study-says
A quote..."In 2015, China publicly promised it would no longer source organs from executed prisoners, previously almost its sole source."
So as late as four years ago, they admitted that they harvested executed humans for their parts -livers, kidneys,etc, which were sold for profit.
Some background for you...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Gong_practitioners_in_China
A quote..."Reports on systematic organ harvesting from Falun Gong prisoners first emerged in 2006, though the practice is thought by some to have started six years earlier. Several researchers—most notably Canadian human rights lawyer David Matas, former parliamentarian David Kilgour and investigative journalist Ethan Gutmann—estimate that tens of thousands of Falun Gong prisoners of conscience have been killed to supply a lucrative trade in human organs and cadavers and that these abuses may be ongoing."
This is real folks. We don't even have a name for this crime.
Should we have ANY relationship with a country that imprisons and kills humans to harvest their parts for profit?
Saturday, 9 November 2019
Trump Impeachment Watch #1
There is simply no question that there was a quid pro quo, but this may not been as advertised by Trump's political opponents...please read on...
First this – the generally agreed-upon background…Trump withheld $400 Million in military aid from Ukraine in July.
The fact that aid was withheld is only part of the background to the "quid pro quo" scenario. In fact, that Trump held this back to gain leverage is obvious, after all, it was Trump who famously wrote, "Leverage, don't make deals without it: enhance." But stay with me...this may be a bit of a diversion from what was really going on.
Here is Trump’s own transcript of his call with the President of Ukraine the day after Mueller appeared before Congress, effectively ending that enquiry.
In their July 25th call, the two men discussed the recent victory in Ukraine’s presidential election by Zelenskyy.
The new president then raised the issue of the need for US military aid. Part of the context for this request is that both men would have know was that Trump had just postponed this type of aid. At one point, this is what Zelenskyy said...
"I would also like to thank you for your great support in the area of defense. We are ready to continue to cooperate for the next steps specifically we are almost. ready to buy more Javelins from the United States for defense purposes."
Trump’s immediate response was this…
The President: “I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it. I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike... I guess you have one of your wealthy people... The server, they say Ukraine has it.”
After Zelenskyy agreed, Trump noted this in his next interjection…
“There's a lot of talk about Biden's son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it...”
So, the clear reading of this transcript comes down to, not "please release the military aid you just froze", but "we want Javelins", to which the President immediately said "do me a favour and investigate my political opponents".
As noted above, Trump tried to gain leverage by holding back the $400 Million in funds before the call, but at that point he did not actually know what his "opponent", the President of Ukraine, wanted. It was only when he heard his request for Javelins during the phone call that Trump realized what his actual leverage was, and at precisely that point Trump, the negotiator, went into action and immediately played his hand - as in, "if you want Javelins, I want a favour in the form of an investigation of my political opponents."
There is no other way to read this exchange. Again, Trump's opponents are off the mark here - there is no overt mention of restoring the postponed aid in this transcript. What Zelenskyy was concerned about is "javelins", not the $400 Million in aid.
As noted above, Trump tried to gain leverage by holding back the $400 Million in funds before the call, but at that point he did not actually know what his "opponent", the President of Ukraine, wanted. It was only when he heard his request for Javelins during the phone call that Trump realized what his actual leverage was, and at precisely that point Trump, the negotiator, went into action and immediately played his hand - as in, "if you want Javelins, I want a favour in the form of an investigation of my political opponents."
There is no other way to read this exchange. Again, Trump's opponents are off the mark here - there is no overt mention of restoring the postponed aid in this transcript. What Zelenskyy was concerned about is "javelins", not the $400 Million in aid.
And so, what is a Javelin?
It is a state-of-the-art anti-tank missile. It is "fire an forget" - a soldier merely aims it in the direction of a tank, and the missile takes over. See here...
It is a state-of-the-art anti-tank missile. It is "fire an forget" - a soldier merely aims it in the direction of a tank, and the missile takes over. See here...
The more telling background to the quid pro quo than the withholding of $400 Million in aid, is the fact that the Ukrainians received some of these weapons early in Trump's time in office - Obama refused to sell them for fear that they may fall into Russian hands.
Even after being sold to the Ukrainians, the weapons were kept under the watchful eye of the US military, and they were kept in the West of Ukraine, well away from the conflict in the East where there was a chance that they could fall into Russian hands. In fact, the Ukrainians were so delighted to receive these weapons that they even included them in the 2018 Independence Day parade under the previous President Poroshenko.
See here for the background...
No matter who is in office in Ukraine, that country desperately wants advanced-technology weapons to deal with the Russians tanks, especially the one weapon mentioned by Zelenskyy in the July 25th phone call.
Trump had shown that he had no problem cutting aid, and many prognosticators see that as the "stick" that he used to try to coerce Ukraine to investigate his political rivals.
Again, and for reasons noted above, I think this probably is mistaken. Given the past history between Trump and Ukraine regarding these weapons, both men would have to have known precisely what was the real substance of their conversation. (In fact, Trump has just recently approved another sale of Javelins to Ukraine even though he did not get his investigation into Biden...it is not as if he had another option while an impeachment investigation is underway.)
Trump had shown that he had no problem cutting aid, and many prognosticators see that as the "stick" that he used to try to coerce Ukraine to investigate his political rivals.
Again, and for reasons noted above, I think this probably is mistaken. Given the past history between Trump and Ukraine regarding these weapons, both men would have to have known precisely what was the real substance of their conversation. (In fact, Trump has just recently approved another sale of Javelins to Ukraine even though he did not get his investigation into Biden...it is not as if he had another option while an impeachment investigation is underway.)
