Tuesday 26 November 2019

Trump Impeachment Watch #2

It looks bad for Trump. 

Regardless of what Fox and selected Republicans are saying, the evidence that has been led thus far shows that Trump clearly sought a Quid Pro Quo from Ukraine - as in, "Investigate the Bidens, and you get $400 Million in military assistance that I held back." Doing this is a crime.

In any normal era, he would resign. But this is not any normal era, not only because Trump has dramatically lowered ethical expectations in that country (e.g. This man actually engaged in witness tampering via Twitter while a witness was on the stand!!!), but also because the Democrats do not come to the investigations with clean hands.

The shenanigans with the Clintons, as well as some questionable activities by Obama's White House, especially around what may have been the use of official FBI and other state apparatus to investigate political opponents, may have disqualified these people in the minds of too many Americans.

There will be no impeachment, no matter what the investigations digs up. I think Americans will discount what Democrats say and find - even if they find crimes - and they will want to reserve judgement on Trump to themselves and to deal with him in 2020. 

Trump's approval rating is now well below 45%. I think he will lose (Note - his hard core base is not 35%...it is more like 12%.)

More news...

With Bloomberg in the race, Clinton has just unofficially retired - there is no way she will come in now. He is a VERY strong candidate who has been planning for this for years - he is starting at 1% support, but I would put Bloomberg's odds of winning the nomination and becoming the president at 65%. Waiting until the first round of candidates were exposed and damaged was very smart.

And...Bloomberg not only has WAY more money than Trump, while Trump is great at using social media, Bloomberg actually owns the media.


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