Tuesday, 3 March 2026

Understanding Venezuela and Iran

The is a new war on!  

It's the USA and Israel, and likely others versus Iran! 

What is this all about?

The previous American attack on Venezuela resulted in opening up the country to private investment in the oil sector, reversing decades of national control. 

The negotiations with the Iranians likely involve removing the nuclear threat, but also some private ownership and control of Iran's oil reserves. Iran was about to allow what would have amounted to limited joint ventures between private firms and the national oil company, but it would still have banned outright private ownership of Iran's oil. I suspect that this will be lifted once there is a deal in place after the war is over.  

The key here is that the odious Venezuelan regime was left in charge, with some sops to democracy via release of political prisoners etc. The Mullahs will likely be left in charge as well. There is no plan for regime change because they aren't serious about regime change if they can get at the oil. 

This is about colonialism, not freedom.

The wild-card here is Israel which wants to see Iran's regime utterly destroyed. They want the Mullahs gone, so behind the scenes there is likely a debate between those who favour colonization of Iran with the Mullahs in charge - a.k.a. the Americans - and the Israelis who don't care about oil, but who want this existential threat eliminated. The debate will likely end in an all-around agreement on killing as many Iranian leaders as possible, within a defined time frame.  

These wars were and are clearly illegal. Illegal in international law, and illegal in American law. This isn't even debatable. 

Canada's PM Carney has read the room correctly - stick to Canada's previous position against the Iranians getting the Bomb, and say nothing about the illegality, which is consistent with his "end of the world order as we know it" speech in Davos. 

Query - if the Americans and Israelis can do this, why pre tell, could Russia not invade Ukraine, or China not invade Taiwan? 

"Might is Right" and "The Law of the Jungle" and Hobbes' view of "The State of Nature" all rule again. 

Is every small country on the menu?








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