Asking a foreign government to act against your political opponent as a result of providing approval for a weapons sale is a crime. Fox News and a very few Republicans are spreading The Next Big Lie...”No Quid Pro Quo!” To the extent that they are talking about the withholding of $400 Million in military aid, they may actually have a point - this was never directly addressed in the conversation between the two presidents....the goings-on prior to this conversation are not addressed in this blog.
But the question of the Javelins is a totally different story. Once you understand the recent history related to this weapon and as it related to Trump and Ukraine, it is simply impossible to conclude that this was not a request for a quid pro quo, at least to the extent that it is reflected in the transcript that Trump himself produced. The man is a criminal.
Will Trump be impeached?
Probably not. Trump’s time in office has laid public ethics so low that even fully acknowledged crimes may now be acceptable in pursuit of power...yes, I know Clinton is a criminal as well.
What will the next President get away with?
Wednesday, 6 November 2019
Proportional Representation
Letter sent to the Globe and Mail...likely destined for the dustheap of non-history!
Hello,
Another federal election has come and gone, and we have yet again been treated to a chorus of calls for democratic reform, specifically, for some sort of Proportional Representation or PR.
Before addressing the merits of such a proposal and proposing an alternative, it is worth noting that PR has been rejected by Canadians in referenda every single time it has ever been proposed, either being rejected outright, or, in the case of Prince Edward Island’s referendum in 2016, by not being supported by a sufficient proportion of the electorate to warrant moving ahead with any changes to the existing system. In short, there is no outcry for PR in this country, and there never has been. When asked, Canadians have either said no to whatever form of PR was offered, or they simply did not show up to voice their opinion in sufficient numbers to matter.
I am personally opposed to any form of PR in any form. The key problem with this form of democracy is that parties will send MPs directly to Parliament to represent parties. All systems of PR would make political parties partially sovereign by given them law-making power through their representatives. I think people should be sovereign, not parties.
To be more specific, even if citizens could somehow vote for people on party lists, these party MPs would only represent their respective parties in Parliament, not citizens in general. There would be absolutely no accountability of these people back to citizens, instead, they would be accountable only to their party leader and their party’s executive cadre.
Political parties are not representative organizations. While they try to reflect the political preferences of various citizens, these preferences are put forward to attract votes, not to represent any person's opinion outside of those of party members themselves. I realize that some people prefer this form of “representation by opinion” rather than “representation by population”. I don’t. I am not a member of any party, and no political party represents me in any way shape or form, as is the case for the vast majority of citizens who are not party members.
Parties exist primarily to facilitate control the House Common by mobilizing the MPs so that if they form a majority, or at least a plurality, they may be able to form a government. While the MPs in question are members of parties, they actually represent and are responsible only to their constituents, to whom they must go back every four years to reaffirm that they actually maintain their confidence. At no time do parties themselves become sovereign in our system of government. In Canada, citizens are sovereign, with that sovereignty exercised through their elected representatives.
There is a problem with democracy in Canada. The problem is not that political parties don’t get their fair share of power in elections. The problem is that political parties are so powerful in this country that they effectively undercut the legitimate role of MPs in representing their constituents and being responsible to them. In fact, political parties have become powerful enough to effectively undercut “representative and responsible” government that our forefathers and mothers fought for even before this country was formed.
We need less of political parties in Canada, not more. The way to reduce the power of political parties is to enhance the representation of citizens by their MPs, and the responsibility of those MPs back to citizens. The reforms that could be initiated to do this could include recall, so citizens can dismiss their member of parliament between elections, and an increase in the number of MPs which could dilute party control over those same members.
Beyond that, there have been many recommendations for democratic reform in Canada going all the way back to the Spicer Commission in the early 1990s. There has been precious little done in the way of reform precisely because the political parties that control the House of Commons have not been able to agree on reform, and this is specifically because they will not agree to reforms that do not benefit the parties themselves. Most recently, I suspect that Prime Minister’s Trudeau’s own efforts floundered on the shoals of the interests of his own party, which could not see how it would benefit from the reforms that were proposed three years ago.
While we continue to be held hostage to the political interests of these organizations, there will be no meaningful democratic reform in Canada. To have any progress on this issue, democratic reform has to be taken out of the hands of politicians who are elected in the very same system that they would purport to reform, and who therefore have a massive conflict of interest as any changes would affect them personally. This situation recommends a national referendum wherein the main significant democratic reform proposals that have surfaced in this country in the last 30 years or so could be put to the populace in a vote, and where any reforms receiving a significant majority support (say 55% +, to avoid a Brexit-like situation) would be enacted by Parliament.
The questions in such a referendum could be as follows:
1. Should we have internet voting?
2. Should constituents be able to recall their Members of Parliament?
3. Should voting be mandatory?
4. Should citizens elect their representatives through the use of a ranked ballot?
5. If no candidate in a riding gets more than 50% of the vote, should there be a runoff election between the top two candidates two weeks later?
6. Should Members of Parliament represent no more than an average of 75,000 constituents, thereby expanding the number of MPs?
7. Should citizens have the ability to trigger national referenda?
8. Assuming that the Senate will continue in its "sober second thought" role and not become a competitor to the House of Commons, should Senators be elected in the provinces they represent?
9. Should the yearly stipend to political parties be restored?
10. Should we have fixed election dates?
11. Should political spending by parties between elections be regulated?
It should be noted that there is no question listed above about whether Canada should move to a PR system. The reason is as noted above - we are not freer when political parties gain sovereignty.
I realize that PR exists in some fine countries in the world such as Germany and New Zealand. I don’t live in Germany or New Zealand. I live here, in Canada, the finest country in the world.
Yours,
Arthur Heale
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)