There is simply no question that there was a quid pro quo, but this may not been as advertised by Trump's political opponents...please read on...
First this – the generally agreed-upon background…Trump withheld $400 Million in military aid from Ukraine in July.
The fact that aid was withheld is only part of the background to the "quid pro quo" scenario. In fact, that Trump held this back to gain leverage is obvious, after all, it was Trump who famously wrote, "Leverage, don't make deals without it: enhance." But stay with me...this may be a bit of a diversion from what was really going on.
Here is Trump’s own transcript of his call with the President of Ukraine the day after Mueller appeared before Congress, effectively ending that enquiry.
In their July 25th call, the two men discussed the recent victory in Ukraine’s presidential election by Zelenskyy.
The new president then raised the issue of the need for US military aid. Part of the context for this request is that both men would have know was that Trump had just postponed this type of aid. At one point, this is what Zelenskyy said...
"I would also like to thank you for your great support in the area of defense. We are ready to continue to cooperate for the next steps specifically we are almost. ready to buy more Javelins from the United States for defense purposes."
Trump’s immediate response was this…
The President: “I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it. I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike... I guess you have one of your wealthy people... The server, they say Ukraine has it.”
After Zelenskyy agreed, Trump noted this in his next interjection…
“There's a lot of talk about Biden's son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it...”
So, the clear reading of this transcript comes down to, not "please release the military aid you just froze", but "we want Javelins", to which the President immediately said "do me a favour and investigate my political opponents".
As noted above, Trump tried to gain leverage by holding back the $400 Million in funds before the call, but at that point he did not actually know what his "opponent", the President of Ukraine, wanted. It was only when he heard his request for Javelins during the phone call that Trump realized what his actual leverage was, and at precisely that point Trump, the negotiator, went into action and immediately played his hand - as in, "if you want Javelins, I want a favour in the form of an investigation of my political opponents."
There is no other way to read this exchange. Again, Trump's opponents are off the mark here - there is no overt mention of restoring the postponed aid in this transcript. What Zelenskyy was concerned about is "javelins", not the $400 Million in aid.
As noted above, Trump tried to gain leverage by holding back the $400 Million in funds before the call, but at that point he did not actually know what his "opponent", the President of Ukraine, wanted. It was only when he heard his request for Javelins during the phone call that Trump realized what his actual leverage was, and at precisely that point Trump, the negotiator, went into action and immediately played his hand - as in, "if you want Javelins, I want a favour in the form of an investigation of my political opponents."
There is no other way to read this exchange. Again, Trump's opponents are off the mark here - there is no overt mention of restoring the postponed aid in this transcript. What Zelenskyy was concerned about is "javelins", not the $400 Million in aid.
And so, what is a Javelin?
It is a state-of-the-art anti-tank missile. It is "fire an forget" - a soldier merely aims it in the direction of a tank, and the missile takes over. See here...
It is a state-of-the-art anti-tank missile. It is "fire an forget" - a soldier merely aims it in the direction of a tank, and the missile takes over. See here...
The more telling background to the quid pro quo than the withholding of $400 Million in aid, is the fact that the Ukrainians received some of these weapons early in Trump's time in office - Obama refused to sell them for fear that they may fall into Russian hands.
Even after being sold to the Ukrainians, the weapons were kept under the watchful eye of the US military, and they were kept in the West of Ukraine, well away from the conflict in the East where there was a chance that they could fall into Russian hands. In fact, the Ukrainians were so delighted to receive these weapons that they even included them in the 2018 Independence Day parade under the previous President Poroshenko.
See here for the background...
No matter who is in office in Ukraine, that country desperately wants advanced-technology weapons to deal with the Russians tanks, especially the one weapon mentioned by Zelenskyy in the July 25th phone call.
Trump had shown that he had no problem cutting aid, and many prognosticators see that as the "stick" that he used to try to coerce Ukraine to investigate his political rivals.
Again, and for reasons noted above, I think this probably is mistaken. Given the past history between Trump and Ukraine regarding these weapons, both men would have to have known precisely what was the real substance of their conversation. (In fact, Trump has just recently approved another sale of Javelins to Ukraine even though he did not get his investigation into Biden...it is not as if he had another option while an impeachment investigation is underway.)
Trump had shown that he had no problem cutting aid, and many prognosticators see that as the "stick" that he used to try to coerce Ukraine to investigate his political rivals.
Again, and for reasons noted above, I think this probably is mistaken. Given the past history between Trump and Ukraine regarding these weapons, both men would have to have known precisely what was the real substance of their conversation. (In fact, Trump has just recently approved another sale of Javelins to Ukraine even though he did not get his investigation into Biden...it is not as if he had another option while an impeachment investigation is underway.)
Asking a foreign government to act against your political opponent as a result of providing approval for a weapons sale is a crime. Fox News and a very few Republicans are spreading The Next Big Lie...”No Quid Pro Quo!” To the extent that they are talking about the withholding of $400 Million in military aid, they may actually have a point - this was never directly addressed in the conversation between the two presidents....the goings-on prior to this conversation are not addressed in this blog.
But the question of the Javelins is a totally different story. Once you understand the recent history related to this weapon and as it related to Trump and Ukraine, it is simply impossible to conclude that this was not a request for a quid pro quo, at least to the extent that it is reflected in the transcript that Trump himself produced. The man is a criminal.
Will Trump be impeached?
Probably not. Trump’s time in office has laid public ethics so low that even fully acknowledged crimes may now be acceptable in pursuit of power...yes, I know Clinton is a criminal as well.
What will the next President get away with?
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